Max Value: 3 Reasons Why the Twins Should Trade Max Kepler

[David Maro]

This has become a Laeral and Hardy situation and almost laughable.Who's in left,who's in center and now who's in right.If Wallner could play right Kepler would of been traded in July.The FO hasn't found a LF for years now and Buxton can't play CF,do they really want to be looking for a RF too.If Buxton can't play CF opening day of Sping Training buy him out or see if he let a trade happen.If the team needs help at the trade deadline use Kepler then.To put Kirilloff in the outfield gives the team no 1st baseman.Now you have who's on 1st and who's on 2nd.Texas won the WS with the same 1st,2nd and SS playing every game.Can't win the WS with plug and play position players.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

If he's worth a QO then he can't be replaced by Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon for 2024 like the premise of this article. You can't have it both ways. He's certainly not going to get a QO from the penny-pinching Twins because the risk he accepts a $21M contract and blows a hole in the budget is really high.

I have never suggested he can be replaced by Larnach.  My position has been the return would have to be significant for Kepler to trade him because we are thin in OF depth.   You avoided the entire point of the post.  I was asking for your opinion as to the potential for him to post numbers similar to Hernandez or even Soler and what would that mean for an offer.  If Kepler produces a wRC+ of 126 like he did this year, my guess is he would get at least 3/50M in free agency.  There would be very little in him accepting a QO.

[TopGunn#22]

I would caution anyone thinking the Twins will win the division in a breeze.  Cleveland has great pitching.  A lot of it is great YOUNG pitching.  They should have Tristen McKenzie back and may or may not trade Shane Bieber.  All Cleveland needs is better health and a little more hitting.  So don't dismiss them so easily. 

The White Sox and Royals are terrible.  But Detroit is getting better.  The Tigers had a LOT of pitching injuries last year, but if their young pitching gets healthy, they have some emerging offensive talent in Greene, Torkelson and Carpenter. 

That's why this self imposed salary reduction is a poor plan for the Twins.  It's not like they will be out the entire $55 million from Balley in 2024.  And with a defending division championship and a good start next April, attendance should be solid for the Twins.  They really don't need to be "limiting" themselves so quickly.   

[rv78]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

That price tag is fairly well set at $25 million per year or up to $43 million per year on a short term contract. Savings of $10 million from trading Max Kepler would not be enough to sign a #4/5 guy hoping for a rebound.

What is your basis for your thinking to add "an Ace type pitcher?" 

I mean, many of us on Twins Daily like the idea, but there is not a single precedent of the Twins signing a top free agent pitcher.

Current payroll is $120M with a target of $135M max. With $10M from Keplers contract that's $25M available. need a little more for a longer term deal, trade Polanco too. Now you've got $35M to get the deal done. It's not rocket science.

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, rv78 said:

Current payroll is $120M with a target of $135M max. With $10M from Keplers contract that's $25M available. need a little more for a longer term deal, trade Polanco too. Now you've got $35M to get the deal done. It's not rocket science.

You missed the main point. While many people, including myself, have hoped the Twins might sign a top free agent this has never happened. 

FWIW, rocket science is just higher level math and physics; not that hard. 

[RpR]

8 hours ago, rv78 said:

It' The youth movement needs to continue.

Youth like Celestino, Refsnyder, Cave, Rooker, Blankenthorn, Kirilloff, Larnach, Rordvedt....?

Put right in the middle between Kansas City and Chicago.

Without Farmer, Solano, Castro, Kepler , Taylor the Twins would have been fighting Cleveland for the title, not run away with it.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

Youth like Celestino, Refsnyder, Cave, Rooker, Blankenthorn, Kirilloff, Larnach, Rordvedt....?

Put right in the middle between Kansas City and Chicago.

Without Farmer, Solano, Castro, Kepler , Taylor the Twins would have been fighting Cleveland for the title, not run away with it.

Kepler was important.  The other 4 guys ranked 8th,9th,11th and 15th on the team measured by wRC+.  The top 4 guys were Lewis, Wallner, Jeffers, and Julien.  Why you would even mention Celestino, Refsnyder, Cave, and Blankenhorn is hard to understand.

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

If Kepler produces a wRC+ of 126 like he did this year, my guess is he would get at least 3/50M in free agency. 

< 10 % chance of that happening. Bet on his career numbers, not his career year numbers.

[rv78]

26 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Kepler was important.  The other 4 guys ranked 8th,9th,11th and 15th on the team measured by wRC+.  The top 4 guys were Lewis, Wallner, Jeffers, and Julien.  Why you would even mention Celestino, Refsnyder, Cave, and Blankenhorn is hard to understand.

RpR drinks the kool-aid. To make the rose colored glasses even brighter you have to ignore the young guys that actually got us to the playoffs and mention some of those that weren't even on the team in 2023. Meanwhile don't mention the veterans that did little to nothing to get us there, like Correa and Buxton and Gallo. $60M down the toilet in 2023. With the exception of about one and a half seasons of being good out of 9 seasons total, he thinks Kepler is going to make a difference. Double Wallners numbers so he would have got the same number of at bats as Kepler in 2023 and he out-produces Kepler. And that's using a good half season from Kepler. A normal year of him and it isn't even close. 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Kepler was important.  The other 4 guys ranked 8th,9th,11th and 15th on the team measured by wRC+.  The top 4 guys were Lewis, Wallner, Jeffers, and Julien.  Why you would even mention Celestino, Refsnyder, Cave, and Blankenhorn is hard to understand.

You said youth movement needs to continue, they were youth, simple as that.

[JD-TWINS]

I’ve been very pro keeping Kepler & all for trading Polanco. Polanco isn’t durable enough to value highly anymore. He needs to be moved, with our numerous other options at 2B & 3B.

Kepler is part of a less deep outfield with Buxton’s status being seriously in doubt. Kepler is at a high value after the last 3.5 months on the grass. However, after considering that we can probably get Duvall as a bat v. LH pitching & some pinch hitting & OF depth for not much more than $8-$10M it may be worth a change. We could even re-sign Michael A. Taylor for a depth piece instead of Duvall.

We trade both Polanco & Kepler & even with all the arbitration signings, we have payroll down to $103M……..we also gain some level of assets - a reasonable pitcher possibly by coupling a couple prospects and maybe Winder/Headrick with either Polanco or Kepler.

Wallner in RF - Castro/Gordon in CF - Larnach in LF v. RH pitching is reasonable. Duvall (or like, even Taylor) can play against LH pitching with Castro & either Wallner or Larnach.

Duvall ($9M) - Gordon - Larnach - Castro - Taylor ($6M) - Wallner

Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff - Farmer (Castro & Gordon for additional depth)…….Farmer is depth at 1B as well

Vazquez - Jeffers

Example V. LH pitching:

Taylor CF - Duvall RF - Castro LF - Lewis 3B - CC SS - Farmer 2B - Kirilloff 1B - Buxton DH - Jeffers C (substituting Duvall for Solano in ‘23 because he plays OF)

Martin is an option instead of Taylor/Duvall.

Lee is coming so somebody gets traded at deadline or earlier in July.

[RpR]

46 minutes ago, rv78 said:

RpR drinks the kool-aid. To make the rose colored glasses even brighter you have to ignore the young guys that actually got us to the playoffs and mention some of those that weren't even on the team in 2023. Meanwhile don't mention the veterans that did little to nothing to get us there, like Correa and Buxton and Gallo. $60M down the toilet in 2023. With the exception of about one and a half seasons of being good out of 9 seasons total, he thinks Kepler is going to make a difference. Double Wallners numbers so he would have got the same number of at bats as Kepler in 2023 and he out-produces Kepler. And that's using a good half season from Kepler. A normal year of him and it isn't even close. 

Yep, and don't forget Wallner's .000 Batting Average in the post season.

[tony&rodney]

Last season I called for playing time early and often for Julien and Wallner. They were quite raw and the gnashing and gnawing of teeth early on was opposed to these two. My only point here is that I like to see a few rookies get playing time sometimes, but also understand there will be ugly growing pains.

Correa, Solano, Kepler, Taylor, Castro, and Farmer were the only Twins to appear in 120 or more games last season. Veterans are almost always a key part of a winning team. Solano and Taylor are now gone.

It is quite a gamble/stretch to believe that Wallner, Larnach, or Gordon will easily surpass much less equal the play of Kepler as a corner outfielder. Can it happen? Yes, of course.

The team budget is unknown but stated as being more in line with income or fancy words to that effect. We just saw Kenta Maeda sign  for roughly  2/$24 million. There is about $120 million already accounted for and it seems like $130 million is close to a ceiling or even high. This is important because it means that adding guys for $15-30 per year on multi-year deals is unlikely. Trading Vazquez may happen but it would be very surprising if it cleared up any more than $5 million. Kepler going creates a hole that is going to be tough to fill. Who is available at that price? 

The Twins seem to be in a bit of a pickle as far as adding players. Guys like Hoskins, Turner, and Gurriel Jr. will be costly. Giolito may command up to $20 million. 

Falvey is scrounging the rosters for ideas where the Twins can exchange low cost players from their roster for players who fill a niche for Minnesota. Maybe, just maybe Miami would be a partner for some of our younger guys who need an opportunity, but Miami won't add much salary.

Most everyone doubts that Falvey will swing big using the best of our young players and prospects. The July trading deadline may bring a future chance to bolster the roster. We shall see.

Few teams across baseball will listen to bulk or veterans additions in return for good pitchers when their own teams suffer a scarcity of arms. Thus, teams like PIT, LAA, CIN, and others are unlikely trading partners. Somehow it seems like deals will be with guys like Larnach, Sands, and Winder. The hot stove is cold now. Hey, next week all of the big heads get together for cocktails and who knows what? 

[rv78]

54 minutes ago, tony&amp;rodney said:

It is quite a gamble/stretch to believe that Wallner, Larnach, or Gordon will easily surpass much less equal the play of Kepler as a corner outfielder. Can it happen? Yes, of course.

The Twins have gambled on Kepler for 9 seasons and he's paid-off in 1 & 1/2 total. Time to pass the torch.

[rv78]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Yep, and don't forget Wallner's .000 Batting Average in the post season.

Kepler's 5 for 23 with 10 strikeouts wasn't anything to brag about either. 

[mnfireman]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Kepler was important.  The other 4 guys ranked 8th,9th,11th and 15th on the team measured by wRC+.  The top 4 guys were Lewis, Wallner, Jeffers, and Julien.  

Top 4 wRC, plus Kirilloff, who was 6th but only played 88 games, or not, none of Lewis (58), Wallner (76), Jeffers (96) and Julien (109) played more games than any of Farmer (120), Solano (134), Castro (124), Taylor (129) and Kepler (130). Only Taylor, 96 wRC, was below 100, so it's not like they didn't perform at or above league average.

4 hours ago, rv78 said:

Double Wallners numbers so he would have got the same number of at bats as Kepler in 2023 and he out-produces Kepler. And that's using a good half season from Kepler. A normal year of him and it isn't even close. 

Doubling Wallner's numbers would have given the league more time to find and expose the holes in game, as the Blue Jays and Astros did in the play-offs (and I am a Wallner fan and understand he made adjustments throughout last season). Lewis, Julien and Jeffers all would have also regressed with more PAs as well.

I am all for getting the young guys in the line-up, but without those veterans (Castro is only 26) to fill in during times of injuries and ineffectiveness, and RpR is right, the Twins would have been closer to battling Cleveland for 3rd than running away with the Central last season (the ChiSox and KC were horrible last season).

[rv78]

6 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Doubling Wallner's numbers would have given the league more time to find and expose the holes in game, as the Blue Jays and Astros did in the play-offs (and I am a Wallner fan and understand he made adjustments throughout last season). Lewis, Julien and Jeffers all would have also regressed with more PAs as well.

I am all for getting the young guys in the line-up, but without those veterans (Castro is only 26) to fill in during times of injuries and ineffectiveness, and RpR is right, the Twins would have been closer to battling Cleveland for 3rd than running away with the Central last season (the ChiSox and KC were horrible last season).

"Doubling Wallner's numbers would have given the league more time to find and expose the holes in game,"

"I am a Wallner fan and understand he made adjustments throughout last season"

Which is it? You say he would have been worse yet you say he made the adjustments. So, if he would have gotten twice as many at bats he wouldn't be able to make adjustments? The BlueJays and Astros exposed the holes in his game..... He got a total of 8 at bats. Scored a run and had 2 RBI's without getting a hit. Kepler had 23 at bats, scored 1 run and had ZERO RBI's. I'm just assuming here...... but if Wallner had been given 23 at bats his production would have been better than Keplers.

[Major League Ready]

12 hours ago, DJL44 said:

< 10 % chance of that happening. Bet on his career numbers, not his career year numbers.

I probably would not bet even money but <10% seems overly pessimistic.  He was mediocre for the first two months and then hit at a 138 clip for the last 4 months to end up at 126.  Did the shift get in his head?  IDK but I just am not inclined to say there is basically no chance.  I would put the odds of him breaking 120 at 40% so all I am saying is the completely writing him off is a little over the top.

[Brian Kingfield]

I’m pretty on the fence. Everybody wanted him gone at the trade deadline last year, but I’m sure glad we kept him.

The argument for trading while high is a good one, but I’d be more onboard with that philosophy if we didn’t have a need in centerfield and a young outfield in general. It could be nice to have a veteran out there for one more year while the young guys settle in.

I’m worried we could get some Jose Miranda situations with some of the young guys this year. I’m all for the youth movement but depth really worked for us last year. Without Kep in the outfield it starts to feel a bit thin out there.

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, rv78 said:

RpR drinks the kool-aid. To make the rose colored glasses even brighter you have to ignore the young guys that actually got us to the playoffs and mention some of those that weren't even on the team in 2023. Meanwhile don't mention the veterans that did little to nothing to get us there, like Correa and Buxton and Gallo. $60M down the toilet in 2023. With the exception of about one and a half seasons of being good out of 9 seasons total, he thinks Kepler is going to make a difference. Double Wallners numbers so he would have got the same number of at bats as Kepler in 2023 and he out-produces Kepler. And that's using a good half season from Kepler. A normal year of him and it isn't even close. 

I assume pretty much everyone here looks at team stats which tell the story without much analysis needed.  Where the production came from is very clear so it's a bit astonishing to me that anyone can look at the facts supporting the position of keep the young guys in the minors where they belong and play the veterans.  The season would have been quite dismal without the contributions of our younger players.  Perhaps even more baffling is that success for teams in the bottom half of revenue is absolutely dependent upon developing young players.  Why anyone would detest the most important aspect of building a mid market team just defies logic.  

[rv78]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

Where the production came from is very clear so it's a bit astonishing to me that anyone can look at the facts supporting the position of keep the young guys in the minors where they belong and play the veterans.  The season would have been quite dismal without the contributions of our younger players. 

This.

The kool-aid drinkers can't get past the Buxtons, Keplers, Correas, and Gallo types that the FO has bought into and they are really the ones that continue to plague this team. Just because they are the highest paid hitters on the team they think they are the best players and the Twins can't win without them, when in all reality, the Twins won despite them. Extending Buxton was a mistake. Signing Correa was ok but not at the level of Salary he received. $15-20M per year would have been more than enough for what he brings. Kepler has been 3+ years of over-pay for his production. Gallo was one of the worst over-pays in Twins history. A $1.8M Willi Castro out produced him. I'm not saying veterans aren't important. It's just unfortunate that most of the veterans that the Twins have the most money tied up in, just aren't worth the money invested in them.

[tony&rodney]

12 hours ago, rv78 said:

The Twins have gambled on Kepler for 9 seasons and he's paid-off in 1 & 1/2 total. Time to pass the torch.

I hear you. Consider that Kepler has only a year left on his contract, the return from a trade is iffy, the Twins are hurting for outfielders, and that Max has always been, including his worst seasons, pretty much average using OPS+. Put another way - what would you give up if you were trading for Kepler (specific to team and player)?

If the Twins can be a better team through some transaction, I'm not opposed to any trades. Max Kepler has been the definition of a solid regular in every year with the Twins. People expected him to be a superstar and never accepted average from him.. His half year of excellence in 2023 was even greeted with suspicion. I'm not sure what folks or you expect. 

While we can see Emmanuel Rodriguez as a player who could reach or surpass the level put up by Kepler, he isn't likely to be ready yet. I like Wallner quite a bit,  but he still has some major holes in his game to fix. This is where the Twins are with Kepler right now. He and Polanco are the most underrated Twins in several decades.

[KBJ1]

As much as we like like Kepler & Polanco, the time to trade them.is NOW!

A package deal for a controllable SP with upside.

Where we need to go free agency is for a RH power hitting left fielder. That has-been a gaping hole since Rosario left.

Wallner is Kepler redux in right field & Martin will have to step up & take CF.

The Twins have 3 needs: SP, bullpen  setup guy, power hitting LF.

Have no choice but to trust that Kiriloff,  Martin & Julien/Lee are healthy & ready.

Buxton & Miranda would be a bonus.

[tony&rodney]

12 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

Where we need to go free agency is for a RH power hitting left fielder.

Likely the best choice of free agent outfielders is left-handed Cody Bellinger. RH power hitting outfielder? The best right-handed outfield bat on the market is Lourdes Gurriel Jr. He would be a slight upgrade offensively from Kepler, perhaps. He is available for about 3/$50 million. I would be ok with that. The Twins wouldn't be so enamored. Teoscar Hernandez and Tommy Pham are also free agents. Neither is as good as Max Kepler and cost  more to sign. So, wrong year for free agent power hitting outfielders. If Kepler were a free agent he would be the second or third most in demand. The options aren't so great. Perhaps people would like to sign Celestino to replace Kepler. Is that where some folks are with Max?

[Major League Ready]

21 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

As much as we like like Kepler & Polanco, the time to trade them.is NOW!

A package deal for a controllable SP with upside.

Where we need to go free agency is for a RH power hitting left fielder. That has-been a gaping hole since Rosario left.

Wallner is Kepler redux in right field & Martin will have to step up & take CF.

The Twins have 3 needs: SP, bullpen  setup guy, power hitting LF.

Have no choice but to trust that Kiriloff,  Martin & Julien/Lee are healthy & ready.

Buxton & Miranda would be a bonus.

I agree the timing is right but this absolute expectation that they can be traded for front of the rotation established pitching is misguided.  Front of the rotation starters require a monster package.  If Kepler is such a reach, why would anyone take him in trade for the most coveted asset in baseball?  These guys are rarely traded and when they are it's generally a rebuilding team that would have no interest in Polanco or Kepler.  They want Lewis or Jenkins and probably both. 

Seattle is in a very rare position being a club that could contend and has enough pitching to let one of their young guys go but that's one team and what if they share the sentiment of many posters here that Kepler will return to a league average player?  What if they think Polanco is too much of an injury concern or another team offers they like better than Polanco.  I really hope they can put together a deal with Seattle but a whole lot of other teams are going to be competing for a SP if they trade one.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 11/25/2023 at 12:21 PM, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I agree that now is the time.  Wallner is ready for RF and we have others that can be plugged into LF.  Use him plus others to get that #2 pitcher that we need.  I doubt that he can reproduce what he did in the second half of last year so his value at the deadline will be less than what it is now (in part do to the loss of the QO for the acquiring team).  If he does not produce at that level, I doubt that the Twins would tender a QO meaning we lose him for nothing.

Imagine if they would have taken that advise for Miranda and AK last year? If you are giving Wallner RF, you sure as heck better have a good depth plan that doesn't include Gordon.