Tin Foil Hat: What If the Pohlads Don’t Actually Intend to Sell the Twins?

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Short term cuts that will cut into the viability of the Team’s competitiveness is not a carrot for a buyer.

The Team has appreciated over 40 years and the payroll for ‘25 and the $$ to be paid out to players, whether it be $100M or $150M, has no bearing on what a buyer group would be willing to pay.

Santana - Farmer - Kepler - Margot are all gone as free agents.

Paddack may be dangled to evade his health risk, combined with $7.5M salary. Tough to get value back but maybe that’s not the goal.

Vazquez has a contract that is impossible to trade without carrying a bunch of the $$ or adding other prospect value from the Twins …..for essentially zero return. Not happening.

Buxton - Correa - Lopez are the attractive assets for a buyer wanting to take over with marketable star power.

Companies buy assets and then strip the staff to make money in short-term. The Twins ownership doing a strip, months after they said they were selling, would be an obvious and desperate move that would only devalue the asset they are trying to sell

I agree, but if the reports are true about the internal family strife + the cable tv disaster they are scrambling to unload this team as soon as possible and a partial tear down of high salaries from the payroll could very likely be in the works to make the numbers work for a potential buyer faced with forking over 1.5 billion to 2 billion. 

The team has been punished financially, attendance and viewership were also impacted by the August collapse, lack of moves by the FO, and the fiasco with Diamond sports.  The Twins are in a bit of a pickle.  We will never know their finances, but it would not surprise me if they took a big hit again this season, especially in August with the lackluster attendance after they collapsed, along with getting the boot from Diamond sports.  A potential buyer may look at that and say, yeah it's nice they have a newer stadium, but the lack of a solid TV contract, and having to rely on MLB to prop them up with streaming is not good for revenues, BUT if they purge some of the high salaries and at least get it down to more profit year over year again, it's more appealing to a potential buyer that will run it more like a business than a hobby, which will likely enlarge the pool of buyers.  Hobby team owners will be the smaller pool and the Pohlads probably know this first hand. If a sale doesn't come easily, they may cut further anyways.  The Pohlads have never been known to splurge with the team (Correa being the big exception) so fans need to prepare themselves for a year or two of salary dumps, etc.  It definitely sucks, I just remember how they behaved in 1997-2001.

 I could see them doing a full or close to full "strip" of big contracts this offseason (assuming they could pull it off), but that would require agreement from Buxton and Correa to waive those no trade clauses.  Vazquez is a net loss anyways and dumping him will require them to include a lot of money to get a deal done, but it would still lower payroll even if it's distasteful. 

I agree that Buxton, Correa, and Lopez are the most attractive assets..... to a point.  The problem with them is the near constant injury issues.      

[laloesch]

59 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Right. The Pohlad they put in charge was the one who's career accomplishments amounted to the utter failure of two different radio stations. 

To me that would indicate that Jim Pohlad and the rest of the clan had no interest in doing this anymore. Just let the kid drive the Ferrari before we sell it. The parts are worth more than the whole so it's not a big deal if he crashes it.

And if that is indeed true (i think it is), if they fail to sell the team this offseason, he may wreak that Ferrari next season.

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, laloesch said:

And if that is indeed true (i think it is), if they fail to sell the team this offseason, he may wreak that Ferrari next season.

NEXT season?!?! Dang, what was last year?

[laloesch]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

NEXT season?!?! Dang, what was last year?

idk.  This season I interpreted as him being handed the keys (but you have to pay your own insurance, license and registration fees), them watching him over the shoulder from a distance, just to make sure nothing catastrophic happens.  2025 would be him going out on his own, speeding, and the wrapping that beautiful expensive Ferrari around a tree. 

[laloesch]

21 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They're intending to sell the team. Someone else mentioned that a depreciation tax break for new team owners is going away after 2026. Due to changes in TV broadcasting and fan demographics, MLB Revenue looks flat for the foreseeable future. The asset is no longer appreciating and it's time to sell.

I agree with this and that's why they are getting out.  The TV broadcasting issues with Diamond Sports was the final nail in the coffin for them.

[LA Vikes Fan]

18 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Isn't Boars Head the deli meat company that killed 10 people via listeria tainted product.

Indeed they are. They are having an intrafamily fight over ownership and direction of the company. This has lead to less concentration on operations and innovation as management gets drawn into that fight and/or gets conflicting policy direction. An intrafamily ownership squabble can then lead to a loss of focus on the business leading to some significant operational issues, including the listeria issues. That's why I think the two situations may be parallel. For example, for all we know Joe Pohlad wanted to pay to add Kikuchi at the deadline and was overruled by other family members who wanted to maximize annual operating profit. 

[Jocko87]

20 hours ago, Gamblerssoftball said:

Does anyone know if there's an actual person or group with an interest in buying the team. This may be just speculation, but I'm sure the current owners have someone in mind already that they are courting. Otherwise, a deal will be a long way off.

There is absolutely someone or several someones in mind.  MLB has a list, they know all the potential owners and who is actually shopping.  They know who wants the Twins, who wants the A's, who wants the Yankees etc.  For this to go public, MLB and Manfred have to be on board.

For all we know, the public announcement may just be a negotiation tactic if they aren't getting what they want privately from the list of approved buyers.  Much better to negotiate with many if you are a seller, much better to negotiate with only one as a buyer.

[Jocko87]

20 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This makes a lot of sense to me. Moving a family business through multiple generations is incredibly hard to do and usually breaks down over time. Boars Head is a great example. The problem is that there may be internal agreement on what to do amongst an older generation and then you have some people in subsequent generations who have different viewpoints. Here, I could easily see that some of the family wants to treat the team as a business and maximize profit, while some see it more as a hobby and value winning over profit, and some don't care about the business and may want to cash out their their share. The only way to solve that is to either have one person or a small group buy out everyone else's shares or to sell the asset. 

Agreed.  Each generation adds another cook or cooks in the kitchen.  When you break it down to 10 multi-millionaires vs 1 billionaire, absent a strong matriarch/patriarch, nobody is in charge. 

It feels like Carl and his wife were the only decision makers for a long time and for the last few years we aren't sure who is actually in charge.  Joe has never been the sole decision maker.

[lake_guy]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Short term cuts that will cut into the viability of the Team’s competitiveness is not a carrot for a buyer.

The Team has appreciated over 40 years and the payroll for ‘25 and the $$ to be paid out to players, whether it be $100M or $150M, has no bearing on what a buyer group would be willing to pay.

Santana - Farmer - Kepler - Margot are all gone as free agents.

Paddack may be dangled to evade his health risk, combined with $7.5M salary. Tough to get value back but maybe that’s not the goal.

Vazquez has a contract that is impossible to trade without carrying a bunch of the $$ or adding other prospect value from the Twins …..for essentially zero return. Not happening.

Buxton - Correa - Lopez are the attractive assets for a buyer wanting to take over with marketable star power.

Companies buy assets and then strip the staff to make money in short-term. The Twins ownership doing a strip, months after they said they were selling, would be an obvious and desperate move that would only devalue the asset they are trying to sell

However, looking at this from the bigger picture I think they will trade about any assets they can because the new owner(s) understand:

• MLB revenues are not coming back to what they were anytime soon, as in years away.
• Twins are in a bind with how much they committed to injured players.  The only way out is to shed those payroll dollars.  Yes, they could trade some talent from the farm but that particular move is the one thing I think new owners are not gonna want to happen before they take over.
• The Twins will be competitive to some extent with those star players but it's also not gonna be enough to get them more than a wild card at best and three other teams in our division are setup significantly better for success.

As a new owner I can work the marketing angle to get people in the seats and blame the MLB revenue crisis for all manner of issues with the team talent.  A whole bunch of other teams are going to use the revenue crisis to justify all kinds of cuts and no spending on free agents.  

 

[nicksaviking]

19 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Agreed.  Each generation adds another cook or cooks in the kitchen.  When you break it down to 10 multi-millionaires vs 1 billionaire, absent a strong matriarch/patriarch, nobody is in charge. 

It feels like Carl and his wife were the only decision makers for a long time and for the last few years we aren't sure who is actually in charge.  Joe has never been the sole decision maker.

The children of the self made business owners also see what the parent accomplished and likely take some pride in that. Perhaps even more than the parent.

The grandchildren only know of that life though. I'd guess a lot is taken for granted and it would be easy to become complacent and difficult to be thoughtful about the future if that's all you've ever experienced.

[Jocko87]

12 minutes ago, lake_guy said:

However, looking at this from the bigger picture I think they will trade about any assets they can because the new owner(s) understand:

• MLB revenues are not coming back to what they were anytime soon, as in years away.
• Twins are in a bind with how much they committed to injured players.  The only way out is to shed those payroll dollars.  Yes, they could trade some talent from the farm but that particular move is the one thing I think new owners are not gonna want to happen before they take over.
• The Twins will be competitive to some extent with those star players but it's also not gonna be enough to get them more than a wild card at best and three other teams in our division are setup significantly better for success.

As a new owner I can work the marketing angle to get people in the seats and blame the MLB revenue crisis for all manner of issues with the team talent.  A whole bunch of other teams are going to use the revenue crisis to justify all kinds of cuts and no spending on free agents.  

 

New owner understands the cost of the game.  If they intend to do this with less payroll than current, its the wrong game for them.  Shedding current payroll to make the purchase attractive just isn't a thing.  People who buy baseball teams aren't fooled by short term relatively small financial adjustments.  If they are, its the wrong person and the other owners won't approve.

I can't think of a worse way for a new owner to introduce themselves.  That's the careful what you wish for situation.

Yes, the current roster and pipeline are a factor.  No, it doesn't really matter much in the purchase unless there are insane outliers.  It will all be different in 5 years anyway.  It's like not buying a house over a paint color.

[DJL44]

Looks like the White Sox are for sale now as well. Two teams looking for a new buyer.

[Western SD Fan]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Looks like the White Sox are for sale now as well. Two teams looking for a new buyer.

Appears from the rumors, there is already an ownership group led by Dave Stewart working on buying the White Sox.  Idk if that means that he may relocate the White Sox to Oakland since Stewart is a big Oakland guy.  Not likely in the interim since the Coliseum is in worse shape than Guaranteed Rate Field, but it might kick the Oakland area officials into gear about a new stadium if Stewart promises to move them.

The one thing I can say about the Pohlads is that they are intentional, I don't believe they would have announced that the team is up for sale without discussing selling the team with a couple potential buyers.  I agree with a lot of the posters here that adjusting the payroll won't entice or detract a buyer.  I cannot imagine that a new owner would want all of the marketable players strip mined and traded off, especially since I don't believe they could get a fair value in return.  

One item I hope the new owners consider that I believe was poor planning was to attempt to establish an Upper Midwest Sports Network partially owned by the Twins.  I think they could have partnered with Midco, who is 49% owned by Comcast (thus preventing this whole backlash of nobody being able to see the Twins this summer).  Midco Sports has grown considerably and covers much of the sports in the Upper Midwest, currently including University of North Dakota and South Dakota football games, Summit League and Northern Sun Basketball.  Expanding into MN wouldn't be hard to add NCHC Hockey (UND, St. Cloud State, MN-Duluth, Nebraska-Omaha, or maybe get to rebroadcast Golden Gopher hockey if the Big Ten Network isn't).  Find a way to add NDSU, SDSU, and St. Thomas football and I think you could make a network work.  Finally, Midco Sports could broadcast St. Paul Saints games and maybe even Cedar Rapids games, like Marquee does for their affiliates.  This is my pipe dream and dreaming of a way to produce year-round revenue off of a locally owned RSN.  Obviously, it needs a different model than the current ones, but just an idea.

[DJL44]

36 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

One item I hope the new owners consider that I believe was poor planning was to attempt to establish an Upper Midwest Sports Network partially owned by the Twins.  

The Mariners own their regional sports network. They just lost the NBA and NHL. The RSN era is ending.

[beckmt]

Stewart wants to move the club to Nashville.  Their are other big money people out there who have a home city they want to move a club into.  Be careful what you wish for.  Leases are fairly easy to break depending on how much money the new owners are willing to fork over.  Plus the Twins would be cheaper than the White Sox and a better product at this time. They would be harder to move however.

[beckmt]

There also have been a lot of teams using that ploy to get a favorable term new ballpark built with a great revenue stream.  We don't know if that is the case here.  But if those talks fail, they will tourn their attention here.  Other club to watch is Tampa Bay, with it unlikely to fix Tropicana field and at least 3 years before a new park is built , if ever. 

[Heiny]

Very interesting conversation.  But, realistically this is all just speculation.  I don't think any of us really understand the workings of billionaire corporations like we pretend to think we do.  Personally I think I'll wait to see what happens and I will continue to support the Twins,  but I do enjoy reading everyones opinions whether or not I think anyone knows what they are talking about.

[Brandon]

Does anyone know the Twins payroll in 1984 when Pohlad bought the team?  How has payroll inflated vs the value of the franchise?  This would or could be a fun stat to argue about here.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

Does anyone know the Twins payroll in 1984 when Pohlad bought the team?  How has payroll inflated vs the value of the franchise?  This would or could be a fun stat to argue about here.

$1.96M, per spotrac.

https://twinstrivia.com/salaries-2/

 

Ever hear of google?

 

[beckmt]

Hopefully the Pohlads are at least loyal to this area,  If it is just about the money the Twins will be sold and the dance will start for the new owner to move them.  

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, beckmt said:

Hopefully the Pohlads are at least loyal to this area,  If it is just about the money the Twins will be sold and the dance will start for the new owner to move them.  

The Pohlads have quite a few properties in Minneapolis. Those properties are more valuable with the Twins in Minneapolis so I expect they will want to sell to a buyer interested in keeping the team in Minnesota.