Players the Twins Should Sell High On

[DJL44]

20 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Joe Ryan is very much not a sell-high guy.

He is a "sell-high" guy. He's an established mid-level starting pitcher now but he's going to get more expensive through arbitration. He's never going to have more surplus value than he does right now.

[jorgenswest]

I am not trading Jeffers. 

I also don’t expect his numbers will be as strong next year. His slash stats were much higher than the expected batting average and slugging average based on contact from statcast. I think those are a better indicator of future performance. He may actually take a step forward next year but not get quite the same results. In that sense it might be a sell high.

[KirbyDome89]

On 10/20/2023 at 2:15 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I agree.... My point is more that people underestimate how nearly impossible it would be to replace his productivity. I have no doubt he's top ten.... That's not a place to decrease talent.

Well, if he's ripe for regression his production this season isn't really what you're replacing, so I can see the argument for moving him if some other team is convinced 2023 is repeatable. Idk, I wouldn't say I'm strongly opposed to moving a part time player, and decreasing offensive output at a position that demands it the least if the Twins could solidify CF. 

[Riverbrian]

On 10/19/2023 at 1:09 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Zero chance I trade Jeffers. If he catches 100 games he's a top 5 catcher in MLB last year. Zero chance you get back a player that is that much better than who he'd replace (like, who are you getting back that is 2-4 wins better than who he replaces, and why is that team trading that star?)?

Zero. Nada. Nil. No chance I deal Jeffers. 

You're literally giving up 2-4 wins with any of those replacements you mention, how is the team better by getting below replacement level at catcher? 

Castro? I'm not sure you get much value back for a utility guy. I'm not dealing him for a random RP, for example. 

I have been hoping for the development of catching in our organization for long time and I'll continue to hope for it forever. 

When the Twins signed Vazquez last year... I was worried that his addition to the club was going to be a problem with the development of Jeffers. Thankfully Jeffers had a great year and his value has gone up accordingly. 

I would love to see Jeffers in a Twins uniform next year. However... We can't keep everyone and acquire everyone. Got to give to get and Jeffers perhaps brings back the highest return. Certainly the highest return of the players listed in the original post starting this discussion. 

I know Baseball Trade Values isn't the be all end all in trade values but the website isn't miles off. Jeffers is currently listed as our 6th most valuable trade piece. Lopez, Lee, Lewis, Ryan and Julien are the 5 in front of him and I don't want to trade any of those 5. We could use a real good starting pitcher and we could use an impact bat. 

I never expect free agency to be the answer to either of those areas especially with media revenue in high doubt. Free agency doesn't excite me if Mid-Range is what we do in it because that isn't going to move our needle. 

Jeffers could help solve either of those two areas and help bring back impact.  

Last year Vazquez had 327 AB's and Jeffers had 286. The proportion may change in 2024 but those two will divide up AB's again in 2024. If Vazquez gets hurt... whoever replaces him is going take AB's from Jeffers. Jeffers may top out at 350 AB's even with another great year. You have to consider that we could replace those 350 AB's with a 500 AB guy for Jeffers or Jeffers plus and with Jeffers in the package... that plus doesn't have to be a Lee or Rodriquez sized prospect.  

Yes... We take a hit at the catching position but an (insert name here) defense first catcher paired with Vazquez won't be the end of the world because a lot of teams think defense first at that position. A 500 AB impact outfielder or suitable Gray replacement will give us more bang than the catching buck can provide. Catchers are always over pays so I'm OK if someone overpays for it.   

I'd love to see Jeffers back but I'd also love to see if Jeffers brings back impact and maybe it'll open some space for the next catcher in the pipeline to develop into a trade high candidate and bring even more in return.

I'm hoping it's a fun off-season. Jeffers is gonna remain at the top of my trade high list.    

[dex8425]

I probably wouldn't trade Jeffers, but I would trade Julien. Seattle seems like a match and they have young pitching....

[chpettit19]

A few of you have made very good points on Jeffers, and I think I've changed and would be on board moving him, assuming the return is worth it. If you can get an impact bat or top end starter for Jeffers+ I'd do it. Especially if that bat is a CFer. Jeffers alone won't get it done, but Jeffers plus a mid-level prospect or 2 may be enough to make something happen.

[Mike Sixel]

And then stink at catcher. I don't get it. What young impact CF is coming in trade for a veteran catcher?

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Yes... We take a hit at the catching position but an (insert name here) defense first catcher paired with Vazquez won't be the end of the world because a lot of teams think defense first at that position. A 500 AB impact outfielder or suitable Gray replacement will give us more bang than the catching buck can provide. Catchers are always over pays so I'm OK if someone overpays for it.   

I'd love to see Jeffers back but I'd also love to see if Jeffers brings back impact and maybe it'll open some space for the next catcher in the pipeline to develop into a trade high candidate and bring even more in return.

I'm hoping it's a fun off-season. Jeffers is gonna remain at the top of my trade high list.    

You had me until this part. I don't want to pair a defensive first catcher with another defensive first catcher. I don't want to intentionally make a black hole in the lineup. I'd move Jeffers, but ONLY if the team can manage to get another offensively positive catcher to replace him. Which would be tough. Not impossible, but not a guarantee.

Edit with further research: There were ten catchers who had 300 PA and had an OPS +.750 last year. Eight of them played for the 12 playoff teams. I think having an offensively capable catcher is more important that it would seem. I don't think good teams intentionally give away outs in the lineup.

So, you're probably not getting one of those guys, you'd likely have to get a guy who's a very good bet to rebound (Kirk?) or stick Garver behind the plate. Neither option sounds great. Barring something uber creative, I'm probably back to hanging on to Jeffers.

Probably better off waiting to see if Camargo and/or Cossetti force their way onto the roster midseason and re-evaluate then.

[Cap'n Piranha]

My big take for the offseason is that Falvine will acquire an arm that slots behind Lopez and ahead of Ryan in our rotation; Seattle is an obvious candidate with a deep roster of starters (Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, Miller, Hancock, and Robbie Ray theoretically returning at some point in 2024), but terrible production at 2B (Seattle 2B tied for 24th in the league with a 75 wRC+, and an OPS barely over .600).

That said, it would be tough to pry away Kirby or Gilbert (the two guys you'd want), even if you offered Julien or Lee; you might have to give up both.  Alternatively, Hancock might be more attainable, and could be seen as a high upside bet.

[cmoss84]

I might get booed here...How about Mr. Correa? He played great in playoffs but is about to decline pretty fast and steadily...

Arizona? Boston? Either LA team? Miami? SF? St. Louis? 

[dex8425]

17 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

I might get booed here...How about Mr. Correa? He played great in playoffs but is about to decline pretty fast and steadily...

Arizona? Boston? Either LA team? Miami? SF? St. Louis? 

Correa will be here for the duration of his 200m deal. Full no trade clause. Disagree with the notion that he is about to decline. He's not even 30. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

On 10/19/2023 at 10:51 AM, Riverbrian said:

This was a well researched post.

Anybody on the team is tradable. The Twins have a lot of possibilities in the trade market.

However... in the context of sell high. 

The first guy on my list would be Jeffers. Not that I don't want him on the Twins... I think he was fantastic for us last year and I think he will be fantastic next year. However, in the context of sell high. Catchers are always an over pay and catchers require rest so they play less. 

For example... According to baseballtradevalues. 

Ryan Jeffers to the Marlins could bring back a couple of Minnesota Born players in Max Meyer and AJ Puk. Not sure that the Marlins would do that but the trade would be fair value. I'd make that deal on the Twins behalf. 

Jeffers to the Rays could bring back Siri and Springs? Fair value according to BTV. Springs is coming off TJ but is suppose to be back mid 2024. He was a fantastic SP prior to the injury. Siri a great defensive CF with power and speed. I don't make this trade because Siri strikes out way too much making him the wrong type of player for us to target but he does check the defense, power and speed boxes.   

You could trade Jeffers straight up to the Red Sox for Jarren Duran according to BTV. Duran can play CF with tons of speed and 15 home run potential that could increase to 20 plus. I'd make this trade.  

Yes I know... We would need a catcher to replace Jeffers and that hole left behind is a consideration but what you get back in return would make the overall team better. 

With all that said. I will be more than happy to see Jeffers wearing #27 for my ball club next year.

Just saying... if you did. Jeffers could be justified under the sell high consideration. 

 

 

I dislike this tremendously, but you're absolutely right!

 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

You had me until this part. I don't want to pair a defensive first catcher with another defensive first catcher. I don't want to intentionally make a black hole in the lineup. I'd move Jeffers, but ONLY if the team can manage to get another offensively positive catcher to replace him. Which would be tough. Not impossible, but not a guarantee.

Edit with further research: There were ten catchers who had 300 PA and had an OPS +.750 last year. Eight of them played for the 12 playoff teams. I think having an offensively capable catcher is more important that it would seem. I don't think good teams intentionally give away outs in the lineup.

So, you're probably not getting one of those guys, you'd likely have to get a guy who's a very good bet to rebound (Kirk?) or stick Garver behind the plate. Neither option sounds great. Baring something uber creative, I'm probably back to hanging on to Jeffers.

Probably better off waiting to see if Camargo and/or Cossetti force their way onto the roster midseason and re-evaluate then.

Ten Catchers out of 60 jobs. 1 out of 6... Hence Catchers being over valued due to scarcity. 

I won't argue the value of offensive hitting catchers... I want my catchers to hit just like everyone.

However, if trading Jeffers brings back a Gray type replacement on the mound or a Cedric Mullins type CF (Just pulling a name out of thin air... no need to debate the specific name) who gets you 600 AB's. The Jeffers 300 AB's is half the output... 300 AB's can't produce the value 600 AB's will. You just bat the catcher position 9th like the Astros do with Maldonado. 

Yeah... the 9th spot struggles a little but you have added Mullins to Julien, Polanco, Lewis and Correa ETC.  

Who knows maybe Camargo turns into a nice major league hitting catcher. We need a difference making full time bat... Jeffers could be one way to get one. 

I have no argument with your suggestion of waiting to see what Camargo can do. That's sensible... My only counter is that I'd like to see a difference maker added to the team before opening day and that requires risk.   

Disclaimer: I'm not saying that Jeffers needs to be traded... I'm just saying that I'm open to the idea because the potential return is greater than most other options. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

On 10/19/2023 at 5:49 PM, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Joe Ryan is very much not a sell-high guy. People forget that his ERA was around 2.80 before his groin injury, and if he had stayed on that pace, he probably would have had a great shot at winning the Cy Young this year. I remember his value being over $100M before his injury and it does not make sense for the Twins to sell low on a controllable starter.

Also, Preller only knows how to buy, and I don't anticipate that he'll let Soto go. I also think that the Brewers are unlikely to trade Burnes with multiple controllable players/prospects. If the Twins have an extension in place for Burnes, that likely ups his value to around $50M or $60M, similar to how the Mariners' trade for Luis Castillo involved them giving up way more than BTV said they should. Seems like a big risk to try and outbid the Dodgers, Mets, Giants, Yankees, etc. for Burnes' services.

This isn't a reaction to your post.  It's a reminder.  You have now actually seen a Twins playoff win.  You've got some business to take care of.  Name change time!  Ha! Ha!

Enjoyed the original post!

[Riverbrian]

39 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

I might get booed here...How about Mr. Correa? He played great in playoffs but is about to decline pretty fast and steadily...

Arizona? Boston? Either LA team? Miami? SF? St. Louis? 

It would require the eating of significant dollars to acquire anyone of value. 

The very nature of free agency is paying more for a player than the other 29 teams would pay. So... once a free agent is signed. They typically immediately become higher priced than the other 29 teams would pay so... now negative value. 

 

[cmoss84]

53 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

Correa will be here for the duration of his 200m deal. Full no trade clause. Disagree with the notion that he is about to decline. He's not even 30. 

Completely my opinion that he will decline in a year or two. Other teams might agree with you...which is the point of this thread...selling at maximum value before he does start to decline. No trade clauses can/have been waived. 

[cmoss84]

20 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

It would require the eating of significant dollars to acquire anyone of value. 

The very nature of free agency is paying more for a player than the other 29 teams would pay. So... once a free agent is signed. They typically immediately become higher priced than the other 29 teams would pay so... now negative value. 

 

Concur for most of this. However, it only takes 1 (probably larger market) team to 

a) miss out on FA target(s)

b) get desperate to make playoffs (see Angels/Red Sox)

c)  talk Carlos into wanting a change of scenery 

We might not get great value, but we could ultimately get out of an expensive contract before he declines. Again...in MY opinion, he will be declining sooner rather than later.  

[nicksaviking]

13 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Concur for most of this. However, it only takes 1 (probably larger market) team to 

a) miss out on FA target(s)

b) get desperate to make playoffs (see Angels/Red Sox)

c)  talk Carlos into wanting a change of scenery 

We might not get great value, but we could ultimately get out of an expensive contract before he declines. Again...in MY opinion, he will be declining sooner rather than later.  

You're also missing:

d) have the payroll to fit him in

e) the Twins would have to not want him

f) the Twins would be willing to upset fans and players to move him

That's quite the parlay you're chasing there.

[Cap'n Piranha]

25 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Concur for most of this. However, it only takes 1 (probably larger market) team to 

a) miss out on FA target(s)

b) get desperate to make playoffs (see Angels/Red Sox)

c)  talk Carlos into wanting a change of scenery 

We might not get great value, but we could ultimately get out of an expensive contract before he declines. Again...in MY opinion, he will be declining sooner rather than later.  

Fairly certain point c) is a textbook example of tampering, and would result in massive fines and penalties, along with surefire league nixing of any trade.

[cmoss84]

35 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

You're also missing:

d) have the payroll to fit him in

e) the Twins would have to not want him

f) the Twins would be willing to upset fans and players to move him

That's quite the parlay you're chasing there.

d) larger market teams would not have issues

e) It is a business

f) Lee coming up pretty quick...fans will soon think, "Carlos was cool...but this Lee guy is the coolist!" (With Adam Sandler voice)

[cmoss84]

28 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Fairly certain point c) is a textbook example of tampering, and would result in massive fines and penalties, along with surefire league nixing of any trade.

Fairly certain in every sport everyone has conversations with everyone and it is difficult to get caught tampering. 

[cmoss84]

I'm not as big of fan as Carlos as many of you (which is weird because I loved him when he was coming up). All good. I hope he does well for as long as he is a Twin. 

[Mike Sixel]

Unless they are 100% convinced Buxton can't play, they aren't dealing Jeffers for a CF.....

who has an EXTRA number 1/2 starting pitcher, and needs a catcher and is close to the playoffs, and is willing deal a great SP? 

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, cmoss84 said:

d) larger market teams would not have issues

e) It is a business

f) Lee coming up pretty quick...fans will soon think, "Carlos was cool...but this Lee guy is the coolist!" (With Adam Sandler voice)

You are correct that it just takes one team. However, that one team would have to have the opposite spidey sense that you have. 

You sense decline... the professional baseball office would have to sense the opposite to consider the contract.   

Offensively, his year this year would be termed a decline from his previous levels. You are asking a lot of that one team.

Besides... I like the idea of Correa, Lewis, Julien and Lee on the same roster. 

[cmoss84]

4 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

You are correct that it just takes one team. However, that one team would have to have the opposite spidey sense that you have. 

You sense decline... the professional baseball office would have to sense the opposite to consider the contract.   

Offensively, his year this year would be termed a decline from his previous levels. You are asking a lot of that one team.

Besides... I like the idea of Correa, Lewis, Julien and Lee on the same roster. 

Fair points...but some teams might see his poor offensive season due to his plantar fasctisissitis, and bet on him bouncing back. I see him declining in a year even without injury. Good points though. 

[Riverbrian]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Unless they are 100% convinced Buxton can't play, they aren't dealing Jeffers for a CF.....

who has an EXTRA number 1/2 starting pitcher, and needs a catcher and is close to the playoffs, and is willing deal a great SP? 

If Buxton can play CF... Big If... buf if... Then we would have two CF'ers in our OF.

An extra CF can play LF or RF if Buxton is good to go next year. Two CF'ers in the same OF... Three is off the charts good.  

Considering the health history of Byron Buxton. The front office better be looking for a CF and if they are looking they better be looking top shelf.

If they are not looking for top shelf. Just hand the job to Castro and Gordon.   

Who has an extra number 1/2 starting pitcher? The Marlins did last year.

For this off-season... who has one? I don't know but whoever does... they will be expensive to acquire so... the conversation probably starts at Jeffers plus others.  

[Riverbrian]

Just now, cmoss84 said:

Fair points...but some teams might see his poor offensive season due to his plantar fasctisissitis, and bet on him bouncing back. I see him declining in a year even without injury. Good points though. 

I've always thought decline would come toward the end of the contract.

Next year... I'm thinking his offense has nowhere to go but up and I'm hoping to see that. 

If he has a worse offensive year next year than he had this year. That contract would become an anchor dropped off a paper boat. 

200 million for 6 years of a no hit great defensive SS is not what what they paid for.          

 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

If Buxton can play CF... Big If... buf if... Then we would have two CF'ers in our OF.

An extra CF can play LF or RF if Buxton is good to go next year. Two CF'ers in the same OF... Three is off the charts good.  

Considering the health history of Byron Buxton. The front office better be looking for a CF and if they are looking they better be looking top shelf.

If they are not looking for top shelf. Just hand the job to Castro and Gordon.   

Who has an extra number 1/2 starting pitcher? The Marlins did last year.

For this off-season... who has one? I don't know but whoever does... they will be expensive to acquire so... the conversation probably starts at Jeffers plus others.  

Hey, we agree they should go get a CF. We disagree making C awful is the solution.

[Riverbrian]

12 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Hey, we agree they should go get a CF. We disagree making C awful is the solution.

I'm not itching to trade Jeffers but this topic is about players the Twins should "Sell High". If you want a decent CF... You got to deal someone. We are not going to be able to package Larnach or Castro to get it done. 

So... who do you deal?  

There are perhaps 8 players in the Twins organization that are "Sell High" candidates that could also return a significant talent if dealt. Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Lewis, Julien, Lee and Jeffers.

I'd rather keep the other 7.   

We paid Christian Vazquez 10 Million last year and he is due 10 million next year and the year after that. He's not going anywhere for two more years. By the time his contract expires after the 2025 season concludes. Jeffers will have one year of control left. 2026 will be his third arb year so he will be paid more than he ever has in his career with his control exhausted. His value plummets at that point.

In the meantime... Vazquez will be doing 50% of the crouching... maybe 40% if the Twins make Jeffers Numero Uno. Vazquez is going nowhere and he is paid 10 million each year.  

BTW... Jair Camargo... I have no idea who he is... He's 23 years old and his OPS was .826 in AAA. Jeffers was a 22 year old in Pensacola with an .857 OPS. In other words... Camargo just might not be awful. He could spend a couple of years facing major league hitters where he could 50% with Vazquez until his contract runs out... leaving Camargo in charge with 4 years left. 

I'm laying it out the best I can. What I'm saying isn't crazy.   

 

 

[DJL44]

19 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

My big take for the offseason is that Falvine will acquire an arm that slots behind Lopez and ahead of Ryan in our rotation; Seattle is an obvious candidate with a deep roster of starters (Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, Miller, Hancock, and Robbie Ray theoretically returning at some point in 2024), but terrible production at 2B (Seattle 2B tied for 24th in the league with a 75 wRC+, and an OPS barely over .600).

That said, it would be tough to pry away Kirby or Gilbert (the two guys you'd want), even if you offered Julien or Lee; you might have to give up both.  Alternatively, Hancock might be more attainable, and could be seen as a high upside bet.

Polanco for Ray? He wouldn't be available until June of 2024 but the Twins could manage in the meantime without him. That's one way to acquire a top of the rotation lefty. Deal one guy who costs retail price and likely to be out half the season injured for another.