The Ongoing Education of Edouard Julien

[Matthew Taylor]

Edouard Julien’s sophomore season has been a rollercoaster, with his once-patient approach leading to a frustrating dip in production. However, recent adjustments at the plate suggest he may be turning a corner. Could a more aggressive Julien be the key to unlocking his full potential?

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

It wasn’t long ago that Edouard Julien seemed like one of the most promising young hitters on the Minnesota Twins. After a stellar rookie campaign in 2023, he looked like a potential fixture in the lineup for years to come. Yet, like many young players, the sophomore slump hit Julien hard. His patience at the plate—once an asset—became almost a detriment, as he found himself among the league leaders in called strikeouts.

Now, however, things may be starting to shift in Julien’s favor. While the numbers don’t jump off the page at first glance, a closer look suggests that Julien could be on the verge of turning a corner.

For most of the season, Julien’s chase rate has been impressively low, consistent with his reputation for superb plate discipline. But recently, there’s been a noticeable increase in the number of pitches he’s swinging at outside the zone, with his chase rate spiking to 33.3% over the past month, a stark increase from his 16.9% chase rate early in the season and 14.8% chase rate last season. For a hitter who had been so selective earlier to start his career, this might seem concerning at first glance. But instead of signaling a decline, this recent aggressiveness may actually be a sign of positive change.

In fact, Julien hasn’t walked in his last 10 games—a significant departure from his usual approach. This marks only the second time in his career that he’s gone this long without drawing a free pass. However, rather than being a red flag, this shift could indicate that Julien is feeling more confident at the plate, trusting his ability to put the ball in play rather than relying solely on walks.

Looking deeper into his recent performance, it’s clear that Julien has been making more solid contact, reminiscent of the line drives and well-hit fly balls we saw during his breakout last season. Before his most recent promotion in mid-August, Julien’s fly-ball rate was a high 36.4%, while his line-drive rate had dropped to 19.6%—a far cry from his 2023 numbers. Since coming back to the big leagues, he’s brought those numbers back in line with his successful rookie season. His fly-ball rate is now down to 25%, and his line-drive rate has climbed to an impressive 34.1%.

This change in batted-ball profile is key. Julien is getting back to his roots, focusing on driving the ball through gaps rather than trying to elevate too much. This is evident in his BABIP, which has risen from .300 earlier in the season to .350 since his return. The numbers suggest that he’s finding more success when putting the ball in play, giving himself better chances to beat the defense.

Another big factor in Julien’s resurgence has been his shift in approach. Earlier this season, his patience at the plate bordered on passivity. He led the league in called third strikes, watching too many hittable pitches sail by. In 63 games before his August promotion, Julien had racked up 39 called strikeouts, an alarming number for a hitter of his caliber. Since his return, though, he’s only been caught looking six times in 24 games. That’s a dramatic improvement, showing that he’s being more aggressive when it counts.

His walk rate has dropped from 12.9% to 7.2%, but it’s important to see this in context. Julien’s decrease in walks corresponds with his willingness to swing at more pitches, both in and out of the zone. For a hitter like him, striking the right balance between selectivity and aggressiveness is key. And while his recent chase rate might seem worrisome at first glance, it could actually be a sign that Julien is starting to feel more comfortable attacking pitches and taking control of his at-bats.

The next step for Julien is finding that middle ground, where he can harness his natural patience while also being assertive at the plate. We haven't seen his offensive numbers change too much yet, but with his revamped batting profile and a fresh aggressiveness at the plate, an offensive explosion may be just around the corner.

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What do you think? Has Edouard Julien turned a corner at the plate, or is there still work to be done? Leave your thoughts in the comments and join the conversation!

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[TwinsDr2021]

I thought after reading this I would see some actual positive results. But in the ten games this month his slash is .214/.214/.357 = .571, with two extra base hits. Going back into August his slash is .278/.366/.333 = .699, but if you take his 4 for 5 game out his number drop way back down.

I have like Julien and still do, but he needs to get things figured out this off season, otherwise he is barely playable at this point.

[arby58]

I guess the obvious response is 'small sample size.' Of course, that doesn't mean you aren't on to something here. I certainly hope you are right.

[mwmarkland]

I think the hitting will come with time and experience. I'm more concerned about his untimely errors in the field and whether he can continue to improve that part of his game so he can stay at 2nd. If not I wonder if there is a Miranda/Julien platoon at first in the future.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, Matthew Taylor said:

After a stellar rookie campaign in 2023, he looked like a potential fixture in the lineup for years to come.

Not sure why TwinsDaily pushed this so hard? 

I have no problem having Julien as a DH or pinch hitter. There can be a role for that especially in a playoff series.

I think, much like Miguel Sano, Julien is who he is at this point, a high exit velo guy who is prone to streakiness and may even be able to carve out a role as first baseman for a while. A Miranda/Julien platoon at 1B/DH seems like a simple in-house replacement or even upgrade from Santana next year.. I was just typing out the same thing. 🙂

[specialiststeve]

A bit stunned they sent down Martin instead of Julian. 

Julian has cost this team several games with his Jr. high defense. Martin is very solid and useful at several positions. His at bats are much better than Julian 90% of the time. Not understanding the FO on this one. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

57 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I thought after reading this I would see some actual positive results. But in the ten games this month his slash is .214/.214/.357 = .571, with two extra base hits. Going back into August his slash is .278/.366/.333 = .699, but if you take his 4 for 5 game out his number drop way back down.

I have like Julien and still do, but he needs to get things figured out this off season, otherwise he is barely playable at this point.

His average exit velo is up nearly 4 mph, hard hit % is up 7.5% and barrel rate is up nearly 11% to a very strong 15% in September. He's been fairly unlucky with an expected slash line of .282/.282/.597 this month.

His batted balls have been much better and hitting line drives has always been the best approach to baseball. 

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

A bit stunned they sent down Martin instead of Julian. 

Julian has cost this team several games with his Jr. high defense. Martin is very solid and useful at several positions. His at bats are much better than Julian 90% of the time. Not understanding the FO on this one. 

Martin's defense is definitely not "solid". RField of -13 in about half a season of MLB games is terrible.

[Doctor Gast]

His KL in the past has been mainly looking for pitches to mash & leaving questionable pitches go for strikes. I like his increase in line drives & decrease in GBs & FBs. His decrease in BB might be part of the process but still, I wouldn't say I like it. He still has a lot of adjusting to do. IMO he'll adjust but he might achieve what many expect from him.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Martin's defense is definitely not "solid". RField of -13 in about half a season of MLB games is terrible.

By OAA he's been approximately as good as Yordan in LF (which is not good), the 3rd worst CF in baseball (Willi is 4th worst), and also pretty bad at 2B. He's versatile, but that's about as much as you can say right now. 

[mrmpls]

I am surprised  Martin was sent down, his time at 2b  his defense is as good or Better than Juliens -he can also play outfield if needed  and Speed wise its not even close and Pinch Hitting or runner needed and Roccos obsession with Left -Right batters -  Hope Julien helps but as a late game bench move i dont get it , other than the love of Farmer 

[IaBeanCounter]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

 A Miranda/Julien platoon at 1B/DH seems like a simple in-house replacement or even upgrade from Santana next year.. I was just typing out the same thing. 🙂

Miranda has an OPS of. 892 v R and .586 v L.  In 2022 it was .721 and .820.  Santana is .680 v R and .934 v L.  How is Julien/Miranda = or better than Miranda/Santana.?  If 25 Miranda is the same as 24 Miranda I believe he should be the everyday 1st baseman.  JMHO

.

[LambchoP]

He's definitely been hitting better with a more aggressive approach,but he still has a ways to go before he gets back to where he was last year. Sophomore slumps or not, pitchers adjusted to him and now he needs to find a way to adjust back. I'm worried about his defense too. It's been so bad this year it's cost us runs and at least one loss. I think he's AAA bound when Correa comes back. Hopefully he can make something click in St Paul and look towards 2025 and put this year behind him. I think if the struggles continue through next year, he'll be passed up by some of our young IF players like Keaschal, Eeles or Severino.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mrmpls said:

play outfield if needed  and Speed wise its not even close

His statcast page lays it all out. 75th percentile speed, 4th percentile outfield range. His initial jump is terrible. He's making 83% of the plays when the expectation is 88%.

Austin Martin Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

He covers 2 feet less than an average CF. That may not sound like much but remember it's the radius of a circle. 32 feet vs 34 feet is a difference of 414 square feet of outfield that Martin can't cover. Buxton's coverage is 35.5 feet which means he covers 740 more square feet of outfield than Austin Martin.

[DJL44]

Julien needs to be a little less aggressive. A 33% chase rate is too high for him. He was too passive before, so this is part of learning the MLB strike zone.

[IaBeanCounter]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

 so this is part of learning the MLB strike zone.

He let a lot of clear strikes go by for an earned K.  He also got wrung up on some pitches that weren't strikes.  So "learning the MLB strike zone" really means learning the MLB umpires who favor the pitcher. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1 hour ago, IaBeanCounter said:

Miranda has an OPS of. 892 v R and .586 v L.  In 2022 it was .721 and .820.  Santana is .680 v R and .934 v L.  How is Julien/Miranda = or better than Miranda/Santana.?  If 25 Miranda is the same as 24 Miranda I believe he should be the everyday 1st baseman.  JMHO

.

I was wondering if someone would bring this up. Miranda has great splits against lefties in the minors. Do you really think Miranda would struggle against lefties with regular playing time and a regular role? 

I am not opposed to your suggestion to put Miranda at 1B full time, which would take away Julien’s potential at bats as a 1B. I don’t have a good read on either one’s glove or footwork at first?

[IaBeanCounter]

8 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I was wondering if someone would bring this up. Miranda has great splits against lefties in the minors. Do you really think Miranda would struggle against lefties with regular playing time and a regular role? 

I am not opposed to your suggestion to put Miranda at 1B full time, which would take away Julien’s potential at bats as a 1B. I don’t have a good read on either one’s glove or footwork at first?

I don't think Miranda would struggle against lefties.  If Miranda was only playing first, based on the splits he should go against RHP and Santana against LHP.

Miranda has played OK at first 1 OAA in limited chances.  Santana is the best defensive first baseman in the AL and maybe in MLB

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

6 minutes ago, IaBeanCounter said:

I don't think Miranda would struggle against lefties.  If Miranda was only playing first, based on the splits he should go against RHP and Santana against LHP.

Miranda has played OK at first 1 OAA in limited chances.  Santana is the best defensive first baseman in the AL and maybe in MLB

That may be home town bias, based on all the comments I have read about Santana recently not making certain plays or me seeing him miss a couple scoops at first with my own eyes. Either way, I digress. 

[mrmpls]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

His statcast page lays it all out. 75th percentile speed, 4th percentile outfield range. His initial jump is terrible. He's making 83% of the plays when the expectation is 88%.

Austin Martin Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

He covers 2 feet less than an average CF. That may not sound like much but remember it's the radius of a circle. 32 feet vs 34 feet is a difference of 414 square feet of outfield that Martin can't cover. Buxton's coverage is 35.5 feet which means he covers 740 more square feet of outfield than Austin Martin.

And Julien at 2b  -  outfield -no Martin will never be special , but as a 2b or infielder where Martin should be , Julien ??  no way

[chpettit19]

Strong disagree that him spiking his chase rate is a good sign. His chase rate was never the problem. And it spiking will never be a good thing. His problem is his in zone swing and contact rates. He's too picky on which strikes he swings at, and misses too many of the ones he does. Him chasing more does not help the situation. He was passive before, but it's all about him swinging at, and hitting, strikes.

If he were better at making contact then increasing his chase rate wouldn't be terrible. But he isn't. He already struggles to make enough contact so adding swings on balls he really can't hit, and would be balls, is not a recipe for success. He needs to be more aggressive on balls in the zone, but, really, he needs to be better at hitting the ball. 

This season he's seen 50.4% of pitches in the zone. League average is 48.7. He's swing at 62.2% of those pitches. League average is 67. He's made contact on 78.2% of those pitches. League average is 82. His chase contact rate is 36.5%. League average is 57.8. So he sees more pitches in the zone, swings at fewer of them, and makes contact with fewer of them. Pitches out of the zone he misses significantly more than the average player. Chasing more will not help him. His swing path is incredibly steep and it makes hitting certain pitches much harder. That's his problem.

Maybe the extra chase is part of the process, but it better be short lived. He won't have a career if he's chasing 33% of the time. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mrmpls said:

And Julien at 2b  -  Martin will never be special , but as a 2b or infielder where Martin should be

Julien rates 1% below average and Martin rates 3% below average (in a smaller sample size). They're both below average at 2B but Martin has graded out worse than Julien.

[Larry Janisewski]

5 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

A bit stunned they sent down Martin instead of Julian. 

Julian has cost this team several games with his Jr. high defense. Martin is very solid and useful at several positions. His at bats are much better than Julian 90% of the time. Not understanding the FO on this one. 

Do you think when Correa comes back Julien will go down and Lee takes over at 2nd base?

[srlarson]

Julien is a triple A guy.....injury fill in....not an every day major leaguer......no room for him on the 26 man roster of a good team......

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Larry Janisewski said:

Do you think when Correa comes back Julien will go down and Lee takes over at 2nd base?

NOT an improvement.

[Linus]

People just got way ahead of themselves when it comes to Julien. His hot half season was on a babip of 372. The league hadn’t seen him and just needed time to adjust to him. He has two big problems: he is a one trick pony with the bat. The league adjusted and I don’t believe he have the tools to adjust back. Secondly he is so limited defensively that he will have to hit to a dh / 1st base level in order to play. I don’t think he can do that. Very few hitters can succeed when you swing and miss a lot. We might have one in Wallner. And don’t look now but Emma Rodriquez could easily end up being Julien. 

[DocBauer]

For whatever reason, Julien started relying more on having a "perfect" eye and being less aggressive. Who knows, maybe he's better at balls and strikes than most umps. But it doesn't matter if he is if he stands there, doesn't swing, and tries to work the count for a BB. At some point, you still have to be aggressive on a pitch that's in the zone that you SHOULD be able to make contact with. And for whatever reason, the balance we saw in MILB previously and what he did in 2023 just seemed to disappear.

I keep wondering if he didn't get frustrated early this season and fell in to complacency?

I don't think his chase rate suddenly rising is a great sign. But at LEAST it's an indication he's trying to swing again. Now it's a question of finding the balance he was known for previously, patient, good eye, but strong swings for the hittable stuff in his zone.

Defensively, he made massive improvement over the course of last season. Even early this season, he looked solid there. Lately, it looks like while his hitting has improved some, his defense has slipped. I still like the ability and the work ethic. And I'm not going to bail on a ML sophomore with talent and potential. And I'm not going to bail on Martin yet either. But other than a few plays here and there, Martin has been average to pretty poor wherever he's played this year. And with Margot back..(meh, he's a solid veteran I guess)...and Keirsey as a better defender and probably as good/fast or better/faster than Martin, it made sense that Martin was the guy sent down at this time. 

 

[specialiststeve]

6 hours ago, Larry Janisewski said:

Do you think when Correa comes back Julien will go down and Lee takes over at 2nd base?

Absolutly. Think that was the long term plan all along with Lee. Hopefully Correa is back soon. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, specialiststeve said:

Absolutly. Think that was the long term plan all along with Lee. Hopefully Correa is back soon. 

Lee should go down with Julien  , he is not near Major League ready.

[Fatbat]

Juliens best position is DH/PH.  Every thing else should just be fill in.