Where Will Jorge Polanco Be Traded?

[harmony55]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Caballero is gone now. Rojas and Urias can platoon at 3B. DeSclafini in the Mariner rotation adds even more pitching depth. 2B is wide open for Polanco in Seattle.

Roster Resource hands Seattle's second base over to Josh Rojas, who last year gave the Mariners 1.2 fWAR in 46 games.

As a point of reference, last year Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games.

Luis Urias is projected to be the starting third baseman in Seattle.

The Mariners should have little interest in taking on Polanco's $11.25 million in guaranteed money.

[Mike Sixel]

The idea that contending teams don't deal players for prospects seems off to me, but I could be wrong.

I think he plays for MN to start the year, though, and they don't deal him. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, harmony55 said:

Roster Resource hands Seattle's second base over to Josh Rojas, who last year gave the Mariners 1.2 fWAR in 46 games.

As a point of reference, last year Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games.

Luis Urias is projected to be the starting third baseman in Seattle.

The Mariners should have little interest in taking on Polanco's $11.25 million in guaranteed money.

You do an excellent job of selling your favorite team, but i'm not buying the Mariner's improvements.  Please don't bet too much on Seattle. I would bet the under.

I don't believe the Mariners and Twins really match up in a trade unless Dipoto agrees to part with either of Gilbert or Kirby and that will not happen in my opinion.

Just like last year, plenty of teams will ask about Kepler and Polanco but the Twins would be smart to hold them for the coming season. I hope the answer to the post is that Polanco does not get traded.

Hey, we are only three months away from baseball.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, harmony55 said:

Roster Resource hands Seattle's second base over to Josh Rojas, who last year gave the Mariners 1.2 fWAR in 46 games.

As a point of reference, last year Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games.

Luis Urias is projected to be the starting third baseman in Seattle.

The Mariners should have little interest in taking on Polanco's $11.25 million in guaranteed money.

Josh Rojas posted a bWAR of 0.5 in 2023. He projects to 1.5 WAR in 2024 (over a full season). He's a bench player.

Urias may be the projected starter at 3B but he lost his job in 2023 in Milwaukee and ended up hitting .194 for the season.

The Mariners just took on Mitch Haniger's dead weight contract. They're not pinching pennies in 2024.

[AlwaysinModeration]

7 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Caballero is gone now. Rojas and Urias can platoon at 3B. DeSclafini in the Mariner rotation adds even more pitching depth. 2B is wide open for Polanco in Seattle.

But….the Mariners traded away Robbie Ray, so is their pitching depth now deeper, or shallower?

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

But….the Mariners traded away Robbie Ray, so is their pitching depth now deeper, or shallower?

Ray wouldn’t be back until mid season this year. Desclafini will be available opening day. 

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

But….the Mariners traded away Robbie Ray, so is their pitching depth now deeper, or shallower?

They traded Ray but got DeSclafini in return. Deeper since DeSclafini can pitch the whole season while Ray was out until July.

[harmony55]

1 hour ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

But….the Mariners traded away Robbie Ray, so is their pitching depth now deeper, or shallower?

Coming off Tommy John surgery, Robbie Ray is unlikely to pitch until August this year. Anthony DeSclafani should provide depth the entire season.

Ray won the Cy Young with a 2.84 ERA over 32 starts in 2021 when DeSclafani posted a 3.17 ERA in 31 starts.

DeSclafani is currently slotted sixth on Seattle's starter depth chart, just ahead of rookie Emerson Hancock.

[harmony55]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Josh Rojas posted a bWAR of 0.5 in 2023. He projects to 1.5 WAR in 2024 (over a full season). He's a bench player.

Urias may be the projected starter at 3B but he lost his job in 2023 in Milwaukee and ended up hitting .194 for the season.

The Mariners just took on Mitch Haniger's dead weight contract. They're not pinching pennies in 2024.

The Athletic reports that "The Giants are also throwing in roughly $6 million to make the deal cash-neutral in 2024, when Ray will make $23 million and Haniger/DeSclafani are owed a combined $29 million."

https://theathletic.com/5182003/2024/01/05/giants-robbie-ray-mariners-trade/

That math makes no sense but the deal reportedly is cash-neutral for the Mariners in 2024. In other words, on Friday the Mariners added two outfielders and a veteran starter without adding to the 2024 payroll.

Roster Resource currently lists Luis Urias and Josh Rojas securely in the the eighth and ninth slots in the Seattle lineup:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mariners

The Mariners were secure enough in their infield depth to trade away Jose Caballero.

[nicksaviking]

On 1/5/2024 at 10:15 PM, DJL44 said:

They traded Ray but got DeSclafini in return. Deeper since DeSclafini can pitch the whole season while Ray was out until July.

And we've seen this game before. The midseason July prediction for TJ recover always means late august at the earliest and spring training the following season at the most likely.

[cmoss84]

Blue Jays for Berrios...

[Doctor Wu]

On 1/6/2024 at 7:18 AM, tony&rodney said:

You do an excellent job of selling your favorite team, but i'm not buying the Mariner's improvements.  Please don't bet too much on Seattle. I would bet the under.

I don't believe the Mariners and Twins really match up in a trade unless Dipoto agrees to part with either of Gilbert or Kirby and that will not happen in my opinion.

Just like last year, plenty of teams will ask about Kepler and Polanco but the Twins would be smart to hold them for the coming season. I hope the answer to the post is that Polanco does not get traded.

Hey, we are only three months away from baseball.

And about 6 weeks from Spring Training!

[Doctor Wu]

On 1/7/2024 at 12:42 PM, nicksaviking said:

And we've seen this game before. The midseason July prediction for TJ recover always means late august at the earliest and spring training the following season at the most likely.

Yeah, we didn't get Paddack back until late September last year. The recovery time is certainly not an exact science. 

[MGX]

On 1/3/2024 at 1:34 PM, chpettit19 said:

And had an ERA of 4.24. High Ks and high walks make your profile closer to being a reliever than getting a top-100 prospect in return in trade. Guys without options who can't throw strikes but strike people out because their stuff is good but they can't control it almost always end up as relievers. Could be a very good one, but he's much closer to becoming a reliever than some front of the rotation starter. I don't think the Twins should add prospects to Polanco to get a reliever.

I agree on the concerns with Cabrera, but if we can make a deal straight up for Polanco or something close to it the Twins should consider it. 

Initially, Cabrera adds rotation depth with a lot of upside(if his control improves). That is exactly what we need for '24 - added depth in the rotation. As you pointed out he had a 15.2% walk rate & yet still pitched to a respectable 4.24 ERA. His career walk rate has been 14% & yet his career ERA is 4.01 so he has been a productive starter in spite of the high walk rate. There is some serious potential there & if he doesn't improve the control he's proven he can still be effective or possibly moved to the BP eventually.

He is inexpensive salary wise & in trade value, a great fit for our situation. In other words the ideal buy low player with high end potential.

We're not getting a SP at the level of Snell or Montgomery in FA's because of the salary they will command & in trade a Gilbert, Kirby or Luzardo are unlikely to be traded & if they are the trade cost will be substantial.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, MGX said:

I agree on the concerns with Cabrera, but if we can make a deal straight up for Polanco or something close to it the Twins should consider it. 

Initially, Cabrera adds rotation depth with a lot of upside(if his control improves). That is exactly what we need for '24 - added depth in the rotation. As you pointed out he had a 15.2% walk rate & yet still pitched to a respectable 4.24 ERA. His career walk rate has been 14% & yet his career ERA is 4.01 so he has been a productive starter in spite of the high walk rate. There is some serious potential there & if he doesn't improve the control he's proven he can still be effective or possibly moved to the BP eventually.

He is inexpensive salary wise & in trade value, a great fit for our situation. In other words the ideal buy low player with high end potential.

We're not getting a SP at the level of Snell or Montgomery in FA's because of the salary they will command & in trade a Gilbert, Kirby or Luzardo are unlikely to be traded & if they are the trade cost will be substantial.

I don't think they just need added depth, I think they need added quality depth. 4.24 and 4.01 are definitely respectable numbers, but his career FIP is 4.78 and was 4.43 in 2023. He's going into his age 26 season and has never been close to figuring out his control while playing in one of the better pitching development organizations in professional baseball. I don't know why we'd think it's suddenly all going to click for him here. He's very likely a reliever. If you're good trading Polanco for a likely reliever I'm not going to say that's crazy, but I don't think Cabrera is an answer to the Twins problem.

I'm not completely against bringing in Cabrera. He could be a stud of a reliever if he comes in and just throws filthy stuff for an inning at a time. He'd likely be pretty volatile in that role as well as he'd have days where he simply doesn't know where the ball is going, but he'd have a lot of Ks to hopefully be able to manage that in smaller sample sizes. But my hope is that the Twins are attempting to improve upon their 2023 results in 2024. I don't think Cabrera is at all likely to help with that goal as a member of the starting rotation because he simply isn't likely to suddenly find his control now that he's 26 and out of options.

[MGX]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think they just need added depth, I think they need added quality depth. 4.24 and 4.01 are definitely respectable numbers, but his career FIP is 4.78 and was 4.43 in 2023. He's going into his age 26 season and has never been close to figuring out his control while playing in one of the better pitching development organizations in professional baseball. I don't know why we'd think it's suddenly all going to click for him here. He's very likely a reliever. If you're good trading Polanco for a likely reliever I'm not going to say that's crazy, but I don't think Cabrera is an answer to the Twins problem.

I'm not completely against bringing in Cabrera. He could be a stud of a reliever if he comes in and just throws filthy stuff for an inning at a time. He'd likely be pretty volatile in that role as well as he'd have days where he simply doesn't know where the ball is going, but he'd have a lot of Ks to hopefully be able to manage that in smaller sample sizes. But my hope is that the Twins are attempting to improve upon their 2023 results in 2024. I don't think Cabrera is at all likely to help with that goal as a member of the starting rotation because he simply isn't likely to suddenly find his control now that he's 26 and out of options.

Fair points, agree with most of what you said. Where I differ is in his value even with the control problems. In 2022 his walk rate was high at 11.2 % & yet he proved to be very effective over 14 starts. In 2023 with the 15.2% BB rate his ERA was almost identical to Maeda & we gave him 20 starts last year so I think Cabrera would be a boost to our rotation.

I agree with you it would be nice to get a pitcher who is a legit Cy Young candidate to replace Sonny, but that appears unlikely.

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, MGX said:

Fair points, agree with most of what you said. Where I differ is in his value even with the control problems. In 2022 his walk rate was high at 11.2 % & yet he proved to be very effective over 14 starts. In 2023 with the 15.2% BB rate his ERA was almost identical to Maeda & we gave him 20 starts last year so I think Cabrera would be a boost to our rotation.

I agree with you it would be nice to get a pitcher who is a legit Cy Young candidate to replace Sonny, but that appears unlikely.

There's most certainly talent there. And I won't be upset if they get him (assuming the cost was reasonable). But he's not somebody I'm hoping they're targeting.

[harmony55]

According to Baseball Trade Values, Jorge Polanco's value relative to a starting pitcher would be four years of Kansas City left hander Daniel Lynch  IV, a 2018 first-round draft pick. BTV assigns surplus trade values of $9.4 million for Polanco and $9.3 million for Lynch.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/daniel-lynch-iv-663738?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

The 27-year-old Lynch, a former Top 30 prospect, remains on the Royals' 40-man roster although Roster Resource lists Lynch at Triple A Omaha:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/royals

Perhaps the Minnesota pitching lab can develop Lynch ala Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack. The Twins currently lack a lefthanded starter if Kody Funderburk doesn't count.

Lynch missed the last 10 weeks of the 2023 MLB season with a concerning shoulder injury but after one start in the Arizona Fall League pitched well in the Dominican Winter League:

https://www.mlb.com/news/daniel-lynch-iv-royals-2024-rotation-competition

A Red Sox website featured Lynch last week:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/1/17/24037290/red-sox-smash-or-pass-daniel-lynch-trade-rumors-analysis

An intradivision trade is not realistic because the likely noncontending Royals won't want to assume the $11.25 million guaranteed for a year (or two) of Polanco. However, the comparison is provided as an example of Polanco's worth in starting pitching.

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 hours ago, harmony55 said:

According to Baseball Trade Values, Jorge Polanco's value relative to a starting pitcher would be four years of Kansas City left hander Daniel Lynch  IV, a 2018 first-round draft pick. BTV assigns surplus trade values of $9.4 million for Polanco and $9.3 million for Lynch.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/daniel-lynch-iv-663738?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

The 27-year-old Lynch, a former Top 30 prospect, remains on the Royals' 40-man roster although Roster Resource lists Lynch at Triple A Omaha:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/royals

Perhaps the Minnesota pitching lab can develop Lynch ala Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Chris Paddack. The Twins currently lack a lefthanded starter if Kody Funderburk doesn't count.

Lynch missed the last 10 weeks of the 2023 MLB season with a concerning shoulder injury but after one start in the Arizona Fall League pitched well in the Dominican Winter League:

https://www.mlb.com/news/daniel-lynch-iv-royals-2024-rotation-competition

A Red Sox website featured Lynch last week:

https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/1/17/24037290/red-sox-smash-or-pass-daniel-lynch-trade-rumors-analysis

An intradivision trade is not realistic because the likely noncontending Royals won't want to assume the $11.25 million guaranteed for a year (or two) of Polanco. However, the comparison is provided as an example of Polanco's worth in starting pitching.

Here are some trades the twins have made over the past 3 years based on baseballtradevalues rankings...

 

1) 

Fairly even, really. It's a move I do every day of the year.

2) 

Big win for the Twins numbers wise at the time. This one was barely accepted by their model.

3) 

Cash did not go back, to Miami for Arraez. That was only added to have the model accept the trade.

4) 

Another one where cash had to be added to make their model accept the deal.

5) 

At the time, fairly even. 

 

There are others. The Gio trade to the Angels, for example, was virtually even. 

All of this is to just say, the website is fun, and they have their model, but it's not at all what front offices use to value their own players. 

[jorgenswest]

Manoah and Kikuchi are also in the Polanco range. There really are many.

The problem with Lynch is not his surplus value but his expected value for 2024. A lot of his surplus value is the result of four years of control spreading out that 20.1 of value. Kikuchi has almost the same AFV but it is all in 2024. Polanco would be an overpay for Bieber by surplus value but Bieber would provide a lot of value for 2024. Are the Twins seeking 2024 expected value for their staff or longer term potential value in return for salary relief?

Lynch would provide depth for 2024 and some hope but a trade for Lynch is more along the lines of a trade for a prospect and salary relief. I don’t think that I so the Twins stated intention in a trade for a major leaguer.

[Cory Engelhardt]

21 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Manoah and Kikuchi are also in the Polanco range. There really are many.

The problem with Lynch is not his surplus value but his expected value for 2024. A lot of his surplus value is the result of four years of control spreading out that 20.1 of value. Kikuchi has almost the same AFV but it is all in 2024. Polanco would be an overpay for Bieber by surplus value but Bieber would provide a lot of value for 2024. Are the Twins seeking 2024 expected value for their staff or longer term potential value in return for salary relief?

Lynch would provide depth for 2024 and some hope but a trade for Lynch is more along the lines of a trade for a prospect and salary relief. I don’t think that I so the Twins stated intention in a trade for a major leaguer.

I'm leaning towards the plan right now is for 2024 specifically. I wouldn't at all be shocked to see the push be for a pitcher who maybe is a free agent after 2024, or possibly 2025. At least compared to ones that have more team control.