Rays 7, Twins 6: Miranda Blast Sends it to Extras, But Minnesota Comes up Short

[stringer bell]

Bullpens are fragile. They can fall apart with one injury or ineffective key piece. I thought the Twins did a decent job of getting bullpen depth on the cheap over the winter, but the depth went sideways before the season even started with the injuries to Durán, Topa and Thielbar. So far, the most positive story is that Alcalá has been very good and the second best is that Staumont could assume a high-leverage role (great so far in limited sample size and mostly low leverage). The disappointments have been Thielbar, Jackson, and the injury to Topa. I'm neutral on Sands and Okert--they shouldn't be back-end guys, but everyone gets a chance at some point. 

[MMMordabito]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Farmer finally at .200 BA with .307 OBP

Margot to .225 BA with .302 OBP

Santana to .247 BA with .327 OBP …..Leads team in HR & RBI ……with endless availability!

How about a little bit of recognition for these 3 that absolutely “had to be DFAed” on May 10th & after……..no mention of positives, only complaints.

OK, but Margot's pathetic defense has actually caused his bWAR to go down since then.  He's now at -0.9 (-0.1 fWAR).  A .225 BA with .302 OBP is nothing to cheer about when there isn't any power to go with it.  

Hoping Rayne Doncon can keep developing to save that trade, because there hasn't been any positive value for the big club so far.

[Rosterman]

I sooooooo love Griffin Jax this season.

BUT...like last season, don't bring himn out with a runner on base. He had so many tough 10th innings last season.

Despite his often brilliance, he is still liable to give up at least one hit an inning. If he starts an inning, he can give up two and still escape issues with his current abilities. But NEVER bring him out with a runner on second or beyond.

[stringer bell]

Big Picture View. The two losses to Tampa Bay were regression to the mean. The Twins sat at 14-5 in one-run games and 3-0 in extra innings. Pretty tough to sustain that over time. 

The Rays got the gift runner to score in both games, but not by playing A-B-C ball, they got an error from Lewis and a hit from a guy in a terrible slump. That's the way the ball bounces. It didn't help that Correa and Lewis made errors in Saturday's game. They had good threats to score the tying run and more in their half of the tenth both days and fizzled. Again, IMHO, regression to the mean.

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Farmer finally at .200 BA with .307 OBP

Margot to .225 BA with .302 OBP

Santana to .247 BA with .327 OBP …..Leads team in HR & RBI ……with endless availability!

How about a little bit of recognition for these 3 that absolutely “had to be DFAed” on May 10th & after……..no mention of positives, only complaints.

[Riverbrian]

56 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Big Picture View. The two losses to Tampa Bay were regression to the mean. The Twins sat at 14-5 in one-run games and 3-0 in extra innings. Pretty tough to sustain that over time. 

The Rays got the gift runner to score in both games, but not by playing A-B-C ball, they got an error from Lewis and a hit from a guy in a terrible slump. That's the way the ball bounces. It didn't help that Correa and Lewis made errors in Saturday's game. They had good threats to score the tying run and more in their half of the tenth both days and fizzled. Again, IMHO, regression to the mean.

Big Picture View from me. 

Typical game results in any given season. Win Some Lose Some... Try again tomorrow. Sometimes the superstar fails with the game on the line... sometimes the guy barely hanging on to a major league job comes a big. Sometimes a line drive is caught while a bloop falls in.

There are 95 games left to go. If they lose no more than win 40 of them... They got a shot at the playoffs. 

Grind it out. Get back on Television so we can watch... damn it.  

 

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Your rage hate of Wallner is bizarre.

Gotta deal with reality - 9K’s in last 14 AB’s….3 hits, all HR’s. Same profile, different week of the season.

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, MMMordabito said:

OK, but Margot's pathetic defense has actually caused his bWAR to go down since then.  He's now at -0.9 (-0.1 fWAR).  A .225 BA with .302 OBP is nothing to cheer about when there isn't any power to go with it.  

Hoping Rayne Doncon can keep developing to save that trade, because there hasn't been any positive value for the big club so far.

He was hitting .371 over the previous 23 games as of last Friday, the 14th.

Kepler sucked - he improved. Santana sucked - he improved. Margot sucked - he improved.

The continual macro view of a guy’s stats doesn’t mean much……he hit under a .100 for 5 weeks - to get to .225 through 12 weeks is a big change.

It’s like a golfer finishing in the Top 5. couple times in May with a win in June……and one keeps saying they are terrible because they missed 3 cuts in April. Things change!

He’s not a fabulous defender - granted. Neither is Larnach & Martin often looks like a Jr. High kid out there but he makes most of the plays. We have what we have……no perfect Teams.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Big Picture View. The two losses to Tampa Bay were regression to the mean. The Twins sat at 14-5 in one-run games and 3-0 in extra innings. Pretty tough to sustain that over time. 

The Rays got the gift runner to score in both games, but not by playing A-B-C ball, they got an error from Lewis and a hit from a guy in a terrible slump. That's the way the ball bounces. It didn't help that Correa and Lewis made errors in Saturday's game. They had good threats to score the tying run and more in their half of the tenth both days and fizzled. Again, IMHO, regression to the mean.

That’s baseball - a .570 winning % is great…..ups & downs.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Agree with the sentiment of the post. Not sure if larger payroll invested in the pen is the answer but a larger investment in talent is important. 

It's Martha and the Vandelas in the bullpen. You can't hide anyone. 

 

…..nowhere to run to baby….

[Swing Batter-Batter]

22 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I ran the numbers after today. Jeffers is at 19% CS% and Vazquez is 21% - league average is 22%. If Jeffers throws out his next baserunner they're even. Jeffers has allowed 0.066 stolen bases per inning (0.6 per 9 innings) and Vazquez is at 0.089 stolen bases per inning (0.8 per 9 innings).

I didn't think that most of those steals were on the catcher. Did you see the 3rd base steal off Jackson? He paid zero attention to the runner and the catcher had no chance. In addition, how does a guy steal 2nd base off a left-handed pitcher? Again, the catcher had no chance of throwing him out.

[D.C Twins]

Jackson NEEDS TO GO (over a month ago)

[bean5302]

34 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gotta deal with reality - 9K’s in last 14 AB’s….3 hits, all HR’s. Same profile, different week of the season.

4 games (where his OPS was 1.200... LOL) you're like hand selecting premium cherries which have been picked 

[JD-TWINS]

Just now, bean5302 said:

4 games (where his OPS was 1.200... LOL) you're like hand selecting premium cherries which have been picked 

Picking his most recent AB’s is all….. we could go back to last August when he was tearing the cover off or we could go back to first 3 weeks of ‘24 when he looked like me in the box……he struck out 9 of last 14 AB’s……doesn’t seem to be on a roll currently IMO & pretty much any rational person’s opinion.

[JD-TWINS]

40 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gotta deal with reality - 9K’s in last 14 AB’s….3 hits, all HR’s. Same profile, different week of the season.

you don’t agree reality is reality??? thumbs down??? ……he struck out 9 times in last 14 AB’s - what, from that screams Call Up?

Lee, in a much smaller sample size seems to be the more evenly productive hitter right now!

Prior to the SeasonI thought Wallner might be an All-star……..I want him on the roster and I want him to succeed!! He’s not right for the Show yet.

[Schmoeman5]

3 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

4 games (where his OPS was 1.200... LOL) you're like hand selecting premium cherries which have been picked 

And you're hand selecting too. Low obp, high slugging percentage doesn't translate into meaningful results. In fact it screams of yeah but when he gets a hold of it. Is that sustainable?

[Riverbrian]

42 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

you don’t agree reality is reality??? thumbs down??? ……he struck out 9 times in last 14 AB’s - what, from that screams Call Up?

Lee, in a much smaller sample size seems to be the more evenly productive hitter right now!

Prior to the SeasonI thought Wallner might be an All-star……..I want him on the roster and I want him to succeed!! He’s not right for the Show yet.

He's ready if he changes his walk up song. 

White Horse by Chris Stapleton is lyrically wrong for a guy trying to claim a major league job. 

Any song with "I ain't there yet" in the lyrics is a problem.  

[MMMordabito]

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

He was hitting .371 over the previous 23 games as of last Friday, the 14th.

Kepler sucked - he improved. Santana sucked - he improved. Margot sucked - he improved.

The continual macro view of a guy’s stats doesn’t mean much……he hit under a .100 for 5 weeks - to get to .225 through 12 weeks is a big change.

It’s like a golfer finishing in the Top 5. couple times in May with a win in June……and one keeps saying they are terrible because they missed 3 cuts in April. Things change!

He’s not a fabulous defender - granted. Neither is Larnach & Martin often looks like a Jr. High kid out there but he makes most of the plays. We have what we have……no perfect Teams.

The continual use of batting average as the be all and end all of statistics to rate player performance doesn't mean much either.

[JD-TWINS]

2 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

The continual use of batting average as the be all and end all of statistics to rate player performance doesn't mean much either.

Choose your stats of choice….,his performance is better than it was 7-8 weeks ago. OBP? OPS?

BA is one indicative stat - if a guy is hitting .100 he’s not doing much right.

[bean5302]

7 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

And you're hand selecting too. Low obp, high slugging percentage doesn't translate into meaningful results. In fact it screams of yeah but when he gets a hold of it. Is that sustainable?

Of course my response was to toss in an overall production metric which takes a giant dump on the singular, irrelevant statistic used. They focused on a single, ultra elite, perfect cherry, complete with silk ribbon shipped in an swarovski crystal encrustsed gift box. Shipped with a certificate of authenticity and hand selected by a master cherry picking artist with a PHD in cherry picking. Their cherries are raised in above ground planters on rotisserie turntables so each cherry can experience the perfect and equal amount of sunlight. They water their cherries only with the finest spring water sourced locally from volcanic hot springs rich in the finest minerals, before being chilled with cool ocean breezes, and then combined with a secret combination of exotic whiskey mash composting fertilizer before being individually hand watered. Simply put, it is the world's finest cherry. It has no equal.

Tell me. 3 HRs in 4 games is pretty good, yes? That's a 122 HR pace which would practically double the highest HR total in MLB history, yes? He had a .313 OBP over those horrible games. Would you want a hitter on the Twins who hits 122 HR's a year? Even if they struck out 350 times? Of course, neither of those stats are even remotely sustainable. They're both preposterous which is why 4 game sample sizes are ludicrous to try and evaluate a player. In this case, the numbers were cherry picked as described above. Choosing a a singular statistic designed specifically to support a position, especially when the overall picture does not reflect the statistic chosen.

[bean5302]

8 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

you don’t agree reality is reality??? thumbs down??? ……he struck out 9 times in last 14 AB’s - what, from that screams Call Up?

Lee, in a much smaller sample size seems to be the more evenly productive hitter right now!

Prior to the SeasonI thought Wallner might be an All-star……..I want him on the roster and I want him to succeed!! He’s not right for the Show yet.

You literally just quoted yourself in that post, and then you proceeded to pick an argument with yourself. This isn't the first time you've done it recently...

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

You literally just quoted yourself in that post, and then you proceeded to pick an argument with yourself. This isn't the first time you've done it recently...

I’m pointing out your disagreement with my post that states Wallner has struck out at a 64% rate over his past 14AB’s and should not be called up. That’s it - no Alzheimer’s - no picking arguments with myself - no wish to be down on Wallner other than stating his performance isn’t up to standards.