2024 Twins 10-round Mock Draft: Will Twins Go College Bat Again in the Late First Round?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

One of my favorite pieces to write each year is a 10-round, Twins-only mock draft. It almost always proves to be an exercise in futility, but it tries to give an idea of what direction the Twins may take throughout the three-day draft.

Image courtesy of © Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

It should go without saying, no team knows how the draft and their draft board will play out. The Twins don't know who will be available with their first pick, let alone their 10th-round pick. Regardless, it's a fun undertaking.

First, some history: The inaugural Twins mock was posted in 2014. Nick Gordon (Round 1) and Max Murphy (Round 9) were hits. But only three (including Gordon) ever made a major league appearance. There were two more hits in 2015 (Kyle Cody and Trey Cabbage). I was taking Jake Cronenworth in the seventh round - which was where he was selected - but as a pitcher. Cronenworth went on to finish runner-up in the 2020 Rookie of the Year race and made the All-Star game in 2021. In 2016, I only correctly predicted Alex Kirilloff.  My last attempt before a long hiatus came in 2017 when I incorrectly projected the Twins to select Kyle Wright. My streak of getting at least one right continued, though, as I correctly pegged Blayne Enlow going to the Twins.

The Twins-only mock draft returned in 2022, but it was a dud. For the first time, I dropped an "oh-fer." I should have taken the L and retired the bit, but I came back in 2023 only to lay another egg. 

Yet here I am in 2024 giving it another shot. Like someone said before me, "I don't do that slump thing," so I'm bound to get one right this year. (Or not.)

Some quick rules: Using Jamie Cameron's Consensus Board, I'm not allowed to take guys that *should* be gone, but I'll give myself 10% of the pick. For example, for pick 21, I can't pick anyone in the top 18. For pick 60, I can't pick anyone in the top 54 and so on. On the flip side, I can take anyone after that. So for pick 21, anyone beginning with the 19th ranked player is eligible.

Round 1 (Pick 21 - $3,934,400): Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky. Carson Benge (OF, Tennessee) is where I'm leaning currently, but he's ranked 15th and outside my eligibility to pick him (so I'll take that as a W if it happens). I'm going to stick to that demographic and the SEC with Waldschmidt, who ranks 26th presently, and fits with the Twins as his analytics come back positively.

FA Comp (Pick 33 - $2,766,100): Braylon Doughty, RHP, California prep. I'm fairly confident that if the Twins select a college hitter first, they'll back that up with a prep pitcher. Someone like William Schmidt, Kash Mayfield, or Ryan Sloan will still be available, but the highest-rated prep pitcher I can draft is Doughty, who ranks 40th. Doughty has a mid-90s fastball and a high-spin slider. 

Round 2 (Pick 60 - $1,453,700): Braylon Payne, OF, Texas prep. Payne is a shot on upside. Standing at 61st on the board, Payne is one of the youngest and fastest players in the draft. The bat and power are bigger question marks, but he has quick hands and a chance to develop. 

Comp Round B (Pick 69 - $1,168,000): Kyle DeBarge, SS, Louisiana-Lafayette. DeBarge, currently ranked 65th, is a big prospect in a small package, only standing 5' 9", but has the tools to succeed in pro ball. He's got great bat-to-ball skills, a good eye, plus speed, a plus arm, and sneaky power. He might not be a shortstop for the long term, but he has all the tools if a move is required to the outfield or across the infield. 

Round 3 (Pick 96 - $759,700): Daniel Eagen, RHP, Presbyterian. Mentioned Eagen here before he impressed at the combine. He's still developing, as evidenced by his fastball jump this spring, and the Twins might even be able to coax more out of his 6' 4" frame. 

Round 4 (Pick 126 - $567,400): Kyle DeGroat, RHP, New York prep. DeGroat checks in at #178 on the consensus board, but is going to be expensive to buy out of a Texas commitment. DeGroat committed to the previous regime, so it may be easier to persuade him to go the professional route. He currently features a low-to-mid-90s fastball and a plus curveball. He's a bit undersized, built similarly to last year's 5th-round pick Dylan Questad.

Round 5 (Pick 159 - $411,000): Everett Catlett, LHP, Georgetown. Catlett is a towering presence at 6' 7" and only has 122 college innings on his arm, with 77 2/3 being thrown this year. As a senior, non-combine player, Catlett should come with significant savings, but most importantly the Twins have had success developing big pitchers (Bailey Ober) and guys from the northeast (David Festa). Catlett, ranking 299th with a mid-90s fastball and a mid-80s slider, could be the next in line. 

Round 6 (Pick 188 - $320,800): Jakob Wright, LHP, Cal Poly. The Twins can get all the information they want on Wright as they've taken a player from Cal Poly recently and probably have a decent relationship with Cal Poly's head coach too. Wright, ranked 187th, is an excellent athlete and has a really good complement of pitches. The Twins will draft him, add 5 mph to his low-90s fastball, and let the rest of his pitches - led by his sweeper - do more damage.

Round 7 (Pick 218 - $251,500): Lebarron Johnson Jr, RHP, Texas. The Twins would likely be looking for a pitcher to strike a deal with in this area to save some money. Johnson, ranked 201st, has a year of eligibility left and went to the combine, but already 22, should come with savings. He's got a high-90s fastball but a still projectable (6' 5", 210 lb) body. He pitched exclusively in relief this year.

Round 8 (Pick 248 - $207,800): Nathan Knowles, RHP, William and Mary. Knowles is another college relief pitcher but has a chance to start. His fastball is low-90s and also throws a curveball, cutter, and change-up. He's ranked 232nd and there doesn't look to be a lot of physical projection left.

Round 9 (Pick 278 - $189,500): Nathan Flewelling, C, Canada prep. A complete departure from the norm here. A left-handed-hitting prep from Canada in the 9th round is not where I expected to add a catcher, but the earlier picks didn't line up to take a college one and Flewelling had a good showing at the combine and won't turn 18 until November. It's a shot and might cost a good chunk extra to buy him out of Gonzaga, but, heck, why not?

Round 10 (Pick 308 - $179,700): Jeremiah Jenkins, 1B, Maine. I get it. It's probably going to be a pitcher. Same as the last round, but I stumbled upon Jenkins, ranked 463rd, and wanted to get him on here. We're probably looking at a Day 3 pick, but Jenkins has big-time power (over 20 home runs each of the last two years) and better plate discipline than someone with said power (74 walks to only 70 strikeouts the last two years). He's currently playing in the Cal Ripken Summer League, where he's demonstrating the same power and plate awareness. Oh, and his 6' 4", 235-lb body has also made an appearance in the outfield. Sign me up.

So there you have it: Of the 12 projected picks. Seven pitchers, five hitters. Two of each high school hitter and pitcher. Three college hitters and five college pitchers. Lots of upside, but also a decent floor. It may not be a perfect draft, but is it good enough to get your approval? Let me know in the comments.

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[Dman]

Would have loved to see a prep bat in Gillen or Caldwell at 21, but consensus probably has them too high. Still hard not to like WaldSchmidt there with his low chase and high contact rate.  I think that's a nice pick at 21. With those skills he is likely a fast mover to boot.

I think the Braves already have an under slot deal with Doughty at 24, but could just be a rumor.  I think it depends on what is available at 33 for them to go prep arm,.  There could be some very interesting college bats that fall to 33.  I could see them trying to buy down a prep arm to pick 60 or just waiting for what's left at pick 60.  If the college bats that fit their profile are still there at 33.

Payne is a nice upside pick at 60.  Lot's of room to grow at just 17.  If you believe in the hit tool that could be a great pick.  Although older I like Dante Nori in that range as well.  His bat comes with a plus rating.  If they miss out on Caldwell, Nori seems like the next best thing to me. Similar skill set in an older player.

After that it is anyone's guess as to who they go with.  Will be interesting to see how close you get on draft day. Thanks for putting this together!

[Jamie Cameron]

This is rad @Jeremy Nygaard nice work!

[GKuehl]

Fun piece. Still, I expect to see us draft about 37 college arms who will be throwing mid-to-high 90s in 2 years. 

[2wins87]

This would be a good mix of players in the top 100.

I am starting to like the idea of going for a HS bat at 21 rather than dipping into the second or third tier of college bats, when there will probably still be some good ones to choose from with their next few picks.  I've seen Gillen getting linked to the Twins in some mocks now.

I think pick 33 or 60 would be a good time to take a shot at a HS arm.

I like the idea of DeBarge at 69 too.  There are very few likely SS in the draft, it seems like he could be a really good value pick with a decent shot of sticking at short.

Since Falvey and Levine took over, they've only drafted and signed one HS catcher, which was LaRon Smith in the 25th round of 2018.  I don't think it's a demographic that they are very keen on, but like Flewelling, Smith was also from Canada so maybe that's something

[tony&rodney]

Great writeup; always enjoy all of your work.

Leaning toward position players for the first three picks unless a top pitcher falls into their laps.

[Doctor Wu]

Great report. I know next to nothing about any of these prospects, so I appreciate all the research and information. One name jumped out at me: Kyle DeBarge, Being a big music fan, I wondered if he was related to El DeBarge or Chico DeBarge, or any other member of that singing family? 

[old nurse]

With this regime later first round picks by the Twins that were bats  areRooker, Larnach, Wallner, Cavacao,, Sabato and Miller. The results suggest they can identify a college bat better than a high school bat.. the results also show they haven’t yet found the diamond in the rough 

[TopGunn#22]

Waldschmidt makes sense.  I always appreciate the time and work you put into this Jeremy.  Projecting the MLB draft is a LOT tougher than the NFL or NBA.  

[twinstalker]

Starting in round 3 or 4 or so, I'd take Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, Cory Lewis, Andrew Morris, David Festa, a healthy CJ Culpepper, and so on.

If you have a formula that's produced those guys, screw trying to take anyone else.  I'd take the surest guys out there with my first few picks (Jenkins, Lee, Berrios), then start taking the blocks of clay in the fourth round.  Every draft should yield 15 of these guys. :-)

Fill all your positions with internationals, Eeles-type, and trades.

I'm only partially kidding.

[nova_twins]

The Twins seem increasingly comfortable building depth in the middle and late rounds, so I would guess they'll focus on upside with their early picks.

They're being linked in media to a lot of mid-upside college hitters like Waldschmidt, which is consistent with their drafting history, but I'm more inclined to see someone like Gillen, or even Brecht, college player but higher risk/ceiling.