The Table Setter, Dec 14, 2023: Ohtani Has an Opt-Out After All

[Matt Braun]

With no new Twins news in the papers or on the horizon, join Matt for yet another take on Ohtani, his confusion regarding Seth Lugo, and speculation on Minnesota's starter trade target. 

Image courtesy of © Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Ohtani’s Deferrals
I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about how I feel about Shohei Ohtani’s new deal. The emotion is something between frustration and annoyance. But why? Because of baseball’s inherent economic disparity? That’s nothing new to complain about; the sport has been unequal basically since its inception. I think, actually, I’m a little jealous--jealous that a team already healthy in its wealth is smart and attractive enough to pull off this deal. It’s somehow always the Dodgers, and never the Twins.

Is it bad for baseball overall? It’s undoubtedly shady…ish. Deferrals have always been around—hello, Bobby Bonilla—but besides some mocking from internet folks, the real, tangible effects it has on the team seem to be nil (unless you’re the Orioles; well done, Chris Davis). Sixty-eight million dollars is certainly a new frontier, though. We shall see what comes of it. 

Also, Ohtani can opt out if Mark Walter loses his status as controlling owner or if Andrew Friedman leaves the team. Jack Harris on Twitter notes that Joe Maddon had a similar clause in his contract, which allowed him to opt out and eventually sign with the Cubs. That one was centered on Friedman, too. People love working with that guy. Maybe that's what I'm really jealous of.

Lugo Blues
It seems that Seth Lugo’s deal with the Royals caused some consternation amongst Twins fans, and I guess I don’t see why. Derek Falvey doesn’t pay for pitching, period. His method has always been to seek out tradeable projects, keeping the dough for extensions and position players. I’m perfectly confident he’ll find another starter for whom to trade.

And Lugo himself? Is a 34-year-old with no history of being an effective starter the guy we will rue not having? I liked his potential five years ago. Now, I think he’s just a cromulent pitcher, overqualified as a reliever and moderately qualified as a starter. Good for the Royals, too. They haven’t had watchable baseball in years, and while Lugo’s arm won’t be the difference between the bottom of the barrel and the top of the division, it’ll be an improvement over their barren pitching pipeline. 

Who Will that Starter Be?
Good question. I’m not sure. I’m confident it won’t be Corbin Burnes—Falvey never pays for the name brand—but it will undoubtedly be someone on the perimeter of our view. Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller somewhat fits that criteria, but we are already hot on his trail, as seen by our writers’ trade suggestions earlier this off-season; the guy Falvey acquires will almost certainly be someone we’re not even considering. To throw a name out there, what about Trevor Rogers? He dominated in 2021 and commands an excellent fastball/changeup combo. Injuries erased almost all of his 2023 season—illustrating why teams might be scared of him—but the upside is apparent.

What do you think of the specialized opt-out clauses in Ohtani's deal? What would you give up for Rogers? Are you worried about calling him Taylor by accident over and over, if the Twins did bring him in? Let's dig into it.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Rogers would be a worthy gamble, and if you can get him back to his 2021 form you really have something. That said, even that year he threw 141 combined (between minors and majors) innings, and he's not really come close to that in any other year, Coming off of a year where he only threw 27 total innings (in 2023) I'd be hesitant to make him the PRIMARY addition. 

If they bring in one other pitcher who is coming off a healthy year with him (whatever that looks like) then this sounds good.

Also, cromulent. Good word. 

[Karbo]

Just imagine for a minute what would happen if Ohtani doesn't come back right from TJ surgery. Now the Dodgers are paying a guy an affordable 2 mil per year for 10 years and still owe him all that deferred money. Now imagine 5 years from now the age catches up to him. The dodgers can afford this, but the Twins would be crippled paying that deferred money for a guy that isn't even playing. And what if the next CB contract puts in some sort of clause that counts the deferred money? Any mid-market team could be sunk by that. I agree it would have been great to get a superstar like him, but IMO the risk isn't worth the reward. After all, he and Trout couldn't get the Angels to the playoffs.

[tony&rodney]

Mitch Keller is a good pitcher, the only decent starting pitcher for the Pirates. Pittsburgh has specifically stated he is not available and that their top goals for this offseason are in this order: SP, SP, and SP. While I would like it if Keller appeared as a Twin next season, I don't understand why Pittsburgh would trade him.

Can anyone reasonably explain why the Pirates would trade Keller? The only previous explanation was that the Pirates front office and owners were incompetent to a level that any team could take advantage of them. Hmmmm? 

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Also, cromulent. Good word. 

Embiggening vocabularies daily around here.

[Matthew Trueblood]

15 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Mitch Keller is a good pitcher, the only decent starting pitcher for the Pirates. Pittsburgh has specifically stated he is not available and that their top goals for this offseason are in this order: SP, SP, and SP. While I would like it if Keller appeared as a Twin next season, I don't understand why Pittsburgh would trade him.

Can anyone reasonably explain why the Pirates would trade Keller? The only previous explanation was that the Pirates front office and owners were incompetent to a level that any team could take advantage of them. Hmmmm? 

I can! The Buccos are not in a position to contend in 2024. They fully expect and badly need to be in such a position in 2025, though. Keller is under team control through '25, but arbitration is going to make him more expensive this year and still more so next. They're in the right phase of a protracted rebuild to trade Keller for a haul that will help them starting in '25 and keep their window open longer, once it does open.

[Matt Braun]

16 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Mitch Keller is a good pitcher, the only decent starting pitcher for the Pirates. Pittsburgh has specifically stated he is not available and that their top goals for this offseason are in this order: SP, SP, and SP. While I would like it if Keller appeared as a Twin next season, I don't understand why Pittsburgh would trade him.

Can anyone reasonably explain why the Pirates would trade Keller? The only previous explanation was that the Pirates front office and owners were incompetent to a level that any team could take advantage of them. Hmmmm? 

I don’t think they’re incompetent, but Keller only has two years of control left, and I don’t see the team being competitive that quickly. They could always extend him, of course, but now would be the most they’d ever get for him. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

Just imagine for a minute what would happen if Ohtani doesn't come back right from TJ surgery. Now the Dodgers are paying a guy an affordable 2 mil per year for 10 years and still owe him all that deferred money. Now imagine 5 years from now the age catches up to him. The dodgers can afford this, but the Twins would be crippled paying that deferred money for a guy that isn't even playing. And what if the next CB contract puts in some sort of clause that counts the deferred money? Any mid-market team could be sunk by that. I agree it would have been great to get a superstar like him, but IMO the risk isn't worth the reward. After all, he and Trout couldn't get the Angels to the playoffs.

I agree that the risk associated with this deal is being dramatically understated--especially by those now calling it a "mere" $460-million deal based on the deferrals' impact on present value. I know he'll make them a lot of money off the field and that they can invest the money in the meantime, but there's tremendous risk here.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The name doesn't really matter.  Will likely come from Marlins or Seattle, and will likely be a #3 pitcher the Twins think they can improve.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

26 minutes ago, Matt Braun said:

I don’t think they’re incompetent, but Keller only has two years of control left, and I don’t see the team being competitive that quickly. They could always extend him, of course, but now would be the most they’d ever get for him. 

This is where I'm at with Keller too. I don't know if they will extend him. They certainly haven't to this point. Maybe they hold off and listen more at this deadline (if an extension can't be made) but I'd be surprised if they don't either extend him, or trade him, before next offseason.

[PatPfund]

The Ohtani contract kinda smells, and cries out for baseball to tune their rules. One of those cases where the manipulation goes far beyond the point of the rules with serious implications for the game. Everyone keeps saying the Dodgers can afford it, but actually nobody who says so knows what they are talking about, because the Dodgers pay less than 3% of the money owed for 10 years, and nobody even knows who will own the team in a decade when the other 97+% starts coming due. Or what the state of the game will be (it isn't exactly on an unending up-escalator lately).

And the Dodgers won't be the last team to mortgage a future owner's future unless some restrictions are put on (a cap on the percentage of contract that can be deferred? requiring an owner to pay half of each annual deferred payment into an escrow account during the actual term of the contract? something else?), and sans restrictions some owner(s) will likely wreck their finances (and thus their team(s)).

Lugo for me isn't a specific "blue", just a sign the market will keep narrowing. And while last year helped restore some confidence for me, this FO has stood pat or waited out the market to ruinous effect in the past (post-2019 when we clearly needed pitching, we got JD and projects, a couple years ago we blew several top prospects for a recently injured starter who blew up physically, and a closer who blew up mentally, plus there was the whole Matty Shoe/Bundy/Archer messes). So until we know what we are getting, each signing will cause a twinge in me.

[tony&rodney]

46 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I can! The Buccos are not in a position to contend in 2024. They fully expect and badly need to be in such a position in 2025, though. Keller is under team control through '25, but arbitration is going to make him more expensive this year and still more so next. They're in the right phase of a protracted rebuild to trade Keller for a haul that will help them starting in '25 and keep their window open longer, once it does open.

This is a valid point. I have been aware of that (Keller contract) and should have addressed it in my comment above. I would think the Pirates should try to extend Keller's contract.

The Pittsburgh franchise has indicated they intend to compete. I guess it comes down to when the Pirates end the never ending rebuild. 

Like I said, Keller is a good pitcher. i like him and if the Twins can pick him up it might work out well all around. 

I try to think of trades from both sides, which is a little futile. As such, i don't see a decent reason for Pittsburgh to trade Keller unless they receive an offer they cannot refuse. They don't need position players, so maybe Raya, Festa, Varland, and Wallner+ or Culpepper+ instead of Wallner. In that case, it might work. On the other hand, I am on record as suggesting that the Twins do not trade any pitching unless it returns either Kirby or Gilbert. 

I'm just not seeing this match. I thought about how in late October. Others, including Tom Froemming I believe, have suggested trading for Keller and perhaps it all could be done. 

[Guest]

6 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Also, cromulent. Good word. 

I so wanted to be the first to comment on cromulent. Kudos to you. However, I would have said it was just an adequate word as opposed to a, "Good word.".    :)

Matt, as always, love your product!!

[SteveLV]

I don't understand these "Table Setter" daily updates.

Seems like a constant reminder that the Twins role at the table is leftovers only, and not until everyone else has signed and/or traded for the players they want.

[Scott51104]

I don't understand these "Table Setter" daily updates.

Seems like a constant reminder that the Twins role at the table is leftovers only, and not until everyone else has signed and/or traded for the players they want..

 

Apparently the Twins are crumulent

[Doctor Gast]

On 12/14/2023 at 9:53 AM, Matthew Trueblood said:

I can! The Buccos are not in a position to contend in 2024. They fully expect and badly need to be in such a position in 2025, though. Keller is under team control through '25, but arbitration is going to make him more expensive this year and still more so next. They're in the right phase of a protracted rebuild to trade Keller for a haul that will help them starting in '25 and keep their window open longer, once it does open.

IMO PIT are making a transition from rebuilding to becoming a contender so their focus is on SP- SP- SP. I don't think they'll trade him this year & will try to extend him down the road. Although it's a nice thought

[Doctor Gast]

If the Twins think they can control Cabera's control problem I'd be all over that but Rogers would work too. MIA wants catching but Vazquez doesn't work.

Just think if the Twins tried to sign Ohtani for $700MM+ & swung it, with all $ deferred except 2MM/ yr. for 4 (yrs) after 4 yrs he opts out. Just imagine how much $ the Twins would make in tickets, merchandizing (USA & JAP) broadcasting rights (USA & JAP) just for a fraction of what Castro makes.

Life sometimes isn't fair.

[Doctor Gast]

17 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Is Trevor Rogers Taylor Rogers brother?

No, but Tyler is

[Doctor Gast]

Hey Mat;

I seriously thought you'd take over for Nash at Locked On Twins (no knock on Brandon). But selfishly happy that you are able to write all these articles for us at TD.

[darin617]

On 12/14/2023 at 8:38 AM, Karbo said:

Just imagine for a minute what would happen if Ohtani doesn't come back right from TJ surgery. Now the Dodgers are paying a guy an affordable 2 mil per year for 10 years and still owe him all that deferred money. Now imagine 5 years from now the age catches up to him. The dodgers can afford this, but the Twins would be crippled paying that deferred money for a guy that isn't even playing. And what if the next CB contract puts in some sort of clause that counts the deferred money? Any mid-market team could be sunk by that. I agree it would have been great to get a superstar like him, but IMO the risk isn't worth the reward. After all, he and Trout couldn't get the Angels to the playoffs.

Kind of like when the Twins paid Mauer all that money.