Jhoan Duran Injury Sets Up Interesting Bullpen Scenario

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins lost Jhoan Duran to end spring training and kick off the 2024 regular season, the bullpen was dealt a significant blow. His absence sets up an opportunity though, and the team will need to decide how they’ll use it.

After a relatively uneventful spring training, Rocco Baldelli’s club was dealt some unfortunate pitching news late in camp. Jhoan Duran and Caleb Thielbar are both going to start the year on the injured list. Anthony DeSclafani is also down, and he may be out all season. The Duran news is maybe most problematic as the team’s closer, but he also puts an opportunity in front of the manager.

The 2022 Twins traded their closer Taylor Rogers right before Opening Day. That meant the team was without a set answer in the 9th inning, and it was Emilio Pagan who led the club with his nine saves. Duran finished second with eight, but nine different players recorded a tally in the column. At this point it’s guaranteed Duran won’t be getting the first opportunity, but how the position shakes out when he returns remains to be seen.

Enter Griffin Jax.

Minnesota’s setup man has been perfect this spring. Jax has been good for a while now, and he elevated his stuff to becoming one of the better setup men in the sport last year. During Grapefruit League action, Jax has given up just three hits across 7 2/3 innings of actions while posting a 12/0 K/BB. To call his stuff dominant would be putting it lightly. That’s where the Twins will turn for saves out of the gate.

There’s a possibility that Jax could hold down the position too, and that may be to the benefit of the bullpen construction. While it’s less than ideal that Thielbar and Justin Topa are also out, Minnesota’s group may be among the best in the big leagues. They have electric arms as well as depth to come in and get outs no matter the situation. If Jax can perform in the 9th inning while Duran is out, it would give Baldelli the flexibility to unleash his fireballer during the highest leverage spots.

Brock Stewart has already worked in high leverage spots for Minnesota, and although removing Duran decreases the amount of talented arms in the pen, they have strong alternatives. Baldelli could opt to pick spots for saves while his closer is out, but shifting two of his best back-end arms is a pretty straightforward way to cover the workload.

It’s awesome to see the spectacle that is Duran’s entrance video and music at Target Field, especially during a night game, but unleashing that on the opposition at a moment’s notice could be game-changing. Wielding an arsenal featuring triple-digits and substantial movement, Duran can shut down the greatest leverage situations from the sixth inning on.

This season Minnesota’s starting rotation should be expected to be less reliable. Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are both gone, while Chris Paddack and Louie Varland are relatively uncertain commodities. Baldelli won’t have the benefit of letting each go a third time through the order regularly, and that means relying on the group behind the outfield wall. Having someone like Duran to come in when the game needs him most may be the way in which the Twins routinely slam the door.

Looking at the save as a statistic has largely become something to discuss during arbitration at this point of the game. Leverage opportunities are often more impactful at other moments before the final out, and that’s where Duran could truly incorporate his identity as a fireman. Asking him to do so would be bucking even the greatest trends of the sport right now, but his absence paired with Jax’s success could provide a runway for it to happen.

Baldelli’s bullpen is not going to be better out of the gate as it misses a pair of his best options. It may allow him a chance to set them up for the most success the rest of the way though, and having Duran at any given point during a contest is something that should scare the opposition.

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[mikelink45]

I keep reading we have the best BP - we lose Duran, Thielbar, Topa and still I see this written. It makes no sense to me.  Yes we have acquired a lot of arms - were other teams trying to bid for them?

Jax looked great the last two years although he had a period where he seemed lost.  Can he be the closer, can Brock Stewart sustain his newly found prominence or will he break down?

Then who?  Is Alcala finally going to find his success?  Is Funderburk going to make us forget Thielbar?

Who will be this years surprise - we really don't know.  Once we thought Pagan and Lopez would be our BP studs.  

My mantra is still, let's wait and see what happens, although that does not make for the most entices columns.

[JD-TWINS]

Not even sure Jax will close in Duran’s absence - maybe? It seems to be a bit of a circular thought though, leaving Jax at the back end to “spring” Duran on opponents. Jax there because his ever improving stuff is dominant.

IMO, seems a shuffling of chairs/roles just because it’s different. Jax’ upgraded stuff - his experience - should continue to play in high leverage situations from the 6th - 8th, while Duran anchors the 9th.

I guess my thought is if they’re both dominant & it ain’t broke………..

[TopGunn#22]

I would have thought Jax being the BP guy who would get save opportunities whenever Duran wasn't available would have been the plan all along.  I just bump everyone in the pen up one spot and re-set once Duran comes back fully healthy.

The only deviation going forward without Duran would be to see Funderburk get a save opportunity or two if the last out or couple outs are tough LH hitters.

[chpettit19]

If the pen is as deep and good as people seem to believe it'll be when healthy there's no need for a fireman. If they're all able to be late inning, shutdown type arms then it shouldn't matter who throws when. Just play your matchups and ignore everything else.

I assume the Twins will plant Duran right back in the 9th inning once he's healthy and rolling again. I assume Jax will take his 8th inning spot at that point as well. I'd guess Thielbar goes back to being the mid-inning fireman guy when he's healthy. And the rest will get assignments based on matchups at different parts of the opponents lineup in the 6th and 7th (and 8th and/or 9th when Jax and/or Duran are down for the night). I don't think Duran is going back to a fireman role.

[jorgenswest]

Duran is the reason the Twins are seen as a good bullpen. He is one of the best in the game. Remove Duran and they are mediocre at best. Fangraphs ranks bullpens by WAR. Duran represented 37% of that WAR.

The new additions in Okert (0.3), Jackson (0.3), Topa(0) and Staumont(0) barely move the needle.

 

[Vanimal46]

11 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Duran is the reason the Twins are seen as a good bullpen. He is one of the best in the game. Remove Duran and they are mediocre at best. Fangraphs ranks bullpens by WAR. Duran represented 37% of that WAR.

The new additions in Okert (0.3), Jackson (0.3), Topa(0) and Staumont(0) barely move the needle.

 

Our offense better start the season off on fire. Last year we squeaked out a lot of low scoring 1 run wins in April. Don’t see that happening this season. 

[USAFChief]

I keep reading about this mythical "fireman" role. "Just send reliever X into the game when a high leverage situation pops up."

Tell me how that works in real life...does Baldelli tell Duran to be warmed and ready from the 6th inning on, every night, just in case? 

"Firemen" don't exist. They never have never will.

And BTW, if I were a betting man--and I am--I'd bet heavily Duran goes immediately back to closer when/if healthy. 

 

 

[Whitey333]

Never understood how the Twins were even ranked as one of the best bullpen before the injuries.  Although they have some good arms there are just as many question marks.  As is normal with the Twins there are too many ifs.  For the Twins to do well most everything has to go right and fall into place.  Whereas they could be a solid contender they could just as well be the house of falling cards.  I'm hoping that their awful spring training record of 2nd worst in all of spring training isn't a reflection of the upcoming season.  I know it's spring training and they keep telling us the games don't matter.  We'll tell that to the teams with great spring training records.  I'm kind of let's wait and see what happens.  Remember they tell us every year when they play poorly and lose in April that those games don't matter.  Yes right. As far as Duran I'm sure he will slide right back into closer role when he returns. My big concern with him is that he throws so hard that he may be one 104 mph fastball away from Tommy John.  I sure hope not.  He is vital to any success the Twins have this year.  Go Twins!

[DocBauer]

With no further injuries, I see a solid pen that can stay afloat for the first month or so. Longer than that, yeah, I'm going to worry. But this pen healthy again in about a month? Yep, could be really, really strong.

If there's a silver lining at all, it's that of the Twins top 4 pen arms, what are probably arms #2 and #3 are healthy and ready to go. Hard to believe considering some of the Twins poor luck with injuries, but it could have been worse. Plus, none of the injuries appear to be serious or long term. 

The Twins' coaching staff is a lot smarter and more informed than I am, but for the short term, I think I'd keep Jax in the set up role he's used to, knowing he can occasionally go more than a single inning. With Stewart as the temporary closer, I think you monitor his innings better in that ONE INNING role. And really, I rate them about even in stuff and ability. So Jax staying in his usual role just makes more sense to me.