Let's strike Gold

[cmoss84]

Cardinals are terrible...10 games back and not looking good. Let's not wait until the trade deadline, as we know our division is up for grabs. Paul Goldschmidt would look amazing in a Twins uniform.

He makes $26 this year and next.

Maybe a package like this?

Polanco, Kirillof, SWR, Balazovic

[Nine of twelve]

4 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Cardinals are terrible...10 games back and not looking good. Let's not wait until the trade deadline, as we know our division is up for grabs. Paul Goldschmidt would look amazing in a Twins uniform.

He makes $26 this year and next.

Maybe a package like this?

Polanco, Kirillof, SWR, Balazovic

No way. The Cardinals would take that deal in a heartbeat, which means we would be giving up way too much for an expensive player well past his prime.

[CRF]

Wouldn't mind Goldy here, but not for that package. 

[weitz41]

Oye. that's pretty steep for Goldie. Don't get me wrong I'd love to have him on the Twins, but the package would likely be built around starting pitching. Something like Ober and SWR.

I think I'd prefer to keep Ober and the $26 million.

Oh, and Goldschmidt has a no trade clause.

[Squirrel]

6 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Cardinals are terrible...10 games back and not looking good. Let's not wait until the trade deadline, as we know our division is up for grabs. Paul Goldschmidt would look amazing in a Twins uniform.

He makes $26 this year and next.

Maybe a package like this?

Polanco, Kirillof, SWR, Balazovic

No way do I, or hopefully not the FO as well, give up that much; no way, no how. That said, the thought to try and trade for him is a good thought. There was an article on that recently.

https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/62735-the-best-player-the-twins-could-acquire-at-the-trade-deadline/

 

[TopGunn#22]

First, the expectations in St. Louis are always higher than they are in Minneapolis.  The Cardinal organization and their fans EXPECT not to just contend, but to WIN their division and to not say Rosaries that they, please, just win ONE playoff game.  So the idea of the Cards throwing in the towel is a tough one to embrace.  

And yet, here the Cards are, absolutely dead in the water with a shaky pitching staff and their closer (Helsly) out until near the end of July.  They have players who could step right in for Goldy (Gorman).  They're an organization that would never give a Max Kepler the time to figure things out like the Twins would.  So maybe the Cards would be up for a minor re-tool.

I went to Baseball Trade Values and put together this deal:

Twins Get:  Goldy 35 y/o 1B  BBTV of 21.1 and Jordan Hicks 26 y/o RP 2.6 value for a total of 23.7.

Cards Get:  Sonny Gray 33 y/o SP 17.8 BBTV and Josh Winder 26 y/o SP/RP  5.8 value for a total of 23.6.

Cards can plug Gorman in as their primary 1B and add a SP in Gray.  Winder who could start or come out of their BP.

Twins plug Goldy in at 1B and hit him #3 or #4.  Hicks joins the Twins BP.  If the Cards just can't let Hicks go (he's shown a flash of two but never put it all together) then replace him with Gallagos (2.2 value) who's 33 years old.  Then it's a microscopic Twins overpay.  

It's a trade for both teams and the state of Minnesota get's to have a player called "Goldy."  How perfect is that??

[notoriousgod71]

If the twins were close to being a legitimate contender I'd do the first trade every single time. But since the twins are mediocre at best there's no point in getting Goldschmidt to make us an 85 win team instead of 81. It's the same as the Gray trade. Doesn't move the needle enough to be worth it.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

First, the expectations in St. Louis are always higher than they are in Minneapolis.  The Cardinal organization and their fans EXPECT not to just contend, but to WIN their division and to not say Rosaries that they, please, just win ONE playoff game.  So the idea of the Cards throwing in the towel is a tough one to embrace.  

And yet, here the Cards are, absolutely dead in the water with a shaky pitching staff and their closer (Helsly) out until near the end of July.  They have players who could step right in for Goldy (Gorman).  They're an organization that would never give a Max Kepler the time to figure things out like the Twins would.  So maybe the Cards would be up for a minor re-tool.

I went to Baseball Trade Values and put together this deal:

Twins Get:  Goldy 35 y/o 1B  BBTV of 21.1 and Jordan Hicks 26 y/o RP 2.6 value for a total of 23.7.

Cards Get:  Sonny Gray 33 y/o SP 17.8 BBTV and Josh Winder 26 y/o SP/RP  5.8 value for a total of 23.6.

Cards can plug Gorman in as their primary 1B and add a SP in Gray.  Winder who could start or come out of their BP.

Twins plug Goldy in at 1B and hit him #3 or #4.  Hicks joins the Twins BP.  If the Cards just can't let Hicks go (he's shown a flash of two but never put it all together) then replace him with Gallagos (2.2 value) who's 33 years old.  Then it's a microscopic Twins overpay.  

It's a trade for both teams and the state of Minnesota get's to have a player called "Goldy."  How perfect is that??

You are exactly correct about them not giving up & being very prideful. The Cardinals don’t trade last year’s MVP! No matter if he’s 35 or 31.

Gray is only signed through this year and they don’t need nor want an expensive, veteran starter w/o control if they are punting on this season……….,Again, I don’t see them entertaining a Goldschmidt trade at all as they aren’t concerned about his $$…,………just for kicks, maybe an SWR & Winder would interest them or somebody, assuming one of them can ultimately become average in a rotation.

 

[dxpavelka]

Maybe we should throw in Lewis and Lee too.

 

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins should not be buyers 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Honestly, I really don't think any of those 4 players have any trade value or value to the Cardinals roster.

 

[Parfigliano]

Should be no trade guys...Kirilloff and Balazovic. 

If someone will take Polanco wish him well and bye bye.

To me (your mileage may vary) SWR has never really got a shot to show if he belongs in "the show'.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, weitz41 said:

Oye. that's pretty steep for Goldie. Don't get me wrong I'd love to have him on the Twins, but the package would likely be built around starting pitching. Something like Ober and SWR.

I think I'd prefer to keep Ober and the $26 million.

Oh, and Goldschmidt has a no trade clause.

Trade a 2.6 ERA guy in an era when 3.6 is better then average. No no no.

[ewen21]

I like Goldschmidt a lot, but no way.  First of all, we are not contenders.  Second, he would be a one year rental.  He turns 36 in September and as good as he is his decline is imminent

[cmoss84]

Thank you all for your opinions! The more the better! Few takeaways:

1) we all value players differently...from "this is way too steep" to "cardinals would never accept this."

For me:

Polanco...we have seen his best days and need to take advantage of his value ASAP

Kirrillof: love the guy but his wrist is going to be an issue his entire career

SWR and Balazovic are lotto tickets

2) as bad as we are...we ARE contenders. You win the division, you get hot at the right time, and anything can happen.

3) we would have Goldy for this year and next, and he still plays every day...and at a high level.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Cards Get:  Sonny Gray 33 y/o SP

A good starting pitcher on an expiring contract.  Hm, I was about to suggest that going after Jordon Montgomery, a good starting pitcher on an expiring contract, might be worth discussing.  Gray to the Cardinals would be trying to swim upstream to what that team probably has in mind.

But really, unless last night's game turns into a trend as we approach the trading deadline, I'm with the group saying not to invest any significant prospect capital (which is what St Loo will want for either Goldschmidt or Montgomery) as buyers this year.

 

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Should be no trade guys...Kirilloff and Balazovic. 

If someone will take Polanco wish him well and bye bye.

To me (your mileage may vary) SWR has never really got a shot to show if he belongs in "the show'.

SWR has never EARNED a shot.  That's on him.

[Parfigliano]

If Goldschmidt was a bag of balls they WOULD NOT be offering him.  4-5 years ago every wants. Today suckers want.

[jorgenswest]

I strongly disagree with the anything can happen in the playoffs.

• This isn’t 1987 when the playoff conditions were very different. Home park advantage rotated and it just so happened that the AL West had home for both ALCS and WS (same in 1991). That was a significant edge for the Twins.
• You need to win 4 series in a row instead of 2. Some say you just need to go 13-9. While true it is a flawed argument. Many of the paths that get to 13-9 get cut off before you get to the finish. Start 1-2 or 4-4 and you don’t get a chance to go 13-9. The Twins have yet to win 4 series in a row this year. They haven’t even won three series in a row. They need to show that kind of consistency before they should be buyers.

They have a chance. They have taken the Orioles series. Win the next three series and I am in on Goldschmidt.

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I strongly disagree with the anything can happen in the playoffs.

• This isn’t 1987 when the playoff conditions were very different. Home park advantage rotated and it just so happened that the AL West had home for both ALCS and WS (same in 1991). That was a significant edge for the Twins.
• You need to win 4 series in a row instead of 2. Some say you just need to go 13-9. While true it is a flawed argument. Many of the paths that get to 13-9 get cut off before you get to the finish. Start 1-2 or 4-4 and you don’t get a chance to go 13-9. The Twins have yet to win 4 series in a row this year. They haven’t even won three series in a row. They need to show that kind of consistency before they should be buyers.

To add to the above: The Twins were the best of a weak division. Sound familiar? If there were 3 divisions in 1987 the Twins would have been the second wild card team. If you add this year's Tampa Bay team to the mix we would have been the third wild card. That's a lot different than winning only two 7-game series, opening at home for both of them. (In fairness, the ALCS had 2 games in Minnesota and 3 in Detroit, so in actuality the Tigers had home field advantage.) But it doesn't change the fact that even though the team was good and we won what we needed to win we had luck on our side that year. Big time.

[cmoss84]

So if it was unexpected in 1987, why not again? Once you get on the dance floor...you can dance. Pauley can help us dance. 

[cmoss84]

...this is the best pitching we've had in a long time also...

[jorgenswest]

13 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

So if it was unexpected in 1987, why not again? Once you get on the dance floor...you can dance. Pauley can help us dance. 

Why not again?

It feels like I am repeating myself but it is four series instead of two and they would only open at home in the first of the four. This team hasn’t even won more than two series in a row this season. If they win 4 series in a row by the deadline I would be a buyer. 

[cmoss84]

Point is...whoever wins the WS:

Has to make the playoffs 

Has to get hot at the right time

Needs luck

I'd rather be in the position we are then being 10 wins over .500 and 10 games back of division with very little postseason hope...

(PS...am I really giving up that much in this deal?)

[Nine of twelve]

9 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

Point is...whoever wins the WS:

Has to make the playoffs 

Has to get hot at the right time

Needs luck

I'd rather be in the position we are then being 10 wins over .500 and 10 games back of division with very little postseason hope...

(PS...am I really giving up that much in this deal?)

You don't even have to get hot, just kinda warm. Go 13-9 over 22 games and you are World Champs. Of course there is the matter of playing against the best MLB has to offer...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

23 minutes ago, cmoss84 said:

(PS...am I really giving up that much in this deal?)

You already played a good devil’s advocate in an earlier post. The St. Louis general manager would surely do the same. Some or all of those players may have real or sentimental value to Twins fans, but honesty probably not worth much to the Cardinals. 

[weitz41]

17 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Trade a 2.6 ERA guy in an era when 3.6 is better then average. No no no.

like I said: I think I'd prefer to keep Ober and the $26 million.

[Craig Arko]

In the playoffs, it’s pitching that takes the spotlight. I don’t think the Twins will advance all the way but they could make some noise.

[jorgenswest]

11 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

You don't even have to get hot, just kinda warm. Go 13-9 over 22 games and you are World Champs. Of course there is the matter of playing against the best MLB has to offer...

We really have a different understanding of the math to get to that 13-9. They need to go 2-1 and then 3-2 and then 4-3 and then 4-3. Only a small percent of the paths to 13-9 take that path. It is much more difficult to get there by winning 4 series and they will need to be way more than kinda warm.

The bar I think they need to pass is win 4 series in a row by the deadline. I suggested that bar weeks ago and still waiting for them to get there. So far they have managed two in a row. They still can do this in July. Win the next three series and I am in. Two of them are the A’s and Royals. If the Orioles trip them up next weekend they still have 5 series against losing teams after the break to win 4 in a row. If they can’t do it against the likes of the A’s, Mariners, White Sox and Royals why would we want them to trade off prospects thinking they can improve the team enough to win four series in a row against the best teams?

[cmoss84]

Just for the record, I never said anything about trading Gray or Ober. 

My deal was Polanco, Kirillof, SWR, and Bolozovic...