Should the Twins Want the Guardians to Go All-In at the MLB Trade Deadline?

[Cody Christie]

Going all-in at the MLB trade deadline can be a tricky proposition for a front office. Should Twins fans hope that Cleveland mortgages their farm system on the 2024 season?

Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

As the 2024 MLB trade deadline approaches, the Cleveland Guardians find themselves at a crucial juncture. Historically known for their prudent, calculated approach, the Guardians are in a position where they could consider going all-in. This strategy could propel them from playoff contenders to serious World Series threats. Here’s why the Guardians should seize this moment and push their chips to the center of the table. If they do, it could alter the current and future landscape of the AL Central. 

Earlier this week, MLB.com created a list of teams that should go all-in before the trade deadline. Only one AL Central team, the Guardians, was featured. Cleveland has been near the top of the AL for most of the season, and other contenders have shown their weaknesses. It might be years before the Guardians are in this kind of position again, making it even more tempting for their front office to deal prospects to make some blockbuster moves.

Cleveland has a solid roster with plenty of firepower to win in October. However, despite this strong foundation, there are evident gaps that, if addressed, could significantly enhance their postseason prospects. A potent bat to complement José Ramírez and a reliable arm to bolster the bullpen could make the difference between a deep playoff run and an early exit.

The American League is competitive, but also wide open. Traditional powerhouses like the Yankees and Astros have shown vulnerability, and while teams like the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners remain formidable, there is no clear juggernaut. This parity provides an opportunity for the Guardians to make a well-timed, strategic push.

Entering last season, the Guardians boasted one of the top farm systems in baseball. MLB Pipeline had Cleveland ranked as a top-5 system as recently as spring training in 2023, but things change quickly in the prospect landscape. In 2024, the Guardians rank in the league's bottom half, with only two prospects ranking in MLB Pipeline's top 80. Prospects like Chase DeLauter (OF), Kyle Manzardo (1B), Jaison Chourio (OF), and Ralphy Velazquez (1B) are particularly noteworthy. Compiling a prospect package for multiple blockbuster trades will be difficult without a top-100 pitching prospect.

Baseball is a game of windows, and the Guardians’ window is open. With a mix of veteran leadership and youthful exuberance, they are poised to make a significant run. However, windows can close quickly, too, due to injuries, regression, or other unforeseen circumstances. Capitalizing on the present moment by making strategic acquisitions is essential.

Going all-in is not without risks. Trading top prospects can deplete a farm system that has already dropped in recent rankings. Moreover, the Guardians have shown an ability to develop talent consistently. Their scouting and player development departments are among the best in the league. This competence provides a safety net, ensuring that the pipeline will continue to produce even if they part with some top prospects. However, the Guardians are in a position where the potential rewards far outweigh the risks. Winning a World Series is the ultimate goal, and opportunities to contend at this level do not come around often.

Cleveland has one of baseball’s toughest second-half schedules, and the Twins have slowly been tracking them down in the standings. Similarly to the Twins, the Guardians face payroll limitations because of their market size. David Blitzer bought a minority stake in the Guardians in 2022, and the plan is for him to become the majority owner in six years or less. He may push Cleveland to be aggressive at this trade deadline, to help his asset have more long-term value. 

For Twins fans, Cleveland going all-in might be a blessing in disguise. Depleting their already low-ranking farm system helps Minnesota compete for the long term. There are also no guarantees that Cleveland will win when it comes to October, or even that they'll get there. The best regular season teams rarely win the World Series because there is more volatility in a short series than in a 162-game season. Last season, two Wild Card teams made the World Series. There is an element of luck and chance when it comes to October baseball.

The 2024 Cleveland Guardians are at a pivotal moment. With a strong core and a competitive yet open American League, the stage is set for them to make a bold move. By going all-in before the trade deadline, the Guardians can transform from a likely playoff team to an even more legitimate World Series contender. This might hurt the Twins for the current season, but it can have long-term reverberations for the rest of the AL Central, and some of those might be positive from the perspective of Twins fans.

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Will the Guardians go all in? Can the Twins benefit from Cleveland trading off assets? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[tony&rodney]

An interesting idea - whether the Twins should think about another team and how they use/exchange/accumulate players.

My thought is that the Twins need to focus solely on their own team and what weaknesses need to be addressed.

The trades of A. J. Puk and Randy Arozarena did not include Top 100 prospects or even top 10 club minor leaguers. The Twins have definite thoughts on all players and it will be interesting to see whether there is a belief that an exchange of Twins guys for another team's guys will help the team in 2024. 

[Dman]

I wouldn't put a ton of stock in top 100 lists.  The Royals haven't had a good overall farm system in a long time and with a few good free agency signings and a younger core of performing players they are in the hunt for the division title and they still have a low end farm system.

The Guardians traditionally haven't done well on top 100 lists because pitching doesn't play well on top 100 lists and they continue to churn out pitching.  With this last draft if they sign all 5 high school pitchers plus the college arms they took then this past draft is going to set them up very well for the next five years and if those players work out the next decade.

To the point of the article yes I would love to see Cleveland waste some young controllable talent for just a year or two of higher priced veteran talent, but their FO is far too savvy to do that.  IMO, If they make a move it will be around the edges and they will continue to trust in and rely on the players they have on the team and in the system.  I do agree they have the capital to make a move and the right move could push them to another level, but will they take that risk for this team?  I think they play it safe and stick with what they have.

In the same vein I am hoping the Twins don't give up major assets at the deadline.  I think they should keep the farm strong and stay away from trading their top 100 prospects.  I know I will get killed for this but I do think they should continue on the Tampa, Oakland, Cleveland path of trading expensive players and building from the farm.

That being said this team feels close to a complete team.  A top of the rotation arm would help them quite a bit, but I still believe in the guys we have.  We need all of them to perform well to get to a WS as it is. If the entire team doesn't perform it won't matter who they get at the deadline. However, If this team can peak at the right time I think they can do it with the guys they have.

 

[Blyleven2011]

It will be exciting to find out  , Cleveland and twins right now are in the complete opposite position they were in last year , Cleveland didn't add at deadline and because of that the twins held pat  , Cleveland did aquire later some waivers from the angels  but the twins still won the division in 2023  ...

Cost conscious Cleveland will most likely see if the cost conscious twins add anything , before countering  with their own moves ...

[LambchoP]

I doubt the Guards go crazy, it's not their style. They may add one or two pieces but they value their prospects too much. That trade for AJ Puk made me sad. It's exactly what the twins needed for their bullpen and he wasn't even that expensive. Two guys outside the top ten! If we turn around and get Tanner Scott without giving up a top ten guy then I'll forgive them completely:)

[Doctor Gast]

30 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I doubt the Guards go crazy, it's not their style. They may add one or two pieces but they value their prospects too much. That trade for AJ Puk made me sad. It's exactly what the twins needed for their bullpen and he wasn't even that expensive. Two guys outside the top ten! If we turn around and get Tanner Scott without giving up a top ten guy then I'll forgive them completely:)

Me too. I've been following MIA since Lopez started to heat up. IMO PUK would have been our best buy. Scott hasn't been traded yet because MIA is holding out for more. It wouldn't bother me one bit if they trade Gonzales. That's one of my reasons for the Twins to be buyers. I don't expect CLE to go all in. They have their system which is pretty good for them.

[LambchoP]

Puk is controllable for two more seasons as well. We could have gotten him for Gonzalez alone I bet! Tanner Scott would be great, but he's only a rental and he's going to cost us someone like Severino, Keaschal, Morris....

[USAFChief]

Don't really care what Cleveland does. Except that present MLB players end up worth more than prospects way more often than the other way around. So I hope they don't "go for it."

Hoard those prospects, Cleveland. 

I do care that AJ Puk isn't a Minnesota Twin though. Why isn't he? 

[terrydactyls]

Puk cost the D-Backs their #14 and #30 prospects.  The Twins' #14 and #30 prospects are Danny De Andrade and Dylan Quisted.  I could have lived with that.

[Riverbrian]

Buyers buy and Sellers sell. 

Either way is progress toward an eventual positive outcome. 

If a team does neither... they are standing still.  

My wish for Cleveland is that they stand still. 

[Eris]

Going all-in is a poor idea for any team as winning in the playoffs often comes down to 1 play made or not made or 1 key at bat with the bases loaded. The objective at trade deadline is to make wise trades that help with the current season but don’t sacrifice the future. 
 

Steve Pearce was the World Series 2018 MVP  

https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-acquire-steve-pearce-from-blue-jays-c283420492

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, Eris said:

Going all-in is a poor idea for any team as winning in the playoffs often comes down to 1 play made or not made or 1 key at bat with the bases loaded. The objective at trade deadline is to make wise trades that help with the current season but don’t sacrifice the future. 
 

Steve Pearce was the World Series 2018 MVP  

https://www.mlb.com/news/red-sox-acquire-steve-pearce-from-blue-jays-c283420492

Houston and Verlander say hello.

[purplesoldier4u]

"Similarly to the Twins, the Guardians face payroll limitations because of their market size." Nonsense. The Royals, Padres, and Tigers have significantly higher payrolls than the Twins and Indians. Both teams couls easily afford to be in the $85m range, they just choose not to. Clevland has the youngest team in the league and could make a serious run at a title if the spent $20m+ more!

[Eris]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Houston and Verlander say hello.

At the time of the trade Drew Gilbert , Astros top prospect was ranked 68 overall. A similar trade would be Festa or Keaschall and a lesser prospect. 

[tony&rodney]

12 hours ago, Eris said:

At the time of the trade Drew Gilbert , Astros top prospect was ranked 68 overall. A similar trade would be Festa or Keaschall and a lesser prospect. 

Some things to consider: 1) Houston has money and pay JV $12M for 2024. 2) Verlander is a difference maker. 3) There isn't really any deals like that available this year.

I agree that someone like Verlander would require a loss of maybe Keaschall and .... Morris or Culpepper (SP). The ask for Snell will be less than that because he is a rental and never a sure thing. The risk associated with Snell and then a subsequent triggering of the $30M option if Blake is injured should substantially reduce his value. We shall see. As I always say, we are just guessing. I was surprised at the reasonable cost for both Puk and Arozarena. Then again, I think both of those players are good and others do not.

[Major League Ready]

17 hours ago, purplesoldier4u said:

"Similarly to the Twins, the Guardians face payroll limitations because of their market size." Nonsense. The Royals, Padres, and Tigers have significantly higher payrolls than the Twins and Indians. Both teams couls easily afford to be in the $85m range, they just choose not to. Clevland has the youngest team in the league and could make a serious run at a title if the spent $20m+ more!

The Tigers and Royals both have lower payrolls than the twins and if you check the standings the Twins and Guardians have better records than the Royals, Tigers, and Padres.

Twins Adjusted Payroll Total

Royals Adjusted Payroll Total

Tigers Adjusted Payroll Total