Three Crucial Minnesota Twins Hitters Trending Up Over the Last Two Weeks

[jmlease1]

It's certainly preferable that Margot and Farmer are back to performing the way they were anticipated in the roles they were brought in/kept to perform. The problem is that they are only effective in pretty limited roles. Neither Farmer nor Margot hits RHP worth a damn at this point and there are a lot more RHP in MLB. With such a limited roster, it's a little tough to carry 2 specialists like this and not have them get exposed. Particularly in how our LH hitters have done (or failed to do) against RHP this season.

Easier to have Farmer as a bench option to come in against a tough LHP later in games if you have Ed Julien raking against RHP, or Margot doing the same when you have Wallner on a roll. Which was certainly the plan at the start of the season, and Margot & Farmer were both expected to be better defensive options than those 2 players as well. Early in the year no one held up their end of the bargain. 

We've been lucky Buxton has been healthy enough to play extensively in CF, because Margot hasn't looked like a good option there regularly. (I think he's looked better in the OF lately, but it's not crazy at all to prefer Castro or Martin out there) 

happy to see the twins not get annihilated by LHP so easily now, and Farmer and Margot have certainly helped with that recently. Concerned that their inability to hit their weight against RHP still makes them more of a liability than a true asset.

[Riverbrian]

18 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I get your point, however, Julien sucked from April 28 on and he got another 6-7 weeks & rightfully so.

Kirilloff sucked from April 24 (making up a date) on and he got 8 weeks & rightfully so.

Wallner, IMO, wasn’t sent down to not come back by Mid-May, he was poor in St Paul (still K’s at too high a rate) and had a terrible Spring. I thought he may go down for 3-4 weeks to be able to get it together - am assuming that was the hope of the FO as well. HE needs to get better!!!! HE does.

My overall problem (that the Twins are overcoming so far) is going to be the roster set up in the off-season. 

They set up this roster so they had no choice but to ride Julien and Kirilloff and they put themselves in this position by paying 6 million to Farmer and trading for Margot.

If they send Julien down... who takes that left handed role to pair with Farmer? If they send Kirilloff down... who takes that left handed role to pair with Margot? They painted themselves into this corner. 

Miranda and Martin are right handed. Emmanuel Rodriquez is the only extra left handed bat on the 40 man roster, He's exciting but only 21 and still in AA. Brooks Lee is a switch hitter and such a highly ranked prospect that he should not be platooned if he ever gets called up but it's the role needed when Julien is sent down to AAA.      

Wallner for Larnach was an easy move. Both left handed hitters that can be swapped for each other. After that... it's much harder and what they are those left handed hitters are down in the minors now. 

In order to justify Farmer and Margot now. Kepler has to be platooned. Larnach will never start against a Right Hander. With Kepler injured... Martin has to take on the role of the guy who faces right handers and sits against left handers because we have more guys in the right handers batters box than we have slots in the lineup card.   

A lot is happening to justify the presence of Farmer and Margot on this roster and that justification is a lot harder when all of the left handed hitters went away. My opinion (which could change... give me time) since the Twins set up this way... see it through especially since they are seemingly overcoming it (The Team offense stats are decent in comparison with the league) but don't do it again next off-season.   

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

I am glad that Farmer and Margot have improved enough to possibly be part of a package deal at the trade deadline.  Obviously a decent starter would be nice to acquire, but the Twins could also use more depth in their solid bullpen.  Lee is seemingly ready which ought to doom Farmer's tenure on the Twins beyond the trade deadline.  As was pointed out, at his best, Margot is not a worthy corner outfielder from a hitting perspective.  I would prefer to roll the dice on Wallner and possibly Kirilloff.

I get wanting to “get better”…..regardless of opponent recently the Team’s won somewhere around 11 of last 15 with 3 straight one run losses mixed in there. Hardly problematic.

TWINS have scored 2nd most runs in A.L. since April 21st, trailing only the Yankees. Lewis just started playing 15 games ago. We’re OK.

This is people’s reality - it’s not entertainment to them. Saying that you would “prefer to roll the dice” with a couple guys that are talented has some emotional merit - it makes zero sense for organization to get rid of a guy whose OPS is .830 over last 30 games - League average OPS is .706 as of yesterday on MLB network.

Kirilloff is hurt….. he was hitting .202. Wallner is still striking out at a 33% rate. Rolling the dice with them just doesn’t add up to me.

To me, when guys improve you continue to play them…….you don’t search for a trade partner. They were brought in at a sunk cost to do exactly what they’ve been doing for past 5 plus weeks……I do not see them going anywhere other than being DFA’d after July 31 due to lack of performance. There’s no getting ahead of the curve with these guys to get some future value in a trade.

[Doctor Gast]

12 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Keeping one year vets over young players getting playing time.  Its the Twins way.

In some cases it's valuable when you have a prospect who is doubtful to start to have a veteran place holder. But this season at 1B & OF, we had several seasoned young players who needed playing time to blossom there.  Getting Santana & Margot blocked Miranda, Kiriloff, Larnach, Wallner, Martin, Keirsey & Julien from much-needed playing time. As you can see we have quite the quality pool to fall back on w/o the need to get a veteran placeholder. I had no doubt that Martin could excel at the MLB level defensively & offensively in the OF (even though the wasted years at SS) because he's so athletic. Not only Margot blocks his playing time but also because Margot can't hit RHPs, to prop Margot up, he hits only against LHPs & (RH) hitting Martin are left to face only RHPs. This puts the Twins & Martin at a disadvantage. Before Keirsey was put on the IL he was tearing it up at AAA & deserving a MLB call up  but because of Margot that couldn't happen. Proven bats, Miranda (RH) & Kiriloff (LH) coming off arm injuries needed to be fixed at 1B to ensure their health & production, would be a formidable duo at 1B were blocked by Santana & were forced to play a more physically demanding position.

Santana & Margot both started the season very poorly & now showing value. They are both due for regression & they have a market, so trading both makes sense. To liberate our superior in-house players & recoup some of the money spent.

Farmer is a different story. He was kept because of the loss of Polanco. He also had a terrible start but has shown progress which IMO is sustainable. If we trade Margot & Santana that can free up Lee, but eventually Wallner, Kiriloff, Julien & Keirsey will bang down that door. Farmer becomes vulnerable. IMO he doesn't have the market the 2 have & he could be useful in mentoring Lee. But his days are numbered. 

[RpR]

4 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

If Farmer and Margot are 'crucial', then the Twins are in some serious trouble.

Not as bad as it will be if Julien, Wallner come  back.

[mickster]

17 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Margot and Farmer are completely disposable. It's valuable only in the way that it allows the Twins to potentially move their contracts or trade other assets. Neither player is important to the team's success. For that matter, Carlos Santana is in the same boat, except he's provided legitimate value at this point.

I would disagree, to a point on them.  If you take out the horrible early stats, they haven't been that bad recently.   Santana is potentially a fringe All-Star right now.   I think the depth value they bring, with unproven behind them is huge - we need a bigger sample from Lee and not sold on Wallner.   The others can sit until September or an injury

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

22 minutes ago, RpR said:

Not as bad as it will be if Julien, Wallner come  back.

I wouldn't mind Julien getting another look. Wallner, not sure. Even last year, I didn't see him as a long-term piece. Big swing and strike out prone. The book was written on him and at his age, we might have a situation where what you see is what you get.

[NYCTK]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Both Farmer and Margot can likely be moved at that point.

No one's trading for a corner outfielder with a sub 100 OPS+ that plays mediocre defense. Everyone, including the Twins, have someone in AAA that can produce at his level. 

[NYCTK]

4 hours ago, Jeff K said:

but the Twins could also use more depth in their solid bullpen. 

Any bullpen arm we'd get in exchange for Margot is no better than Jackson and we'd just be taking a flyer on talent and hoping our staff can straighten them out. Much like the Floro trade last year. 

[bean5302]

25 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

No one's trading for a corner outfielder with a sub 100 OPS+ that plays mediocre defense. Everyone, including the Twins, have someone in AAA that can produce at his level. 

Trades for quality depth are not uncommon. Margot and Farmer will be viewed as quality depth if they've both been hitting well since May. Both players would be on a pace for a 1.0 WAR type season if they keep hitting like they have been until after the break.

3 teams in the chase have -0.1 to 0.5 WAR at 3B right now
2 teams in the chase have -1.1 to 0.3 WAR at SS right now
4 teams in the chase have -1.6 to 0.5 WAR at 2B right now
8 teams in the chase have -0.8 to 0.4 WAR at RF right now
6 teams in the chase have -0.4 to 0.4 WAR in LF right now

Not all those teams have a huge budget to add cost. There will be a market for Farmer and Margot if they're close to league average at the plate.

[NYCTK]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If Wallner gets his K% to 30% or a bit below …..should be doable and is more than a reasonable goal…..he should get a shot…….until then, I think the organization is going to press him for better results.

Before the weekend, he had a rolling 100 PA stretch where the K rate was 25% or so. The last 4 games have again cranked that rolling average back up to 30% unfortunately. I agree, I would like to see him show that another two weeks and then he can get another crack at it post-ASB. 

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Trades for quality depth are not uncommon.

Quality being the operative word here. Don't know that applies to Margot...

We got Luplow off waivers last year and he wasn't any worse, on paper, than Margot right now. He ultimately didn't end up producing against lefties for us, but his career OPS against LHP was actually a full 60 points higher than Margot. 

Farmer, maybe...

[NYCTK]

35 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

There will be a market for Farmer and Margot if they're close to league average at the plate.

Mark Canha was a 1.2 WAR player last year for the Mets, with a 2024 team option at a fair price and the Mets paying his remaining salary and he returned a non-prospect AA starter. There really is no market for Margot, like at all. 

Tommy Pham was a 1.2 WAR player for the Mets at the deadline and with the Mets paying half his remaining salary he returned a 16 year old unknown SS in the Dominican league. 

There simply isn't a market for someone like Margot. 

[srlarson]

The yankees are looking for a 1st baseman.....send Santana their way.....  With Farmers resurgence maybe send him to the Dodgers to fill in for Mookie......then Margot.....haven't been a fan...need to find a spot for him....free up some $'s let the kids play (Miranda at 1st, Lee at 2nd, and get Wallner in the OF)....and take the $'s and go get a another Starting Pitcher for the Playoffs.....  But yes the season comes down to Buxton and Lewis staying healthy and leading this team offensively and the Pitching staff holding it together....but we are due for some injuries on the Staff..1st half been way to quite...so gonna even out......

[RpR]

3 minutes ago, srlarson said:

The yankees are looking for a 1st baseman.....send Santana their way.....  With Farmers resurgence maybe send him to the Dodgers to fill in for Mookie......then Margot.....haven't been a fan...need to find a spot for him....free up some $'s let the kids play (Miranda at 1st, Lee at 2nd, and get Wallner in the OF)

We want to make the Post Season, not be also rans which is what , what you suggested would cause to happen.

Gee, Lee at Second, where he has played a whole 2 games; the second coming of Blankenhorn.😄

[Jeff K]

On 6/25/2024 at 12:01 PM, JD-TWINS said:

I get wanting to “get better”…..regardless of opponent recently the Team’s won somewhere around 11 of last 15 with 3 straight one run losses mixed in there. Hardly problematic.

TWINS have scored 2nd most runs in A.L. since April 21st, trailing only the Yankees. Lewis just started playing 15 games ago. We’re OK.

This is people’s reality - it’s not entertainment to them. Saying that you would “prefer to roll the dice” with a couple guys that are talented has some emotional merit - it makes zero sense for organization to get rid of a guy whose OPS is .830 over last 30 games - League average OPS is .706 as of yesterday on MLB network.

Kirilloff is hurt….. he was hitting .202. Wallner is still striking out at a 33% rate. Rolling the dice with them just doesn’t add up to me.

To me, when guys improve you continue to play them…….you don’t search for a trade partner. They were brought in at a sunk cost to do exactly what they’ve been doing for past 5 plus weeks……I do not see them going anywhere other than being DFA’d after July 31 due to lack of performance. There’s no getting ahead of the curve with these guys to get some future value in a trade.

Farmer is an end of the roster player as is Margot.  Neither of which have long term impact.  As you said, they are sunk costs.  Perhaps we can get something, or not.  We won't be worse off with their replacements.