Awaiting Another MRI, Chris Paddack's Outlook Grows Murkier

[arby58]

16 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'm afraid we are stuck with Paddack. The Twins don't know how to unload players unless we want someone worse in return. Hopefully, Paddack will come back & give us something for a return. 

Exactly 'who knows' how to unload players? The Twins seemed to do ok with 'unloading' Cruz. When you're a top team (and the Twins are currently 4th best in the American League) unloading players isn't really your primary concern.

[arby58]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins would certainly benefit from Paddack's return to pitching. Even if it was out of the bullpen. Minnesota needs to get out from under his $7.5MM contract if they can.
The Twins have a ton of money locked up in Correa NTC, Lopez, Buxton NTC, Vazquez and Paddack compared to their expected max payroll around $125MM. $36MM + $21.5MM + $15MM + $10MM + $7.5MM = $90MM. Dobnak is $3MM, Alcala is $1.5MM. Then buyouts for Farmer and Jackson at $0.5MM. That puts the Twins at $95MM. Roughly $30MM to spend on 19 players, including guys in line for big raises.
$4.5MM Joe Ryan Arb 1
$4.5MM Bailey Ober Arb 1
$3MM Griffin Jax Arb 1
$2MM Jhoan Duran Arb 1
$1MM Brock Stewart Arb 1
$8MM Willi Castro Arb 3
$5MM Royce Lewis Arb 1
$3MM Ryan Jeffers Arb 1
$2MM Trevor Larnach Arb 1
$1.5MM Alex Kirilloff Arb 2

If the Twins don't shed any of these guys, that puts us at about $130MM, plus another $8MM to round out the 26 man roster near league minimum so $138MM.

This is the true payroll situation the Twins find themselves in. Probably needing to find about $10-15MM of payroll shedding someplace assuming no signings.

They've got a good core, it's not as if they need to chase starting pitching as long as they keep developing the young pitchers (that is what the Guardians have done for years). I don't see the payroll next year as a red flag.

[arby58]

11 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

No big loss.  Just another fringe starter we should have never traded for. 

Lots of people thought we were trading a great closer for him, until Rodgers wasn't.

[Doctor Gast]

6 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Exactly 'who knows' how to unload players? The Twins seemed to do ok with 'unloading' Cruz. When you're a top team (and the Twins are currently 4th best in the American League) unloading players isn't really your primary concern.

Agreed, but I don't consider the Cruz trade as an unload (flipping). Cruz was a valuable asset for the Twins the entire time he was with the Twins well worth the price. Unfortunately for TB he was not. If MN was still in the hunt Cruz would not have been moved.

LAD seems to have that knack for unloading players.

[David Maro]

He is another example of trading a good RP to save money.They got a RP who couldn't find the zone and a SP with a dead arm who has more days on the IL than the field.

I think it is time to move on from the Paddocks and the Stewart's just like they finally did with Michael P who started all this sign and wait and see.

Let's move forward with the SP they have that actually take the mound every 5th day.

[arby58]

9 minutes ago, David Maro said:

He is another example of trading a good RP to save money.They got a RP who couldn't find the zone and a SP with a dead arm who has more days on the IL than the field.

I think it is time to move on from the Paddocks and the Stewart's just like they finally did with Michael P who started all this sign and wait and see.

Let's move forward with the SP they have that actually take the mound every 5th day.

Taylor Rodgers, if that is what you are referring to, wasn't a 'good RP' the year they traded him. He went 4-8, 4.76 ERA, with an ERA+ OF 82. Those are awful/semi-awful for a relief pitcher. 

[arby58]

14 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Agreed, but I don't consider the Cruz trade as an unload (flipping). Cruz was a valuable asset for the Twins the entire time he was with the Twins well worth the price. Unfortunately for TB he was not. If MN was still in the hunt Cruz would not have been moved.

LAD seems to have that knack for unloading players.

Well, that was my original point, which I know you get. Teams that are in the play-offs or play-offs hunt aren't unloading potential assets. Paddock is still a potential asset come October (and also maybe next year) so he isn't going anywhere, and that is the right move by the Twins given their current station in MLB.

[rv78]

Paddack is just another example of how this FO doesn't recognize the cost of injured players. True, they can get those injured or injury prone players cheap, but what do they really have? A player that can't be counted on, takes up roster space and requires another player to fill in for them when they can't play. So now they pay two players and tie up 2 spots on the 40 man roster for what should be 1 spot and 1 salary. Buxton is a perfect example, if he could be counted on they wouldn't have had to sign a Margot, who adds payroll and takes up another spot on the 40 man. 

[LambchoP]

I'd say if Paddack can come back healthy for the playoffs it'll probably be in relief like he did last year. I'm fine with that, he did great last year. As for 2025, 7.5 million for a SP is pretty cheap. I'd say, if there is a team out there who would take on his contract AND give us something I'd do it. Only if it frees up payroll to sign a 2-3 type SP though. As we've seen year after year, you NEVER have enough pitching. I think our lineup should be fine. I'd like Santana for another year. Our pitching staff could use some help though. I think we're one solid SP and two lefties and another righty in RP away from being world series contenders 

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

No I didn't, That trade decimated our catching depth from one of the best to much worse. & 3B became worse. Did you forget? 

Urshela had a better season than Donaldson in 2022. Donaldson  Garver caught 14 games in 2022. He was more a DH than a catcher. Rortvert did not become a 1/2 time catcher until this year. Give Tampa Bay the credit for that. 

[Maybe Next Year]

I’m curious as to whether or not the Twins had Paddack’s contract insured. If so, and if he can’t pitch next year, perhaps the $7.5 million hit to payroll won’t be in play.

[PatPfund]

16 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins would certainly benefit from Paddack's return to pitching. Even if it was out of the bullpen. Minnesota needs to get out from under his $7.5MM contract if they can.
The Twins have a ton of money locked up in Correa NTC, Lopez, Buxton NTC, Vazquez and Paddack compared to their expected max payroll around $125MM. $36MM + $21.5MM + $15MM + $10MM + $7.5MM = $90MM. Dobnak is $3MM, Alcala is $1.5MM. Then buyouts for Farmer and Jackson at $0.5MM. That puts the Twins at $95MM. Roughly $30MM to spend on 19 players, including guys in line for big raises.
$4.5MM Joe Ryan Arb 1
$4.5MM Bailey Ober Arb 1
$3MM Griffin Jax Arb 1
$2MM Jhoan Duran Arb 1
$1MM Brock Stewart Arb 1
$8MM Willi Castro Arb 3
$5MM Royce Lewis Arb 1
$3MM Ryan Jeffers Arb 1
$2MM Trevor Larnach Arb 1
$1.5MM Alex Kirilloff Arb 2

If the Twins don't shed any of these guys, that puts us at about $130MM, plus another $8MM to round out the 26 man roster near league minimum so $138MM.

This is the true payroll situation the Twins find themselves in. Probably needing to find about $10-15MM of payroll shedding someplace assuming no signings.

Loved this. My hope (like the OP's) is that Paddack is OK for next year, though renewed arm issues make it seem like he might be better in the bullpen (dominant for shorter stretches in-game, but longer stretches season-wise). Honestly, if Vázquez keeps hitting, I'd probably look to trade him and Larnach ($12 million minus whatever comes back), and I wouldn't offer arbitration to Kirilloff or Stewart (a few more million). Don't see any way out on the Sheriff, so they'll need to use him if they can, or eat money if they can't.

[Brandon]

18 hours ago, DJL44 said:

This season is the 3rd highest innings pitched total of Paddack's MLB career. He has pitched 140 innings once, 5 years ago. Paddack gave the Twins about what I expected to get from him this season.

I said 110 innings because he is at 88 right now and 4 or 5 starts in September should get him to 110 before he goes to the pen for the playoffs.

[DJL44]

12 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I said 110 innings because he is at 88 right now and 4 or 5 starts in September should get him to 110 before he goes to the pen for the playoffs.

I will take the under on the Twins getting 22 more innings from Paddack this season.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Maybe Next Year said:

I’m curious as to whether or not the Twins had Paddack’s contract insured. If so, and if he can’t pitch next year, perhaps the $7.5 million hit to payroll won’t be in play.

That'd be pretty unheard of for an amount like $7.5MM, but even if the Twins did have a policy for Paddack, they'd be insured for maybe 50-80% of his salary. Plus, the premiums of Paddack would be huge because of his injury history. In fact, based on his small salary and injury history, he's probably uninsurable.

[bean5302]

26 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I will take the under on the Twins getting 22 more innings from Paddack this season.

Yeah. I do not see Paddack making another start for the Twins this year. The fact he's not even getting considered for a full effort ramp up, let alone a rehab assignment until the results of an MRI scheduled 2 weeks out is reviewed tells me he's a mid September return at the earliest. He hasn't even begun a throwing program, apparently?

So say things come back all nice and pretty and the Twins clear Paddack for a throwing program, he might get a couple bullpen sessions done by early September. If everything looks good, he'd get cleared for a rehab assignment where he's almost certainly be a bullpen arm. Having not pitched for 2 months at that point, he'd need at least 2-3 bullpen appearances before the Twins would call him back up which could maybe happen maybe a few days before a 60 day IL timeframe. No way he gets stretched out in time for more than a single regular season start.

[USAFChief]

41 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

That'd be pretty unheard of for an amount like $7.5MM, but even if the Twins did have a policy for Paddack, they'd be insured for maybe 50-80% of his salary. Plus, the premiums of Paddack would be huge because of his injury history. In fact, based on his small salary and injury history, he's probably uninsurable.

It's my understanding there are no contracts insured any longer.

 

[Linus]

On 8/18/2024 at 1:50 PM, bean5302 said:

Yeah. I do not see Paddack making another start for the Twins this year. The fact he's not even getting considered for a full effort ramp up, let alone a rehab assignment until the results of an MRI scheduled 2 weeks out is reviewed tells me he's a mid September return at the earliest. He hasn't even begun a throwing program, apparently?

So say things come back all nice and pretty and the Twins clear Paddack for a throwing program, he might get a couple bullpen sessions done by early September. If everything looks good, he'd get cleared for a rehab assignment where he's almost certainly be a bullpen arm. Having not pitched for 2 months at that point, he'd need at least 2-3 bullpen appearances before the Twins would call him back up which could maybe happen maybe a few days before a 60 day IL timeframe. No way he gets stretched out in time for more than a single regular season start.

Plus I think the minor league affiliates are done around Labor Day. AAA goes until mid September I think so options for a rehab assignment are pretty limited.