Why We Shouldn't Be Too Concerned About Pablo Lopez's 5.45 ERA

[Matthew Taylor]

Of all the disappointing performances for the Minnesota Twins this season, none have been more surprising than Pablo López's inflated 5.45 ERA. However, a closer look at the underlying metrics (and López's track record) suggests there's no need for alarm. In fact, there's every reason to believe that López will soon return to his dominant form.

Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

Pablo López is coming off his best season to date--a season in which he finished in the top 10 in Cy Young Award voting and threw one of the most dazzling playoff starts in Minnesota Twins history, solidifying his status as one of the league’s elite pitchers. Over the past four seasons, López has consistently posted an ERA in the 3s, which has caused such an outlier season for him to raise so many eyebrows.

There is, however, substantial reason for optimism.

Last season, López experienced a similar pattern. Through his first 15 starts, he had an ERA of 4.40, yet his FIP was a much lower 3.47. This discrepancy indicated that López was pitching better than his ERA suggested, and indeed, the underlying metrics proved to be a better predictor of his performance. Over his final 17 starts, López posted a stellar 3.03 ERA, including a 2.00 ERA in August. 

This season, López's ERA of 5.45 is undoubtedly higher than we'd like to see, but once again, the underlying metrics tell a more encouraging story. His FIP is 1.30 points lower than his ERA, and as we look even further under the hood, there are even more promising figures. López currently boasts an xERA (Expected ERA) of 3.19, an xFIP (Expected FIP) of 3.43, and a SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) of 3.31. These advanced metrics, which incorporate strikeouts and walks in addition to batted-ball data like exit velocity, suggest that López’s true performance level is much closer to what we’ve seen in previous seasons.

History has shown that pitchers with López's advanced metric profile tend to see their actual ERA regress toward their expected metrics, rather than having the opposite happen. As the season progresses, we should expect López’s ERA to align more closely with his xERA, xFIP, and SIERA. This regression toward a truer talent level is a common phenomenon in baseball, where luck eventually evens out.

And true talent is definitely something that Pablo López still possesses. López is still striking out batters at a 10+ K/9 clip; still throwing his fastball in the mid-90s; and still limiting hard contact, like he usually does. Just take a look at his Baseball Savant profile and you won’t see a pitcher whose ERA belongs in the 5s.

For Twins fans, now is the time to buy López stock. His track record, combined with his underlying metrics, strongly indicates that his current ERA is a blip on the radar, rather than a trend. López has the tools and talent to be a cornerstone of the Twins’ rotation, and as the season continues, we can expect to see his performance stabilize and improve.

Though it’s easy to get caught up in the worry of a high ERA, a deeper dive into López's statistics shows that there is reason for optimism. His advanced metrics paint the picture of a pitcher who is still performing at a high level, just waiting for the results to catch up. Obviously, the runs he's given up already are real, but we should expect him to surrender fewer going forward.

Do you still believe in Pablo López? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[Patzky]

It would be easier to believe in him if he could pick up a bat and help this anemic hitting attack somehow..

[Peter]

Not if but when Pablo buckles downs-twins get on another long winning streak!!! To much talent not to especially now with team at full health!!!

[TwinsDr2021]

If he starts 31 games, he is 40% of the way there and that is concerning and has been below replacement level so far. I believe he will do better going forward,

[Karbo]

I think Lopez will be fine. Give it a little time. The only real problem I've noticed is he's missing with his location. He has just thrown to many pitches in the "whoop 'em zone.

[bean5302]

Seriously, if you were one of the fans who believed Lopez was an acceptable ace, yes, it's time to be very concerned. He's not an ace. He's not even a great #2. Throughout his career, he's typically run an ERA significantly higher than his FIP, like our old friend Ricky Nolasco. When you see a pattern year in and out, there's a good chance the results are not luck oriented, they're part of a player's profile.

Lopez has struggled quite a bit with the gopher ball this year, but even if he corrects it, and pitches lights out to get back to where you'd expect he'd be at a normal luck level, he'll run a 3.85ish ERA this year. He's a solid playoff rotation arm, but he can't be counted on to lead a playoff caliber rotation.

[Whitey333]

Just another example of analytics run amok.  Lopez has not pitched well for most of the season.  Anyone can SEE that.  Good pitchers produce "good numbers" real or analytic.  The only thing that I see is it reinforcing Baldelli theory of " we are interested in the process not the results" philosophy he has frequently mentioned.  I totally expect Lopez to pitch a great game against the lowly Rockies.  Then people will be singing his praises again.  After all we SHOULD beat the lowly Rockies.  Right?

[mnfireman]

10 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

 After all we SHOULD beat the lowly Rockies.  Right?

Just like last night??

[Whitey333]

4 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Just like last night??

That's what I meant in a sarcastic way.  I know we lost last night.  Played poorly all game.  I mean he should really have no problems against Colorado.  But the way he has pitched this year I wouldn't be surprised if he loses it again.  Go Twins.

[mikelink45]

Of course we should.  Analytics does not matter if you lose.  "At a boys" for players who are expected to be your Ace are not good enough.  We are 40% of the way through the season and struggling to be above .500 - he is a career .500 pitcher with a 4.01 ERA and -0.2 WAR for the year.

 

Of course he will pitch some great games and we will celebrate, but he is not an ACE except for the Twins.

 

And like the discussion about Correa - we overrate him, but he is all we can afford so let's cheer him on and be happy we have someone who is a good pitcher, just not a great one. 

[Guest]

I'm very concerned about Pablo's 5.45ERA to date especially given his prominent role in the team's future plans.

[Doctor Gast]

I have faith in Pablo.

[Fatbat]

Its seems like he is messing around with details he doesn’t need to mess with.  Could be mgmnt or just him and the catcher but….Knock It Off! Get outs and get a win.  Stop all the goofing around. 

[h2oface]

Never liked the trade. I was glad he had an outlier 2023. Lots of innings. Pitched well in the playoffs. I would have kept Gray. I like the trade even less now. His career ERA is 4. That is who he is.

[wabene]

9 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Never liked the trade. I was glad he had a outlier 2023. Lots of innings. Pitched well in the playoffs. I would have kept Gray. I like the trade even less now. His career ERA is 4. That is who he is.

I'm guessing you didn't get the Pablo shirt 😂