Guardians win the Draft Lottery, will have No.1 overall pick in 2024 draft

[Rik19753]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/guardians-win-draft-lottery.html

The Guardians won the draft lottery despite having just a 2% chance to land the 1st overall pick.

This is the first time that the Guardians have had the No.1 pick in the draft in the franchise's history and the first time they've had a top 10 pick since the 2013 draft.

White Sox are 5th and Royals are 6th.

 

While the implications of this won't be felt at the major league level in a while, I would have much preferred the Royals or White Sox having a premium draft pick because there is probably a much higher chance that they blow the selection or player development. 

The Guardians already have a great farm system and seem to have a great infrastructure for developing players, and this should only help them. I don't know anything about the players in the 2024 draft, but here's to hoping that they don't end up with a stud that will torment the Twins in the coming years.

[MN Brian]

Twins at 21 ... and at 33 for Sonny Gray ...

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2024-draft-lottery-results

[Nine of twelve]

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[Fatbat]

4 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/guardians-win-draft-lottery.html

The Guardians won the draft lottery despite having just a 2% chance to land the 1st overall pick.

This is the first time that the Guardians have had the No.1 pick in the draft in the franchise's history and the first time they've had a top 10 pick since the 2013 draft.

White Sox are 5th and Royals are 6th.

 

While the implications of this won't be felt at the major league level in a while, I would have much preferred the Royals or White Sox having a premium draft pick because there is probably a much higher chance that they blow the selection or player development. 

The Guardians already have a great farm system and seem to have a great infrastructure for developing players, and this should only help them. I don't know anything about the players in the 2024 draft, but here's to hoping that they don't end up with a stud that will torment the Twins in the coming years.

Ive read a couple mock drafts. Its heavy on college bats OF and 1st base. A couple real nice college pitchers. Definitely no clear cut #1 yet but a pitcher most likely wont be the first pick. 

[gunnarthor]

With those two picks, we should get some solid choices. Seems like it's a lot of power bats who profile as 1B/DH/corner OF. Since these drafts are such crapshoots, I just want as many picks as possible. 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-draft-prospects-2024-top-players-ranked-kurtz-caglianone/dbb84501a58e4bd6211f24cb

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-draft-pick-predictions-for-2024-draft

[Nine of twelve]

I think the lottery is at least somewhat helpful in reducing tanking, especially among middle-of-the-pack teams where it's easier to move up or down in the standings simply because there are more teams with similar records. However, it seems wrong to me that a team can move from the 10th position to the first position as Cleveland did, even if there's only a small probability of doing so.

I haven't researched this, but my guess is that tanking rarely makes a difference of more than 3 or so positions in selection order. So based on that it seems logical to modify the lottery so that a team can not move up or down by more than three positions. This would not be difficult to do. To determine the first position select a team at random from the lowest four finishers. For the second position add the fifth lowest finisher to the remaining teams and select. For the third position add the sixth lowest finisher and select. If the lowest finisher has not yet been selected that team chooses fourth. Continue in a similar fashion until the 30 selections have been determined.

[Fatbat]

@Nine of twelve I thought there is some sort of max position loss in place. I could be wrong. 

[FlyingFinn]

38 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

However, it seems wrong to me that a team can move from the 10th position to the first position as Cleveland did, even if there's only a small probability of doing so.

Was it wrong for the Twins to move up last year almost the exact same # of spots to get to #5 in a draft in which there was a clear cutoff in talent at #6? I just don't remember anyone on TD saying that was wrong.

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@Nine of twelve I thought there is some sort of max position loss in place. I could be wrong. 

Washington actually got selected for the 1st and 2nd picks in the lottery, but will be picking 10th. As a revenue sharing payer they can't be in the lottery (top 6 picks) in back to back years so they got bumped down.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Was it wrong for the Twins to move up last year almost the exact same # of spots to get to #5 in a draft in which there was a clear cutoff in talent at #6? I just don't remember anyone on TD saying that was wrong.

Yeah I dont see changing the rules just because a team in our division hit the lottery this year.  Get it😉

[gunnarthor]

4 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

I think the lottery is at least somewhat helpful in reducing tanking, especially among middle-of-the-pack teams where it's easier to move up or down in the standings simply because there are more teams with similar records. However, it seems wrong to me that a team can move from the 10th position to the first position as Cleveland did, even if there's only a small probability of doing so.

I haven't researched this, but my guess is that tanking rarely makes a difference of more than 3 or so positions in selection order. So based on that it seems logical to modify the lottery so that a team can not move up or down by more than three positions. This would not be difficult to do. To determine the first position select a team at random from the lowest four finishers. For the second position add the fifth lowest finisher to the remaining teams and select. For the third position add the sixth lowest finisher and select. If the lowest finisher has not yet been selected that team chooses fourth. Continue in a similar fashion until the 30 selections have been determined.

I'm ok with teams being able to move up. Tanking in baseball and basketball was (is) a huge problem that made the sport less fun for the fans. Give credit to the NFL, those teams rarely tank. But we had years where some teams were tanking the season from day 1. Anything to reduce that is good, in my opinion. 

[DJL44]

I don't think baseball teams tank to get the #1 pick. They tank to avoid paying player salaries so they can put a lot of money in the bank. They're not actively trying to lose, they're just not trying to win.

[Nine of twelve]

11 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Was it wrong for the Twins to move up last year almost the exact same # of spots to get to #5 in a draft in which there was a clear cutoff in talent at #6? I just don't remember anyone on TD saying that was wrong.

OK, you'll hear me say that now. I don't think the lottery should move any team more than about 3 positions.

[Fatbat]

https://puckettspond.com/posts/2024-mlb-draft-order-minnesota-twins-pick The Yankees had a tough couple days!