Can the Paparesta Program Pay Off Again in Year Two?

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins made a change atop the training staff last offseason, and based on evidence, Nick Paparesta's hiring was a massive success. In stark contrast to the previous year, Minnesota's lineup was formidable and near full strength once October arrived.

With fewer roster contingencies in place heading into 2024, the Twins are counting on continuing to experience better fortune on the injury front.

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins had their eyes on Nick Paparesta long before they were able to finally pry their new head athletic trainer away from the Oakland Athletics in November of 2022. "The Twins requested permission to speak with Paparesta when they hired (Michael) Salazar three seasons ago," Dan Hayes wrote in The Athletic at the time, "only to learn he was happy in Oakland and under contract."

So it was a fortuitous twist of fate that Paparesta's attitude had shifted once the Twins decided it was time for another change in direction, following three years with their second choice at the helm. While making clear they didn't fully attribute the calamitous health issues that plagued their team to Salazar, the Twins understandably wanted a fresh start. Injuries became an overriding theme of 2022. They were tired of it, as reflected by Rocco Baldelli's grumpy demeanor in fielding a litany of injury-related questions during virtually every press scrum in the second half. 

The characterization of Paparesta's impact from his own general manager with the A's, David Forst, certainly painted an appealing picture. "Before Nick got to Oakland, we did spend a lot of time talking about injuries, talking about our medical department, answering questions to the media about it," Forst said at the Winter Meetings, per Hayes. "When he came in with an objective process and sort of remade the staff ... I think the biggest compliment I can give is it’s an area I didn’t have to worry about.”

No surprise, then, that when Minnesota got the chance to interview Paparesta following Salazar's dismissal, they hired him without delay. "It really stood out as someone we thought fit exactly what we were looking for,” Derek Falvey said.

Looking back at Paparesta's first year on board, his addition seemingly delivered on everything the Twins wanted from it. This is best exemplified by a comparative look at the late-season lineups. In September of 2022, Baldelli found himself consistently running out lineups full of backups and minor-leaguers. His team slid from one game behind Cleveland on September 1st to finishing 14 games behind by year's end, collapsing under the weight of cascading, catastrophic injury woes.

As Falvey and others accurately pointed out, you can't pin all of that on the head trainer. Injuries are primarily a function of luck and uncontrollable factors, no matter who's in charge. But there were some situations that were handled oddly, and no one could say it was close to being an area they "didn't have to worry about," so the desire to make a change was valid. Especially with the ability to bring in a name they coveted.

Year one under Paparesta was by no means a picnic from a health perspective. The Twins still ranked among the league leaders in placements on the injured list and days lost to the IL. Much of that owed to challenges Paparesta inherited. But what really stands out is the way these challenges were managed and the way overall injury impact was mitigated.

The Twins went 11-22 after September 1st in 2022 as they faded from relevance. After September 1st last year, they went 18-10 before charging into the playoffs with nearly every key player (save Byron Buxton) available to them. Reviewing the season as a whole, there were some remarkable accomplishments from a durability and recovery standpoint:

• The Twins used only two catchers all year long.
• They got 139 of their 162 starts (86%) from five starting pitchers, and needed only eight starters total (minus openers). All of their starters, save Tyler Mahle, were healthy in October.
• Carlos Correa made 580 plate appearances despite battling plantar fasciitis throughout the season. 
• The Twins navigated tricky second-half health situations with other players like Brock Stewart, Royce Lewis, Jorge Polanco and others, in addition to Correa, but managed to have them all available and playing well when it counted most.

Again, it's important to emphasize that a head trainer only has so much influence on these things. Much of it is indisputably based on random luck and happenstance. But it's really hard to look at the sum result here and not feel like Paparesta worked a borderline miracle with his mere presence. Baldelli certainly took notice.

"Nick Paparesta was one of our best offseason pickups, along with all the players you can list," the manager raved to reporters at a season-ending presser in October.

Baldelli and the Twins will need to hope that Paparesta's program can continue to pay dividends in year two, because the training wheels are set to come off. The club was equipped to absorb significant health setbacks from guys like Mahle and Buxton last year because of the immaculate built-in depth behind them. This time around, Louie Varland is the rotation's first line of defense instead of its second. And at least right now, there is no one like Michael A. Taylor padding the CF depth chart. With players like Sonny Gray, Jorge Polanco, Emilio Pagan and Nick Gordon departing, layers of depth have been stripped away from a roster that still boasts plenty of high-end talent, much of it unproven over the rigors of a full major-league season.

Keeping most of that talent healthy and available -- especially in the rotation, which feels especially thin on contingencies going into this season -- will be essential to a successful season, and especially to setting themselves up for a deeper playoff run. That's a daunting proposition because it is largely out of anyone's control, and Twins fans have unfortunately been conditioned for pessimism on this front.. 

But after one season under Paparesta and the revamped training staff, it's easier to feel better about the things that can be controlled. He proved his prowess and then some in his first year as one of Minnesota's most underrated acquisitions.

How are you feeling about the Twins' health outlook for the 2024 season? Are you confident their improved outcomes can continue under Paparesta's leadership? Which situations have you most concerned as spring training gets underway?

 

 

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[jmlease1]

Paparesta's ability to keep Buxton, Correa, Lewis, and Kirilloff on the field will be his big sign-posts for success this season. All three have had significant injury issues, and while Correa was able to keep playing and got healthy by the end of the season he was unquestionably hampered for most of the year. It's probably not fair to judge him on his ability to keep 4 guys who have struggled with durability playing and playing well...but it's going to be the key question this year for position players.

Despite moving on from Polanco, Gordon, and possibly Taylor the Twins still have good depth amongst their position players with a quality bench and prospects ready to step forward. We have 2 catchers we can count on in MLB plus a prospect in AAA who looks ready to take on some of the burden if needed. Castro and Farmer provide a lot of flexibility even if they might be overstretched as every day players, and Austin Martin and Brooks Lee are high quality prospects who also seem ready for trials in MLB. (not to mention guys like Miranda, Severino, or Helman).

Staring pitching is the other area where you hope Paparesta can help keep guys whole, because that is an area where they are a little thinner on proven guys. Lopez was a horse last season and hopefully Ryan learned his lesson about trying to hide an injury. (maybe the biggest knock on the new trainer, that he wasn't able to instill enough trust in the program that Ryan still thought not telling anyone and trying to play through it was a good idea?) but Ober has had issues before and Paddack and DeSclafani are both coming off a lot of missed time.

Team has enough relief depth that while making sure Duran and Stewart stay healthy is obviously a priority, there's a ton of depth in the relief corps going into the season.

 

[Karbo]

I think signing or drafting players need to be examined too. How many have injuries in their past?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I definitely agree with almost everything in this article, but it must be acknowledged that sometimes the biggest factor influencing team health is simply LUCK - good or bad or both.  A great trainer will absolutely help to keep people in good shape health-wise, and will certainly help speed recovery, there are enough wildcard type injuries that can happen to really mess things up.  Here's hoping for another fortunate year!

[Doctor Gast]

I'm a big fan of Paparesta. I'd say a great chunk of IL  time was inherited & was related to it.

Most injuries are not luck. When you don't train right, you overstretch a player they get hurt, when they get hurt & you don't fix the problem & you keep on running them out there, you are causing a bigger problem that'll take longer to heal. That's how the Twins were operating especially in '22.

But it doesn't matter how smart your trainer is if you don't listen to him it's all for naught, But the Twins listened to him & reaped the benefits. Now that the team is healthy we are a much better team, thanks to Paparesta. Of course, there are injuries that can't be helped like being HBP, but I expect an even healthier season.

[DocBauer]

Something that really struck me was point #2 in the Parker post:

2. pitcher’s arm care work involves working both sides (arm & glove side) for strength/stability.

Seriously, does this need to be said? I guess I had never thought of it before, always just thinking about the health of a pitcher's arm. So I guess I never really thought about the same kind of hard work on the opposite side of the body. Now it seems to me it should just be obvious. Perhaps it hasn't been so previously??

I think the one guy I'm a little worried about is Lewis as he had a couple different soft tissue issues last year. And I recall him saying something to the affect he thought it was due to playing more games in 2023 than his body had been used to the previous couple of seasons while being injured and rehabbing. That makes some sense. And I'm sure he's a very hard worker. But if there's one guy I'd really like Paparesta make sure is in optimal shape, it might be Royce.

 

[jkcarew]

Among the well qualified it’s probably the soft skills that separate. Trust, communication, respect that goes two ways.

I don’t think any one team trainer is likely to have a monopoly on special or unique technical info that would drive prevention or recovery time improvements any more than on a very marginal basis. I’m not trying to diminish the role…because the trust/communication/respect thing is real and goes a long way. Trainers that aren’t respected (for whatever reason) can be truly toxic in the clubhouse and behind the scenes.

But at the end of the day, just give me a person that the players can respect and get along with…and give me LUCK.