Minnesota Twins 2024 PECOTA Projections: The Hitters

[Matt Braun]

What does Baseball Prospectus’s flagship projection system think of Minnesota’s batters?

Image courtesy of © John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports

Yesterday, we looked at the projections for the men who will toe the rubber for the Twins in 2024. Today, we’ll analyze the hitting side of things. I’ve chosen to use DRC+ as the sole hitting metric, simply because it’s the cleanest one Baseball Prospectus offers, and lord knows no one wants to read a table bigger than it should be. If you want a rundown on what exactly that stat means, click here.

I’ve added the top comps for each player, mainly because I find the exercise fun. They’re based specifically on age, so Carlos Correa’s Jim Fregosi comp—sorry, spoilers—relates to Correa moving into his age-29 season compared to Fregosi’s career up to that point. Also, don’t take them too seriously. Some comps are way closer than others, and just because someone is likened to another player doesn’t mean they’re cursed with the weight of mimicking their career. Anyway, on to the projections:

Nothing is too shocking here. Royce Lewis gets a much heartier projection than last year, thanks to his increased sample of dominance. He’s the 72nd-best position player in the league, which is incredibly impressive considering that systems like PECOTA are typically suspicious of players with a limited history of crushing the ball. It’s hard to fake that kind of power, though. 

Edouard Julien is an interesting case. Robert Orr laid out in a piece a few days ago that PECOTA will naturally be skeptical of a young player striking out at a 30+% clip while BABIPing .370, regardless of their contact quality. It’s certainly possible that that’s simply how his game works—and his plate discipline is legit, buoying his profile—but projection systems need to see more before they begin to give a guy like him the benefit of the doubt. Consider him a tough one to figure.

Perhaps the most shocking result is that Emmanuel Rodriguez, despite only reaching High-A in 2023, is projected to hold his own at the major-league level. Holding a .400 OBP over 99 games in a tough hitting environment obviously impressed the computer. That comp got a chuckle out of me, too.

Speaking of comps: I wasn’t expecting Carlos Santana’s to send me on a history trip like that. Earl Torgeson was a very good player, though, and one of the best the state of Washington ever bore.

Finally, I didn’t put him on the table, but Brooks Lee was way, way down the list, somewhere in the 1,000s. I think projecting anything solely based on minor-league stats can yield some goofy results. Still, perhaps his performance so far deserves more scrutiny than we’re giving it. Or maybe not. We’ll earn a better understanding of him as a player once he sees playing time in the majors—which could come as soon as this season.

If you would like to see any of this PECOTA stuff yourself, consider heading over to Baseball Prospectus's website to subscribe and read some of the best baseball writing in the business. Their alumni include Brandon Warne and Aaron Gleeman, and our editor, Matthew Trueblood, writes pieces for them as well. No one told me to write this; I truly believe they are one the best resources for analytical and creative baseball thinking currently in operation.

---

What are your reactions to these projections for the Twins offense? Which ones jump out? Where do you disagree with PECOTA. Weigh in below.

View full article

[Fatbat]

Computer models will get you in the ballpark (close to reality) until they don’t. 

[DJL44]

Jim Fregosi was a helluva ballplayer. The projections are right to expect Correa, Buxton and Lewis to drive this offense. It is more optimistic about Kirilloff than I am.

[jmlease1]

I appreciate that the guys at BP try to be clear about what the PECOTA projections really mean and what they're looking at. they aren't afraid to talk about what it means for someone like Julien and why the system is going to downgrade him when his performance on the field and the kind of hitter he is suggests otherwise. There's a good chance PECOTA is wrong about him this year because he's an outlier of a player and projection systems are notoriously bad at handling outliers. 

I do think it's hilarious that they did a projection on Emma, who I doubt spends any time on the active roster at Target Field this season. He's never taken an AB above A-ball, so a 2024 debut seems silly, even if he's a legit top 50 prospect.

Kinda fun to see Max Kepler compared to Hall of Famer Harry Hooper. I'd say Hooper is a bit of a marginal pick, with a lot of good seasons, but few that were even all-star level; he never made an all-star team but probably deserved a couple. And he played well for a long time, but he wasn't as good another Boston RF who isn't in the Hall: Dwight Evans. Kepler's a step down from Hooper career-wise; Hooper was good for 3 bWAR or better most years and Kepler has been more in the 2.5 range, but it's a fun little comp.

[MMMordabito]

Willi Castro Position = Yes

Love it.

[jkcarew]

Jim Fregosi had received MVP votes for 8 consecutive seasons heading into his age 29 season, so…

 

Is it just me, or does the computer seem to dislike Wallner…and HATE Jeffers?? I get that Jeffers’ BABiP spiked a bit last year…but he’s going to be as valuable offensively as Castro?

[SteveLV]

Hope they are light on Kepler and Castro--all of the Twins actually!--but those projections seem modest for those 2.

[Matt Braun]

3 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Jim Fregosi had received MVP votes for 8 consecutive seasons heading into his age 29 season, so…

 

Is it just me, or does the computer seem to dislike Wallner…and HATE Jeffers?? I get that Jeffers’ BABiP spiked a bit last year…but he’s going to be as valuable offensively as Castro?

Jeffers is a tough one because his batted ball only improved slightly and actually downgraded as far as barrel rate goes. I think skepticism around the BABIP spike is warranted, but his raw power likely keeps him around league average as a hitter, perhaps a little better. 

[JD-TWINS]

Vazquez weak offense - who the 13th guy is on the roster will not derail the Team’s season.

Julien - Lewis - Kirilloff - Correa - Kepler - Wallner - Buxton - Jeffers - Farmer - Castro…….10 core guys for offense. A couple may slide back a bit but everyone doesn’t have career years at once and everyone doesn’t regress at once. Some predictions are too high & some too low. There will be surprises. Obvious stuff, but not thinking this group can hit well enough to get deep in playoffs is just being negative.

Fingers crossed on health!!

[chpettit19]

That's a pretty sobering look at the lineup. I think they're probably too low on Julien, and Correa and Buxton are just extreme wildcards to me. But the rest seem to be reasonable, if maybe slightly negative outlooks. But that's not surprising given the lack of track record for basically the entire roster. Hard to predict guys with limited track records (Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Kirilloff) or wild performance swings (Kepler and Jeffers).

[KBJ1]

Well if 120 and above is supposed to be good, then this lineup doesn't look very good. I'd like to see some other teams #'s.

[jaguareffect]

Quote

Twins Video

 

Yesterday, we looked at the projections for the men who will toe the rubber for the Twins in 2024. Today, we’ll analyze the hitting side of things. I’ve chosen to use DRC+ as the sole hitting metric, simply because it’s the cleanest one Baseball Prospectus offers, and lord knows no one wants to read a table bigger than it should be. If you want a rundown on what exactly that stat means, click here.

I’ve added the top comps for each player, mainly because I find the exercise fun. They’re based specifically on age, so Carlos Correa’s Jim Fregosi comp—sorry, spoilers—relates to Correa moving into his age-29 season compared to Fregosi’s career up to that point. Also, don’t take them too seriously. Some comps are way closer than others, and just because someone is likened to another player doesn’t mean they’re cursed with the weight of mimicking their career. Anyway, on to the projections:

Nothing is too shocking here. Royce Lewis gets a much heartier projection than last year, thanks to his increased sample of dominance. He’s the 72nd-best position player in the league, which is incredibly impressive considering that systems like PECOTA are typically suspicious of players with a limited history of crushing the ball. It’s hard to fake that kind of power, though. 

 

Edouard Julien is an interesting case. Robert Orr laid out in a piece a few days ago that PECOTA will naturally be skeptical of a young player striking out at a 30+% clip while BABIPing .370, regardless of their contact quality. It’s certainly possible that that’s simply how his game works—and his plate discipline is legit, buoying his profile—but projection systems need to see more before they begin to give a guy like him the benefit of the doubt. Consider him a tough one to figure.

Perhaps the most shocking result is that Emmanuel Rodriguez, despite only reaching High-A in 2023, is projected to hold his own at the major-league level. Holding a .400 OBP over 99 games in a tough hitting environment obviously impressed the computer. That comp got a chuckle out of me, too.

Speaking of comps: I wasn’t expecting Carlos Santana’s to send me on a history trip like that. Earl Torgeson was a very good player, though, and one of the best the state of Washington ever bore.

 

Finally, I didn’t put him on the table, but Brooks Lee was way, way down the list, somewhere in the 1,000s. I think projecting anything solely based on minor-league stats can yield some goofy results. Still, perhaps his performance so far deserves more scrutiny than we’re giving it. Or maybe not. We’ll earn a better understanding of him as a player once he sees playing time in the majors—which could come as soon as this season. 

If you would like to see any of this PECOTA stuff yourself, consider heading over to Baseball Prospectus's basket random website to subscribe and read some of the best baseball writing in the business. Their alumni include Brandon Warne and Aaron Gleeman, and our editor, Matthew Trueblood, writes pieces for them as well. No one told me to write this; I truly believe they are one the best resources for analytical and creative baseball thinking currently in operation.

I like that the BP staff makes an effort to be transparent about the meaning and scope of the PECOTA estimates. They don't hesitate to discuss the implications for someone like Julien and the reasons the system will demote him despite the fact that his on-field performance and hitting style indicate otherwise. Because he is an oddity of a player and projection algorithms are historically awful at managing outliers, there's a strong possibility PECOTA is incorrect about him this year.