Making moves for the playoffs with Angels

[Riverbrian]

24 minutes ago, Eris said:

These waiver acquisitions are not a free lunch and involve roster management decisions that can impact the playoffs or possibly future talent. Moving someone to the 60 day IL is the only move that doesn’t involve potentially losing a player. 
 

Theoretically let’s say the Twins (or any other team) puts in for 6 waiver claims and is awarded all 6.  What do they do. They could move several players to the 60 day IL, maybe release a few from the 40 man roster. I suppose they could release the newly acquired waiver claim (is this allowed). The acquiring team would be on the hook for the remainder of the contract, but they also prevent another team from putting that player on the playoff roster (as these transactions are taking place on the last day to have 40 man additions eligible for the playoff roster). 
 

A possible outcome is that the few most desirable waiver claims go to worst team at this time (e.g., Cincinnati) that team gets hot and goes deep into the playoffs. 

The Next level of player is out of luck. 

Using the Twins for example. 

I'd only consider 5 players for the Twins. Moore, Lopez, Grichuk, Renfroe and Clevinger. 

It won't happen but let's say we land all 5 because everybody else forgot the deadline was today. 

Luplow and Gallo would be released for Grichuk and Renfroe. 

Floro released for Lopez

Two of Sands, Winder or Funderburk sent to the minors for Moore and Clevinger, With Celestino released and Miranda to the 60 day. 

The Twins have just upgraded significantly.  

Gallo, Luplow, Floro and Celestino are looking for work elsewhere. 

 

[Linus]

4 hours ago, SteveLV said:

I actually like this rule, but I do agree that once a team is awarded a single player, they should revert to the back of the line.

It sucks for the Angels, trading 4 good prospects and then a couple weeks later letting these guys go for free with no compensation except money and, possibly, a higher comp pick if Ohtani walks. Brutal.  

As was so poetically stated in the movie The Sting “ that’s what you get for playing cards with your head up your ass”. 

[Rigby]

19 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

It's an agreement/negotiation between the players union and major league baseball.

Manfred wasn't the only smart person in that room.   

Which one was Manfred.......

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Rigby said:

Which one was Manfred.......

The guy in the back holding the stick. 

[Brandon]

I think season ticket holders won’t like they’re already out of it team, who at least plays .500 ball then goes to a .333 team because management wants to save a few dollars.  I would think long and hard about getting season tickets.  Or I would want an option for a refund if the team dumps players.  Also broader fan apathy.  The goal of MLB is to make baseball competitive for all teams.  When more teams are in the race you get fan interest.  Also interesting is playing the spoiler role.  If you can’t win at least beat the Whitesox so they don’t either.  When you take out these additional narratives and say naw we gotta build for a future where someone else is tanking and we are on top… where is the fun in that?  

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If I was in charge of the Twins... (I Should be 😉 😄). If I was in charge of the Twins and out of contention after a bad August so I missed out on selling in July. I would without a 2nd thought... Jettison every expiring contract that I couldn't get draft compensation for. Yeah, the Twins haven't done that in the few chances that they have had but IMO they should and a new precedent has just been set. 

Look at the aftermath of the current rosters of this years participants in the free puppy giveaway. Angels, Yankees, White Sox, Mets, Tigers. The expiring contracts are all GONE. The Yankees, White Sox, Mets and Tigers got rid of expiring contracts to get ready for the future... they just didn't have as many as the Angels but they are all drained of expiring contracts. That's five teams right there who did the same thing.    

The Padres could have participated but didn't. Snell and Hader are both extremely likely for a QO and therefore draft pick compensation. But... in the case of the Padres... what if they remember that they are a small market team and have already spent more than they could afford, In that case... the off chance that Snell and Hader take the QO could put Snell and Hader into the free puppy box. I know that is a long shot but it can't be discounted. Now the Marlins get Snell, Hader, Moore, Lopez and Grichuk if they want them.

The league was not ready for this.  

Once you are out... the present doesn't matter... the future does so begin the prep for it immediately and save some cash in the meantime. IMO... The Angels finally did a smart thing in my opinion after a really really really really stupid July. 

I think the free puppy giveaway is here to stay unless changes are made. Teams are tanking for FREE now. 

You gotta love baseball. How can you not.  

 

But the White Sox, Mets, and Tigers were sellers at the deadline to start with. A bad August didn't change their game plan. They're just hoping they can save a couple bucks of 1 individual player they couldn't get a prospect for at the deadline. Those teams aren't an example of a change in any team management strategy. The Yankees and Angels are the only 2 teams that match the "fell apart in August so waived guys" box. And the Yankees only waived 1 guy. Then Angels are the outlier and their motivation is to get below the tax threshold to get a better pick when Ohtani leaves. 

The Angels are the only team I see that did anything outside the norm. It's not like teams didn't waive guys in August and September before. This only caught headlines like it did because of the Angels going crazy with things. But their situation is not something that is going to happen very often. No team is going to waive Snell or Hader to save a couple bucks at the end of this year and not take their shot at a compensation pick. That would be horrid asset management.

The league was not ready for the Angels to do what they did, no. And the likely change is to make it so you can only claim 1 guy before cycling to the back of the line so one team can't grab everyone. The free puppy giveaway has always been around, though. I mean the Twins just got Jordan Luplow from the Blue Jays in August. Harrison Bader and his 75 OPS+ isn't a whole lot different than Jordan Luplow and his 67. 34 year old Jose Cisnero and his 5.22 ERA/4.23 FIP isn't Josh Hader. Outside of the Angels there was nothing significantly different with the other guys getting waived than any other year. I just don't see some big sweeping change that occurred outside of the worst run team in the sport going crazy after realizing they made a massive mistake in July.

[chpettit19]

32 minutes ago, Eris said:

These waiver acquisitions are not a free lunch and involve roster management decisions that can impact the playoffs or possibly future talent. Moving someone to the 60 day IL is the only move that doesn’t involve potentially losing a player. 
 

Theoretically let’s say the Twins (or any other team) puts in for 6 waiver claims and is awarded all 6.  What do they do. They could move several players to the 60 day IL, maybe release a few from the 40 man roster. I suppose they could release the newly acquired waiver claim (is this allowed). The acquiring team would be on the hook for the remainder of the contract, but they also prevent another team from putting that player on the playoff roster (as these transactions are taking place on the last day to have 40 man additions eligible for the playoff roster). 
 

A possible outcome is that the few most desirable waiver claims go to worst team at this time (e.g., Cincinnati) that team gets hot and goes deep into the playoffs. 

Eh, I think most teams have 6 40-man moves they could make without breaking a sweat if they thought they were significantly upgrading their playoff chances. I'm willing to bet Cincinnati and Miami have 6 guys on their 40-man that aren't vital parts of their futures. Those pitching staffs have a ton of holes so I can't imagine their non-26-man pitchers on the 40-man would cause them to lose sleep if they dropped them for Moore, Lopez, and Clevinger. There's a lot of "eh" on 40-man rosters. There's certainly a cost to claiming someone, but not an overly expensive one.

[Riverbrian]

14 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

But the White Sox, Mets, and Tigers were sellers at the deadline to start with. A bad August didn't change their game plan. They're just hoping they can save a couple bucks of 1 individual player they couldn't get a prospect for at the deadline. Those teams aren't an example of a change in any team management strategy. The Yankees and Angels are the only 2 teams that match the "fell apart in August so waived guys" box. And the Yankees only waived 1 guy. Then Angels are the outlier and their motivation is to get below the tax threshold to get a better pick when Ohtani leaves. 

The Angels are the only team I see that did anything outside the norm. It's not like teams didn't waive guys in August and September before. This only caught headlines like it did because of the Angels going crazy with things. But their situation is not something that is going to happen very often. No team is going to waive Snell or Hader to save a couple bucks at the end of this year and not take their shot at a compensation pick. That would be horrid asset management.

The league was not ready for the Angels to do what they did, no. And the likely change is to make it so you can only claim 1 guy before cycling to the back of the line so one team can't grab everyone. The free puppy giveaway has always been around, though. I mean the Twins just got Jordan Luplow from the Blue Jays in August. Harrison Bader and his 75 OPS+ isn't a whole lot different than Jordan Luplow and his 67. 34 year old Jose Cisnero and his 5.22 ERA/4.23 FIP isn't Josh Hader. Outside of the Angels there was nothing significantly different with the other guys getting waived than any other year. I just don't see some big sweeping change that occurred outside of the worst run team in the sport going crazy after realizing they made a massive mistake in July.

Maybe

I wish I could stand here and say... I'm right.

I can't. 

But, I am saying that I see a potential problem and I know you see it too because we both agree that the waiver claim process has to be adjusted. If there is no risk of this happening again... they can just continue on without that waiver claim process adjustment that we both think is necessary now.     

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Maybe

I wish I could stand here and say... I'm right.

I can't. 

But, I am saying that I see a potential problem and I know you see it too because we both agree that the waiver claim process has to be adjusted. If there is no risk of this happening again... they can just continue on with the waiver claim process adjustment.    

There's always a risk of someone doing something crazy within the rules. I just think teams have been well aware that they can waive guys now and maybe save money, but definitely clear a spot for a young guy when they're out of the race. There's a reason we were almost all upset with the Twins carrying Simmons the entire season. There wasn't some drastic rule change that lead to these guys getting waived. The rule change is 1 team being able to claim them all. The question, to me, is how big is the risk that a bunch of teams do what the Angels do and cut numerous players that numerous teams would want on a playoff roster? I don't see a big risk. I think they're a special circumstance. But we'll see!

[Riverbrian]

If the Marlins grab all of the Angels today. We've got ourselves a merger. 

Should they be called the Mangels or Arlins afterwards? 

[Mike Sixel]

We all wanted the twins to do this with Simmons.... Frankly, I don't know why more teams don't do this. Especially the cheap ones. Especially with the limits on roster expansion.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If the Marlins grab all of the Angels today. We've got ourselves a merger. 

Should they be called the Mangels or Arlins afterwards? 

Mangels for sure. Not even a question.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

There's always a risk of someone doing something crazy within the rules. I just think teams have been well aware that they can waive guys now and maybe save money, but definitely clear a spot for a young guy when they're out of the race. There's a reason we were almost all upset with the Twins carrying Simmons the entire season. There wasn't some drastic rule change that lead to these guys getting waived. The rule change is 1 team being able to claim them all. The question, to me, is how big is the risk that a bunch of teams do what the Angels do and cut numerous players that numerous teams would want on a playoff roster? I don't see a big risk. I think they're a special circumstance. But we'll see!

The waiver claim is perfect for the Luplow's of the world and it doesn't matter how many of them are in the free puppy box.   

There are better names available this year and more of them and one team being able to claim them all is exactly what I find concerning. 

I just believe this could be a new thing in years to come... because I would do it.  

[ashbury]

15 hours ago, Azviking101 said:

Literally all they would have had to do was put in a clause that if a team makes a successful claim they move to the back of the waiver order. Pretty simple and makes too much sense. I don’t see how anyone would have opposed that. But they didn’t even think about it 

I don't think it can be tweaked quite that simply.  The current waiver process (as with many roster rules) is purposely player-centric, not team-centric.  The claims are all handled simultaneously.  Which player goes first, for this new purpose?  Ideally, the "best" one, but that's subjective.

IMO the solution when there are a lot of such players is to make it more like a draft, of the kind for amateurs in June or the minor league Rule 5 draft in December.  But it's not necessary to make it a public spectacle of any kind.  Just that, beyond simply putting in waiver claims on players, each team must manage its current list of waiver claims, providing the league a ranked order that the league will use if there are enough players currently on waivers and there is contention for them.  Most days of the year, there are only a handful of players and most don't even get claimed - on those days the new system would operate as a practical matter like it does now.  But if there are lots of claims then the league runs an automated draft that day, taking each team in their priority order and assigning them the one player they put at the top of their current list of claims.  The process would continue in circular order until no remaining claims exist.

This preserves the principle that a team has to be serious when they make a waiver claim.  If they put in 6 claims, they'd better be prepared to find room for them all, if no one else takes any.  Waivers and the claims need to remain irrevocable in both directions.  No farting around.

The teams are already connected by databases via the league office.  This would be easy-peasy, and would cut down on abuses by one team scooping up talent for September.  (Assuming that the league even sees this as an abuse that harms public perception of fairness, which they may not.)

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

The waiver claim is perfect for the Luplow's of the world and it doesn't matter how many of them are in the free puppy box.   

There are better names available this year and more of them and one team being able to claim them all is exactly what I find concerning. 

I just believe this could be a new thing in years to come... because I would do it.  

I guess my point is that outside of 3 or 4 dudes, 3 of which came from the Angels, the other guys waived are basically Luplow type players. 

Carrasco has a 6.80 ERA in 20 starts.
Cisnero has a 5.36 ERA in 54 appearances.
Bader has a 77 OPS+ in 82 games.
Renfroe has a 94 OPS+ in 124 games.
Grichuk has a 94 OPS+ in 90 games.

Those guys are pretty typical waiver cuts at this time of year anyways. I mean we've all been calling for a Gallo DFA for months and he has a better OPS+ (99) than any of those guys.

Giolito has been terrible with the Angels, but he's a big name so he stands out.
Moore and Lopez are legit playoff arms so they stand out.
Clevinger is a bit of a wildcard with his buyout making him a really expensive 1 month rental. 

The free puppy bin is still full of mostly guys that it doesn't matter that they're there. Nobody is tripping over themselves for those first 5 names. The better names available almost all come from an outlier situation that isn't likely to repeat itself. 1 team being able to snag all 4 of those arms is a concern, and I'd bet that's the hole that gets filled after the season. But none of the rest of this is new. I think without the Angels we aren't even talking about this. And I don't see their situation coming up too often.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Well sounds like the Twins are not very concerned about the marlins but are about the Reds claiming 1 to 2 players.  That is interesting.  That means there is a better chance 1 of the 2 relievers gets to the Twins.  It would be a pipe dream if both made it to the twins (in reality that the Twins have any shot at these types of players as a waiver claim is a pipe dream) in either case I am more optimistic now the Twins will get 1 of the 2 relievers.  The management has also been given the go ahead to add salary so we know the Twins are making claims just on who now is the question.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Giolito 6'6" and elite with the white sox makes him a want of almost any team.  He can be a depth pitcher that has potential 1,2 or 3 type stuff.   Clevinger is the same but expensive.   You take either Lopez or Moore.  How many of those 4 do the Twins make claims on.  Yes I would love Lopez and Moore but if those are taken would it be better to take Clevinger and Giolito and try to have piggy back games even in the playoff with as many strong pitchers as possible.  

[Riverbrian]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I guess my point is that outside of 3 or 4 dudes, 3 of which came from the Angels, the other guys waived are basically Luplow type players. 

Carrasco has a 6.80 ERA in 20 starts.
Cisnero has a 5.36 ERA in 54 appearances.
Bader has a 77 OPS+ in 82 games.
Renfroe has a 94 OPS+ in 124 games.
Grichuk has a 94 OPS+ in 90 games.

Those guys are pretty typical waiver cuts at this time of year anyways. I mean we've all been calling for a Gallo DFA for months and he has a better OPS+ (99) than any of those guys.

Giolito has been terrible with the Angels, but he's a big name so he stands out.
Moore and Lopez are legit playoff arms so they stand out.
Clevinger is a bit of a wildcard with his buyout making him a really expensive 1 month rental. 

The free puppy bin is still full of mostly guys that it doesn't matter that they're there. Nobody is tripping over themselves for those first 5 names. The better names available almost all come from an outlier situation that isn't likely to repeat itself. 1 team being able to snag all 4 of those arms is a concern, and I'd bet that's the hole that gets filled after the season. But none of the rest of this is new. I think without the Angels we aren't even talking about this. And I don't see their situation coming up too often.

As always... I enjoy our discussions. 

I'm not so sure about what you are saying but Yogi you are smarter than the average bear. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Ted states Twins placed at least 3 waiver claims.  

https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/report_twins_will_be_aggressive_on_waiver_wire_thursday/s1_17017_39197210

[GusGus11]

Twins got NO ONE

Guardians get Giolito AND Lopez. WOW

We massively left the door open with a colassally incompetent last two games and the Guardians said "lets go".

I think we are still fine. But this is absolutely a clean house if you fall short type of month

[Jeff K]

On 8/29/2023 at 5:48 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

Would love to get Moore and/or Lopez. Unfortunately, I think the waiver claim order is reverse order by record and I think at this point it's both leagues. The Twins have the worst record of any presumed playoff team but I got to think that a wild-card contender is going to grab these guys or at least Cleveland will grab them to avoid us getting them.

Grichuk might be interesting but he has kind of sucked with the Angels. The earlier poster was right though, he certainly would be an upgrade over Jordan Luplow. I want no part of Giolitto. He can't help us this year, he completely stunk for the Angels, and he won't be back next year. Same for Hunter Renfroe. Decent stats but talk about empty calories, doesn't play much defense, can't run, rarely hits in the clutch, not much better than what we have. 

Grab Moore or Lopez if he can get them, Moore in particular. Think about Grichuk if he's available. The rest are not worth anything.

If this were last year, I'd want those guys.  At this point, I think the Twins stay within the organization and keep moving forward with our young guys.  

[GusGus11]

Guardians got Moore too

 

They went full fledge assault. Make a run at Twins and block us from adding two arms that would help us in the playoffs big time.

[chpettit19]

37 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

As always... I enjoy our discussions. 

I'm not so sure about what you are saying but Yogi you are smarter than the average bear. 

Always appreciate the thoughtful back and forth!

Will be fun to see how it plays out today and in years to come. It's what keeps us coming back for more picinic baskets!

[chpettit19]

Pretty shocking to see the Guardians add to payroll today. Not great for the Twins. Have a fight on their hands again!

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Mangels for sure. Not even a question.

Margels

[Squirrel]

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Pretty shocking to see the Guardians add to payroll today. Not great for the Twins. Have a fight on their hands again!

yeah ... wondering how soon after the season is over these rules change ... claim one, back to the end of the line. It's like the Guardians knew exactly who the Twins would target ... shocking (not at all)

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

yeah ... wondering how soon after the season is over these rules change ... claim one, back to the end of the line. It's like the Guardians knew exactly who the Twins would target ... shocking (not at all)

There is just as much possibility that Marlins or Reds would have picked up those players as well.  I think the Reds were the ones that were likely left in the dust by the Guardians moves.  

[HokieRif]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Pretty shocking to see the Guardians add to payroll today. Not great for the Twins. Have a fight on their hands again!

Given the August that Giolito put together this might not be so bad... possibly great for us.  If the Guardians go 1-4 when Giolito starts then I'm all for it (as long as that 1 isn't against us).

[Squirrel]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

There is just as much possibility that Marlins or Reds would have picked up those players as well.  I think the Reds were the ones that were likely left in the dust by the Guardians moves.  

The question still remains … will these rules be adjusted somehow, and how, after the season is over. A couple of teams shouldn’t be allowed to claim everyone, imo, so just wondering if rules will be adjusted in some way … like one claim then to the end of the line. Don’t even know the best way around it. Or just leave it as it is thinking that this year is an anomaly.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 minute ago, Squirrel said:

The question still remains … how soon after the season is over these rules will be adjusted somehow. A couple of teams shouldn’t be allowed to claim everyone, imo, so just wondering if rules will be adjusted in some way … like one claim then to the end of the line. Don’t even know the best way around it. Or just leave it as it is thinking that this year is an anomaly.

I think its difficult to change the rules.  Yes you can switch to a waiver claim like fantasy, however, those lower teams need as much help as anyone.  I guess the concern is, why didn't any of the poor teams try to get better and pick these players up? Its because they don't want to compete for this year.