Jhoan Duran Injury Sets Up Interesting Bullpen Scenario

After a relatively uneventful spring training, Rocco Baldelli’s club was dealt some unfortunate pitching news late in camp. Jhoan Durán and Caleb Thielbar are both going to start the year on the injured list. Anthony DeSclafani is also down, and he may be out all season. The Durán news is the most problematic--but every problem is an invitation to discovery.

The 2022 Twins traded closer Taylor Rogers right before Opening Day. That meant the team was without a set answer in the ninth inning, and it was Emilio Pagán who led the club with his nine saves. Durán finished second with eight, but nine different players recorded a tally in the column. At this point, we know Durán won’t be getting the first opportunity, but how the position shakes out when he returns remains to be seen.

Enter Griffin Jax.

Minnesota’s setup man has been perfect this spring. Jax has been good for a while now, and he elevated his stuff to becoming one of the better setup men in the sport last year. During Grapefruit League action, Jax gave up just three hits across 7 2/3 innings of action, while punching out 12 and issuing zero free passes. That’s where the Twins will turn for saves out of the gate.

There’s a possibility that Jax could hold down the position, too, and that may be to the benefit of the bullpen construction. While it’s less than ideal that Thielbar and Justin Topa are also out, Minnesota’s group may be among the best in the big leagues. They have electric arms, as well as good depth to come in and get outs no matter the situation. If Jax can perform in the ninth inning while Durán is out, it would give Baldelli the flexibility to unleash his fireballer during the highest-leverage spots.

Brock Stewart has already worked in high-leverage spots for Minnesota, and although removing Durán decreases the number of talented arms in the pen, they have strong alternatives. Baldelli could opt to pick spots for saves while his closer is out, but shifting two of his best back-end arms is a pretty straightforward way to cover the workload.

It’s awesome to see the spectacle that is Duran’s entrance video and music at Target Field, especially during a night game, but unleashing that on the opposition at a moment’s notice could be game-changing. Wielding an arsenal featuring triple-digit fastballs and devastating movement on the curveball, Durán could put out fires earlier in the contest, instead.

This season, Minnesota’s starting rotation should be expected to be less reliable. Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda are both gone, while Chris Paddack and Louie Varland are relatively uncertain commodities. Baldelli won’t have the benefit of letting each go a third time through the order regularly, and that means relying on the group behind the outfield wall. Having someone like Durán to come in when the game needs him most may be how the Twins can most efficiently slam the door.

The save rule has become a primary driver of reliever compensation via arbitration, which makes it harder to take firemen like Durán out of that role once they secure it. A successful turn from Jax in his harder-throwing teammate's absence could create an opening for it, though.

Baldelli’s bullpen is not going to be better out of the gate; the unit is missing a pair of his best options. It may allow him a chance to set them up for the most success the rest of the way, though, and having Durán at any given point during a contest is something that should scare the opposition.