Royce Lewis extension

[Fat Calvin]

No, No, No, No, No!!!!!  We have one 100 million dollar basket case.  We don't need another. 

He's got to show us that he can stay healthy for an entire year or two before we start talking extension!!!

[Fat Calvin]

On 10/5/2023 at 2:19 AM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I understand the angst on the Buxton contract but let's not forget it's "only" $14.2875m a year.  That's not a huge amount of money for player of his caliber even with the injury risk. I actually think that contract is a good deal for both sides with a fairly reasonable guarantee if for a guy of his talent level, with him having the chance to make more if you really performs. That kind of contract is basically number 3 or 4 starter money and he is potentially much more than that. I think it was a good risk at the time and is a good risk now, even if he winds up having to move to LF or 1B to protect his legs, or is really a full-time DH. 

What caliber are you talking about?  He's shooting blanks.  Buxton has given us one disappointing season after another.  He's always hurt.  Always!!! 

[JDBrocks]

7 minutes ago, Fat Calvin said:

We have one 100 million dollar basket case. 

Basket case? I don't think that phrase means what you think it means.

[Trov]

15 hours ago, GusGus11 said:

Umm exactly, which is why you lock up Lewis now.

Wait 5 years when hes 29 and you are paying him into his mid 30s and at a higher rate

The Twins would have high incentive to buy out FA years, Lewis does not.  Lewis believes in himself, and if he wants to max his money, he will not want to sign an extension buying out FA years unless it is at a value he is hoping to demand, that will be around like 30 mil or more.  Does the team want to commit to that now, I doubt it. If I am advising Lewis, I tell him to play out his years and hope to max arb years then get a big deal when he is FA because it will be his only one.  If the team offers enough then sure, but you normally only do these early deals in a way to get team friendly values later in contract. 

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, Trov said:

The Twins would have high incentive to buy out FA years, Lewis does not.  Lewis believes in himself, and if he wants to max his money, he will not want to sign an extension buying out FA years unless it is at a value he is hoping to demand, that will be around like 30 mil or more.  Does the team want to commit to that now, I doubt it. If I am advising Lewis, I tell him to play out his years and hope to max arb years then get a big deal when he is FA because it will be his only one.  If the team offers enough then sure, but you normally only do these early deals in a way to get team friendly values later in contract. 

The team friendly values later in the contract are counterbalanced by the player friendly values at the front end. Julio Rodriguez would be making about 750k this year and a couple mil next year. Instead he's making 10 mil this year and 18 mil next year. That's 25+ million in extra cash in his pocket in the first 2 years of the deal alone. If you're a guy with 2 ACL surgeries before you're 24 there's certainly a little incentive to lock up $100+ million.

Even if Lewis signs on into his early 30s he's still looking at being able to sign a massive deal. Xander Bogarts and Manny Machado just signed 11 year deals at the age of 30. If Lewis signs until he's 32 for 150 mil now he will still be able to sign for 300+ mil (contracts aren't going to go down) after this deal if he performs how we all hope and expect. There's certainly some motivation to lock in 9 figures at the age of 24 and guarantee yourself generational wealth while still being able to hit the absolute jackpot on your next deal.

Ohtani just set the record for highest arbitration award ever at 30 mil. Mookie Betts got 27 mil. Juan Soto agreed to a 23 mil deal. Lewis is set to make 750ish thousand a year on average the next 2 years. If he keeps up his performance his arb years are probably in the 8, 15, 25 range per year. That totals about 50 mil. Let's say Boras projects free agent contracts to be at about 40 mil per year for Lewis types when he hits free agency. Let's say the Twins want to buy out 2 free agent years. So 80 mil total possible contract amount if everything goes perfectly for Lewis over the next 5 years. For those 7 years he's looking at 130 mil in earnings if he maintains his current production. That's just over 14.25 mil a year for him over those 7 years. You don't think there'd be any incentive on his side to lock in $130,000,000 after having seen himself play a grand total of 72 major league games at age 24? There's a lot of incentive for him to sign. If they drop 7 or 8 years at 15 to 18 mil per year in front of him he'd have to be very tempted to sign that. And 15 to 18 mil is not a huge number for the Twins to spend as long as he's reasonably healthy for those 7 or 8 years. It's something both sides should definitely be considering.

[nicksaviking]

3 hours ago, Fat Calvin said:

No, No, No, No, No!!!!!  We have one 100 million dollar basket case.  We don't need another. 

He's got to show us that he can stay healthy for an entire year or two before we start talking extension!!!

Then you'll never be able to extend him. If the Twins, or anybody really, bases life decisions off of one example expecting that to be the norm, they're missing out on 99% of what the world has to offer.

And, a 6 year 100M contract is peanuts in today's game. That's like 1/3 of all the players that play for the California teams.

[Riverbrian]

Health is the only concern... Normally I'd say let's give it some time before making this type of extension decision.  

This isn't normal. The guy is a superstar so I'd say go for it but... that health thing is lingering.  

I'll trust the front office to make the right move here. 

 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Health is the only concern... Normally I'd say let's give it some time before making this type of extension decision.  

This isn't normal. The guy is a superstar so I'd say go for it but... that health thing is lingering.  

I'll trust the front office to make the right move here. 

 

Having another 1/1 shortstop type who struggled with injuries early but has mostly figured out how to stay on the field can’t hurt.  Maybe that’s for that other thread though. 

[Fat Calvin]

14 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Then you'll never be able to extend him. If the Twins, or anybody really, bases life decisions off of one example expecting that to be the norm, they're missing out on 99% of what the world has to offer.

And, a 6 year 100M contract is peanuts in today's game. That's like 1/3 of all the players that play for the California teams.

The norm?  I don't figure anything to be the norm.  But to take a guy who's played a whopping 70 MLB games in his entire career, and has had multiple hamstring pulls, not to mention two major ACL reconstructive surgeries, and then to give him a multi year, multi million dollar contract is completely insane.  To take that kind of gamble, you've got to be a fool or your playing with someone else's money.  I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on the former. 

[Fat Calvin]

17 hours ago, JDBrocks said:

Basket case? I don't think that phrase means what you think it means.

I think that you think what I think is not what I think. 

[JDBrocks]

5 hours ago, Fat Calvin said:

I think that you think what I think is not what I think. 

Got it. So you confidently used the phrase incorrectly. Nice.

[Hashim]

On 10/4/2023 at 10:01 AM, CoasterProductions said:

Royce Lewis deserves an extension what are some of your proposals? Here is mine 8 years $96,000,000 with incentives.

The only concern is risk of major injury.   

[terrydactyls]

On 10/4/2023 at 11:35 AM, Vanimal46 said:

The major difference between Lewis and your two examples (Acuna/Albies) is the latter were international FA signings. Albies got $350k in 2013, Acuna got $100k in 2014.

Lewis received a $6.75 million signing bonus as the #1 overall pick in the draft. 

So what?  The question isn't about what they were signed for originally but rather, what sort of extension can be worked out now.

[terrydactyls]

"Injury prone" has been used in this thread several times.  I disagree.  Lewis' first ACL injury was when he slipped on an icy sidewalk (or step - I don't remember which) in Houston.  I lived in Texas for more than 20 years and I've seen many curious Texans land on their ass because they wanted to experience what walking on ice is like.  That doesn't make them "injury prone".  That makes them a typical home-grown Texan.  Many think cowboys boots are good for icy conditions because they keep snow off your feet.  As a typical home-grown Minnesotan wearing his first pair of genuine adult cowboy boots in a Minnesota winter, I learned my lesson by landing on my ass also.  His second ACL occurred when he landed awkwardly after jumping for a ball.  The current hamstring problem?  Which of us hasn't aggravate a hamstring before their 25th birthday?

As has been pointed out by several people, a contract signed in 2023 is going to look like a bargain in 2030.  Ten years for $175M seems like a good price.  A good 3B in 2030 getting "only" $17.5M is a bargain.

[darin617]

On 10/4/2023 at 10:01 AM, CoasterProductions said:

Royce Lewis deserves an extension what are some of your proposals? Here is mine 8 years $96,000,000 with incentives.

Zero chance he would sign that. His agent would laugh in the Twins face. 

[Vanimal46]

9 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

So what?  The question isn't about what they were signed for originally but rather, what sort of extension can be worked out now.

Acuna and Albies were motivated to take the deals they were offered because they have not made any money up until that point. That’s “so what”

[arby58]

On 10/4/2023 at 10:13 AM, weneedneshek said:

Yes but the intent is to lock up some free agency years at a steep discount by overpaying during pre-arb/arb. Similar to what the Braves have done with Acuna and Albies to great success

For his considerable talents, Lewis has played a grand total 70 MLB games over two years. He'll be 25 next year, meaning they have him locked up until age 30. There were lots of concerns expressed that Correa, at 29 was entering into decline this year - and his injury issues at the same age were certainly no worse than Lewis.

Let's see him make it through at least one full season (remember that Buxton guy?) before talking long range extensions.

[Kenny Powers]

Does the "lock them up early at a discount" really work?  I'm getting flash backs to guys who wanted to renegotiate because their current contract was no longer at market value.  I don't think there are really any true discounts anymore.  People are generally paid what they are worth once their rookie deals are over.

Take full advantage of our years of cost control.  If he stays healthy and lives up to the hype - he will be paid accordingly regardless (IMO).

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

Does the "lock them up early at a discount" really work?  I'm getting flash backs to guys who wanted to renegotiate because their current contract was no longer at market value.  I don't think there are really any true discounts anymore.  People are generally paid what they are worth once their rookie deals are over.

Take full advantage of our years of cost control.  If he stays healthy and lives up to the hype - he will be paid accordingly regardless (IMO).

Do you have some baseball examples of "guys who wanted to renegotiate?" I can't think of many baseball players who renegotiated in the middle of their deals, unless they had an opt out. That's not really a baseball thing.

The concern is that he'll be paid accordingly by someone else if he stays healthy and lives up to the hype. Twins not exactly known for paying top dollar for stars.

[Kenny Powers]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Do you have some baseball examples of "guys who wanted to renegotiate?" I can't think of many baseball players who renegotiated in the middle of their deals, unless they had an opt out. That's not really a baseball thing.

The concern is that he'll be paid accordingly by someone else if he stays healthy and lives up to the hype. Twins not exactly known for paying top dollar for stars.

Thinking about this more, I believe you are right and I am wrong.  I had in my Danielle Hunter who the Vikings had under contract and he was holding out for a new/better deal a while back.  But I think that's because NFL contracts are generally not guaranteed.  You are correct that MLB seems to have a better handle on that (NBA as well).

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

Thinking about this more, I believe you are right and I am wrong.  I had in my Danielle Hunter who the Vikings had under contract and he was holding out for a new/better deal a while back.  But I think that's because NFL contracts are generally not guaranteed.  You are correct that MLB seems to have a better handle on that (NBA as well).

Yeah, the rules other leagues have around their contracts (NFL not guaranteeing deals for example) definitely leads to some mid-deal shenanigans. It's a lot harder to threaten to hold out on a 10 year, guaranteed deal, though!

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

Thinking about this more, I believe you are right and I am wrong.  I had in my Danielle Hunter who the Vikings had under contract and he was holding out for a new/better deal a while back.  But I think that's because NFL contracts are generally not guaranteed.  You are correct that MLB seems to have a better handle on that (NBA as well).

Yes.  That is right.  Back in the days before free agency stars holding out used to be a regular occurrence because they weren't making the kind of money that they are now -- both in real $$ terms and especially in comparison to the average player.  Seldom did those work out well for anyone involved.