Why Don't We See Recently Drafted Pitchers Throw in Affiliated Games?

Eddie Bane wants a do-over.

A very interesting read, answers some questions and wonderings I've always had regarding pitching draft picks.

Good article that helps us understand a bit better about why so many of the young drafted pitchers aren't put into action sooner. That said, I was hoping for more input or quotes from Nat Ballenberg, the pitching coordinator that was mentioned in the first paragraph. Reading the  rest of the article, I wasn't sure which points were ones that came from Ballenberg or were Jamie's own synopsis. Nevertheless, good stuff!

17 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

So the David Clyde new hire orientation plan is history?

Some guys still proceed thru the plan at an accelerated pace.  Especially if they are thought to have immediate value to the big league team.  Paul Skenes.

The organization has done a great job drafting and identifying talent from young pitchers. Lately it seems like they can get the best stuff out of these young guys, allowing them to move up through the minors league levels quickly. Now if they could just come up with a system or find a way to keep our guys relatively injury free and healthy we'd be all set:)

Thanks for writing this. 

3 hours ago, LambchoP said:

The organization has done a great job drafting and identifying talent from young pitchers. Lately it seems like they can get the best stuff out of these young guys, allowing them to move up through the minors league levels quickly. Now if they could just come up with a system or find a way to keep our guys relatively injury free and healthy we'd be all set:)

The Twins don’t have a higher average of Milb pitching injuries compared to any other organization.  

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Bailey Ober is the only starter the Twins have drafted and developed who has not only made it to the majors, but has also established himself. Aside from that, here are the round 1-5 pitchers selected by the Twins.

Rotation misses
2017 Landon Leach
2017 Blayne Enlow
2017 Charlie Barnes
2018 Cole Sands
2019 Matt Canterino
(Traded away) 2021 Steve Hajjar

Doesn't look good
2023 Tanner Hall
2023 Dylan Questad

Rotation Hopefuls on Track
2020 Marco Raya 
(Traded away) 2021 Chase Petty
2021 Christian MacLeod
2022 Connor Prielipp
2022 Andrew Morris
2023 Charlee Soto

Promising
(Traded away) 2021 Cade Povich

Established
Nobody

Why cherry pick rounds 1-5? 

12 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Clyde was drafted out of high school and went straight to MLB as a starting pitcher. No college ball no MiLb.  High school to MLB starter.

Skenes was drafted out of college after 2-3 yrs there then went through Pirates MiLB system in 1 year to MLB.

Even a college guy to the bigs in one year is accelerated these days. 

10 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Bailey Ober is the only starter the Twins have drafted and developed who has not only made it to the majors, but has also established himself.

Right. I see no evidence that the program as described above is helping to develop pitchers or keep them healthy. I do not believe that affiliated games are uniquely stressful or that protecting pitchers from seeing batters is helpful to their development. They're baseball players, not fighter pilots.

19 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I hear that. The way it was written was a design choice, made with Nat. I think it's safe to think of the article as a summary of the orgs approach at a high level.

Thanks for the clarification. And again, very good article. It always helps us fans to gain more knowledge about how the organization thinks and acts. 

On 11/19/2024 at 2:53 PM, bean5302 said:

You keep using that word... I do not think it means what you think it means.

Cherry picking is intentionally selecting only data set(s) which are beneficial to an argument. I arbitrarily chose rounds 1-5 as it feels like a fair cutoff for upper round selections where you might expect to find good talent. The results would be similar if I chose rounds 1-3 or rounds 1-7 or all rounds, except it's hardly fair to hold late round lottery ticket selections against the front office as failures.

Someone that follows the twins as closely as you is aware of the Twins history of drafting position players early and college pitchers after round 5.  So, why only consider rounds 1-5?  Does it matter which round the player is drafted?  Of course, the round drafted makes absolutely no difference in terms of value once they get here.  Also, it takes no more effort to look at all of the players so why only look at rounds 1-5?  

Why ignore relief pitchers?  There seems to be a consensus on TD that the BP is very important.  Seems like an unbiased assessment would at least mention the BP.

It also does not make sense to ignore unproven players acquired in trade or any other method.  They are equally valuable.  One could even argue these other acquisition methods are crucial to lower revenue teams in accumulating enough talent to contend.  These other acquisition methods are responsible for 31% of 1.5+ WAR players when considering every 90+ win team in the bottom half of revenue since 2000.  Drafted players account for 33%.  The most successful teams, the Guardians and Rays, have produced more WAR from trading for prospects than drafting.  The Guardians ratio is 26% draft and 44% other and the Rays are 32% draft, 40% other.   

I think we can all agree that value does not change based on what round they were drafted or if they were acquired via trade, waiver wire, etc.  If we are going to assess their ability to acquire and develop talent, we should consider all aspects of acquiring talent.  When you look at this particular small subset, it gives the appearance you are choosing data that fits a given narrative.