Falvey speaks to reporters at MLB GM meetings

[tony&rodney]

Falvey spoke to reporters yesterday and stated that he likes the roster the way it is. He also hinted that there may need to be a move to get around financial realities. I think the term used was "creative', as in the Twins would reduce the roster costs through an action of some sort (DFA, non tender, trade). There is an article on The Athletic by Dan Hayes. While Falvey did his usual non-informational corporate thing, for me the gist of the interview suggested that Falvey already has his team except for a few minor financial adjustments.

Most of the comments and articles on Twins Daily are fully in support of Falvey's stance, which means that the Twins are likely to roll it back minus a contract to bring the roster budget at or below $130 million. So the roster will almost certainly be: SP - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Woods Richardson, Paddack; RP - Duran, Jax, Alcala, Topa, etc.; Position players - Vazquez, Jeffers, Miranda, Julien, Lewis, Lee, Correa, Castro, Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, plus two. I would guess that Castro is let go, but the Twins may trade Lopez instead to save even more money. My guesses are just that, but also take into account Falvey's previous years.

My confusion with the "roll it back" stance is based on several factors. The Twins cannot expect to dominate the weakest teams to the extent that they did last season. The collapse in the last seven weeks was more of a reckoning or coming back to reality in my mind. The Twins had a poor record (among the worst in MLB) versus teams above .500. The Twins are a slow, poor base running team that is well below average defensively. The team looks unbalanced to me.

How does a team overcome these realities to finish at or around .500 again using the same players and strategies? I will admit that I cannot understand Falvey's world. I'm just curious how 2025 will work in light of reader's comments and a similar stance from Derek Falvey. Ideas?

[Fire Dan Gladden]

If the Twins plan to be anything close to competitive next year, they absolutely cannot trade Lopez.  Quality SP is too hard to find.

[stringer bell]

While I agree with almost all of the OP, I will point out that after a slow start, the club played very well for about 100 games. Perhaps the beginning and end were regression to the mean, Last year everyone was talking about the high number of strikeouts. The club drastically reduced strikeouts and home runs while the pitching staff was among the top strikeout units in the majors. Yet the team won six less games and failed to make the playoffs.

Yes, they lack team speed, which also diminishes their defense, but one of the slower shortstops (Correa) isn't going anywhere and none of the second base candidates are above average in the field and only Castro has above-average speed. Where will increased foot speed come from? 

If Correa played 140 games and Buxton 120, I'm pretty confident the team would have made the playoffs. I'm not confident that either Correa or Buxton will get 600 PAs again during their respective careers.

They also lost two starting pitchers during the season and one before the season started. There wasn't enough pitching depth for the club to win. The death knell for the season (IMHO) was the loss of Joe Ryan, without anyone available to step up.

Trying to win with a $130M payroll (with over $50M tied up in three players) is a tough task.

[Parfigliano]

We be in deep deep sh!+ with no shovel.

[tony&rodney]

48 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

They also lost two starting pitchers during the season and one before the season started.

Just curious here ... did you count on Desclafaini and/or Paddack? Ryan was a definite loss in my opinion. In terms of just 2024, I cannot imagine a world where a GM actually planned on any innings from DeSclafani and 90-110 innings of 4.50 ERA was the best scenario for Paddack. He reached his ceiling for 2024. On the other hand, Woods Richardson was a bit of an unexpected boost with 133.2 innings with a 4.17 ERA. Do you expect Paddack to be a significant factor in 2025, with like 110 innings at a 4.50 ERA? I'm just trying to figure out how the current roster works for next season. How do the Twins win 82 games next season?

[Major League Ready]

30 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

. How do the Twins win 82 games next season?

The same way Cleveland went from 76 wins in 2023 to 92 wins in 2024 without a significant trade or free agent signing.  A little better health than the last couple years would help.  They need to fill two SP spots between SWR/Matthews/Festa/Morris and Paddack need to be productive and reliable. 

Lewis needs to get back on track and a couple of the other young guys need to emerge as reliable bats.  Wallner and Larnach looked like they could be steady bats.  They are entering the stage of their careers where they need to prove they can be relied upon.  E Rodriguez making the show early in the year and producing would be huge.  He fills that BU CF role, provides speed / defense and a guy that can hit LH&RH pitching.  He could be a huge difference maker.  

250 games combined from Correa and Buxton would really help.  Is this a reasonable expectation.  IDK but it would sure help to not just reach 500 but 90 wins is insight if these two guys produce.  I guess we should add Lopez pitching well to the list.  The team has invested a large % of payroll in these three guys and it's almost a prerequisite they get production from them if they are going to contend for the central.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The same way Cleveland went from 76 wins in 2023 to 92 wins in 2024 without a significant trade or free agent signing.  A little better health than the last couple years would help.  They need to fill two SP spots between SWR/Matthews/Festa/Morris and Paddack need to be productive and reliable. 

Lewis needs to get back on track and a couple of the other young guys need to emerge as reliable bats.  Wallner and Larnach looked like they could be steady bats.  They are entering the stage of their careers where they need to prove they can be relied upon.  E Rodriguez making the show early in the year and producing would be huge.  He fills that BU CF role, provides speed / defense and a guy that can hit LH&RH pitching.  He could be a huge difference maker.  

250 games combined from Correa and Buxton would really help.  Is this a reasonable expectation.  IDK but it would sure help to not just reach 500 but 90 wins is insight if these two guys produce.  I guess we should add Lopez pitching well to the list.  The team has invested a large % of payroll in these three guys and it's almost a prerequisite they get production from them if they are going to contend for the central.

While I agree that 250 games of excellent production from Correa and Buxton, Lewis playing a full year at his best two week stretch, other guys making comebacks, and Emmanuel Rodriguez emerging as a savior would all help the Twins stay above .500, the comparison to Cleveland doesn't work.

I have written in the past about the athleticism and potential of Cleveland's young players. They play defense better at six or more positions and it isn't very close. They are getting better too. Cleveland also suffered numerous injuries within their pitching staff. 

Yes, I do think the Twins can be a .500 team if all goes well with their current roster. Believe me when I say that I want the Twins to have a good 2025. Hope everything goes swimmingly. But .... just hoping doesn't seem like much of a plan to me. 

[stringer bell]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Just curious here ... did you count on Desclafaini and/or Paddack? Ryan was a definite loss in my opinion. In terms of just 2024, I cannot imagine a world where a GM actually planned on any innings from DeSclafani and 90-110 innings of 4.50 ERA was the best scenario for Paddack. He reached his ceiling for 2024. On the other hand, Woods Richardson was a bit of an unexpected boost with 133.2 innings with a 4.17 ERA. Do you expect Paddack to be a significant factor in 2025, with like 110 innings at a 4.50 ERA? I'm just trying to figure out how the current roster works for next season. How do the Twins win 82 games next season?

I think it was fair to expect some productivity from DeSclafani, but expecting a full season would be a lot. Obviously, the team got zero innings, but I would maintain it was reasonable to expect something from the veteran. 

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think it was fair to expect some productivity from DeSclafani, but expecting a full season would be a lot. Obviously, the team got zero innings, but I would maintain it was reasonable to expect something from the veteran. 

The reports out of San Francisco were that DeSclafani was fried and needed surgery. There was something like a 5-10% or less chance that he would make it to April. This was not a secret as nondisclosure of a known injury can result in penalties. San Fran passed this knowledge to Seattle who passed it to Minnesota. The info was accurate and absolutely nobody was surprised when DeSclafani crashed in Spring Training. FWIW, he is looking to come back this season.

[Riverbrian]

When I look at what we have in our pocket. Who we have in one hand and what we can spend in the other hand. I'm not sure what can be done. 

In my mind the off-season will be bone breaking chaos or it will be grab a pillow and wake up in late March and miss very little off-season action. I don't see middle ground. 

My expectations are low. If they simply blow up the 3 left handers/3 short side right handers template I'll be happy. I'll consider that progress. If they don't bother signing specialists and have honest to god competition for playing time with the players on the roster. I'll be happy. 

No innings eaters. No spending low dollar millions on right handed hitters who can't hit right handers. No left handers in the bullpen who can only get left handers out and develop the youngsters because they are the ones who will help get out of this boat. 

[DocBauer]

IMO, two things caused the disappointing 2024.

1] Too many injuries. I know that's low hanging fruit, but it's a reality. And it's a bit of a comp to Cleveland having better health in 2024 vs 2023. If Lewis's body has "adapted" to the demands of simply playing more after missing so much time, the entire lineup changes. If therapy, rest, and new shoes literally keep Correa on his feet, the offense takes another jump, as does the defense. Ryan able to finish a season changes the rotation structure. (The depth will be better this season compared to last). While I'm not making any bold predictions, if Buxton's knee remains solid, his hip flareups might decrease and maybe we get another 15 games or so from him.

2]The inconsistent hitting. There's an awful lot of offensive potential with what's on hand. And we saw it for about 2/3 to 3/4 of the season, even with some disappointments. But the ineptitude in the first month and the last month just shouldn't happen. There didn't seem to be an ability to make adjustments when an opposing pitcher was hot, or threw with a different approach not expected. We saw some of the same things in 2023 as well. And I think that's why the change in coaching took place. If they can find a better, more consistent approach, with adaptations, from both veterans and young players, all those close games with blown opportunities and disappointing losses might flip around. 

The speed/athleticism factor isn't going to change overnight. Rodriguez, Keaschall... Winoker down the road...any maybe a couple other young guys will help in the future. There's also trade possibilities to help in this area. But speed itself doesn't do a lot of good unless players can also hit and get OB at least to some degree. A healthy Lewis, Miranda, Correa, and a more consistent Jeffers by themselves, without speed, makes the offense better. 

The defense needs work. I'd like to see more work, more drills there, if that's what it takes, to tighten things up. Lee at 2B, Lewis throwing better, and Correa back at SS full time changes a lot of things, IMO.

I believe Falvey when he says he likes his team. There's a lot to like! But I'm sure he'd like to make additions or changes that don't deprive the team of important current players. But he's never going to publicly stated "I sure with the owners would give us another $20M so I could sign a couple of guys". Unfortunately, he's going to probably have to ride with a lot of what's on hand, and look for improvement within.

I HOPE the team can keep Castro and his versatility and speed. His FINAL OPS was slightly over league average despite a poor 2nd half when he reportedly had a bad back. Pretty sure his OPS at the All Star break was a good 10-15 points higher than his final number. Of the 5 spots he played, he was basically league average in OPS+ at all of them. Imagine no bad back? 

Interesting to me that Helman and Keirsey both remain on the 40 man at this time. I absolutely do not pretend that either of them will be any sort of starter or major offensive contributors. But I can see the POSSIBILITY of either or both being better alternatives to Margot and Farmer with the bat and especially the glove if kept around. Good, bad, right, or wrong, there's a chance they are part of the Twins bench in 2025.

I'd like a good, sound, smart addition or two. We all would. And we might get a surprise or two we can't predict right now. It's happened before. But on paper, with just a little better health luck and a more consistent offense, I do think there's a lot to like here.

[Doctor Wu]

On 11/7/2024 at 12:08 AM, tony&rodney said:

Just curious here ... did you count on Desclafaini and/or Paddack? Ryan was a definite loss in my opinion. In terms of just 2024, I cannot imagine a world where a GM actually planned on any innings from DeSclafani and 90-110 innings of 4.50 ERA was the best scenario for Paddack. He reached his ceiling for 2024. On the other hand, Woods Richardson was a bit of an unexpected boost with 133.2 innings with a 4.17 ERA. Do you expect Paddack to be a significant factor in 2025, with like 110 innings at a 4.50 ERA? I'm just trying to figure out how the current roster works for next season. How do the Twins win 82 games next season?

Paddack was the guy who I thought, or hoped, would really step up and shine last season. He was far enough past recovering from TJ surgery, and he seemed to have the fire and determination to prove why he had been such a promising  pitcher with San Diego. But, alas, that obviously didn't happen. His season was by no means a disaster, just cut short again by another injury. 

[Brandon]

The Twins improvement will need to come from players developing and being healthy.  Luckily we should or could have big gains in those two areas next season.  We will shed Paddack contract in a trade and probably push to trade Vázquez especially if we can resign Santana.  I would be surprised to lose Castro this offseason