With Six Games Left, Twins Need Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa Six Times Apiece

[Sherry Cerny]

There's no time left for load management, or even cautious handling of long-term assets. The only hope for a Twins team in desperate need of an offensive spark is to have their best players give their all. If not now, when?

Image courtesy of © Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Everything seemed to be moving toward another strong finish and a second consecutive playoff appearance. Then, it happened. Twins ownership decided not only not to increase the payroll from 2023 to 2024, but to drastically reduce it. As a result, there's about $40 million worth of talent missing from this roster, and its absence has been felt down the stretch, about the way you'd feel it if someone wantonly harvested a kidney from you. 

Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are star-caliber players, when they're available. Their previous numbers on the field, offensively and defensively, made them outstanding assets to the team. The best part of having such well-rounded, two-way contributors is that they are an integral part of the team's winning game plan, in a way more one-dimensional players can't match. 

The problem is that both of these irreplaceable talents require replacement too often. When Buxton signed a long-term contract with the Twins, his injuries were considered and priced into the deal. While his availability is limited, if you start from the premise that his deal reflected an understanding of that limitation on the part of the Twins, he's been worth his salary.

But matching market value isn’t everything when the numbers are bleak. Buxton has appeared at the plate 329 times, striking out 96 times and only getting 59 runs and 53 RBIs. The team around him hasn't created enough chances, and his injury trouble has translated into inconsistent offense. 

Correa, of course, was passed on by two would-be teams interested in long-term deals with him, after the Twins picked him up for one season. In a last-minute pivot, he came back to the club as a third option. Correa is one of the highest-paid players on the team and in the league, and should play as such, but because of pre-existing conditions either overlooked, missed, or downplayed by all parties involved, he has joined teammate Buxton on the bench for a majority of the season. That's after a 2023 in which he played most days, but poorly, and after stints on the injured list in 2022 (brief) and each years from 2017-19 (longer).

In his 80 appearances, Correa has 56 strikeouts, 52 runs, and 52 RBIs, his lowest numbers for any big-league season save the COVID-shortened 2020. In his last five games, Correa has one run, and that was in a loss against the Guardians on Sept. 16. He's looked good since returning to the lineup, but not good enough to carry an offense that looks helpless much of the time.

Outside of their bats, both players are experts in their defensive positions. The value gap between Buxton and Correa and their replacements in center field and at shortstop, respectively, is enormous. Baseball Prospectus has a Range Out Score for defenders, which provides a rare insight for fielding metrics: a rate stat to use for comparison of uneven samples. It's indexed to 0, with positive numbers representing the percentage of plays charged to that fielder they made above the average and negative ones representing the percentage of charged plays they didn't make, that an average fielder would.

Player	Position	Range Out Score
Carlos Correa	SS	2.5
Kyle Farmer	SS	0.9
Brooks Lee	SS	-2.6
Willi Castro	SS	-3.6
Manuel Margot	CF	-2.2
Byron Buxton	CF	-4.1
Austin Martin	CF	-4.5
Willi Castro	CF	-6.7

The numbers say that not all of Buxton's brilliance in center came back after his gap year as a DH, but even so, he's better than the two most-used alternatives to him at that position. Correa, meanwhile, is far superior to the rest of the team's shortstop options, especially since his stint on the IL partially overlapped with that of Kyle Farmer, who rates as the next-best player to whom they can turn.

Players like Austin Martin, Willi Castro, Manuel Margot, Farmer, and Brooks Lee are underqualified to replace the stars, not because every team must have multiple above-average players at every defensive spot, but because this team knew they would be without Buxton and Correa for long stretches, and they still didn't reinforce the roster accordingly.

With both the players and management saying they are healthy enough to go, then, there is no reason to hold back. It is time to make up for lost time and put Correa and Buxton in on a daily basis during this absolutely crucial time. Even if the Twins miss the playoffs, the team and fans deserve to end this season with a fierce effort. It's clear that the only way this team can put up such a fight is to have their two highest-paid players in the lineup every day. 

Ownership signed off on two high-caliber, high-paid players who haven't been able to consistently anchor the lineup this year, leaving the continuity of the team lacking. While expecting the team to allow the “heavy lifting” to be done by two players, it is not acceptable to let those two players contribute to less than 60% of games throughout the season. The crime here is primarily in not having better supplemented the roster, but since that's where we are, the time has come to ride the stars hard and (if needed) put them away wet.

Paying these two players, knowing that they have durability issues, knowing they would have to build a team around them to be successful, and then slicing payroll and not allowing them to make up for their absences was a failure on the ownership. While their contracts aren’t a detriment to the team, the ownership failed to allow leadership to build a deep, competitive roster, and it hurt the team by having them on the bench more consistently than on the field.

Days off are more than acceptable; every player should have them. Buxton and Correa are indispensable to this team at this moment, though. The two players aren’t getting any younger, and there is little hope that the Pohlads will rediscover their checkbook and spend the missing $40 million on next year's team. Every team experiences injuries and setbacks, but at this point, the Twins have to play their two legitimate All-Stars as much as their luck and health will allow.

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[LambchoP]

Twins ownership loves their oft-injured, injury prone/coming back from injury players, usually for the discount in cost. Problem is, we're getting no discount with Correa. Hopefully he can play a full year next year otherwise a poor team like ours cannot continue to pay one part time players almost 40 million per year!

[farmerguychris]

The message to me seems pretty clear .  Our playoffs have begun.  You don't rest players in the playoffs, and you can't rest them now either.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Yeah... I think this issue/complaint needs to die.  Both Correa and Buxton have played in the last 4 games including both ends of Sunday's doubleheader.  Any load management concerns are gone. 

On to bigger problems...

[chpettit19]

45 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Yeah... I think this issue/complaint needs to die.  Both Correa and Buxton have played in the last 4 games including both ends of Sunday's doubleheader.  Any load management concerns are gone. 

On to bigger problems...

I don't know. I'll believe load management concerns are gone when I see them actually play every inning this week.

Correa's first game back was 9/14. Since that game he's 6th on the team in PAs. He's 8th on the team in games played. They've sat him twice in 9 games while pulling him early in 2 other games.

Buxton's first game back was 9/13. Since that game he's 5th on the team in PAs. He's 7th on the team in games played. They've sat him twice in 10 games while pulling him early in 2 other games.

One of the times they were each sat was in a game that came the day after they played 4 innings. That doesn't look like load management is gone. That looks exactly like load management.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't know. I'll believe load management concerns are gone when I see them actually play every inning this week.

Correa's first game back was 9/14. Since that game he's 6th on the team in PAs. He's 8th on the team in games played. They've sat him twice in 9 games while pulling him early in 2 other games.

Buxton's first game back was 9/13. Since that game he's 5th on the team in PAs. He's 7th on the team in games played. They've sat him twice in 10 games while pulling him early in 2 other games.

One of the times they were each sat was in a game that came the day after they played 4 innings. That doesn't look like load management is gone. That looks exactly like load management.

A week ago I would have agreed.  As they have both played the last four games, the narrative appears to have changed. 

[chpettit19]

Just now, Fire Dan Gladden said:

A week ago I would have agreed.  As they have both played the last four games, the narrative appears to have changed. 

Because of 4 games? Yeah, I'm just going to have to see them actually play every game this week before I'm sold. They've been back for 9 days and 10 days. "A week ago" they'd been back for 2 and 3 days. I hope they play every inning this week. But the idea that the narrative has changed because they played 4 games in a row, 1 of which they each came out early in, doesn't seem to be based on much.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Because of 4 games? Yeah, I'm just going to have to see them actually play every game this week before I'm sold. They've been back for 9 days and 10 days. "A week ago" they'd been back for 2 and 3 days. I hope they play every inning this week. But the idea that the narrative has changed because they played 4 games in a row, 1 of which they each came out early in, doesn't seem to be based on much.

Ummm... considering the window is small, and the concern about load management has to do with playing in "meaningful" games and innings, yeah 4 games should about cover it.  How many more games do you want them to play before you change your mind?  Considering there is only 6 games left, not much room left to change your opinion

[chpettit19]

Just now, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Ummm... considering the window is small, and the concern about load management has to do with playing in "meaningful" games and innings, yeah 4 games should about cover it.  How many more games do you want them to play before you change your mind?  Considering there is only 6 games left, not much room left to change your opinion

Every inning of all 6. And no DH games. If the "load management concerns are gone" Byron Buxton will be in centerfield for every pitch a Twins pitcher throws from here until they pack up the clubhouse and head home for the offseason. If the "load management concerns are gone" Carlos Correa will be at shortstop for every pitch a Twins pitcher throws from here until they pack up the clubhouse and head home for the offseason. In the week and a half they've been back they haven't done it for 4 straight games let alone 6.

They've had far more than 4 "meaningful" games since they've been back. Like 100% of the games have been "meaningful" since they've been back and they've both sat multiple and been pulled early in multiple. Playing 3.5 of the last 4 games doesn't sell me on them not managing their playing time. Since, you know, 3.5 is not 100% of 4. They were load managed yesterday.

[umterp23]

When you are the so called face of the franchise, you play and insist on playing and you don't come out of a game.  Pulled early because a deficit in score that manager threw in the towel and said we can't win and you pull your faces out, sends a message to the rest of the team as well.  

I hear we have great clubhouse leaders, which means nothing to me when we praise guys for that by the way, you set the tone, you play until you are eliminated.  Pretty sure Royals and Tigers aren't resting guys like we do.

Best 9 on the field regardless of starting pitcher lefty or righty has to be the mandate this week.  Musical chairs batting order is quite laughable as well.  Set it and get after it like your season depends on it because it depends on it at moment.

 

[Karbo]

5 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Twins ownership loves their oft-injured, injury prone/coming back from injury players, usually for the discount in cost. Problem is, we're getting no discount with Correa. Hopefully he can play a full year next year otherwise a poor team like ours cannot continue to pay one part time players almost 40 million per year!

I wouldn't put all the blame on owners, but rather split between FO and owners. Pohlads are the money sure, but the FO does the negotiating first, then if it goes over the payroll they must get approval. Pohlads are smart enough to let the baseball guys make most of those decisions.

[RpR]

With six games left, the Twins need every player on the field to perform , at mimimum, at their career average.

Right now, most are below it and making their average lower.

[mrtwinsfan]

Miami is starting a Lefty, so when we see Manny  Margo, Roccos pet, leading off on Tuesday We will have our Answer,   He has ZERO  Business being on the Field starting any game,   Or Pinch Hitting ,  thats went well   he is now 0-30

[RpR]

1 hour ago, mrtwinsfan said:

Miami is starting a Lefty, so when we see Manny  Margo, Roccos pet, leading off on Tuesday We will have our Answer,   He has ZERO  Business being on the Field starting any game,   Or Pinch Hitting ,  thats went well   he is now 0-30

Blaming Margot for Twins problems is getting to be boring and obtuse.

[mrtwinsfan]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Blaming Margot for Twins problems is getting to be boring and obtuse.

Obtuse   Funny --  oh like i am the only one,  , you think i care what you think, its called Difference of Opinion,  Go Twins !!

[Doctor Wu]

In his last five games, Correa has one run

I know I'm nitpicking, but what does that mean? Only one RBI, or only one run scored? Or maybe something else?

[Schmoeman5]

20 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Because of 4 games? Yeah, I'm just going to have to see them actually play every game this week before I'm sold. They've been back for 9 days and 10 days. "A week ago" they'd been back for 2 and 3 days. I hope they play every inning this week. But the idea that the narrative has changed because they played 4 games in a row, 1 of which they each came out early in, doesn't seem to be based on much.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 I stand by my posts