Pablo López and the Path to a Cy Young

[Ted Schwerzler]

The talk of the offseason was how the Minnesota Twins would address their starting rotation and where they would find the firepower to replace Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. The former finished runner-up in the Cy Young voting, and now it’s the front-of-rotation leftover, Pablo López, set to make his mark.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - USA TODAY Sports

Ultimately, the Minnesota Twins failed to bring in another playoff-caliber starting pitcher over the winter, whether by design or availability. Held back by payroll constraints, the only addition to the starting rotation was Anthony DeSclafani. While he isn’t going to touch the production of Sonny Gray, and maybe not even that of Kenta Maeda, it’s Pablo López where Rocco Baldelli’s hope lies.

Taking the ball on Opening Day and then hopefully at least 30 more times the rest of the season, López is near the top of the discussion when it comes to 2024 American League Cy Young candidates. Oddsmaker Bovada has him at +950, which trails only the Yankees Gerrit Cole, Blue Jays Kevin Gausman, and Astros Framber Valdez. MLB.com correspondent Sarah Langs called him the favorite, as the former Marlins starter looks to improve upon his seventh-place finish from 2023.

 

When the Twins sent Luis Arraez to Miami in exchange for López (and Jose Salas), they had a decent idea of what they were getting. López had shown a certain level of durability, and the stuff had always been impressive, if not trending towards elite. Acquiring him from an organization not known to develop players to their fullest extent, Minnesota also had an internal opportunity.

Immediately signed to a four-year extension to create familiarity and future continuity, both sides got to work. The Twins helped López unlock another level, and he flashed signs of becoming a true ace across the game. Introducing a sweeper that elevated his entire arsenal, the righty became a dominant force. His 3.33 FIP was impressive, and his 10.9 K.9 was a career-high. López walked a career-low 2.2 per nine, and neither his homers nor hits allowed were problematic. For the first year, it was an excellent baseline with a new organization.

At 28 years old in 2024, ZiPS projects López for a 3.68 ERA and 3.7 fWAR. Both of those numbers would come in behind 2023’s output, but projection systems are often conservative in nature. As a starting point, those projections seem to give Lopez an excellent opportunity to reach a new level.

 

In 2023, López generated a career-low 3.28 xFIP, and his xERA sat at a sparkling 3.00. His 3.37 SIERRA was also a career-best, and he gave up the lowest barrel rate over a full season in his career. In short, López found a way to completely dominate hitters while missing bats and keeping them off balance.

As has been the case with previous acquisitions, Minnesota found a way to add velocity as well. López sat 94.9 mph on his fastball, nearly a full MPH above where he had been ever before and almost 1.5 mph harder than he was throwing during his final season in Miami. That translated to a career-best 37.7% chase rate and a 14.5% whiff rate. An already good pitcher was continuing to show signs of becoming elite.

For López to continue expanding upon his abilities in 2024, another level must be unlocked. Despite Gray earning the higher percentage of Cy Young votes, Lopez looked to be the better pitcher over consistent stretches of the season, and especially in the playoffs. If he can put that together for the bulk of the season, he will not only be everything the Twins need but also find himself picking up hardware.

Last season, Lopez earned a trip to the All-Star Game for the first time in his career, and the Cy Young votes were the first he had also received. He should be able to repeat both of those feats this time, and starting the All-Star Game or earning his first Cy Young isn’t even close to out of the question.

It’s fair to have concerns about the totality of the Twins rotation and, specifically, how they will make up for the lost production. Being uncertain about the man at the top isn’t something to worry about. A Cy Young for Lopez would give Minnesota their first since Johan Santana won his second in 2006, and it would be fitting for a fellow Venezuelan to end the drought.

Do you think Pablo López has a legitimate shot at winning the Cy Young this year? Where would you rank him among the AL's favorites?

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[jmlease1]

Lopez has shown that he can put together incredible, dominant games where he can shut down any team. He's absolutely a number one starter, an ace by almost any definition. To contend for a Cy, he'll need to string some of those dominant games together to build a narrative too. He only had 2 stretches where he had a few poor outings bunched together; dropping those off is the other part to it. (2 weeks in May/June where he had Game Scores under 50 in 3 out of 4 outings, and then a relative meh finish to the season, with only one really standout performance in the last 7)

I think he has all of the qualities to keep improving as a pitcher. I think he'll be a serious contender, and that's great for the Twins.

[Fatbat]

To be fair, we are swapping Gray,Mahle,Maeda for Ober,Paddack,DeSclafani. We have also reloaded Ober,Varland,SWR with Varland,SWR,Festa,Lewis. Now, had we added anyone of the top FA’s or traded for a stud, we would have a top 3-4 rotation in MLB. 
Pablo is definitely a top 5-6 pick in the AL a CyYoung every year for the foreseeable future. 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO Lopez was underrated last year & should have gotten more recognition. At the end of the season, Lopez was arguably the best SP. Lopez should be one of those on the top of the list in '24. His durability should play a large role.

[Schmoeman5]

I went back and look at Pablo Lopez projections which were made after the trade for 2023. Basically said he would slot in nicely as a #2 in Minnesota but nowhere near the numbers he put up. He made the biggest jump stats wise in his career last year. Increased velocity and the addition of the sweeper being big reasons. Can he better that in 2024? That's the 64,000 dollar question. I think it's wishful thinking personally. And I expect him to perform close to what he did in 2023 maybe even a slight regression. If his numbers rose from 2020 through last season I'd be very optimistic that his numbers will improve again in 24. Hey. It'd be great if he made that jump to CY winner. I just don't see it happening. I find it amazing that some players get heaped with over exuberant expectations based on 1 good year. Lewis is being mentioned as a potential mvp with a 1/2 a year under his belt. He was injured several times last year included at years end where he was playing hurt. According to the posts on TD the Twins will be 1 2 3 in MVP and Cy Young winner in 2024. World Champions here they come

[Ted Schwerzler]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO Lopez was underrated last year & should have gotten more recognition. At the end of the season, Lopez was arguably the best SP. Lopez should be one of those on the top of the list in '24. His durability should play a large role.

You aren’t wrong. There was a significant stretch that I would’ve argued him as the Twins leading Cy Young candidate over Gray.

[Ted Schwerzler]

11 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I went back and look at Pablo Lopez projections which were made after the trade for 2023. Basically said he would slot in nicely as a #2 in Minnesota but nowhere near the numbers he put up. He made the biggest jump stats wise in his career last year. Increased velocity and the addition of the sweeper being big reasons. Can he better that in 2024? That's the 64,000 dollar question. I think it's wishful thinking personally. And I expect him to perform close to what he did in 2023 maybe even a slight regression. If his numbers rose from 2020 through last season I'd be very optimistic that his numbers will improve again in 24.

I think one thing you are massively discrediting is the organization he came from in relation to the one he joined. The next investment the Marlins make in serious player development will be their first. Lopez taking a steal forward joining Minnesota from Miami isn’t a mistake.

[Schmoeman5]

7 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

I think one thing you are massively discrediting is the organization he came from in relation to the one he joined. The next investment the Marlins make in serious player development will be their first. Lopez taking a steal forward joining Minnesota from Miami isn’t a mistake.

So you're saying that Alcantra and Luzardo are just wasting away in Miami and the Twins are churning out reclamation project Cy Young winners. I call hooey. And Miami has produced some good young arms in their 26 years of existence. And I never insinuated that the deal for Lopez is a mistake. I'd make that deal every day. 

[Jocko87]

It's a fun exercise to talk Cy Young but so many things factor into awards I prefer not to try to project them.  If he stays healthy he's certainly on the track to be in the running.

Reminder for everyone disappointed in not bringing in another top of the rotation piece, this is what they are aiming for. It's a tough needle to thread and if they don't think they have another chance at something like Pablo, I'm OK with not making the move.

[Ted Schwerzler]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

So you're saying that Alcantra and Luzardo are just wasting away in Miami and the Twins are churning out reclamation project Cy Young winners. I call hooey. And Miami has produced some good young arms in their 26 years of existence. And I never insinuated that the deal for Lopez is a mistake. I'd make that deal every day. 

I don't think they are incapable of having solid players, but the organization doesn't have a solid track record (especially recently) for being at the forefront of anything. I don't think you were suggesting the deal wasn't worthwhile, absolutely it was. I do think it's hard to believe that Lopez has found his ceiling though, especially with another year to work with Minnesota's staff.

[Ted Schwerzler]

9 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Reminder for everyone disappointed in not bringing in another top of the rotation piece, this is what they are aiming for. It's a tough needle to thread and if they don't think they have another chance at something like Pablo, I'm OK with not making the move.

To be fair, those things aren't mutually exclusive.

It's beyond fair to think that Ryan or Ober could step up in a big way. It's also fair to have hoped for something better than DeSclafani or banking on 125+ innings from Paddack would be occupying the 4/5 spots.

[stringer bell]

Having López start every fifth game is crucial to the Twins. I have him as the most vital player on the team followed by Durán and Lewis. 

[ashbury]

26 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Having López start every fifth game is crucial to the Twins. I have him as the most vital player on the team followed by Durán and Lewis. 

Not to threadjack, but where does Buxton figure into your season-changing ranking?

[stringer bell]

26 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Not to threadjack, but where does Buxton figure into your season-changing ranking?

They essentially played last season without him, so a ways down. 

[Fatbat]

6 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I went back and look at Pablo Lopez projections which were made after the trade for 2023. Basically said he would slot in nicely as a #2 in Minnesota but nowhere near the numbers he put up. He made the biggest jump stats wise in his career last year. Increased velocity and the addition of the sweeper being big reasons. Can he better that in 2024? That's the 64,000 dollar question. I think it's wishful thinking personally. And I expect him to perform close to what he did in 2023 maybe even a slight regression. If his numbers rose from 2020 through last season I'd be very optimistic that his numbers will improve again in 24. Hey. It'd be great if he made that jump to CY winner. I just don't see it happening. I find it amazing that some players get heaped with over exuberant expectations based on 1 good year. Lewis is being mentioned as a potential mvp with a 1/2 a year under his belt. He was injured several times last year included at years end where he was playing hurt. According to the posts on TD the Twins will be 1 2 3 in MVP and Cy Young winner in 2024. World Champions here they come

There are lots of possibilities. These young guys are wound so tight and seem to be fragile to the point that they never play a full season. Its only lottery odds that everyone stays healthy and performs at the highest of levels for 162 games. 

[JD-TWINS]

Lopez is squarely at the top of the heap with a group of possible Cy Young guys in the AL. Sarah Lang at MLB sees him as the Top contender.

He looked really good in the Playoffs. Stuff - composure - swag/aura - dominant!

Paddack pitches 110 innings with a 4.20 ERA - that’s an upgrade in both totals v. Maeda’s 2023. Am confident this is very likely to happen.

Varland/DeSclafani/Festa/SWR can piece together 220 innings……approximately. Am hoping they can go .500 in their probable combined 42 or so starts.

Gray was 8-8 …….Team was 15-18 in his starts.

Maeda was 6-8 ……..Team record in his 20 starts I can’t find.

Bottom line is with a more consistent offense & a better bullpen, the 4 guys combining to eat up Gray’s innings and then some, have a good opportunity to win more games even though their ERA won’t be as low

 

[Jocko87]

5 hours ago, ashbury said:

Not to threadjack, but where does Buxton figure into your season-changing ranking?

If he's right, top 3 easy.

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO, Cole is easily the front runner for the CY Young. He is durable (30, 33, 33 starts) he strikes out guys (243, 257, 222) , he pitches innings (181,33, 200,66, 209) and he wins games (16,13,15). On top of Cy young finishes of 5, 2, 4, 2, 9, 1 the last 6 years.

Also we haven't really see that Twins pitcher really make a improvement over there best year being the year before. (Gray's really only improvement last year compared to the year before was innings/health) I hope Lopez changes that trend or at least just pitches like he did last year.

 

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/18/2024 at 4:55 PM, Ted Schwerzler said:

To be fair, those things aren't mutually exclusive.

It's beyond fair to think that Ryan or Ober could step up in a big way. It's also fair to have hoped for something better than DeSclafani or banking on 125+ innings from Paddack would be occupying the 4/5 spots.

In ‘23, Maeda threw 106 innings - 4.22 ERA - he went 6-8. I realize Paddack was probably 2-3 mph higher than his norm when throwing out of the Pen in late ‘23, but I think he can manage meeting or being better than Maeda was in ‘23.

Festa/SWR/Varland/DeSclafani all blend together for 200 innings IMO & a .500 or better record in their 40 plus starts.

Lopez-Ober-Ryan were 30-24 in ‘23. With a mildly more consistent offense and a better Pen it seems, with reasonable health, the expectation should be for these guys to improve! ………..IMO all should be more definitive in this outcome, rather than “they might” improve. Maybe too lofty?

[JD-TWINS]

On 2/19/2024 at 10:04 AM, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, Cole is easily the front runner for the CY Young. He is durable (30, 33, 33 starts) he strikes out guys (243, 257, 222) , he pitches innings (181,33, 200,66, 209) and he wins games (16,13,15). On top of Cy young finishes of 5, 2, 4, 2, 9, 1 the last 6 years.

Also we haven't really see that Twins pitcher really make a improvement over there best year being the year before. (Gray's really only improvement last year compared to the year before was innings/health) I hope Lopez changes that trend or at least just pitches like he did last year.

 

With a better offense (even mildly better) & with a Bullpen expected to be the best in the AL, the expectations for more wins than eleven for Lopez is a pretty low bar, IMO.

He got in better shape in ‘23 than he has ever been in - new team - new league - new pitch (sweeper). Lots to adjust to over a season. He was lights out in 2 playoff starts - .71 ERA.

3rd in baseball in K’s in ‘23.

Expecting a step forward in ERA (was at 4.66 in mid-June) from 3.66 down to maybe 3.40 would be a nice goal.

No major improvements if you go back a half-dozen years but there have been many guys in franchise history to steadily improve.

Lopez was 11-8 ………again, he faced 2 Playoff teams and threw 12 plus innings with a .71 ERA. No reason to not think he can win 16 games with some health. Probably more if he starts 31-32 games.