Two Paths for Emmanuel Rodriguez and the Twins

[saviking]

I think his high OBP, power and speed overshadow his strikeouts.

An out us an out however you look at it. With a strikeout at least you don't hit into double plays which are inning killers.

 

[Ruven]

23 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

the best outfield in Twins history

The competition:

1965: Allison/Hall/Oliva

1969: Allison/Tovar/Oliva

1987: Gladden/Puckett/Brunansky

1991: Gladden/Puckett/Mack

Lots of good pairs in other years, Bostock/Hisle in the late 70s, Hunter/Jones and Buxton/Kepler more recently, but it should be doable to rival the Twins’ best outfield. Looks like that would be the ‘65 trio

[Jeff K]

On 11/1/2023 at 11:21 AM, ashbury said:

Rodriguez is young, making any analysis of his minor league numbers shakier than most.  And his stat profile is an outlier, even on top of that, being founded on an ultra-high walk rate like just about no one else.  It would be exciting if his eye at the plate translated into laying off the bad pitches and clobbering the fat ones.  His home run numbers are indeed pretty good.  But that batting average of .240 and the 134 strikeouts this season paint a picture of maybe just taking advantage of pitchers who are never going to progress past high-A, but being abused by pitchers who have some command.

Still, he hasn't yet reached his 21st birthday, and for me that counts for a lot.  I tried finding a comp for his numbers at A-ball, not just among Twins either, and the best match I found was Edouard Julien.  We don't know for sure how the latter's career is going to unfold either.  But it's pretty encouraging.

I wish I knew more about his defense.  Being a centerfielder puts him in a different category than the corner OF bats we have collected.  But it only matters if he's going to stick there.

All in all I think the ceiling is too high on our ERod to trade him for anything but a sure thing on the pitching side.  He's probably not going to be what his video-game numbers in 2022 suggested, but his 2023 was a year of progress at the higher level of competition.  Still a long way to go, to achieve actual stardom in the majors.  Hey, he's 20 - or has that already been mentioned?

I definitely agree that the Twins should continue to bring him along.  Yes, the Twins need to bolster their starting pitching, but they have 4 solid starters so they ought not be desperate.  I think they should pursue Gray and Maeda unless the dollars get ridiculous.  Right now, I think Gray is rated around the 7th or 8th best free agent and Maeda around 25th.  I think they are gettable and we already know that they are a good fit for the team.

[Fatbat]

@Otaknam I think that they will let pitchers go 7 if they are capable of it. Many young arms are getting blown up so they try to be careful. I really liked how the Rangers handled their pitching staff in the postseason this year.  They rode the arms of the guys that were dialed in. Not necessarily the guys that are historically the best on their team through out the season. Evoldi was spectacular as he should be tho. 

[TopGunn#22]

As with any trade, what are we getting?  At this stage of his development, I would be very hesitant to trade E-Rod, but it would depend on what we're getting and how we can fit the acquired player into a current and future payroll.  The guy we would get in a trade for E-Rod would have to be an established, productive big league player.

For the sake of discussion, let's say that player is Brewers SP Corbin Burnes.  Now, the Brewers would never trade Burnes for E-Rod because they already have a plethora of young OF's who are just reaching their major league team.  But I'm using Burnes as an example.  Burnes is 29 years old (only one year older than Joe Ryan).  Matched with Lopez atop the Twins rotation they would be quite a combo.  Burnes would realistically be able to give the Twins 5 good years.  A 5-year $125-$150 million deal might keep him in the fold.

With Wallner, Rosario and Walker Jenkins in the pipeline (and in Wallner's case, already on the big league roster) you COULD make a deal like that to establish a top notch rotation with an exciting core of young, good hitters.  

But I'd want to see how E-Rod starts next season and how quickly he could earn a trip to St. Paul.  AA could be a challenge.  But if he continues to perform his value will only increase and the lineup that has him with only an aging Correa making a good chunk of money allowing the Twins to buy pitching if they need it.  It's a great problem to have.  

[TopGunn#22]

Ruvan:  I think 1965 and 1991 are the top two.  In 1969, Allison was just a shell of his glory days.  In 1987, Gladden was nothing special and Bruno was above average.

1991 had the great Kirby Puckett who had a good but not great year.  A very good Shane Mack and the aforementioned "nothing special" Dan Gladden.

1965 is probably the best of your list, but if you look a little deeper you'll find Allison was so/so, Hall hit .285 with 20 HR's (decent, but not great in a pitching dominated decade) and Oliva won the batting title.

One other consideration:  The 1977 Twins OF.

LF:  Larry Hisle .302 28 HR 119 rbi (led the A.L.) 21 SB's and a .533 slugging average  (Really Good)

CF  Lyman Bostock  .336 14 HR 90 rbi 16 SB's and a .508 slugging average.  (Really Good)

RF  "Disco Dan Ford"  .26711 HR 60 rbi but only a .467 S.A.  (Cleary not good enough to be on an All Time Best list).

So upon further review, I nominate the 7th place finishing 1964 Twins.

LF  Allison .287 32 HR 87 rbi 90 runs scored SA of .553 or Killebrew .270 49 HR 111 rbi 95 runs scored .548 SA (both played 1B and LF)

CF  Jimmie Hall  .282 25 HR 75 rbi 61 runs scored SA .480

RF  Tony Oliva  .323 32-HR 45-2B 9-3B  94 rbi  109 runs scored (led the A.L.) .557 SA  (and ROY).

On pure stats, that's probably the best.  Unbelievably, I think Killebrew played more innings in LF and Allison more at 1B that year.  What was Sam Mele thinking???

 

[Fatbat]

It would be awesome to go back and watch the 64-69 twins. So many good/great players. It was crazy cool to be 18 and graduating highschool and going to college in 87 when we won it all! Gladden was clutch!! I’m still salty about Bruno getting traded. 

[FlyingFinn]

3 hours ago, Otaknam said:

Besides, why would a number one free agent starter want to pitch for a manager who doesn’t trust him to pitch more than five innings? 

You ought to check out 2023. Rocco pitched the starters more innings per start than most teams in the league, within 3 total innings of being #1 in all of baseball.

[MN_ExPat]

On 11/1/2023 at 11:36 AM, Dman said:

I can't see the Twins moving on from\trading Rodriguez.  I agree the K rate is concerning, but the plate discipline is also elite so this isn't about a player who is undisciplined at the plate and just swinging at everything.  Maybe I have too much hope but he seems a bit like Soto to me.  He swings hard at everything and generally has good results.  I just don't think a guy who looks like he could be a perennial all-star is a player you want to trade.

I get there is risk there.  If the K rate doesn't improve and pitchers at higher levels can exploit his swing path and he can't make adjustments then maybe he ends up a good not great player.  He could end up a Gallo\Kepler type player if things don't go his way, but that feels like his floor to me.

Even though he was young for the level he was at the top of the Midwest league leader board at top 5 in OPS and that was after a brutal May (.572 OPS). In June his OPS was .943, July .840, August .941 and September 1.100. If not for the horrible May he might have been the league MVP over Rosario.  

He takes some really bad at bat's and I have been low on him for that, but I think he really is likely underrated.  He would be untradeable for me unless the Twins found themselves with a sweet deal for a really good pitcher with a good amount of control left.  I feel pretty confident Rodriguez will be a difference maker as a player but time will tell.

---

 

Here's his 2023 Batting Splits.  Think your pretty on point.

[MN_ExPat]

On 11/1/2023 at 11:47 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

Option #3: In ‘25, Rodriguez starts in RF alongside Jenkins in CF and Rosario in LF - the three rookies then play together for five years on basically league minimum/arb eligible salaries. The three of them form the best outfield in Twins history and the Twins use the extra cash (from them and Lewis and Lee) to have the best pitching staff in the majors.  Multiple World Series wins follow.

I vote for this option.

[MN_ExPat]

On 11/1/2023 at 12:56 PM, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

The robo-ump take is fantastic. I think the first iteration of robo-umps will be the challenge system, but I think there were about 15-25 Eddy Julien strikeouts that would have turned into walks if the umpire did not give the pitcher a free strike. 

Robo-umps also increase the chances of the pitcher throwing a cookie; as the zone tightens a little, there will be an increase in pitchers "just trying to throw one over," which will turn into lots of balls in the seats. As it relates to Twins pitching, I think that we are well-suited for robo-umpiring, Lopez, Ryan, and Ober all live in the strike zone and trust their elite stuff- where teams like the Astros and Brewers are going to struggle once they're forced to start throwing balls over the plate.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 11/1/2023 at 1:18 PM, chpettit19 said:

. Feels like he could be Gallo or Soto (as someone else pointed out).

Just to point out Soto played 116 games in the Majors his age 19 season with an OPS of .923. So I see any comparison with him as a joke, Gallo on the other hand played 36 games in his age 21 season and 17 in his age 22 season, so he seems a little more legit. (even though Gallo's numbers were about the same except up a level in age 20 season)

I am a huge fan of Erod and think he could be great and I am not really interested in trading him. I will say to those that want to wait and see to trade him, if he isn't great next year he won't have much trade value left and if he is great why trade him?

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Just to point out Soto played 116 games in the Majors his age 19 season with an OPS of .923. So I see any comparison with him as a joke, Gallo on the other hand played 36 games in his age 21 season and 17 in his age 22 season, so he seems a little more legit. (even though Gallo's numbers were about the same except up a level in age 20 season)

I am a huge fan of Erod and think he could be great and I am not really interested in trading him. I will say to those that want to wait and see to trade him, if he isn't great next year he won't have much trade value left and if he is great why trade him?

I don't understand the point of pointing out those ages. We're talking about types of players. And we're not talking about an out of nowhere 28 year old, he'll be 21 next year and has every opportunity to debut as a 21 year old. That's plenty early enough to be a star type player. "Well Soto was up at 19" doesn't carry any weight to me in this conversation. He exhibits those types of talents, and could be an elite hitter if it all comes together. It coming together at 21 or 22 instead of 19 isn't a big deal at all. Soto and Gallo were just examples of the different types of players that can come out of extreme walks with power profiles.

I do agree with the idea that waiting for another year to make a decision is actually making the decision now. Either his value will skyrocket and you wouldn't be trading him, or it goes down and you've lost your window. Same argument gets made about extending pre-arb players. People want to wait to see if they establish themselves or not, but then you've lost your ability to get them for cheaper which is the entire point of doing the extension earlier. I wouldn't be shopping ERod, but if the right deal came along I'd move him.

[TwinsDr2021]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't understand the point of pointing out those ages. We're talking about types of players. And we're not talking about an out of nowhere 28 year old, he'll be 21 next year and has every opportunity to debut as a 21 year old. That's plenty early enough to be a star type player. "Well Soto was up at 19" doesn't carry any weight to me in this conversation. He exhibits those types of talents, and could be an elite hitter if it all comes together. It coming together at 21 or 22 instead of 19 isn't a big deal at all. Soto and Gallo were just examples of the different types of players that can come out of extreme walks with power profiles.

I do agree with the idea that waiting for another year to make a decision is actually making the decision now. Either his value will skyrocket and you wouldn't be trading him, or it goes down and you've lost your window. Same argument gets made about extending pre-arb players. People want to wait to see if they establish themselves or not, but then you've lost your ability to get them for cheaper which is the entire point of doing the extension earlier. I wouldn't be shopping ERod, but if the right deal came along I'd move him.

The point is when people throw around comparisons to super star players when the one player just played A+ and the other guy he is being compared to at the same age was having his second straight top 10 MVP isn't a fair comparison to either player. A better comparison maybe be Mark Vientos

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The point is when people throw around comparisons to super star players when the one player just played A+ and the other guy he is being compared to at the same age was having his second straight top 10 MVP isn't a fair comparison to either player. A better comparison maybe be Mark Vientos

Do you think the average fan knows who Mark Vientos is? How is that a useful comparison when nobody knows who he is? You appear to be taking comparisons far too literally. If I say someone is a Joey Gallo type hitter the idea isn't that you go look up his stats and expect him to produce those exact stats at those exact ages. The idea is that you understand he's a 3 true outcome slugger who's going to walk a bunch, K a bunch, and hit HRs a bunch. If I say someone is a Juan Soto type hitter the idea isn't that you go look up his stats and expect him to produce those exact stats at those exact ages. The idea is that you understand he's got an incredibly high walk rate, with incredibly low chase rates, and is a great all around hitter. When you say someone is a Mark Vientos hitter 99% of baseball fans take absolutely nothing away from it because they've never even heard of him.

Not a place for us to get into this debate so I'll leave it at that. I'm sorry I used well known players as comps.

[Doctor Wu]

On 11/1/2023 at 11:39 PM, Fatbat said:

There is room on the roster in 2025 for all the youngsters.

Yes, that will be a problem. Okay, maybe a good problem to have, but something the Twins will need to deal with. At some point in the very near future some hard decisions will have to be made about all the MLB-ready players who are in the system, and which ones we want to keep at which positions. But at least we will have some good choices.

[TwinsDr2021]

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Do you think the average fan knows who Mark Vientos is? How is that a useful comparison when nobody knows who he is? You appear to be taking comparisons far too literally. If I say someone is a Joey Gallo type hitter the idea isn't that you go look up his stats and expect him to produce those exact stats at those exact ages. The idea is that you understand he's a 3 true outcome slugger who's going to walk a bunch, K a bunch, and hit HRs a bunch. If I say someone is a Juan Soto type hitter the idea isn't that you go look up his stats and expect him to produce those exact stats at those exact ages. The idea is that you understand he's got an incredibly high walk rate, with incredibly low chase rates, and is a great all around hitter. When you say someone is a Mark Vientos hitter 99% of baseball fans take absolutely nothing away from it because they've never even heard of him.

Not a place for us to get into this debate so I'll leave it at that. I'm sorry I used well known players as comps.

That is exactly my point. Juan Soto was .362 hitter in the minors and didn't strikeout and isn't much of a threat on the bases. ERod has strike out 242 times in 183 games. Soto K'd 66 times in 122 minor league games and 643 in 901 games in the majors. 

When we start comparing every Twins minor player to HOF type talent how can they be anything be let downs? (I mean look how people talk about Buxton, Sano, and others) Why not compare him to Sano, is that a good one? Big power, high strikeouts, good walks and a top prospect?

Vientos while not a threat on the bases is a legit comparison, he made the a majors at age 22, highish strike out guy, mid BA, and good power. That is who we should be expecting him to be and hopefully exceeds those expectations.

[tony&rodney]

The one thing I would add which makes me think Emmanuel Rodriguez can be a star is that he has a lightning quick bat. Falvey and the boys get paid megabucks to make the decisions.

[FlyingFinn]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

When we start comparing every Twins minor player to HOF type talent how can they be anything be let downs?

Maybe people are just trying to lower expectations so everyone is happy when he does well, right?................ Yea, I didn't think so either.

[TwinsDr2021]

16 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Maybe people are just trying to lower expectations so everyone is happy when he does well, right?................ Yea, I didn't think so either.

no idea what you are saying. I really, really like ERod and think he has a chance to be something special (I was one of the people saying he should have been moved up to AA last year) But when you start making comparisons to perennial all stars/MVP type players the average fan isn't thinking he could be similar type of of hitter, you are saying he is likely or very likely a perennial all star type player in the making, and that might make sense if they were the same type of hitter at the same ages. But Erod and Soto weren't, Soto was finishing second in the rookie of year in his age 19 season and ERod was playing 47 (Amazing) games in A ball.

[JesusisLord7]

The only player I'd like to trade is Buxton. I'd trade him and his personal nurse to anyone who believes they could keep him on the field.