Week in Review: Taking Control

[Nick Nelson]

By taking five of seven from the Royals and Astros, and extending their series winning streak to four in a row, the Minnesota Twins continued to play exceptional ball. Their resurgent run will be tested on a coming trip to the East Coast, but a crucial reinforcement is on deck with Royce Lewis set to return.

Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/27 through Sun, 6/2
***
Record Last Week: 5-2 (Overall: 33-26)
Run Differential Last Week: +2 (Overall: +6)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (6.0 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 53 | MIN 6, KC 5: Twins Ward Off KC Comeback, Win Opener
Game 54 | MIN 4, KC 2: Early Lead Holds Up Behind SWR and Bullpen
Game 55 | KC 6, MIN 1: Royals Get to Ober Again, Lineup Silenced
Game 56 | MIN 7, KC 6: Jeffers and Correa Power Big Comeback
Game 57 | MIN 6, HOU 1: Lopez Dominates as Twins Roll Houston
Game 58 | HOU 5, MIN 2: Astros Launch Four Homers Off Ryan
Game 59 | MIN 4, HOU 3: Miranda Lifts Off, Bullpen Locks Down

IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY.

NEWS & NOTES

Royce Lewis's return is officially imminent. The Twins shared on Sunday that if all went well in his final rehab tuneup with the Saints on Sunday – and seemingly they did, as he got through four ABs with a hit, a walk and a strikeout – he was expected to rejoin the team on Tuesday in New York. Minnesota will be getting back their best hitter as they look to build on their recent success and erase the memory of a brutal Target Field sweep at the hands of the Yankees in mid-May.

Of course, activating Lewis will require a corresponding move, and it sounds like we have a pretty clear read on who that's going to be. We'll get to that decision in a bit.

The Twins made only one roster move over the past week, calling up reliever Diego Castillo as a fresh arm on Monday after sending down Kody Funderburk last Sunday. Justin Topa was moved to the 60-day IL to make room on the 40-man roster for Castillo, who showed some encouraging signs in a pair of scoreless two-inning appearances. 

I'm not trying to jinx anything or whatever, but it deserves to be noted how much the physical attrition has slowed for the Twins following an early-season flurry. They haven't made an IL move since placing Byron Buxton and Brock Stewart on May 2nd. Buxton has since returned and looks to be in a fairly good place. Carlos Correa, Max Kepler and Jhoan Durán are among other key players who've spent time on the shelf but came back strong and without setbacks. Hopefully the same will be true of Lewis soon.

To me, this is the under-discussed story of Minnesota's turnaround. They've gotten healthy and they're about to get healthier. They're playing almost at full strength and that has allowed them to rattle off series wins with impressive consistency. Nick Paparesta and the training staff deserve a ton of credit for building on what they started last year. You can't control people getting hurt, but you can control how you address and manage the handling of those injuries. It's tough to argue the Twins haven't been doing an amazing job on that front, based on results. 

HIGHLIGHTS

Amusingly, almost all of the players who appeared to be on the roster bubble in the face of Lewis's impending return enjoyed pretty strong weeks as they sought to make their case for sticking around. José Miranda led the way by adding three more home runs and driving in six, coming through with a game-changing boost on Sunday that put a stamp on his locked-down roster spot: tying home run in the sixth, go-ahead double in the eighth. 

Trevor Larnach also hit three homers and drove in six runs between his four starts. Alex Kirilloff followed up his big weekend against Texas with three more RBIs on three hits in 11 at-bats. Edouard Julien showed signs of emerging from his lengthy slump, notching four hits and a couple walks in 15 plate appearances, although it looks to have not been enough. 

Meanwhile, even the struggling veteran contingent managed to post some production. Carlos Santana had one of his better weeks of the season, going 6-for-18 with a homer and four walks in a vintage snapshot. Manuel Margot notched four hits and three walks in 15 plate appearances, and has actually come through in a few big spots of late.

These performances from contributing role players served to create a tougher decision for the front office, as they prepare to integrate another core player into their roster mix. Lewis will rejoin a team led by a thriving Correa, who is living up to his big-money contract with stellar play on both the offensive and defensive sides. 

Correa has resumed being a stalwart defensively at short – improving from 64th percentile in Outs Above Average last year to 93rd percentile – and his bat has bounced back in a big way, with an OPS that is 22 points above the league average. On Thursday he came through with a huge bases-clearing triple to help seal up a series victory over the Royals, shrinking the division gap.

 

Outbursts of production from guys like Larnach and Miranda are great to see, but this team's true upside hinges on that core trio of Correa, Buxton and Lewis being healthy and spearheading the charge. So it's really good to see Correa doing his thing. Buxton's bat still hasn't quite come around, but he's moving around well and at least starting to take some better ABs (three walks last week, four all season previous). I'm encouraged by the fact he appeared in all seven games, starting six, while showing no visible impairment from the balky knee.

On the pitching side, Pablo López rebounded after two poor starts the previous week, delivering another brilliant performance against the Astros in Houston. López tossed seven innings of one-run ball on Friday night, striking out six with one walk. Hopefully he's ready to put his short run of struggles behind him. 

 

LOWLIGHTS

Just in time for López to turn around his downward performance trend, other Twins starting pitchers were doing the opposite. The good ol' ebbs and flows of baseball. Home run regression caught up in a major way with Joe Ryan, who gave up four long balls in Houston on Saturday, after surrendering only seven through his first 11 starts. Simeon Woods Richardson was tapped by the Astros for a pair of bombs on Sunday, equalling the number he'd allowed in his first nine starts.

Chris Paddack gave up two home runs against Kansas City on Thursday, his second multi-HR game of the season and first since April 16th. Paddack continues to be a tough one to figure out, often looking like a different pitcher from start to start with wavering variations in velocity and stuff. He's already at 61 innings on the season, putting him on pace for nearly 170, which would easily be a career-high. 

You've got to think the Twins have plans to give Paddack – coming off his second Tommy John surgery and with just 27 innings pitched in the majors over the past two years – a break at some point in the relatively near future. Cody Pirkl wrote over the weekend about the possibility of calling up red-hot pitching prospect David Festa to fill in for a spell.

There is likely no replacement coming for Christian Vázquez, who continues to draw semi-regular starts as the team's part-time catcher while remaining mired in a remarkable void of offensive production. He's clearly not anything close to a good hitter at this point, but you would think at some point a few hits would start falling in for the 33-year-old, who's been arguably the worst in the majors and can't buy a bucket. He managed one single in 11 at-bats last week, dropping his line to .161/.179/.196 on the season. 

Vázquez has drawn two walks in 119 plate appearances this year. Opposing pitchers are going right after him and he can't do a thing about it. I doubt parting ways with Vázquez is something the Twins would consider, given his contract situation and his persisting defensive value, but that's not really an option at the moment anyway. No. 3 catcher Jair Camargo just started to work his way back from a six-week IL stint in the minors.

Kyle Farmer's staying power is probably lower than Vázquez's, even if he appears to have avoided the chop this time around. Farmer was really the only member of the Royce Lewis bubble group to not have a good week, and his role has been severely diminished. The veteran started three games last week, getting pulled from each after two plate appearances. He managed one single in eight plate appearances, and now has a .513 OPS on the season. He hasn't played a complete game front to back since May 21st. 

TRENDING STORYLINE

The mystery around the Lewis roster decision was lifted after Sunday's game, with Julien reportedly hugging teammates following a conversation in the manager's office. The writing was somewhat on the wall with Julien's production stifled over the past several weeks, and his placement in the lineup dropping from the top to bottom against righties.

 

I'm still a bit surprised by this decision and not sure I agree with it. Julien has been a valuable contributor in spite of his offensive struggles, thanks to his much-improved fielding. I'm not convinced Castro is a better option regularly at second, given how it affects his flexibility, and Farmer is clearly not – maybe not even on defense at this point. 

I realize that Julien has not been at his best but I'd just as soon have him work through it in the majors rather than Triple-A, where he'll likely overwhelm the opposition with his control of the automated strike zone. Is that going to be a meaningfully fruitful experience for the 25-year-old, as opposed to just letting him work through things in the majors? 

I guess we'll see. There's something to be said for getting some good swings in and feeling the rhythm again. Interestingly, Julien will soon be joined in the Saints infield by Brooks Lee, who's currently rehabbing in Single-A. Matt Wallner also shows signs of finding himself at the plate. The Twins will have some real threats lurking in the high minors as we roll toward the second half. Even though Farmer and Margot may have survived this round, the clock is clearly ticking on these underperforming veterans if they can't pick things up in a hurry.

LOOKING AHEAD

There's nothing like a trip to Yankee Stadium to test whether the Twins can maintain their mojo. Minnesota was cruising merrily along before running into the Bronx Bombers last time, and it sent them into a weeklong death spiral, from which they've since bounced back admirably. 

Can Lewis help them avoid a relapse in the House of Pain? Old demons will be at play, especially with Luis Gil – the young star right-hander whom Minnesota traded as a teenager for Jake Cave – set to start against Minnesota in the opener on Tuesday.

From there, the Twins head to Pittsburgh, for a series at PNC Park which I will be attending. (Can't wait!) At this point it looks like the Twins will avoid rookie sensation Paul Skenes, though they're slated to run into another one in Jared Jones next Sunday. 

TUESDAY, JUNE 4: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Luis Gil
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 5: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Chris Paddack v. LHP Carlos Rodon
THURSDAY, JUNE 6: TWINS @ YANKEES – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Marcus Stroman
FRIDAY, JUNE 7: TWINS @ PIRATES – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Mitch Keller
SATURDAY, JUNE 8: TWINS @ PIRATES – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Quinn Priester
SUNDAY, JUNE 9: TWINS @ PIRATES – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Jared Jones

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[FlyingFinn]

Saints fans get ready for some better baseball - Julien and most likely Lee headed your way!

Any update on Brock Stewart? He sure has been gone a long time again.

[BH67]

As play ends on June 2, the Twins' next opponents above .500 after the Yankees are the Seattle Mariners, on the road June 28-30. And no other before the All-Star break.

[DuluthRoots]

9 minutes ago, BH67 said:

As play ends on June 2, the Twins' next opponents above .500 after the Yankees are the Seattle Mariners, on the road June 28-30. And no other before the All-Star break.

Nice to know, because the Yankees seem to own us.

[Patzky]

14 minutes ago, DuluthRoots said:

Nice to know, because the Yankees seem to own us.

Can't go worse than the last get together.

[DocBauer]

As of now, the ALC is no joke. It's really unfortunate the Twins are still having to claw their way back to the top after their awful start, but that's baseball. There's still 2/3 of a season left, and they can absolutely win this thing yet.

Bullet points:

1] Alcala being used for only a single inning is something I've been screaming about all season. The fact that he's throwing harder now doesn't dismiss the fact that he was still doing well in the first inning of his often 2 inning stints. It's even more important that he's ready to go and being used right with Stewart out.

2] I was pleasantly surprised when the Twins signed Castillo for a pen flier. The guy was good to great for about 6 straight seasons before a bad 2023. Alcala sort of replaces Topa, and Castillo becomes sort of a replacement for Alcala? If he's back, or close to back, to his previous form for real, the 6th and 7th innings just got a lot better.

3] Staumont hasn't looked bad at all. Okert really has been, generally, pretty solid. The pen is better with Stewart, of course, but the depth is there, and I like Sands...slipping a little...going back to his role as the 8th man. 

4] I agree Julien wasn't really the right choice to go down. He's shown more life the past week. I'm not saying a reset won't help, but I really wonder if Margot would be gone if he hadn't suddenly had the best week of his season? IMO, Margot is still the ONE GUY to be removed when the next tough decision takes place. A mediocre to average player who can PR some and be OK without power against LHP is nothing close to a difference maker. Unfortunately for Julien, with Lee still working his way back, Farmer as an INF depth piece is probably safe for now.

5] I'm glad Larnach, Miranda, and Kirilloff are staying, however. Despite being 25-27yo, these 3 are still relatively inexperienced at the ML level due to injuries. Miranda and Larnach are starting to become productive fixtures in the lineup. And AK is starting to show life the past couple of weeks. TODAY is important, but so is tomorrow. I like that the Twins are sticking with them as much as a I dislike Julien being sent down, even if it's temporary. 

6] Winning 3 of 4 against KC was big, especially from an ALC perspective. But 2 of 3 against Houston, at home, might have been just as big. The Astros have been playing better as of late, and are dangerous. It's a great way to begin the road trip. Another 3 or 4 wins would be HUGE if the Twins could pull it off.

7] Ryan had a bad game against a dangerous team. It happens. Maybe it's the opposite curse we've been having on TD. Bash a guy, he gets hot. Write a post how great someone is, he has a bad game. Lol

8] Castro will be just fine as the primary 2B for the short term. But it limits the lineup and moves Rocco can make for the moment. And that's a concern of mine. Margot...here we are again...remains a limited player in usage and production despite his 1 week "hot streak". I know Farmer can play 2B well and let Castro move around some, but we just lost some flexibility that I'm really concerned about.

9] Paddack has been even better than I expected despite a couple ups and downs. IIRC, he's still only had one BAD start, a couple mediocre ones, and the rest have been solid to very good. He's a big, strong, tough, gamer of a pitcher! But he's still coming back from TJ. At some point, the Twins are going to have to look at a skip start here or there, not just the All Star break. Is it weird to hope for a double header at some point to call someone up and skip him? I do agree that Festa is an option, soon, as the next man up. I'm just hoping it won't be until the 2nd half.

10] Lastly...ROYCE! I don't think he'll give a damn that he's back playing in Yankee stadium. It might even give him some juice. But despite a flippant comment I made a couple days ago concerning him probably hitting a HR and a double and going 2-4 his first game back, we should all temper our hopes. DESPITE his Superman appearances and reputation and ability, it wouldn't shock me if he was ordinary initially. After all, he's still human, right? But DAMN it's nice to see him back! He just might be the best position player on the team, all due respect to Correa.

Looong winded, that's my stuff. Go Twins! 6 more games before coming home again, and a chance to make a statement on this road trip!

[Jocko87]

Good call out on the training staff. Very easy to lose them into the background but they have more long term impact than short term.

Vasquez isn't going anywhere, as long as the defense is still good. The value of keeping Jeffers legs under him for the postseason is not a small thing. If you can't get your mind out of the payroll gutter, just think of it as great catching group for 12m.

Not surprised Julien would be going down. Something ain't right with him and it's far to early to cut loose players without options. You don't  have to like it but Farmer and Margot are here for a while. Julien et al have to play them off.

[Brandon]

I also want to point out the Twins have only used 6 starting pitchers this season so far.  Very few minor injuries on the pitching staff other than the injured pitcher we acquired hurt.  

[Peter]

Mission accomplished without Royce!!! They survived and thensome!!! AL central is no joke!!! It’s going to come down to final day!!! After this week twins will be in great shape with schedule!!! And yes I’m in minority but sending Julian down was right call. Way way way to many called 3rd strike right down the middle with bat on his shoulder. Let’s get 5–1 week taking 2 of 3 with yankees and sweep of pirates!!!’ Let’s go twins!!!

[LambchoP]

Julien was the right call for a reset in AAA. He's got to figure out a two strike approach, way too many strikeouts looking. We've been real lucky with our starting pitching health which is huge. We are one injury away from debuting Festa, who hasn't found any consistency in St Paul. Dobnak? Varland? We'd be in real trouble. If we really are going to make a playoff push I think we move Varland to the pen and go after a solid starting pitcher. Preferably one that's not just a straight rental.

[Parfigliano]

14 hours ago, DuluthRoots said:

Nice to know, because the Yankees seem to own us.

The Yankees are in their heads.  Have been for years.

[Patzky]

8 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

The Yankees are in their heads.  Have been for years.

The good news is, Phil Cuzzi is in Toronto messing with the Jays and Orioles tonight, so we won't have him to contend with this week in the Bronx.