The Twins Should Not Trade Max Kepler

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

in 2022 everyone was on the DL that year if I remember the Twins had the 2nd most DL days in all of baseball so having Kepler try to play through it while not a great idea, it was probably needed because everyone else was hurt.

 

Yep... No doubt.

The Illinois River has less Asian Carp than Twins on the disabled list in 2022. 

You make a good point worth considering and if you convince me of this possibility and you might. 

Kepler will merely transition from 2.5 of struggling to 2.5 years of injury prone.  

[Brandon]

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Yep... No doubt.

The Illinois River has less Asian Carp than Twins on the disabled list in 2022. 

You make a good point worth considering and if you convince me of this possibility and you might. 

Kepler will merely transition from 2.5 of struggling to 2.5 years of injury prone.  

Lots of players struggled in 2021.  That was after the extra-long layoffs from COVID.  lots of pitchers got hurt too.  Keuchel went downhill and you will find many others who got out of top baseball shape and struggled when coming back in 2021.  Kepler was one of them.  This does not justify what happened.  but Kepler was good in 2020 and struggled in 2021 and in 2022 was off to a solid start 2 months into the season and got hurt and played hurt.   2023 he got off to a bad start (I got nothing here) but rebounded and had good numbers the second half.  If I had to guess.  we played tougher competition in the first half of the season and our schedule was softer the second half.  Kepler was probably better than he was in the first half last year but not as good as he was in the second half either.  Thats my explanations.  

[Dean Sorenson]

I have been a Kepler fan for a long time. Even during his hitting slump I think his defense is worth keeping him around. Now that he seems to have found his bat again I would much rather hang onto him.

[specialiststeve]

Knowing when to trade guys is a challenging thing especially when fans get attached as the writer seems to be. 

Reality is he has been a very good defensive player but wildly inconsistent at the plate. 

His inhouse replacements are a plenty and not getting anything for the future for a player that we could clearly replace with a young player and get 90% of the production from is pretty short sighted. He has been a quality person and a decent player, but it is time to move on... Get some value for the future and look big picture....

 

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Besides I'm not allowed to bet on Kepler. I would have cut him in June. 

This made me laugh. I remember getting trashed for speaking up for Kepler, but I also remember that my belief in him was wobbling badly. There isn't much logic in why I love to see Max Kepler on the Twins. He seems like that rare player who has a run of a 5-7 years of his best baseball that began last July.

But then again ...... pumpkin.

[tony&rodney]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Players don't usually get healthier in their 30s.

Max Kepler is a beast and has just started his run of amazing years. It just took him a few years to balance everything out in his life. Now he figured it all out.

[Major League Ready]

38 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

Knowing when to trade guys is a challenging thing especially when fans get attached as the writer seems to be. 

Reality is he has been a very good defensive player but wildly inconsistent at the plate. 

His inhouse replacements are a plenty and not getting anything for the future for a player that we could clearly replace with a young player and get 90% of the production from is pretty short sighted. He has been a quality person and a decent player, but it is time to move on... Get some value for the future and look big picture....

 

You make a good point if they can 90% of the production from a younger player.   Larnach would replace him and  I just don't know if that Larnach will produce at what we would call 90%.  Plus, what if Larnach or Wallner get hurt?  Other teams have proven getting something for players on their way out sustains winning but we are pretty thin in the OF.

[RonCoomersOPS]

You don't want to lose Kepler for nothing, which is probably what will happen if we hold onto him into next year. That's JR-ball, and we've no reason to return to that.

You also don't want him to have a good-not-great season next year, only to accept a qualifying offer and turn back into a pumpkin in 2025. We already have a couple of large contracts that aren't really performing and don't particularly need another.

Any return won't be great, but we have the depth to cover his bat. We'll lose a fair bit on defense, surely, but given the need to add another plus arm to the rotation and the grim financial situation, I think you have to move Kepler for the best available return and allocate his dollars to the rotation.

[RpR]

16 minutes ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

You don't want to lose Kepler for nothing, which is probably what will happen if we hold onto him into next year. That's JR-ball, and we've no reason to return to that.

You also don't want him to have a good-not-great season next year, only to accept a qualifying offer and turn back into a pumpkin in 2025. We already have a couple of large contracts that aren't really performing and don't particularly need another.

Any return won't be great, but we have the depth to cover his bat. We'll lose a fair bit on defense, surely, but given the need to add another plus arm to the rotation and the grim financial situation, I think you have to move Kepler for the best available return and allocate his dollars to the rotation.

Based on what?

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

This made me laugh. I remember getting trashed for speaking up for Kepler, but I also remember that my belief in him was wobbling badly. There isn't much logic in why I love to see Max Kepler on the Twins. He seems like that rare player who has a run of a 5-7 years of his best baseball that began last July.

But then again ...... pumpkin.

I'm with ya just with less patience. I gave up last June... The Twins didn't and he took off so the Twins were right and I was wrong. But... I'll still contend that yes... I was wrong yet still right at the same time. 

Wrong because not having the Kepler that we had after the all star break would have been a blow.

Yet right because the team was struggling bad at the plate and changes needed to be made and we had two players (Gallo and Kepler) getting lots of playing time and not pulling their weight while on expiring contacts. There are baseball players in the minors who won't get a 26 man roster spot let alone the playing time that Kepler got for as long as he got. I just can't tolerate players getting chance after chance when other players get no chance because they get chance after chance. Kepler used up his chances and he was using up other players chances while performing badly... So... I'm right yet wrong cuz he turned it around. 

In the end... He's one of us. I'm a Kepler Fan... I want him to the player we all think he could be... but I'm a Twins fan first.  

Yeah... I pulled the plug. Good thing my plug doesn't plug into anything. 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

Kepler for the best available return and allocate his dollars to the rotation.

I believe this is one of the arguments for keeping Kepler. His salary is low. Trade him and we can sign a mediocre relief pitcher with the savings. 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

Personally I think Lee is further away than most people believe. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we don't see much Lee this year. Martin is likely closer but I doubt they want to play him as a permanent corner outfielder. Plus turning two starting positions over to unproven rookies is beyond risky. (Yes I understand that three rookies ended up starting in 2023 but none of them were given the starting job on opening day and all of them earned those jobs. None of them were expected to start right off the bat with the exception of maybe Royce Lewis after he returned from his ACL injury.)

Agreed. Lee has the potential to be a solid to very good MLB player over time. The problem is that he hasn't conquered AAA yet so that time is probably in the future, not this year. His slash line in AAA last year was .237/.304/.428. He also hit under .200 in MLB Spring Training last year. I'd love to see him take a big step forward at AAA this year and force his way onto the 26 man roster in July. He might, but he might not take that step until 2025 or even later. Let's not make plans about trading and keeping players for 2024 on the assumption that Lee will be ready to be an everyday MLB player next year. The evidence doesn't support that result, at least not yet. 

All of which doesn't matter when trading Polanco. If we can get a good return, trade him and the infield is Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, and Lewis, with Farmer, Castro and Miranda in reserve. Works for me. Farmer can play every day if there's an injury or Julien turns out to be a flash in the pan. Lee would be gravy but let's not count on that for next year. 

 

[DocBauer]

8 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

While I have always thought Kepler to be a valuable player, Wallner is basically the same player for 1/10 the price.

What we need to fill is the gaping hole in LF with a 5 tool RH bat. Lourdes Gurriel fills that void. Trading Kepler, Polanco plus prospects for SP & bullpen help is our best path forward.

I was part of the chorus singing for moving on from Kepler last year. 

I'm glad I was wrong.

I am of the opinion that he can...more or less...repeat his June on performance from last year as long as he keeps doing what he was doing, and doesn't go back to his previous no power/contact approach. His rise in K percentage was not to an alarming level, and by actually hitting the ball hard he became the hitter I think we'd all always hoped he'd be. Now, just keep doing it Max!

And I wouldn't him unless overwhelmed, as many have already stated, there isn't a really good replacement OF for the hole you've created. (And we're still uncertain about CF right now as well).

BUT, if Polanco and Kepler could be moved for a SP...hopefully a nice BP arm as well...and their $20M could bring in Lourdes Gurriel, I'd be totally on board with that! Is it practical though? Almost sounds like too many moving parts to make it happen.

[Hunter McCall]

15 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

Knowing when to trade guys is a challenging thing especially when fans get attached as the writer seems to be. 

Reality is he has been a very good defensive player but wildly inconsistent at the plate. 

His inhouse replacements are a plenty and not getting anything for the future for a player that we could clearly replace with a young player and get 90% of the production from is pretty short sighted. He has been a quality person and a decent player, but it is time to move on... Get some value for the future and look big picture....

 

I'm not attached to Max Kepler. However, I'm confident the Twins can't replace him. The numbers, metrics, and eyes all support that. Going into the season with Trevor Larnach slated as an everyday starter would be a complete failure to Twins fans.

As I mentioned, there's not enough value in a one-year rental of Kepler to make trading him worth it. If the Twins were to trade him it would be a salary dump. My point is that there are other more replaceable players they can dump the salaries of without experiencing the extreme drop off that would come from moving from Kepler to Larnach. On his own, the Twins just won't get that much of a return for Kepler which is why his value lies in Minnesota.

[Hunter McCall]

15 hours ago, RonCoomersOPS said:

You don't want to lose Kepler for nothing, which is probably what will happen if we hold onto him into next year. That's JR-ball, and we've no reason to return to that.

You also don't want him to have a good-not-great season next year, only to accept a qualifying offer and turn back into a pumpkin in 2025. We already have a couple of large contracts that aren't really performing and don't particularly need another.

Any return won't be great, but we have the depth to cover his bat. We'll lose a fair bit on defense, surely, but given the need to add another plus arm to the rotation and the grim financial situation, I think you have to move Kepler for the best available return and allocate his dollars to the rotation.

We don't have the depth to cover his bat though. Someone has to play the outfield and it will be Trevor Larnach if the Twins trade Kepler. That would be a disastrous result and for what? A mid-level prospect? A mid-level bullpen guy? An extra $10M? Unless you package Kepler for a large return trading him just doesn't make sense.

[Hunter McCall]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I believe this is one of the arguments for keeping Kepler. His salary is low. Trade him and we can sign a mediocre relief pitcher with the savings. 

 

This is a good point. $10M doesn't get you a ton. Kenta Maeda just signed for $12M per year for two years. Max Kepler is a steal at $10M. You want to talk about cutting salary and getting value for your money? You do it by not cutting ties with reliable, cheap players who you won't be able to replace in-house.

[Hunter McCall]

13 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Agreed. Lee has the potential to be a solid to very good MLB player over time. The problem is that he hasn't conquered AAA yet so that time is probably in the future, not this year. His slash line in AAA last year was .237/.304/.428. He also hit under .200 in MLB Spring Training last year. I'd love to see him take a big step forward at AAA this year and force his way onto the 26 man roster in July. He might, but he might not take that step until 2025 or even later. Let's not make plans about trading and keeping players for 2024 on the assumption that Lee will be ready to be an everyday MLB player next year. The evidence doesn't support that result, at least not yet. 

All of which doesn't matter when trading Polanco. If we can get a good return, trade him and the infield is Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, and Lewis, with Farmer, Castro and Miranda in reserve. Works for me. Farmer can play every day if there's an injury or Julien turns out to be a flash in the pan. Lee would be gravy but let's not count on that for next year. 

 

This is exactly right. The Twins have the bodies to replace Polanco. They don't have the same bodies to replace Kepler.

I also think Yunior Severino is a much better bet to contribute to the Twins in 2024 than Brooks Lee. Lee's time will come, but like you mentioned and I have mentioned before, he's not ready.

[Hunter McCall]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I was part of the chorus singing for moving on from Kepler last year. 

I'm glad I was wrong.

I am of the opinion that he can...more or less...repeat his June on performance from last year as long as he keeps doing what he was doing, and doesn't go back to his previous no power/contact approach. His rise in K percentage was not to an alarming level, and by actually hitting the ball hard he became the hitter I think we'd all always hoped he'd be. Now, just keep doing it Max!

And I wouldn't him unless overwhelmed, as many have already stated, there isn't a really good replacement OF for the hole you've created. (And we're still uncertain about CF right now as well).

BUT, if Polanco and Kepler could be moved for a SP...hopefully a nice BP arm as well...and their $20M could bring in Lourdes Gurriel, I'd be totally on board with that! Is it practical though? Almost sounds like too many moving parts to make it happen.

Absolutely. 100% agree!

[jmlease1]

16 hours ago, specialiststeve said:

Knowing when to trade guys is a challenging thing especially when fans get attached as the writer seems to be. 

Reality is he has been a very good defensive player but wildly inconsistent at the plate. 

His inhouse replacements are a plenty and not getting anything for the future for a player that we could clearly replace with a young player and get 90% of the production from is pretty short sighted. He has been a quality person and a decent player, but it is time to move on... Get some value for the future and look big picture....

 

The problem is the in-house replacement aren't all that plentiful; the most likely options are: Gordon, who had a dreadful year along with a major injury. Larnach, who hasn't shown he can adjust to MLB pitching once they make their first adjustment to him. After that it's....Martin? Who has never played a game in MLB, but still might be needed to backup CF.

Looking at the big picture is correct, and what I see is that the Twins are a playoff team in 2024, but don't have a lot of corner OF depth that's close in the system. The best prospects to fill those roles are in AA or A ball and are realistically another year away. (Rodriguez, Rosario, and Jenkins currently). Going into last season it was easier to look at moving on from Kepler because Gordon was coming off a good season, Larnach had promise, and Wallner was knocking at the door and the team had signed Gallo (whom we didn't know would be a zero after a hot month). If we move on from Kepler, we'll need some reinforcements otherwise we're blowing a hole in what right now looks like a strong lineup.

Right now Kepler would probably be hitting 6th or 8th in the lineup, which is exciting. not interested in screwing that up unless it's part of a deal that improves the rotation. (My proposed batting order, as of today: Julien, Polanco, Correa, Wallner, Buxton, Kirilloff, Lewis, Kepler, Jeffers. That's a tough one to navigate!)

[Hunter McCall]

7 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

The problem is the in-house replacement aren't all that plentiful; the most likely options are: Gordon, who had a dreadful year along with a major injury. Larnach, who hasn't shown he can adjust to MLB pitching once they make their first adjustment to him. After that it's....Martin? Who has never played a game in MLB, but still might be needed to backup CF.

Looking at the big picture is correct, and what I see is that the Twins are a playoff team in 2024, but don't have a lot of corner OF depth that's close in the system. The best prospects to fill those roles are in AA or A ball and are realistically another year away. (Rodriguez, Rosario, and Jenkins currently). Going into last season it was easier to look at moving on from Kepler because Gordon was coming off a good season, Larnach had promise, and Wallner was knocking at the door and the team had signed Gallo (whom we didn't know would be a zero after a hot month). If we move on from Kepler, we'll need some reinforcements otherwise we're blowing a hole in what right now looks like a strong lineup.

Right now Kepler would probably be hitting 6th or 8th in the lineup, which is exciting. not interested in screwing that up unless it's part of a deal that improves the rotation. (My proposed batting order, as of today: Julien, Polanco, Correa, Wallner, Buxton, Kirilloff, Lewis, Kepler, Jeffers. That's a tough one to navigate!)

Hit the nail right on the head. And just to add to it something that has been said many times... Kepler only costs 10M! Unless they package him for a starter, there's no point in moving him just to move him. He's a very necessary part of the lineup.