Can the Paparesta Program Pay Off Again in Year Two?

The Minnesota Twins had their eyes on Nick Paparesta long before they were able to finally pry their new head athletic trainer away from the Oakland Athletics in November of 2022. "The Twins requested permission to speak with Paparesta when they hired (Michael) Salazar three seasons ago," Dan Hayes wrote in The Athletic at the time, "only to learn he was happy in Oakland and under contract."

So it was a fortuitous twist of fate that Paparesta's attitude had shifted once the Twins decided it was time for another change in direction, following three years with their second choice at the helm. While making clear they didn't fully attribute the calamitous health issues that plagued their team to Salazar, the Twins understandably wanted a fresh start. Injuries became an overriding theme of 2022. They were tired of it, as reflected by Rocco Baldelli's grumpy demeanor in fielding a litany of injury-related questions during virtually every press scrum in the second half. 

The characterization of Paparesta's impact from his own general manager with the A's, David Forst, certainly painted an appealing picture. "Before Nick got to Oakland, we did spend a lot of time talking about injuries, talking about our medical department, answering questions to the media about it," Forst said at the Winter Meetings, per Hayes. "When he came in with an objective process and sort of remade the staff ... I think the biggest compliment I can give is it’s an area I didn’t have to worry about.”

No surprise, then, that when Minnesota got the chance to interview Paparesta following Salazar's dismissal, they hired him without delay. "It really stood out as someone we thought fit exactly what we were looking for,” Derek Falvey said.

Looking back at Paparesta's first year on board, his addition seemingly delivered on everything the Twins wanted from it. This is best exemplified by a comparative look at the late-season lineups. In September of 2022, Baldelli found himself consistently running out lineups full of backups and minor-leaguers. His team slid from one game behind Cleveland on September 1st to finishing 14 games behind by year's end, collapsing under the weight of cascading, catastrophic injury woes.

As Falvey and others accurately pointed out, you can't pin all of that on the head trainer. Injuries are primarily a function of luck and uncontrollable factors, no matter who's in charge. But there were some situations that were handled oddly, and no one could say it was close to being an area they "didn't have to worry about," so the desire to make a change was valid. Especially with the ability to bring in a name they coveted.

Year one under Paparesta was by no means a picnic from a health perspective. The Twins still ranked among the league leaders in placements on the injured list and days lost to the IL. Much of that owed to challenges Paparesta inherited. But what really stands out is the way these challenges were managed and the way overall injury impact was mitigated.

The Twins went 11-22 after September 1st in 2022 as they faded from relevance. After September 1st last year, they went 18-10 before charging into the playoffs with nearly every key player (save Byron Buxton) available to them. Reviewing the season as a whole, there were some remarkable accomplishments from a durability and recovery standpoint:

• The Twins used only two catchers all year long.
• They got 139 of their 162 starts (86%) from five starting pitchers, and needed only eight starters total (minus openers). All of their starters, save Tyler Mahle, were healthy in October.
• Carlos Correa made 580 plate appearances despite battling plantar fasciitis throughout the season. 
• The Twins navigated tricky second-half health situations with other players like Brock Stewart, Royce Lewis, Jorge Polanco and others, in addition to Correa, but managed to have them all available and playing well when it counted most.

Again, it's important to emphasize that a head trainer only has so much influence on these things. Much of it is indisputably based on random luck and happenstance. But it's really hard to look at the sum result here and not feel like Paparesta worked a borderline miracle with his mere presence. Baldelli certainly took notice.

"Nick Paparesta was one of our best offseason pickups, along with all the players you can list," the manager raved to reporters at a season-ending presser in October.

Baldelli and the Twins will need to hope that Paparesta's program can continue to pay dividends in year two, because the training wheels are set to come off. The club was equipped to absorb significant health setbacks from guys like Mahle and Buxton last year because of the immaculate built-in depth behind them. This time around, Louie Varland is the rotation's first line of defense instead of its second. And at least right now, there is no one like Michael A. Taylor padding the CF depth chart. With players like Sonny Gray, Jorge Polanco, Emilio Pagan and Nick Gordon departing, layers of depth have been stripped away from a roster that still boasts plenty of high-end talent, much of it unproven over the rigors of a full major-league season.

Keeping most of that talent healthy and available -- especially in the rotation, which feels especially thin on contingencies going into this season -- will be essential to a successful season, and especially to setting themselves up for a deeper playoff run. That's a daunting proposition because it is largely out of anyone's control, and Twins fans have unfortunately been conditioned for pessimism on this front.. 

But after one season under Paparesta and the revamped training staff, it's easier to feel better about the things that can be controlled. He proved his prowess and then some in his first year as one of Minnesota's most underrated acquisitions.

How are you feeling about the Twins' health outlook for the 2024 season? Are you confident their improved outcomes can continue under Paparesta's leadership? Which situations have you most concerned as spring training gets underway?