Final SDI Rankings Point to Improvement Areas for 2025 Twins

[Cody Christie]

Carlos Santana earned a Gold Glove earlier this week, but is headed to free agency. So, where can the Twins make defensive improvements for the 2025 campaign?

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

Defensive metrics have improved greatly over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) developed is the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). 

According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, SDI has been used as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are the final rankings for the 2024 season.

Pitcher (AL Ranking): Bailey Ober 2.2 SDI (t-8th), Pablo López -1.4 SDI (27th)
Minnesota had two Gold Glove finalists last season, López and Sonny Gray, but both players lost to former Twins pitcher José Berríos. López took a step back defensively this year, as only seven AL pitchers finished with a lower SDI total. Ober moved into the top 10 among AL pitchers and was close to moving into the top five. He is a large man on the mound, and he made solid improvements regarding his fielding, partially by understanding better how to use his length in covering the area around and in front of the mound. Joe Ryan ranked well according to SDI earlier in the year, but fell off the rankings due to his injury. 

Catcher (AL Ranking): Christian Vázquez 4.0 SDI (7th), Ryan Jeffers -4.7 SDI (15th)
Vázquez had been in the top four at the last SDI update in August. but fell off in the season’s final weeks. He still finished in the top seven due to good framing (84th percentile) and Fielding Run Value (78th percentile). Jeffers continues to struggle defensively with his pitch framing, which is only part of the problem. Four AL catchers finished with a lower SDI total than Jeffers. Both catchers are projected to be back next season, so the Twins will need to get more value from Jeffers.  

First Base (AL Ranking): Carlos Santana 9.5 SDI (1st)
Santana earned the Gold Glove at first base and was one of the top defenders in the entire AL. His 9.5 SDI ranked eighth among all AL defenders, and only two infielders had a higher SDI. Santana earned a chance to earn the Platinum Glove, but will likely finish behind Cleveland’s Andrés Giménez, who had the league’s highest SDI total. Still, Santana had an elite season at first base. Minnesota will likely get less value from first base, even if the team re-signs him, because of his age. 

Second Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Qualified
There were two dominant second basemen in the AL this season and a lot of mediocrity. Giménez and Marcus Semien compiled two of the AL’s top SDI totals. Minnesota had three players play 40 games or more at second, including Edouard Julien, Kyle Farmer, and Willi Castro. Julien had a -4 OAA, Farmer posted a 3 OAA, and Castro finished with a 0 OAA. With Farmer departing, second base is a clear spot for the Twins to improve for 2025. Brooks Lee might be the one to step into the void.

Third Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Qualified
Minnesota had five players log over 140 innings at third base this season. José Miranda led the way with 73 games started, but he produced -7 OAA. Royce Lewis was the team’s Opening Day starter at the hot corner but got injured in the team’s first game. He missed a chunk of the season and ended up 2 OAA despite some throwing issues in the middle of the season. It will be interesting to see where Minnesota goes with third base next season. Minnesota’s best infield alignment might be Lee at third, Carlos Correa at shortstop, and Lewis at second base, but Lewis didn't like playing the keystone when asked to slide there in the summer. 

Shortstop (AL Ranking): Willi Castro -5.2 SDI (13th) 
Correa ranked in the top 10 among AL shortstops earlier in the season, but his second-half injury kept him off the final leaderboard. Castro is slightly overmatched at shortstop but was asked to fill in when Correa hit the IL. Somewhat strangely, he produced 3 OAA at short, his highest total at any position. Paul DeJong (-8.8 SDI) is the lone AL shortstop with a lower SDI total than Castro. An entire season of a healthy Correa at shortstop can alter the team’s entire defensive outlook for 2025. 

Left Field (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualified
The Twins used eight players in left field this season, and six players accumulated over 150 innings. Minnesota will likely continue to rotate players through the position in 2025. Trevor Larnach is projected to be the team’s starter, but he was limited at that position this season due to an injury relegating him to DH duties in the second half. Minnesota also has an opportunity to bring in a right-handed corner outfielder to pair with the team’s left-handed sluggers.

Center Field (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualified
Byron Buxton logged over 760 innings in center field for the first time since 2017, when he was the AL’s Platinum Glove winner. In 2024, he was credited with 3 OAA and a 4 Fielding Run Value, ranking in the 74th percentile or higher. Buxton is also entering the offseason healthy for the first time in six seasons, which could help him build the positives from last year. Minnesota will still likely need a backup plan if/when Buxton is unavailable. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. might be in the running for a fourth outfielder role, unless the Twins want to look outside the organization.

Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 0.9 SDI (4th)
Kepler has been known for his defense throughout his Twins tenure, and the team will suffer a drop-off with his replacement next season. Matt Wallner is expected to be the team’s Opening Day starter, and posted a -1 OAA in right field. His arm should be a huge asset, and he's more athletic than his size implies, but there remain rough edges to sand off. As with left field, the team may use internal right-handed hitters to replace Wallner in the lineup when there is a strong lefty on the mound. 

There will be some defensive changes for next season, with two of the team’s best defenders expected to leave in free agency. Minnesota has some internal options to fill those spots on the roster, but they would likely come with worse defensive totals. This is a critical area for the front office to address this winter.

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Are you surprised by any of these defensive rankings? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[DJL44]

I agree that they need to find some players who can field. They especially need to find a second baseman and an outfielder with a good glove. If they want Castro to be that second baseman then they need to find another utility guy.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Well. . . at least we're not the White Sox!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The defensive issues are part of the bigger narrative:

The amount of positional non-quals was, in large part, due to a systemic decision to rotate multiple players through positions.  Injuries played a part, but were not the main reason.  Even the players coming from the minors have been worked at multiple positions.

Comfort level and routine are such a huge part of the human psyche, trying to force so many players all over the place can't be helping their defense or their offense.  This is why guys like Castro are undervalued.  To be able to slide all over the place and still be productive at the plate is not common.

The other issue, as it always seems to do today, falls back to spending on quality players.  Having to constantly juggle players because of offensive matchup limitations results in players never really knowing how to approach each day.  Many will blame Rocco for this, but IMO, he is doing what he can with what he has.  The splits show what they show.

[LambchoP]

Twins need to clean up their defense big time. One way to do that would be to cut back on the platooning and moving guys all over the diamond. Not every player needs to be a super utility guy. Rocco needs to give our guys clear cut roles, naming someone the starter at each position, rotating out occasionally for injuries or for performance. Getting some consistency from one day to the next should help both defensively and offensively.

[tony&rodney]

The information provided in this article suggests that the Twins are going to be below average at catcher (in sum), first base, second base, third base, left field, and right field. If Correa and Buxton are fully healthy, the Twins should have fair defense at shortstop and centerfield. Willi Castro plays all over at varying rates of effectiveness but may be an adequate utility player. That is what I take away from this post.

Last season, when I went to Twins games (and even when I watched on TV) the one thing that struck me, whether the team won or lost, was how slow the Twins players looked in comparison to their opponents. Batted balls that were near routine for an opponent escaped the reach of our Twins players. This forced our pitchers to throw many additional pitches. On the bases, our guys went station to station, did not steal or hit and run, and couldn't even score from second base with two outs a couple of times. The eye told quite a tale of differences between our Twins and their opponents.

Derek Falvey believes the Twins have the players needed to be successful in 2025. His interview at the MLB GM meetings was mostly corporate speak but he did profess his belief that the roster is fine. Most of Twins Daily concurs and is wary of anything other than fringe changes; i.e., don't touch the core. The budget should remain around $130 million, the highest in the AL Central and Falvey hinted at getting "creative" to get the roster in line.

Why am I not feeling optimistic about the 2025 season given the above information? I generally pick the Twins to win the AL Central nearly every year, which I did in 2024 (although with 83-85 wins). What information am I missing?

[The Mad King]

Stop the r/l platooning unless you have no clear cut defensive guy. 

Keep Castro out of the outfield.

Keep Lewis healthy enough to get meaningful reps, he'll get better. 

[jmlease1]

It's interesting evaluating OF with excellent arms defensively. Because teams stop challenging them (mostly) fairly quickly once it's obvious that a guy has a superior arm and so they stop getting those nifty outfield assists. How exactly do they evaluate the number of bases reduced/runs not scored because guys didn't tried to score on a fly ball to right or stretch a single into a double because they knew Wallner or someone like him has a cannon? 

Personally, I would like to see Royce slide to 2B where we don't have to worry about his scattershot arm as much and his quality range would play fine, but if he's not on board with it it'll be a mess. but the time to pull the switch is in the offseason so he can do a little winter work on it and come into spring training mentally and physically ready. That would open up 3B for Brooks Lee, who I think will hit better next season, and will be an excellent 3B defensively.

I feel like Miranda can definitely improve at 1B and will hit enough there if healthy. Again, the time to work on that move is in the offseason. Let him be a primary 1B who will slide over to 3B if needed (but with Lee, Castro, and Lewis ahead of him on the depth chart) but to land there and really be present at one position. he won't be Carlos Santana, but he will hit more.

Health is going to be huge here. Guys who are nicked up, guys who battling through an injury get worse in the field in a hurry.

[stringer bell]

With 13-man position player rosters, players need to move around. Either the non-starters have to be able to fill in at multiple spots or the starting players have to be able to fill different spots. Platooning works in general, but I don’t agree with spending precious bench moves in the fourth, fifth or sixth inning. 

[rv78]

The team is slow for one reason. The FO went whole hog on the HomeRun theory. You don't need speed to trot around the bases after a dinger. Take a look at the prospects that are now on the major league roster. They've tried to make everyone of them a HomeRun hitter. Even Austin Martin, who struggle with the attempt and finally went back to his former ways of just trying to make good contact. When you draft for power, develop for power and ignore speed and defense you end up with the 2024 Twins. Then throw in the lack of confidence by the manager to play players everyday and let them get comfortable playing 1 position you get the 2024 Twins. With a 13 man position player roster, you don't need players to move around. You need 8 guys that can each play 1 position and only 5 that can sub off the bench. A backup catcher, 1 corner utility player, 1 middle infield utility player and 2 bench players for the outfield with 1 of the 5 covering the DH spot unless one of the main 8 fills in there to get a day off in the field. The Twins have a luxury in Castro who can play both infield and outfield. Rocco pretty much uses his players opposite of what he should, moving players into spots they aren't use to playing. Up and down the lineup only to satisfy his analytical matchup that is only good until the opposing team counters that with a different pitcher putting him at a disadvantage by having him pinch hitting too soon. 

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I agree that they need to find some players who can field. They especially need to find a second baseman and an outfielder with a good glove. If they want Castro to be that second baseman then they need to find another utility guy.

Also probably wouldn't hurt to find a couple players that can  hit and pitch.

[tony&rodney]

If the defense is acknowledged as below average, I don't care how it happened but want to know what can be done to make the team better in 2025 than an AL Central fourth place finisher.

 

[chpettit19]

The funny thing is that the solution to the problem is what so many here complain about. It's moving people off their main positions to new positions. Late. It's drafting shortstops (actual shortstops, not Austin Martin shortstops) and then moving them elsewhere as needed. Yes, it's moving Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee to 2B after having played them at SS nearly all of their minor league career. It's playing Emma and Jenkins in CF as long as they can handle it and moving them to a corner at the last possible moment. It's playing Keaschall as high up the defensive spectrum as you can as long as you can (I'm not sure what their plan with him is, his arm injury muddied the waters this year). It's playing Kaelen Culpepper at short until he shows he can't handle it. 

And then when they're all reaching the majors you see where your holes are and you adjust. Are there some bumps in the early going when moving from SS to 2B? Usually, yes. And you live with it because you'd rather have Royce Lewis in your lineup than whatever random guy you happen to have playing 2B for your AAA team at that time. 

Where I do agree with many around here is not turning everyone into utility players at the major league level. Don't call your top prospects up and have them play SS, 3B, 2B, CF, and RF. Call up Brooks Lee who's been playing mostly all SS and put him at 2B and take your limited lumps as he adjusts to that spot. Call up Emma who's been playing mostly all CF and put him in RF and take your limited lumps as he adjusts to that spot. Sorry, Austin Martin, you get to play 2B, CF, LF, and anywhere else we need you to because that's how you hold onto a major league job. Same with Willi Castro. But the guys you're expecting to OPS+/wRC+ 115 or higher get 1 spot and get left there as much as possible. But that spot doesn't have to be the spot they played in the minors. The Twins problem was they drafted too many guys who had no shot at staying up the middle (or weren't up the middle guys to start with) and then moved Lewis to a corner and painted themselves into a corner with no up the middle players to put at 2B.

The Twins need to weigh defense higher when drafting players (looks like they may be moving that direction a little the last couple years) or be better at scouting defense. If they really thought Austin Martin could play SS they failed at scouting. Moving lower tier prospects, and poor defensive prospects around the diamond is not bad asset management. It's exactly what they should do. They're not stunting growth, they're doing everything they can to find any place that guy has any shot at being serviceable. The problem is they bring in too many guys who can't be serviceable anywhere.

The Padres desired lineup included a SS starting in LF (Profar) CF (Merrill- debuted at 20 years old in CF after never playing it in the minors) RF (Tatis) 3B (Machado) SS (Kim) 2B (Bogaerts). Each and every one of those guys played SS their entire minor league careers and 5 of them played it in the majors. The only one who didn't was the 20 year old who moved to a position he'd never played in professional baseball to make his debut on opening day. Moving positions is not a bad thing. Profar is the only horrid fielder on that list. Tatis and Machado are gold glovers at their position. Moving positions in the majors is not a bad thing. It's only bad when you have a bunch of bad defenders. Correa is going to move to 3B eventually. Most likely. That's not going to be some mismanagement of Correa because he's likely going to be incredibly good over there. It's only a bad decision if the Twins don't ever get anyone who can defend at short.

The Twins problem isn't moving guys to new positions. It's having a bunch of guys who can't play defense.

Shoot, for everyone who hates what the Twins are doing with prospects and players now go look at Carlos Santana's minor league games played by positions. The Twins gold glove winner wasn't exactly just sat at 1B in the minors.