One Twins Pitching Prospect is Completing a Journey of Resilience and Determination

[Cody Christie]

Connor Prielipp was once considered among the Twins’ top pitching prospects. After an injury-plagued start to his professional career, how can he impact the organization in the future?

Image courtesy of John Vittas- Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Connor Prielipp, a promising left-handed pitcher within the Minnesota Twins organization, has become a name to watch for his talent on the mound and his resilience in the face of adversity. Drafted in the second round of the 2022 MLB Draft out of the University of Alabama, Prielipp was a highly touted prospect with an arsenal of pitches that left scouts and analysts buzzing. However, his journey to professional baseball has been anything but smooth, marked by significant injuries that threatened to derail his career before it even began.

Injury Struggles and Recovery
Prielipp's first significant hurdle came in college, where he showcased his talent but was limited due to an elbow injury. The injury ultimately led to Tommy John surgery in 2021, a procedure that is now common among pitchers but still carries significant risk and a long road to recovery. Despite the setback, the Twins saw potential in Prielipp, recognizing his advanced pitching skills and mental toughness. His recovery from Tommy John surgery has been closely monitored, with the Twins taking a cautious approach to ensure he returns to full strength. 

Last season, Prielipp suffered another injury setback as he required surgery last July to address a torn UCL in his left elbow. His injury limited him to 6 2/3 innings during his first professional action. He opened the 2024 campaign on the IL with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. He made his first appearances in the Florida Complex League and the Florida State League shortly before the All-Star break. It was a small but meaningful milestone for a player who has been limited since signing with the Twins.  

Return to the Field: A New Beginning at High-A Cedar Rapids
After a long and arduous rehabilitation process, Prielipp made his season debut with the Cedar Rapids Kernels, the Twins' High-A affiliate, in the 2024 season. His return to the mound has been a testament to his determination and hard work. Prielipp's performance at Cedar Rapids has shown flashes of his pre-injury form, with a fastball that touches the mid-90s, a sharp slider, and a developing changeup. His command and ability to mix pitches have made him effective against High-A hitters, and his presence on the field is a welcome sight for the Twins organization.

Timeline to the Big Leagues
The path to the major leagues is rarely straightforward, especially for a pitcher coming off a significant injury. However, Prielipp's talent and work ethic could accelerate his journey. If he continues to progress without any setbacks, a promotion to Double-A Wichita could be on the horizon by the end of the 2024 season. From there, his performance and health will dictate the timeline, but a potential debut in the majors could be realistic by late 2025 or early 2026.

Starter or Reliever: The Big Question
One of the biggest questions surrounding Prielipp's future is whether he will remain a starter or transition to the bullpen. His injury history naturally raises concerns about his durability in a starting role. Starting pitchers have to endure a heavier workload, which could put more strain on Prielipp's elbow. However, his three-pitch mix and ability to navigate lineups multiple times are traits that the Twins would love to harness in a starting role.

Conversely, the bullpen could offer a less demanding workload, allowing Prielipp to maximize his fastball-slider combination in shorter outings. This role could help preserve his arm and extend his career, making him a valuable late-inning reliever. The Twins will likely assess his progress and physical condition over the next year to determine the best course of action.

Prielipp's journey to the big leagues is a story of resilience, hope, and potential. While injuries have tested his resolve, his return to the field and performance at Cedar Rapids demonstrate his commitment to overcoming adversity. Whether he becomes a mainstay in the Twins' rotation or a valuable bullpen arm, Prielipp's future in baseball is bright. The Twins and their fans will be watching closely as he continues to work his way up the minor league ladder, hoping his perseverance will lead to success at the highest level.

Will Prielipp be a starter or a reliever by the time he reaches Target Field? What’s a realistic timeline for him to make his debut? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[LambchoP]

How about a dominant multi inning reliever that can go two or three innings. Those kind of relief pitchers are incredibly valuable.

[DJL44]

I have no idea if slider spin of 3178 RPM is something a human arm can do for 180 innings a season.

[gman]

I'm hoping he can make it as a starter. That slider may have to be limited to 12-15 pitches a game so he doesn't blow his arm out again. If that process would actually work for him. In which case e needs to learn another pitch or two.

[old nurse]

5 years between college and pro level. 99 innings. I hope he invested wisely in what was left of his $ 1.8 million signing bonus.  It is hard to see how he would ever build up to be a starter. As a reliever he could show up much sooner. Still it would a few years to get him to a 60 inning reliever workload 

[Gamblerssoftball]

It's too early to pull the plug on starting. He's got six months to keep building strength for next year. Let's see what next year brings. 

[SaberNerd]

We'll see if he can start, but it's too early to decide he's a reliever.  He has really only had 1 injury, missed a bunch of time due to having it at the worst possible time, and then didn't recover properly.  This isn't like Canterino where he keeps getting different injuries.

[olerud]

Too early to giveup on starting him

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I have no idea if slider spin of 3178 RPM is something a human arm can do for 180 innings a season.

Closest I see from a starter is Randy Vazquez who averages 3055 RPM on his sweeper. Lucas Sims' sweeper is the fastest spinning non-curve at 3149 RPM. Jax is #4 in MLB at 3052. 

Among curveballs Seth Lugo is tops at 3282, followed by Ryan Pressly at 3256 and Sims again at 3245. 

For sliders Corbin Burnes averages 2983 and then it's 3 relievers above 2900 with Austin Adams, Peter Strzelecki and Bryan Abreu.

Anything over 3000 would be outlier territory even as a reliever. Unheard of for a starter. 

[Doctor Gast]

I had high hopes for Canterino & they keep trying to keep him as a starter but where did that get him? With constant arm problems like Canterino, I don't see him ever becoming a SP. IMO they should focus him as a RP & wait & see if he get through these injuries then maybe try him at SP

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

I had high hopes for Canterino & they keep trying to keep him as a starter but where did that get him? With constant arm problems like Canterino, I don't see him ever becoming a SP. IMO they should focus him as a RP & wait & see if he get through these injuries then maybe try him at SP

Not to mention he could be earning real MLB money next year as a RP......build him up as a RP for a year (half in the minors, half in the majors if he's good enough) and then see how his arm feels.....otherwise those pitches are just going to be used in the minors next year (and we know he won't go more than 3-4 innings or so like Raya next year).

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

36 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I had high hopes for Canterino & they keep trying to keep him as a starter but where did that get him? With constant arm problems like Canterino, I don't see him ever becoming a SP. IMO they should focus him as a RP & wait & see if he get through these injuries then maybe try him at SP

I am not sure it was constant arm issues for Priellip,  he had the tommy john and then the brace.  1 injury that took 2 surgeries to repair.  Now if he is torqueing the arm too hard which continually tears down the elbow, that is one thing,  which could be accurate,  but making him a reliever now without even seeing if he can hold up to be an elite starter seems immensely short sited.   Good relievers are so much easier to find and cheaper than good starters.  The risk reward heavily favors continuing to develop him as a starter.  

[chpettit19]

52 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I had high hopes for Canterino & they keep trying to keep him as a starter but where did that get him? With constant arm problems like Canterino, I don't see him ever becoming a SP. IMO they should focus him as a RP & wait & see if he get through these injuries then maybe try him at SP

I don't think you can blame Canterino's situation on them using him as a starter. He averaged just over 3 innings a start in the minors. 

Maxed out at 72 pitches his first year. Went 63, 83, 79, 60, 26, and 40 in pitches thrown in 2021. And only cracked 60 pitches 3 times in 13 appearances in 2022. As others have mentioned, he's had numerous different injuries. In Spring Training this year he threw 14 pitches on 2/29 and 21 pitches on 3/6 before hurting his rotator cuff and then hurting it again without throwing a single in-game pitch this season. He's an outlier that you can't compare to much of anything. Not everything bad that happens is because somebody did something wrong. Sometimes a guy's body just can't hold up. See Buxton, Byron as another example.

As for Prielipp, I'd hope they have him on a plan to build up his innings over the next few years to see if he can be a starter. The Garrett Crochet route would be a great result for Connor. They have a lot of smart people looking at his medicals and they should make the best decisions to maximize his career. Whether that be in the pen or the rotation or a combination over the years.

[Doctor Gast]

55 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think you can blame Canterino's situation on them using him as a starter. He averaged just over 3 innings a start in the minors. 

Maxed out at 72 pitches his first year. Went 63, 83, 79, 60, 26, and 40 in pitches thrown in 2021. And only cracked 60 pitches 3 times in 13 appearances in 2022. As others have mentioned, he's had numerous different injuries. In Spring Training this year he threw 14 pitches on 2/29 and 21 pitches on 3/6 before hurting his rotator cuff and then hurting it again without throwing a single in-game pitch this season. He's an outlier that you can't compare to much of anything. Not everything bad that happens is because somebody did something wrong. Sometimes a guy's body just can't hold up. See Buxton, Byron as another example.

As for Prielipp, I'd hope they have him on a plan to build up his innings over the next few years to see if he can be a starter. The Garrett Crochet route would be a great result for Connor. They have a lot of smart people looking at his medicals and they should make the best decisions to maximize his career. Whether that be in the pen or the rotation or a combination over the years.

I wasn't blaming them for using him as a starter because as you said he never got to that point but their focus was on SP not RP which makes a difference in preparation. I wasn't even blaming the Twins for doing that. As I expressed IMO I think it'd be better to focus Prelipp at RP 1st.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I wasn't blaming them for using him as a starter because as you said he never got to that point but their focus was on SP not RP which makes a difference in preparation.

It meant he had more days in between throwing not very many pitches. This is along the same line of your statements that the Twins could still have Paddack and Ryan if they'd just have had Varland in long relief and making spot starts. That isn't based on anything real. Injuries happen. All the time. The most likely answer with Canterino and Prielipp is there's very little the Twins could have done to prevent their injuries.

[Mike Sixel]

He's 23 (will be 24 before the next season).....at the absolute earliest as a starter, he'd be 26, if all goes perfectly......I'm guessing more like 27. That's a long time not to make money.....

[Doctor Gast]

53 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It meant he had more days in between throwing not very many pitches. This is along the same line of your statements that the Twins could still have Paddack and Ryan if they'd just have had Varland in long relief and making spot starts. That isn't based on anything real. Injuries happen. All the time. The most likely answer with Canterino and Prielipp is there's very little the Twins could have done to prevent their injuries.

We probably will never agree, What is real is common sense. Starting pitching puts extreme pressure on the arm & if you increase the intensity on the arm over an extended amount of time you are asking for trouble. The rate that Ryan was pitching, he'd far past his past innings pitched, Paddack was pitching in his 1st year returning from 2nd TJ, he was pitching at a rate that far exceeded his previous innings pitched. Common sense is all you can go by. I don't think there is anything you can measure scientificly on each individual to see what the arm can take. Injuries may happen no matter what but if they are managed they are fewer & less severe IMO that is common sense. Common sense tells you not to jump off a cliff

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's 23 (will be 24 before the next season).....at the absolute earliest as a starter, he'd be 26, if all goes perfectly......I'm guessing more like 27. That's a long time not to make money.....

They can use him in the majors while building him up to start. It doesn't have to be done all in the minors. They don't need to make a career long decision on him next year. And he has a million in the bank already. Let's not act like he's struggling for cash. Will be interesting to see how they use him. I'd start him in AA throwing once threw the order and let his performance dictate things from there.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

They can use him in the majors while building him up to start. It doesn't have to be done all in the minors. They don't need to make a career long decision on him next year. And he has a million in the bank already. Let's not act like he's struggling for cash. Will be interesting to see how they use him. I'd start him in AA throwing once threw the order and let his performance dictate things from there.

That was my point above, put him in the majors sooner rather than later....but that means building him up as  RP and admitting it (while still leaving alive the possibility of being a starter in 2-3 years). Struggling or not, it will be 3-5 years of him losing money. That's not as good as going to the show as a RP and making real money while he builds up.. We agree on that last sentence for sure.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

It meant he had more days in between throwing not very many pitches. This is along the same line of your statements that the Twins could still have Paddack and Ryan if they'd just have had Varland in long relief and making spot starts. That isn't based on anything real. Injuries happen. All the time. The most likely answer with Canterino and Prielipp is there's very little the Twins could have done to prevent their injuries.

I agree with you there. But the odds would be better if they manage better their innings going forward. Some what like they have been doing with Raya starting with 2-3 innings & closely monitoring their arms. Even with management, there is no guarantee that either will ever make it to the MLB w/o injuries cutting it short.

[chpettit19]

49 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

We probably will never agree, What is real is common sense. Starting pitching puts extreme pressure on the arm & if you increase the intensity on the arm over an extended amount of time you are asking for trouble. The rate that Ryan was pitching, he'd far past his past innings pitched, Paddack was pitching in his 1st year returning from 2nd TJ, he was pitching at a rate that far exceeded his previous innings pitched. Common sense is all you can go by. I don't think there is anything you can measure scientificly on each individual to see what the arm can take. Injuries may happen no matter what but if they are managed they are fewer & less severe IMO that is common sense. Common sense tells you not to jump off a cliff.

Explain reliever injuries then. Why do they get hurt when they throw far fewer innings? It's not common sense, it's just you wanting to think you (not you personally, the collective "you" meaning people in general) can explain everything. Sometimes there's not an explanation. It just happens, and nobody did anything wrong.

What were their numbers? You claim they were pitching at a rate that far exceeded their previous numbers. I'll pull their numbers for you.

Joe Ryan
Innings/Start 2023: 5.6
Innings/Start 2024: 5.9- So averaged 1 more out per start

Starts on 5 days rest (instead of normal 4) 2023: 15 of 29
Starts on 5 days rest 2024: 12 of 19- So 52% last year and 63% this year

Pitches/start 2023: 92.5
Pitches/start 2024: 91- so 1 pitch less this year

Common sense says you're wrong that he was throwing "at a rate that far exceeded his previous numbers." Because he wasn't. He was throwing about the same number of innings and pitches per start while getting more rest in between starts. They were taking better care of his arm this year than last year. You are provably wrong about their usage of Joe Ryan. If he can't do what they were asking of him this year they simply can't use him as a starting pitcher.

Chris Paddack
Innings/Start 2019: 5.4
Innings/Start 2021: 4.9
Innings/Start 2024: 5.2- So below his career best year, 1 out higher than his last season of starting more than 5 games

Starts on 5 days rest 2019: 16 of 26
Starts on 5 days rest 2021: 7 of 22
Starts on 5 days rest 2024: 8 of 17 So 61.5% his rookie year then 31.8% and 47% this year. Again, below his career best year but much better than his last year starting for the Pads.

Pitches/start 2019: 74.4
Pitches/start 2021: 72.6
Pitches/start 2024: 85.8- Clearly a career high.

Paddack was getting way more rest than his last fulltime starting season but throwing many more pitches per start. But nothing crazy. He went 6 innings in 4 of 17 starts. 

If the Twins need to baby guys more than they already do they're going to need the league to expand the 26-man roster to a 30-man roster. And get rid of the required stay in AAA for demotions. And get rid of the rule on sending guys down only 5 times a year. You just can't manage a roster the way you want them to. Carrying 6+ pitchers who you can't use for 3+ days at a time just isn't feasible.

Normal rest for a starting pitcher is 4 days. The Twins have started a guy on 4 days rest in just 34 games. They've started a guy with 5 days (so 1 extra day) rest 78 times. And 6+ days (kind of a funny stat cuz it includes DH starts or spot starts from Varland, etc.) 24 times. The Twins are playing their 138th game tonight. So 57% of the time they're giving their starting pitcher an extra day of rest. If their starters can't hold up in this conditions they simply can't be used as starting pitchers in the majors.

[Doctor Gast]

11 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I agree with you there. But the odds would be better if they manage better their innings going forward. Some what like they have been doing with Raya starting with 2-3 innings & closely monitoring their arms. Even with management, there is no guarantee that either will ever make it to the MLB w/o injuries cutting it short.

I'd like to clarify that Prelipp & Canterino are totally different than Raya. Raya is a young pitcher who is susceptible to injury, drafted young. Prelipp & Canterino's arms were shot when drafted. Therefore since Raya's innings have been monitored he hasn't had any serious injuries & is on his way to a possible prosperous SP career, although he might start out in the MLB as an opener. While Prelipp & Canterino development would need a longer & more stringent pitch count regiment to get them back on track & are probably doomed to the BP long term IMO. Any SP role IMO would be short-term & limited.

IMO since Prelipp, the Twins will probably steer away from drafting damaged pitching prospects & SPs from Rice. & focus more on prep high-end arms so they can properly develop them.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd like to clarify that Prelipp & Canterino are totally different than Raya. Raya is a young pitcher who is susceptible to injury, drafted young. Prelipp & Canterino's arms were shot when drafted. Therefore since Raya's innings have been monitored he hasn't had any serious injuries & is on his way to a possible prosperous SP career, although he might start out in the MLB as an opener. While Prelipp & Canterino development would need a longer & more stringent pitch count regiment to get them back on track & are probably doomed to the BP long term IMO. Any SP role IMO would be short-term & limited.

IMO since Prelipp, the Twins will probably steer away from drafting damaged pitching prospects & SPs from Rice. & focus more on prep high-end arms so they can properly develop them.

They drafted 12 college pitchers and 1 prep pitcher this year.  12 & 2 last year.  That trend has been going on for a few years.  I doubt we see them drafting enough prep arms to call it a focus.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

14 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's 23 (will be 24 before the next season).....at the absolute earliest as a starter, he'd be 26, if all goes perfectly......I'm guessing more like 27. That's a long time not to make money.....

Mike it is relative,  he signed a 1.825 million contract.  Yes taxes and yes he has expenses but can use some of the money for living expenses and can have it earn money as well.  As to his track.  I could see him in the big leagues in 2026 on an innings limitation if all goes well next year.  Could start in AA, or continue in A+ ball and moved to AA mid year.  Then starting in AAA in 2026.   Innings at 110 to 120 next year.  140 to 150 in 2026.  

[Doctor Gast]

44 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They drafted 12 college pitchers and 1 prep pitcher this year.  12 & 2 last year.  That trend has been going on for a few years.  I doubt we see them drafting enough prep arms to call it a focus.

I stated "high-end" draft picks meaning basically 1st round in reference to prep arms. I don't see lower picks change any from picking college arms. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I stated "high-end" draft picks meaning basically 1st round in reference to prep arms. I don't see lower picks change any from picking college arms. 

They have been willing to take a high school arm generally in the first 3 rounds,  Questad is an anomoly in my mind.  That he was willing to take 500k.  But for him, it actually might work out ok.  Need to see where he is next year, but this year was a little rough for him.  As to the Twins they are taking 1 very high upside high school/college arm in most drafts.  Here are the high school picks.  

2017  2nd Landon Leach   3rd Blayne Enlow

2018 - none  

2019 - none  (Canterino 2nd)   

Ignore 2020 draft

2021 -  1st  Petty 

2022 -  none  (picked Priellip in second)

2023-   CB Soto ,  5th Questad

2024 - CB 2nd round  Dasan Hill

 

Other than 2018 they took a high end arm in the first 3 rounds.  It has generally leaned towards more high school pitchers,  but they will take a high end arm whether it is college or high school , in those early rounds.  

[Doctor Gast]

40 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

They have been willing to take a high school arm generally in the first 3 rounds,  Questad is an anomoly in my mind.  That he was willing to take 500k.  But for him, it actually might work out ok.  Need to see where he is next year, but this year was a little rough for him.  As to the Twins they are taking 1 very high upside high school/college arm in most drafts.  Here are the high school picks.  

2017  2nd Landon Leach   3rd Blayne Enlow

2018 - none  

2019 - none  (Canterino 2nd)   

Ignore 2020 draft

2021 -  1st  Petty 

2022 -  none  (picked Priellip in second)

2023-   CB Soto ,  5th Questad

2024 - CB 2nd round  Dasan Hill

 

Other than 2018 they took a high end arm in the first 3 rounds.  It has generally leaned towards more high school pitchers,  but they will take a high end arm whether it is college or high school , in those early rounds.  

Thank you Hawkeye for this info. IMO in the recent past Twins didn't have much luck with high-end prep  pitching draftees & was quick to unload Petty instead of keeping & developing him. But IMO they have figured it out and went heavy in '23 & '24 by picking up 3 high-end prep pitchers they liked.

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I stated "high-end" draft picks meaning basically 1st round in reference to prep arms. I don't see lower picks change any from picking college arms. 

My bad.  I didn't catch that part of it.  I would not have minded if they took Cam Caminiti instead of Culpepper with their 1st round pick.

[Doctor Gast]

13 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

My bad.  I didn't catch that part of it.  I would not have minded if they took Cam Caminiti instead of Culpepper with their 1st round pick.

NP. Basically 1st round for high-end can & should go a bit further down. Was Caminiti available? I have to admit I wasn't invested as much this past year.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Mike it is relative,  he signed a 1.825 million contract.  Yes taxes and yes he has expenses but can use some of the money for living expenses and can have it earn money as well.  As to his track.  I could see him in the big leagues in 2026 on an innings limitation if all goes well next year.  Could start in AA, or continue in A+ ball and moved to AA mid year.  Then starting in AAA in 2026.   Innings at 110 to 120 next year.  140 to 150 in 2026.  

I mean, you just agreed with me. If all goes well, he'll be in the majors for a limited time in two years....