Trading for Bellinger, what would you give?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Matt Trueblood wrote this over at North Side Baseball and it's interesting to see some posters shrug off Alex Kirilloff for Bellinger, which I think is pure madness (I would hate that trade for the Twins, FTR).

Bellinger is going to be expensive. There aren't many hitters on the market and several teams appear to need a center fielder.

So what would you give up for Cody?

https://northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/chicago-cubs/a-trade-a-day-should-the-cubs-trade-cody-bellinger-to-the-twins-r191/

[cmoss84]

Buxton.

Larnach.

Polanco.

SWR.

Balozovic.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, cmoss84 said:

Buxton.

Larnach.

Polanco.

SWR.

Balozovic.

Buxton has a no-trade clause, the Cubs have several middle infielders and absolutely no need for Polanco, and it's going to take more than a retread/faltering prospect to land Cody Bellinger.

[SteveLV]

Should have simply signed him last winter so we would not be having this discussion,

I would not trade for him unless he would accept a contract extension from the Twins.

[cmoss84]

Buxton can waive it...

It probably takes a pitching prospect or two...

Maybe Larnach or Balozovic and SWR...

[Vanimal46]

I think Cubs fans are going to be disappointed with the trade return of Bellinger. I wouldn’t trade a top 100 global prospect for him. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

13 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

I think Cubs fans are going to be disappointed with the trade return of Bellinger. I wouldn’t trade a top 100 global prospect for him. 

Actually, I think the opposite is true. I think Bellinger is going to draw a ton of demand given his defensive ability and the overall lack of hitters available at the deadline.

In a normal year, I agree with your premise but there just aren't clear-cut sellers who have big bats to offer. Maybe that changes if St Louis pulls its head out of its ass and trades Goldschmidt but it's really unclear what they're thinking over there. Same applies to the Angels and Ohtani.

[Vanimal46]

24 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Actually, I think the opposite is true. I think Bellinger is going to draw a ton of demand given his defensive ability and the overall lack of hitters available at the deadline.

In a normal year, I agree with your premise but there just aren't clear-cut sellers who have big bats to offer. Maybe that changes if St Louis pulls its head out of its ass and trades Goldschmidt but it's really unclear what they're thinking over there. Same applies to the Angels and Ohtani.

Each year is different so you could be right. Nothing has really developed yet with this year’s trade market. I am trying to think back to when other star rental players were traded who played a premium position. Machado brought back quantity - like 4 or 5 middling prospects to the Orioles. Was Betts a rental? If so, Verdugo was a top 100 guy. 

[Vanimal46]

For the Twins specifically, I wouldn’t trade Raya, E-Rod, or Lee for him. Definitely interested in him once he hits free agency though. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Each year is different so you could be right. Nothing has really developed yet with this year’s trade market. I am trying to think back to when other star rental players were traded who played a premium position. Machado brought back quantity - like 4 or 5 middling prospects to the Orioles. Was Betts a rental? If so, Verdugo was a top 100 guy. 

Betts had at least a year left. I think it was a year. The Dodgers extended him before the end of the contract so he almost surely wasn't a two month rental.

[SF Twins Fan]

I don't see any way the Twins would trade Kiriloff for 1 year of Bellinger.  The Twins don't need another lefty hitting OF/1B.  They need a right handed hitting OF.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

I think Cubs fans are going to be disappointed with the trade return of Bellinger. I wouldn’t trade a top 100 global prospect for him. 

I agree, I think Cubs fans are going to overvalue Bellinger as much as Twins fans will overvalue Gray or whomever else might be made available. Five years ago players like Bellinger may have gotten a big return, but no sane GM is going to sell the farm for a guy who's shown a half season of improvement after two seasons of being a complete train wreck.

That said, I'd happily get in the bargain bidding once the Cubs acknowledge at the last minute that they aren't going to get nearly as much as they're surely demanding now.

[chpettit19]

30 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Betts had at least a year left. I think it was a year. The Dodgers extended him before the end of the contract so he almost surely wasn't a two month rental.

Betts was also an offseason trade.

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Betts was also an offseason trade.

Not to mention, Betts was and still is a HOF caliber player.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Not to mention, Betts was and still is a HOF caliber player.

Indeed he is.

[danielp19653]

I imagine it will take a pretty solid prospect or two to outbid and I have 0 interest in that for him. I'd rather see what he wants in the offseason and take a chance on that 

[Brock Beauchamp]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Betts was also an offseason trade.

Yeah, that's what I meant by a year, should have clarified myself.

[USAFChief]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Betts was also an offseason trade.

Part of the original 3 way trade with the Twins, that ended up 2 separate trades after Boston didn't like Gtaterol's medicals. 

 

[gunnarthor]

I don't like the idea of this Twins team trading for a rental player. I think we should be modest sellers. I don't think Bellinger would move this team forward in any sizeable way. I also think he's more a corner OFer than CFer at this point although he's ok in CF this year. Sign him in the offseason to be our LFer. 

But I think trading Emmanual Rodriguez would probably be enough - a top 100 prospect but far away but with enough to entice the Cubs. Not sure I'd do that in a vacuum but if we were making more additions to fix this team, maybe? I dunno. Like I said, I'd rather be modest sellers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

49 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't like the idea of this Twins team trading for a rental player. I think we should be modest sellers. I don't think Bellinger would move this team forward in any sizeable way. I also think he's more a corner OFer than CFer at this point although he's ok in CF this year. Sign him in the offseason to be our LFer. 

I've watched Bellinger a fair amount this season. He's still a capable center fielder. Maybe he starts declining soon but as a rental, his defense is not something that concerns me in the slightest in 2023.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd deal from their deep pool of 40 -45 FV guys.....like Severino (who they won't promote) or Larnach (who they won't promote) or Kiersey (he's not exactly young) for him. I don't know if that is enough.

But if this FO won't promote guys, and seem to love veterans so much, they might as well get value for those guys while they can.

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'd deal from their deep pool of 40 -45 FV guys.....like Severino (who they won't promote) or Larnach (who they won't promote) or Kiersey (he's not exactly young) for him. I don't know if that is enough.

But if this FO won't promote guys, and seem to love veterans so much, they might as well get value for those guys while they can.

I don't know if that's enough either, but I wouldn't give up anymore than those types of guys. Guys who need 40-man spots during the offseason, but the team hasn't given itself a shot to know if they should keep or not. Kiersey feels like a great Rule 5 pickup as a possible bench outfield glove/stolen base threat for some team. Like Taylor was supposed to be for this team.

I don't trust Bellinger. He was Gallo bad for 3 years, and isn't MVP good now. He's not saving this team. But if I can replace Kepler or Gallo with him for a guy we won't 40-man after the season anyways? Why not? Give it a shot. See what happens.

[specialiststeve]

"Make them" take Max, Gallo and Then give up a good prospect. Say Raya... and if needed a lotto ticket guy from the low minors... Throw him in Center for the rest of the year against righties.. 

[nicksaviking]

27 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

"Make them" take Max, Gallo and Then give up a good prospect. Say Raya... and if needed a lotto ticket guy from the low minors... Throw him in Center for the rest of the year against righties.. 

I'm not giving up a better prospect just to take two players the Twins could easily DFA. If the Twins won't take on the 11M or so left owed to Bellinger, they shouldn't be trading for him.

I'm also not sure why the Cubs would be interested in Gallo and Kepler. Wouldn't they rather just eat some of Bellinger's contract for a better prospect and give their own young players at bats rather than rostering two guys who won't be there next year?

[stringer bell]

If the sentiment is playing the younger guys, in 2024 the Twins will probably lose Kepler, Gallo, Solano, Taylor to free agency and might non-tender Nick Gordon (on the position player side). On the pitching side, Gray, Maeda, and Mahle will be free agents. Losing that much salary, they can probably add a notable veteran or two and give lots of guys a chance to play.

With less than 70 games to play and a 2.5 game lead, the team should have a duty to try to do something in the playoffs. If Bellinger can be had without losing a top ten prospect, go for it.

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not giving up a better prospect just to take two players the Twins could easily DFA. If the Twins won't take on the 11M or so left owed to Bellinger, they shouldn't be trading for him.

I'm also not sure why the Cubs would be interested in Gallo and Kepler. Wouldn't they rather just eat some of Bellinger's contract for a better prospect and give their own young players at bats rather than rostering two guys who won't be there next year?

Let the Cubs eat Bellinger's remaining salary, we'll eat Gallo's, and trade them even-up.  Fair and square.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

I love how the same fans who are whining about Steer, CEH, Arraez, and Cano succeeding on other ballclubs now want to empty out the farm for a rental lefty bat.

Bellinger's surplus value on BTV is less than $1M, which means that a fringe top-30 prospect is likely all it will take. Maybe they can throw in a bullpen piece like Fulmer/Boxberg and some cash for a prospect in the range of Schobel/Hidalgo. I don't think the Twins have a particular need for LH OFers, but the cost will not be high, regardless.

[USAFChief]

17 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

I love how the same fans who are whining about Steer, CEH, Arraez, and Cano succeeding on other ballclubs now want to empty out the farm for a rental lefty bat.

Bellinger's surplus value on BTV is less than $1M, which means that a fringe top-30 prospect is likely all it will take. Maybe they can throw in a bullpen piece like Fulmer/Boxberg and some cash for a prospect in the range of Schobel/Hidalgo. I don't think the Twins have a particular need for LH OFers, but the cost will not be high, regardless.

You're way underestimating what it'll take. 

He's got MVP level past cred, can play CF, and is hitting .301/.358/.524.

He's gonna cost.

 

 

 

[jkcarew]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

But if I can replace Kepler or Gallo with him for a guy we won't 40-man after the season anyways? Why not?

I would assume, as a 2023 rental, he’d replace MAT. For sure against righties anyway.

[jkcarew]

I’m more of a seller than a buyer for this deadline.

But I do think Bellinger would be as much of a needle mover as anyone else I can think of. Finally get to replace MAT’s ABs (with someone other than Castro). And he seems to have his stroke this year.

I’d love to have him next year, in a scenario where he’s in a corner instead of Kepler with Buxton (or Lewis) in center. We can dream.