Twins GM Thad Levine: "We Have A Little Bit Of A Hole In Our Starting Rotation"

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, arby58 said:

If it's Julien for one year of Barnes, the short answer is no. The long answer is "Hades" No.

If Milwaukee were to trade someone like Burnes, what do you think they would actually listen on?

[Brock Beauchamp]

14 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I have been wondering about this lately. How true is it? How much trickier? If trades occur randomly in division trades would occur 4/29 or 13.8% of the time. How much less than 4/29 is it?

The only significant in division trade I recall this winter is the Red Sox sending Vergugo to the Yankees. They do occur.

They definitely occur but they tend to be lower octane moves, at least from what I've seen. The Twins traded for MAT last offseason and that was within the division. But I think getting a large deal done like Dylan Cease causes a lot more hesitation, especially from the team giving away prospects. 

[jorgenswest]

45 minutes ago, arby58 said:

If it's Julien for one year of Barnes, the short answer is no. The long answer is "Hades" No.

Right now the Brewers have Burnes for this year and a good comp pick. If a team comes in a gets this deal done it is going to take a player like Julien. We can wait until midseason to try to do the deal. They might be more open to a package of a few prospects at that point if they aren’t contending. The Twins also won’t get a comp pick when Burnes leaves in free agency.

[terrydactyls]

4 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Right now the Brewers have Burnes for this year and a good comp pick. If a team comes in a gets this deal done it is going to take a player like Julien. We can wait until midseason to try to do the deal. They might be more open to a package of a few prospects at that point if they aren’t contending. The Twins also won’t get a comp pick when Burnes leaves in free agency.

A month ago I looked at the Comp picks after round 1 between 2014 and 2022.  As I remember, there were several big names in the list.  However, the vast majority of names were of people that were unknown to me.  This brought me to the conclusion that, while a comp pick is nice if a player already on your team decides to test free agency, trading a player like Julien for a one-year rental (Burnes) and a 15% chance of drafting a future MLB player is not a sound strategy.

[Riverbrian]

This isn't the first time that a starting pitching acquisition has been mentioned by the front office this off-season. 

I got to take them at their word since the message has been repeated. 

My expectation is that a starter will be acquired because they are actually saying that is what they are looking for. 

Personally... I'm more interested in a big bat joining the lineup but I won't argue with a big arm if that is what happens.  

Just please... please... make it big. Whatever direction you go... make it big. 

No Bundy's... I don't want to hear the term innings eater any more. 

 

[tony&rodney]

The wait continues. The Twns and Falvey seem to be in a good place with this team. The starting five are solid and the lineup deep. Naturally, improvements are still hoped for and there is plenty of time for transactions.

While anything can happen, there is a substantial list of players that Falvey does not plan on moving in any trade. Among those on such a list: Jenkins, Lee, E. Rodriguez, Festa, Julien, Lewis, and Wallner. Players such as Polanco may be moved for a helpful MLB guy and perhaps a couple of prospects added if needed to complete a deal, but only for a substantial return. The guesses have flowed all winter. The "no way", "I would do that", and so forth fill time. We could be surprised by a Polanco, Raya, Schobel for Burnes or something similar. I'm quite confident in Louie Varland and feeling pretty good for Chris Paddack at the back end of the rotation. Depth is always a plus in pitching but the strategy of maintaining depth in the lineup is also sound.

 

[nicksaviking]

This seems to mesh with when a few days ago Baldelli said he absolutely expects the Twins to make a big move.

I don't want or expect Burns, but I do want and expect someone with high upside who's controllable beyond this year.

[jorgenswest]

Eno Sarris has Burnes ranked as the number 2 starting pitcher. That would be a huge upgrade. They wouldn’t have the prospect capital to get a pitcher of this caliber with multiple years of control. Those extra years are very expensive. Luzardo (ranked 34) has much more surplus value over 3 years and therefore more costly in trade but he would not be near the impact on the 2024 team. Take the one year. Trade Julien. Go for it.

[tony&rodney]

Last offseason, I was continually pushing for the Twins to acquire Edward Cabrera from Miami. The photo reminded me that he is still a possibility. The Marlins may be high on him but they also have a trove of guys to use as starters and Cabrera is out of options. The difficulty is meeting what Bendix wants (c, ss, ?). This could be a surprise trade. Kirilloff plus minor league player? Hard to guess here.

[wabene]

Please do not trade Julien for one year of a pitcher! This might just be a special bat. His fielding will continue to improve. Did you watch him in the playoffs? Eddie will win you games. This is my guy. Burnes represents a retail priced luxury item. That does not fit the shopping tendencies of this front office. If it did they would've traded for Alcantara not Lopez. A guy like Pablo is more up their alley. Good not great track record. Someone they think has more to unlock. Years of control. I'll bet when they do make their move it will be a pitcher that wasn't the subject of intense speculation on Twinsdaily. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

10 minutes ago, wabene said:

Please do not trade Julien for one year of a pitcher! This might just be a special bat. His fielding will continue to improve. Did you watch him in the playoffs? Eddie will win you games. This is my guy. Burnes represents a retail priced luxury item. That does not fit the shopping tendencies of this front office. If it did they would've traded for Alcantara not Lopez. A guy like Pablo is more up their alley. Good not great track record. Someone they think has more to unlock. Years of control. I'll bet when they do make their move it will be a pitcher that wasn't the subject of intense speculation on Twinsdaily. 

I can see the thinking, based on other moves that the team has made in the past. 

For me, getting someone similar to Pablo (maybe an extra year of team control, probably another tier to get to) would be someone like Mitch Keller or Dylan Cease. I could very much be swayed into trying for Nestor Cortes as well, and he MIGHT be available if the Yankees do end up signing someone like Blake Snell.

That said, I'd be all over adding Burnes for 2024 if he is attainable.

Is there someone more in that range that you like?

[arby58]

13 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I love Julien. But getting a pitcher like Burnes would arguably give the Twins the best rotation in the American League, no? You take that opportunity once in a while right?

Not saying I want to get rid of Julien. But if the twins can get Burnes, you do it 

Last year, in about 2/3rds of a full year of at bats, Julien had WAR of 2.6. He also had a 130 OPS+, which compares nicely to Texas Rangers star second baseman Marcus Semien's 122 from last year. So, extrapolate that WAR to a full season and you get 3.9.

Burnes is a fine pitcher, and his 10-8 record, 194 IP, 200 Ks, etc. resulted in a WAR of 3.5. Sorry, I'm not giving up six years of team control of a player with Julien's level of performance for one year of 30 starts by Burnes.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

Last year, in about 2/3rds of a full year of at bats, Julien had WAR of 2.6. He also had a 130 OPS+, which compares nicely to Texas Rangers star second baseman Marcus Semien's 122 from last year. So, extrapolate that WAR to a full season and you get 3.9.

Burnes is a fine pitcher, and his 10-8 record, 194 IP, 200 Ks, etc. resulted in a WAR of 3.5. Sorry, I'm not giving up six years of team control of a player with Julien's level of performance for one year of 30 starts by Burnes.

Burnes is a top of the rotation type ace. There truly aren't that many guys like him in mlb. How many pitchers would you truly rate above him in terms of aces? 5 maybe?

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

7 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I can see the thinking, based on other moves that the team has made in the past. 

For me, getting someone similar to Pablo (maybe an extra year of team control, probably another tier to get to) would be someone like Mitch Keller or Dylan Cease. I could very much be swayed into trying for Nestor Cortes as well, and he MIGHT be available if the Yankees do end up signing someone like Blake Snell.

That said, I'd be all over adding Burnes for 2024 if he is attainable.

Is there someone more in that range that you like?

For 1 season of Burnes it has to be someone lees than Julien for my taste. Cease for Julien, which would be 2 years of him, I could be swayed. 

For Burnes I propose something along the lines of Polanco, competitive balance pick and Louie Varland. I know we like Varland too. It's a tough call.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

For 1 season of Burnes it has to be someone lees than Julien for my taste. Cease for Julien, which would be 2 years of him, I could be swayed. 

For Burnes I propose something along the lines of Polanco, competitive balance pick and Louie Varland. I know we like Varland too. It's a tough call.

I'd be interested in knowing what Milwaukee would be open to trading him for. That's all. If they would take what you listed out, I'd do that too.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Just now, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd be interested in knowing what Milwaukee would be open to trading him for. That's all. If they would take what you listed out, I'd do that too.

Burnes is great.I would love to have him. But if it were for Julien right now, I would be PO'ed to be honest. LOL

Julien is going to be a great player. For years. We should be extending him like Detroit just did with Colt.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Burnes is great.I would love to have him. But if it were for Julien right now, I would be PO'ed to be honest. LOL

Julien is going to be a great player. For years. We should be extending him like Detroit just did with Colt.

I'd love that too. Julien is going to be a great player, I agree.

I more just meant, getting a pitcher the caliber of Burnes is going to hurt. That's all.

[wabene]

9 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Is there someone more in that range that you like?

I can tell you who I don't want them to get rid of, lol. I don't follow other teams enough to know the players and I'm not much into speculation. Looking at the overall talent level of the organization, I think they are on the right track. Yes they may have a middling system right now, but it looks better when you consider the immense amount of talent that has graduated in recent years. Their drafting and development has improved this club and I think they need to be careful with their assets right now to keep the ball rolling. I'd like them to spend a little less on a pitcher they think they can take to the next level. Pitching development is starting to look like a strength, lean into it. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

They state they are looking at FA and trade market.  I would guess that have contingency plans were something not to work out like they expect it to.  They have someone targeted, now its just a wait and see if it comes to fruition.   I would assume someone with multiple years of controllability is my guess.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just now, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

They state they are looking at FA and trade market.  I would guess that have contingency plans were something not to work out like they expect it to.  They have someone targeted, now its just a wait and see if it comes to fruition.   I would assume someone with multiple years of controllability is my guess.  

That works for me, and it tracks with what they've done before. They pivoted after not getting Zach Wheeler and brought in Josh Donaldson. I'd imagine they have a few options and know what the cost will be and are just waiting. IF one of the moves they are waiting on doesn't work out, contingency plans are important too.

Something will happen, I'm more certain than ever.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Burnes is a top of the rotation type ace. There truly aren't that many guys like him in mlb. How many pitchers would you truly rate above him in terms of aces? 5 maybe?

 

Based on 2023 performance, FanGraphs places him 19th. For them, number one was Wheeler, Gray was 4th, Cole 5th, Lopez 10th, Snell 14th, just to name some well known names. 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

5 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I like the idea of SWR being our 7th starter a lot more than Clevinger being a part of the rotation 

As of now, wouldn't SWR be the 6th?

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Last year, in about 2/3rds of a full year of at bats, Julien had WAR of 2.6. He also had a 130 OPS+, which compares nicely to Texas Rangers star second baseman Marcus Semien's 122 from last year. So, extrapolate that WAR to a full season and you get 3.9.

Burnes is a fine pitcher, and his 10-8 record, 194 IP, 200 Ks, etc. resulted in a WAR of 3.5. Sorry, I'm not giving up six years of team control of a player with Julien's level of performance for one year of 30 starts by Burnes.

Can you really extrapolate that? I mean he only had 48 plate appearances against lefties with a .447 OPS.

I really like him and think he will be good/great but lets not get crazy yet.

[TwinsDr2021]

36 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Based on 2023 performance, FanGraphs places him 19th. For them, number one was Wheeler, Gray was 4th, Cole 5th, Lopez 10th, Snell 14th, just to name some well known names. 

 

IMO a pitcher that averages over 6 innings a start is worth more than Fan Graphs.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

Please do not trade Julien for one year of a pitcher! This might just be a special bat. His fielding will continue to improve. Did you watch him in the playoffs? Eddie will win you games. This is my guy. Burnes represents a retail priced luxury item. That does not fit the shopping tendencies of this front office. If it did they would've traded for Alcantara not Lopez. A guy like Pablo is more up their alley. Good not great track record. Someone they think has more to unlock. Years of control. I'll bet when they do make their move it will be a pitcher that wasn't the subject of intense speculation on Twinsdaily. 

The Twins will not even consider a trade of Julien for Burnes. We don't have to worry about that. 

[hitterscount]

I tend to agree that Milwaukee is holding onto Burnes, but if you can land him you to go for it. He is better than Gray and would give the team a 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation that could take them deeper into the playoffs. You have Correa and every indication is Buxton will play some CF.. this window won't be there forever. We have infield depth, the only untouchable, IMO, is Lewis. 

Not sure what Lopez's situation was when they extended him, seems like they bought out a year of team control. Burnes wants out of Milwaukee, I have to believe he would listen to a fair extension offer if the team is playing well to start the season. If he gets to free agency there is no way you could afford him.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

As of now, wouldn't SWR be the 6th?

My expectation is they add a playoff level starter to the rotation. That would probably make SWR 7th, so that's what I'm going with.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Can you really extrapolate that? I mean he only had 48 plate appearances against lefties with a .447 OPS.

I really like him and think he will be good/great but lets not get crazy yet.

He had 408 plate appearances for the Twins and another 170 for St. Paul. They weren't hiding him much. He was also a rookie - you would expect some additional improvement, as he was only 24 last year.

[arby58]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Burnes is a top of the rotation type ace. There truly aren't that many guys like him in mlb. How many pitchers would you truly rate above him in terms of aces? 5 maybe?

 

 

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO a pitcher that averages over 6 innings a start is worth more than Fan Graphs.

Interesting to see how 'over 6 innings a start' aligns with Fan Graphs. There were 13 pitchers who pitched at least 6 innings per game last year. Nine of them ranked in the FanGraphs top 20, where Burnes was 19th. 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

 

Interesting to see how 'over 6 innings a start' aligns with Fan Graphs. There were 13 pitchers who pitched at least 6 innings per game last year. Nine of them ranked in the FanGraphs top 20, where Burnes was 19th. 

 

Burnes best year, by far, was 2021. His strikeouts per game, and fastball velocity, have dipped a little bit since then.

I think Milwaukee's development/organization are outstanding. He clearly isn't thrilled with how they treated him last year in the arbitration process. Maybe there is a way that the Twins could work with him and get his velocity bumped up just a smidge during his contract year?

I'm probably being naive in still thinking he is available. But there is definitely a top of the rotation arm in there, even if he isn't what 2021 brought.