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Ohtani’s Deferrals
I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about how I feel about Shohei Ohtani’s new deal. The emotion is something between frustration and annoyance. But why? Because of baseball’s inherent economic disparity? That’s nothing new to complain about; the sport has been unequal basically since its inception. I think, actually, I’m a little jealous--jealous that a team already healthy in its wealth is smart and attractive enough to pull off this deal. It’s somehow always the Dodgers, and never the Twins.
Is it bad for baseball overall? It’s undoubtedly shady…ish. Deferrals have always been around—hello, Bobby Bonilla—but besides some mocking from internet folks, the real, tangible effects it has on the team seem to be nil (unless you’re the Orioles; well done, Chris Davis). Sixty-eight million dollars is certainly a new frontier, though. We shall see what comes of it.
Also, Ohtani can opt out if Mark Walter loses his status as controlling owner or if Andrew Friedman leaves the team. Jack Harris on Twitter notes that Joe Maddon had a similar clause in his contract, which allowed him to opt out and eventually sign with the Cubs. That one was centered on Friedman, too. People love working with that guy. Maybe that's what I'm really jealous of.
Lugo Blues
It seems that Seth Lugo’s deal with the Royals caused some consternation amongst Twins fans, and I guess I don’t see why. Derek Falvey doesn’t pay for pitching, period. His method has always been to seek out tradeable projects, keeping the dough for extensions and position players. I’m perfectly confident he’ll find another starter for whom to trade.
And Lugo himself? Is a 34-year-old with no history of being an effective starter the guy we will rue not having? I liked his potential five years ago. Now, I think he’s just a cromulent pitcher, overqualified as a reliever and moderately qualified as a starter. Good for the Royals, too. They haven’t had watchable baseball in years, and while Lugo’s arm won’t be the difference between the bottom of the barrel and the top of the division, it’ll be an improvement over their barren pitching pipeline.
Who Will that Starter Be?
Good question. I’m not sure. I’m confident it won’t be Corbin Burnes—Falvey never pays for the name brand—but it will undoubtedly be someone on the perimeter of our view. Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller somewhat fits that criteria, but we are already hot on his trail, as seen by our writers’ trade suggestions earlier this off-season; the guy Falvey acquires will almost certainly be someone we’re not even considering. To throw a name out there, what about Trevor Rogers? He dominated in 2021 and commands an excellent fastball/changeup combo. Injuries erased almost all of his 2023 season—illustrating why teams might be scared of him—but the upside is apparent.
What do you think of the specialized opt-out clauses in Ohtani's deal? What would you give up for Rogers? Are you worried about calling him Taylor by accident over and over, if the Twins did bring him in? Let's dig into it.
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- PatPfund and Cory Engelhardt
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