Know Your Role: Lineup Edition

[Hans Birkeland]

The Twins keep underperforming their talent level on offense, with even their more established players struggling with inconsistency and high strikeout rates. Could an ancient tactic from an old friend hold the key to unlocking the lineup's potential?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika, USA Today

Doug Mientkiewicz was on A.J. Pierzynski’s podcast recently, doing his best Jose Canseco impression and lamenting that the Twins wanted Byron Buxton to experience success in the minors and prioritized that, in Mientkiewicz’s eyes, over his development. That was eye-opening given Buxton’s initial struggles in the majors. Buxton was put in the leadoff spot, according to Mientkiewicz, because he would see more fastballs and would have more success. He could crush fastballs at that point. His weakness was the slider, and in that sense Buxton’s High-A numbers were inflated at the expense of his own development.

If this is true, it is pretty damning for the Twins, but not overly surprising. Another area where numbers are given priority over the humans behind them is with lineup construction, and specifically the murky nature of what each hitter’s role is on the team.

The roster is full of both good players that need to start hitting, and not-great players the team is stuck with. The only real goal is winning with the guys they have by executing game plans, in-game situations, hitter’s counts. All of it.

I’m sure Mientkiewicz would describe this as “knowing how to win.” Teams in all sports need to have success in this somewhat subjective realm. The Vikings won thirteen games this past season by emphasizing winning in-game situations, and their record in one-score games would seem to confirm that.

The Timberwolves returned to the playoffs two years ago, and one of the main catalysts was point guard Patrick Beverly, who personally took all of his teammates aside and demanded to know what their “role” was.

There is an argument that the Vikings had success because they were lucky and the Wolves had success because they had star players and a good coach, but both franchises had surprising turnarounds either way. When a team has an acute problem and the personnel isn’t the issue, there are only so many options. You can fire the coach like the Vikings, fire the front office like the Angels (but also like the Vikings), or try something new, maybe something a little old school.

You can channel some Pat Bev energy and establish defined roles for the lineup, for one. Certainly, injuries have played a part in the infinite number of lineup combinations Rocco Baldelli has utilized thus far. However, getting back to basics and letting individual guys know what spot in the lineup they are going to hit could have some intrinsic benefit.

Carlos Correa, for instance, batted in the two hole last year 105 times and the three hole 28 times. This year, he has hit second 33 times, third 18 times, and apparently is now the team’s cleanup hitter. And he’s had a more consistent role than many others:

Jorge Polanco has been slowed by injuries this year, yet he still has found himself more than once in each of the leadoff, second, third, fourth and fifth spots in the lineup.

Byron Buxton isn’t sure if he’s the leadoff hitter, third place or fourth place hitter.

Alex Kirilloff has between four and eight starts in the second, third, fourth and fifth spots in the order.

Joey Gallo has more than four starts in the first, fifth, sixth and seventh spots.

And now Royce Lewis has only played ten games so far, but has started in five different spots in the batting order.

Stability can be beneficial, because different spots in the lineup present different challenges. Leadoff hitters see fewer breaking balls, while number nine hitters see more strikes, as do guys hitting in front of a team’s best hitter. Cleanup hitters might feel their duty is to hit for power and drive in runs, even if that doesn’t come naturally to them as an individual. Leadoff hitters might feel they need to take a pitch or two, even if ambushing the first strike they see is a strength for them. Shuffling between slots can definitely impact a hitter’s confidence because of the pitches they see and their overall mindset, especially if they are a player who thrives off of having a consistent routine.

The Twins have depth and a positionally flexible lineup and bench, so there will always be three to four spots that could change on any given day. But it might help to establish that Polanco is the leadoff hitter when he’s healthy. Perhaps Kirilloff has done enough to warrant being the number two hitter. Correa can be the third place hitter, and Buxton can hit cleanup. If the team is confident that Lewis is ascendant, cement him in the number five spot. Gallo can take sixth and the catcher, Michael A. Taylor and your remaining corner outfielder of the month can shuffle around in the final three spots.

It should be noted that the hitter who has had the most stability in his lineup position, Taylor (who has hit ninth in 43 out of 51 starts this year), has probably outperformed his preseason projection more than anyone else on the team.

The other issue is platooning, and I’m going to jump out on a limb here. The 2021 Giants won 107 games by breaking their backs to have the platoon advantage whenever and wherever possible. Since then, their offense has, for the most part, stalled, with a lot of their lefty mashers regressing against those who they previously feasted upon.  It could be a market inefficiency that not fixating on always having the platoon advantage can allow hitters to settle in a little more, get some reps against same-sided pitchers, and more organically be exposed to opposite-handed pitchers. It also might be true that with more pitchers using data to tinker with new pitches, and often pitches that fade arm-side, the platoon advantage for a hitter just doesn’t mean what it once did.

If this sounds off base, I implore you to find a more logical explanation for the Twins futility against left-handed pitchers since 2020, with players like Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson, Gary Sanchez and Ryan Jeffers inexplicably losing half their OPS against lefties for years at a time once a light was shone on how successful they had been against them. 

Fixating on the platoon advantage also means subbing out fairly good hitters early in the game, a meager benefit whose cost is potentially prohibitive. Pinch hitting for Kirilloff against the Giants in the second inning a few weeks ago is the best (worst?) example of the kind of over-platooning that can cost the team in the short term (it would be nice to have the team’s best hitter available in the late innings) and long-term (Kirilloff looks like he has the kind of swing and approach to hold his own against lefties if given enough chances).

I’m not saying to ignore all platoon advantages, but maybe instead of benching every lefty possible when facing a left-handed starter, just bench one or two. This team has a lot of talent, and the impression I get is that in addition to injuries, the team is messing around with its talent to the point that they are getting in their own way. These guys should hit, and simplifying the job is not only a good way to climb out of any rut, it may be a good long-term play, as well.

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[weitz41]

Great article Hans. I too think line up stability would help player performance and I also think the extreme platoons is not helping anyone dealing with it performance. 

I would think line up stability (barring injuries) would build confidence over time and platoons limited to a few positions would do the same.

[EGFTShaw]

Can you SMEElllllllllllllllllllllllllllll what the Rocco is cooking... ;)

Know your role Jabroni.. LOL

Absolutely.

Know your role and get comfortable with it.

Does PatBev play baseball?

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

The Timberwolves returned to the playoffs two years ago, and one of the main catalysts was point guard Patrick Beverly, who personally took all of his teammates aside and demanded to know what their “role” was.

Approve:

[Markdumont25]

Spot on. I'm reminded of the once upon a time I played poker professionally. With poker, there's a few different ways of playing; GTO (essentially analytics) and exploitative (making situational adjustments base on the exact opponent and other acute factors). As long as you're interpreting them correctly, the numbers are the numbers and in long-term situations playing an analytical style will reap benefits. However, there's always exceptions to the rule and being able to recognize situations when it makes sense to deviate from the numbers will make you even more profitable overall. I think Rocco and the twins overall have become too reliant on the numbers and not willing to pivot when the situation calls for it, to their detriment. I think the best example of this in recent history is when the rays pulled Blake Snell when he was absolutely dealing in a must win world series game. At that point there is no long term, there's only the current moment and you need to stick with what's working right now. I don't hate on Rocco as much as some others on this site, but I do think his biggest  weakness is not being able to recognize when to push the spreadsheet aside and make a common sense decision based on what's happening in real time.

[ashbury]

29 minutes ago, Markdumont25 said:

Spot on. I'm reminded of the once upon a time I played poker professionally. With poker, there's a few different ways of playing; GTO (essentially analytics) and exploitative (making situational adjustments base on the exact opponent and other acute factors).

I don't see why the latter style isn't analytics, maybe even more acutely so.  It's what an airline does when faced with probabilistic changes in the weather forecast, for example.

I keep thinking that people use the term Analytics to mean Analytics done in an elementary and perhaps lazy manner and thus badly.

[Markdumont25]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I don't see why the latter style isn't analytics, maybe even more acutely so.  It's what an airline does when faced with probabilistic changes in the weather forecast, for example.

I keep thinking that people use the term Analytics to mean Analytics done in an elementary and perhaps lazy manner and thus badly.

Yea, I see what you're saying. There is so much data out there that just about any decision could be justified by "analytics". But I'm saying even when the numbers are very clear in pointing to a course of action, those numbers still operate on a long-term scale and sometimes it makes sense to ignore those numbers. For example, if Kepler was 18/25 against a righty pitcher You might still want to keep him on the bench when Royce is mashing and Kepler is slumping. Even though the number support bringing him in, If you look beyond them to the current situation it might not be the right choice. I don't think Rocco does that enough.

[Riverbrian]

19 hours ago, Hans Birkeland said:

Stability can be beneficial, because different spots in the lineup present different challenges. Leadoff hitters see fewer breaking balls, while number nine hitters see more strikes, as do guys hitting in front of a team’s best hitter. Cleanup hitters might feel their duty is to hit for power and drive in runs, even if that doesn’t come naturally to them as an individual. Leadoff hitters might feel they need to take a pitch or two, even if ambushing the first strike they see is a strength for them. Shuffling between slots can definitely impact a hitter’s confidence because of the pitches they see and their overall mindset, especially if they are a player who thrives off of having a consistent routine.

I couldn't disagree with this more. 

How many less breaking balls does the leadoff hitter see? 

How many times does the leadoff hitter actually hit leadoff in a game? 

If Aaron Judge was the nine hitter: Would he see more strikes because he is the nine hitter or would they still pitch him like he is... I don't know... Aaron Judge?

 Cleanup hitters MIGHT feel?

Leadoff hitters MIGHT feel? 

Confidence? Consistent Routine? 

I couldn't disagree more. No offense intended but I'll file this writing next to the article I read about mermaids written by a teenager who just watched the movie Splash. That might be harsh but I know there are a lot of people who believe this stuff. To all those people. There are no mermaids.  

If your team goes 1-2-3 in the 1st inning. Your cleanup hitter is now a leadoff hitter. If 6,7,8 in the order load the bases... your nine hitter is now a cleanup hitter.

You still have to grab a bat and swing it when it's your turn. Each at bat will have a new context based on the conditions that exist at the time.

The leadoff hitter is only guaranteed to hit lead off one time but the leadoff hitter is guaranteed to have more plate appearances so why not put your hottest hitter in the leadoff spot? If Gallo is 0 for 27... I think it's ok to move him out of the leadoff spot.   

You think Correa has bounced around in the lineup. I find it ridiculous that Carlos Correa remained near the top of the order despite a two month slump.

He couldn't be moved to 8th in the order when he has forgotten how to hit and then back to the 3 spot when he started to show that he remembers how to hit.

Would it be a blow to the confidence of Carlos Correa if he moved down in the order? Tell him to go look at his contract... it might restore some confidence. 

Is it a bigger confidence blow to move a vet in the batting order or is it a bigger confidence blow to send a rookie like Wallner down to the minors and recall a Garlick over him? Who should be better equipped to deal with a crisis of confidence... the guy making 35 million or the rookie being sent to St. Paul? 

 Max Kepler was our leadoff hitter... should he still be there for the intrinsic benefit... whatever that is. 

If Buxton hit 1st on Monday, 6th on Tuesday, Bench on Wednesday, 2nd on Friday, 9th on Saturday and 3rd on Sunday. Would that really blow his mind or would he start to understand... Hey... I got to hit the ball no matter where I hit in the order. 

What if you decide that Correa is your 3rd hitter and you lock him in like you suggest. What happens when his heel hurts and Farmer has to play at SS for a day. Does Farmer just go into the 3 spot no questions asked? You'd have to because if Farmer doesn't go into the 3 spot... you'd have to move your 6 spot guy into the 3 hole and now the apple cart is all turned over.

Mermaids. 

 

[Original_JB]

 

[Andrew Bryz-Gornia]

1) Mientkiewicz was awesome as a player, but we learn more and more after his retirement from playing that he's a stubborn redass. He was fired as a minor league manager by the Twins organization despite a successful season, after all. Therefore, I take anything he has to say with a grain of salt. 

2) If you're going to say that leadoff hitters see fewer breaking balls and every other statement you said in that paragraph, there should either be a link to evidence that it's true or you should be citing the numbers that show it's true. Otherwise, it just sounds like old school baseball wisdom that has been debunked as more data was discovered.

Sorry if this comes off as rude, it's meant to be constructive criticism.  

[Blyleven2011]

I wasn't going to read this ...

but I totally agree with everything you wrote , I've stated many times that the twins have no rhythm or harmony  in their approach at the plate because they don't know their roles  ... 

Lots of head scratching on the FO and managers plan , both times we faced an opener recently  we weren't prepared  ...

[Craig Arko]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I couldn't disagree with this more. 

How many less breaking balls does the leadoff hitter see? 

How many times does the leadoff hitter actually hit leadoff in a game? 

If Aaron Judge was the nine hitter: Would he see more strikes because he is the nine hitter or would they still pitch him like he is... I don't know... Aaron Judge?

 Cleanup hitters MIGHT feel?

Leadoff hitters MIGHT feel? 

Confidence? Consistent Routine? 

I couldn't disagree more. No offense intended but I'll file this writing next to the article I read about mermaids written by a teenager who just watched the movie Splash. That might be harsh but I know there are a lot of people who believe this stuff. To all those people. There are no mermaids.  

If your team goes 1-2-3 in the 1st inning. Your cleanup hitter is now a leadoff hitter. If 6,7,8 in the order load the bases... your nine hitter is now a cleanup hitter.

You still have to grab a bat and swing it when it's your turn. Each at bat will have a new context based on the conditions that exist at the time.

The leadoff hitter is only guaranteed to hit lead off one time but the leadoff hitter is guaranteed to have more plate appearances so why not put your hottest hitter in the leadoff spot? If Gallo is 0 for 27... I think it's ok to move him out of the leadoff spot.   

You think Correa has bounced around in the lineup. I find it ridiculous that Carlos Correa remained near the top of the order despite a two month slump.

He couldn't be moved to 8th in the order when he has forgotten how to hit and then back to the 3 spot when he started to show that he remembers how to hit.

Would it be a blow to the confidence of Carlos Correa if he moved down in the order? Tell him to go look at his contract... it might restore some confidence. 

Is it a bigger confidence blow to move a vet in the batting order or is it a bigger confidence blow to send a rookie like Wallner down to the minors and recall a Garlick over him? Who should be better equipped to deal with a crisis of confidence... the guy making 35 million or the rookie being sent to St. Paul? 

 Max Kepler was our leadoff hitter... should he still be there for the intrinsic benefit... whatever that is. 

If Buxton hit 1st on Monday, 6th on Tuesday, Bench on Wednesday, 2nd on Friday, 9th on Saturday and 3rd on Sunday. Would that really blow his mind or would he start to understand... Hey... I got to hit the ball no matter where I hit in the order. 

What if you decide that Correa is your 3rd hitter and you lock him in like you suggest. What happens when his heel hurts and Farmer has to play at SS for a day. Does Farmer just go into the 3 spot no questions asked? You'd have to because if Farmer doesn't go into the 3 spot... you'd have to move your 6 spot guy into the 3 hole and now the apple cart is all turned over.

Mermaids. 

 

Nailed it. Although reports of mermaids may turn out to be manatees, so partially real. :)

[Hans Birkeland]

2 hours ago, Andrew Bryz-Gornia said:

If you're going to say that leadoff hitters see fewer breaking balls and every other statement you said in that paragraph, there should either be a link to evidence that it's true or you should be citing the numbers that show it's true. Otherwise, it just sounds like old school baseball wisdom that has been debunked as more data was discovered.

If you want evidence that leadoff hitters and nine hitters see more strikes I'm sure you can find that on Fangraphs or something but there's a difference between having Derek Jeter look good defensively and the numbers saying otherwise, and knowing logically that pitchers don't want to walk the nine hitter and they don't want to face the two hitter with men on base. I'm sure there are a few pitchers (Sergio Romo) that have better command of their breaking pitches than anything else they throw, but those guys are few and far between.

Mainly I'm just happy to be perceived on the scout side of the scout vs stat debate. 14 year old me would be appalled!

[Hans Birkeland]

5 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I couldn't disagree with this more. 

How many less breaking balls does the leadoff hitter see? 

How many times does the leadoff hitter actually hit leadoff in a game? 

If Aaron Judge was the nine hitter: Would he see more strikes because he is the nine hitter or would they still pitch him like he is... I don't know... Aaron Judge?

 Cleanup hitters MIGHT feel?

Leadoff hitters MIGHT feel? 

Confidence? Consistent Routine? 

I couldn't disagree more. No offense intended but I'll file this writing next to the article I read about mermaids written by a teenager who just watched the movie Splash. That might be harsh but I know there are a lot of people who believe this stuff. To all those people. There are no mermaids.  

If your team goes 1-2-3 in the 1st inning. Your cleanup hitter is now a leadoff hitter. If 6,7,8 in the order load the bases... your nine hitter is now a cleanup hitter.

You still have to grab a bat and swing it when it's your turn. Each at bat will have a new context based on the conditions that exist at the time.

The leadoff hitter is only guaranteed to hit lead off one time but the leadoff hitter is guaranteed to have more plate appearances so why not put your hottest hitter in the leadoff spot? If Gallo is 0 for 27... I think it's ok to move him out of the leadoff spot.   

You think Correa has bounced around in the lineup. I find it ridiculous that Carlos Correa remained near the top of the order despite a two month slump.

He couldn't be moved to 8th in the order when he has forgotten how to hit and then back to the 3 spot when he started to show that he remembers how to hit.

Would it be a blow to the confidence of Carlos Correa if he moved down in the order? Tell him to go look at his contract... it might restore some confidence. 

Is it a bigger confidence blow to move a vet in the batting order or is it a bigger confidence blow to send a rookie like Wallner down to the minors and recall a Garlick over him? Who should be better equipped to deal with a crisis of confidence... the guy making 35 million or the rookie being sent to St. Paul? 

 Max Kepler was our leadoff hitter... should he still be there for the intrinsic benefit... whatever that is. 

If Buxton hit 1st on Monday, 6th on Tuesday, Bench on Wednesday, 2nd on Friday, 9th on Saturday and 3rd on Sunday. Would that really blow his mind or would he start to understand... Hey... I got to hit the ball no matter where I hit in the order. 

What if you decide that Correa is your 3rd hitter and you lock him in like you suggest. What happens when his heel hurts and Farmer has to play at SS for a day. Does Farmer just go into the 3 spot no questions asked? You'd have to because if Farmer doesn't go into the 3 spot... you'd have to move your 6 spot guy into the 3 hole and now the apple cart is all turned over.

Mermaids. 

 

If it was against a lefty I'd feel good about putting Farmer third in a pinch. But otherwise you try not to upend the apple cart as much as possible. If he's on the IL look at putting Lewis in the three spot. If it's a couple days maybe try Larnach or Julien. Keeping guys loose and confident is the goal. If prioritizing that is believing in mermaids I got nothing for ya.

[chpettit19]

How many more fastballs do leadoff hitters see? How many more strikes do 9 hole hitters see? How about guys hitting in front of the team's best hitters? Do teams really attack a hitter differently if he's in the leadoff spot as opposed to the 3 hole? If I know you can't hit a slider (MLB teams know that kind of stuff) I'm not going to say "oh dang, he's hitting leadoff today, better throw him the fastball he mashes instead of the slider."

I don't know the stats to the first 3 questions I asked, but I'd guess they're all way more dependent on the hitter than the lineup spot. And, the "lineup protection" myth has been debunked for a long time. Pitchers actually work harder to get the guy out in front of a star. Throwing them fastballs just to avoid walking them isn't what happens.

[Hans Birkeland]

20 hours ago, Markdumont25 said:

I think the best example of this in recent history is when the rays pulled Blake Snell when he was absolutely dealing in a must win world series game. At that point there is no long term, there's only the current moment and you need to stick with what's working right now. I don't hate on Rocco as much as some others on this site, but I do think his biggest  weakness is not being able to recognize when to push the spreadsheet aside and make a common sense decision based on what's happening in real time.

I almost mentioned this Snell hook, a great example of what I'm talking about from a pitching perspective.

[chpettit19]

20 hours ago, Markdumont25 said:

Spot on. I'm reminded of the once upon a time I played poker professionally. With poker, there's a few different ways of playing; GTO (essentially analytics) and exploitative (making situational adjustments base on the exact opponent and other acute factors). As long as you're interpreting them correctly, the numbers are the numbers and in long-term situations playing an analytical style will reap benefits. However, there's always exceptions to the rule and being able to recognize situations when it makes sense to deviate from the numbers will make you even more profitable overall. I think Rocco and the twins overall have become too reliant on the numbers and not willing to pivot when the situation calls for it, to their detriment. I think the best example of this in recent history is when the rays pulled Blake Snell when he was absolutely dealing in a must win world series game. At that point there is no long term, there's only the current moment and you need to stick with what's working right now. I don't hate on Rocco as much as some others on this site, but I do think his biggest  weakness is not being able to recognize when to push the spreadsheet aside and make a common sense decision based on what's happening in real time.

 

5 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

I almost mentioned this Snell hook, a great example of what I'm talking about from a pitching perspective.

What about the Mets not following the numbers and taking Matt Harvey out in game 5? That didn't work out so well, did it?

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

If it was against a lefty I'd feel good about putting Farmer third in a pinch. But otherwise you try not to upend the apple cart as much as possible. If he's on the IL look at putting Lewis in the three spot. If it's a couple days maybe try Larnach or Julien. Keeping guys loose and confident is the goal. If prioritizing that is believing in mermaids I got nothing for ya.

The mermaid thing was just me being me. I'm a good guy at heart. I should have put a smiley face by it. 

I understand that you feel the way you feel... and I will also concede that some managers tend to be static in their batting order assignments so you are clearly not alone. 

But... what I'll consistently fail to understand is...

If a guy hits in the 2 spot and moves to the 5 spot... Why does it do damage to the player? 

How does batting every day in the 2 spot create some sort of looseness or confidence? 

IMO... Lineups tend to become static because managers are trying to get the best hitters at the top of the lineup and hitters toward the bottom. But... if a player must be moved... why is that an issue? Or if you give one of your top players the day off... why do you have to take that bench player and slide him into a top 3 position to keep the integrity of the lineup intact. 

The 2023 Twins... In my opinion... Have role played themselves into wasting a pretty damn good pitching staff. 

 

[Hans Birkeland]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 

What about the Mets not following the numbers and taking Matt Harvey out in game 5? That didn't work out so well, did it?

That was in the ninth, not the sixth. Snell was pulled with 73 pitches. Harvey gave up a leadoff walk and still wasn't taken out with over 100 pitches.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, Hans Birkeland said:

That was in the ninth, not the sixth. Snell was pulled with 73 pitches. Harvey gave up a leadoff walk and still wasn't taken out with over 100 pitches.

So? The numbers matter after the 7th, but not before? You want to be in the scout side of the scout vs analyst debate, why does the inning matter? They went with the scout side and ignored the numbers side and they got bit.

[Hans Birkeland]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

So? The numbers matter after the 7th, but not before? You want to be in the scout side of the scout vs analyst debate, why does the inning matter? They went with the scout side and ignored the numbers side and they got bit.

I think logically it made a lot more sense to take out Harvey than Snell. The Mets had prime Jeurys Familia sitting there, the Rays were bringing in Nick Anderson, who had given up runs in six straight appearances to that point in the postseason. 

I think both sides miss the plot with regularity, The Rays got burned by being too stat-oriented, the Mets got burned by being too old-school.

[chpettit19]

Just now, Hans Birkeland said:

I think logically it made a lot more sense to take out Harvey than Snell. The Mets had prime Jeurys Familia sitting there, the Rays were bringing in Nick Anderson, who had given up runs in six straight appearances to that point in the postseason. 

I think both sides miss the plot with regularity, The Rays got burned by being too stat-oriented, the Mets got burned by being too old-school.

Totally fair. I think that's just saying fans need to chill on manager decisions, though. We have a tendency to just assume that if they'd made the opposite decision the results would have been opposite. Who's to say Snell wouldn't have gotten lit up if he'd stayed in? Or that Familia wouldn't have gotten lit up if he went in? Mo lost a game 7 for the Yankees. Joe Nathan gave up the big ARod bomb. Mo also blew game 4 against the Sox. The best laid plans go wrong all the time. And having them go wrong doesn't mean a different decision would've gone right. But humans have this weird need to blame people when things don't go the way they like. Which allows us all to form wonderful communities like TD, so I guess it's not all bad ☺️

[Jocko87]

20 hours ago, Markdumont25 said:

Yea, I see what you're saying. There is so much data out there that just about any decision could be justified by "analytics". But I'm saying even when the numbers are very clear in pointing to a course of action, those numbers still operate on a long-term scale and sometimes it makes sense to ignore those numbers. For example, if Kepler was 18/25 against a righty pitcher You might still want to keep him on the bench when Royce is mashing and Kepler is slumping. Even though the number support bringing him in, If you look beyond them to the current situation it might not be the right choice. I don't think Rocco does that enough.

I've been preaching this for quite a while now.  The numbers are the numbers but analytics is knowing which numbers to use is which situation.  Everyone has all the numbers but the good analytical teams are using them better.  It's really that simple.  The long term numbers will still indicate the same but short term variables will override in the current situation.

I do think Rocco could do more of that but I think he would argue that he does.  He just looks at different data than we can.  The San Fran game is a good example.  Its easy to think the moves were just L/R split based but in his comments he said that down 4-0 in the first we needed to get runs quickly etc.  Unsaid was, "this offense is really struggling and I have to do everything possible to get anything" the short term and long term agreed but the short term changed the urgency.  If the offense was clicking 4-0 wouldn't be an issue that needed addressed immediately.  Lots of factors that we don't even think about in the managerial decisions. 

[chpettit19]

30 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The mermaid thing was just me being me. I'm a good guy at heart. I should have put a smiley face by it. 

I understand that you feel the way you feel... and I will also concede that some managers tend to be static in their batting order assignments so you are clearly not alone. 

But... what I'll consistently fail to understand is...

If a guy hits in the 2 spot and moves to the 5 spot... Why does it do damage to the player? 

How does batting every day in the 2 spot create some sort of looseness or confidence? 

IMO... Lineups tend to become static because managers are trying to get the best hitters at the top of the lineup and hitters toward the bottom. But... if a player must be moved... why is that an issue? Or if you give one of your top players the day off... why do you have to take that bench player and slide him into a top 3 position to keep the integrity of the lineup intact. 

The 2023 Twins... In my opinion... Have role played themselves into wasting a pretty damn good pitching staff. 

 

Lineup position isn't what creates the consistency people are looking for. Being in the lineup or not can, though. MLB players have gameday routines they do no matter what. They don't do anything different to prepare for hitting 1st, 5th, or 9th. And they don't change their general approaches to their ABs either. Joey Gallo hitting leadoff doesn't suddenly think "dang, I need to cut down my swing and slap it the other way like Arraez since I'm hitting leadoff." He still goes up there looking to launch balls into the seats. Pitchers don't throw Buxton fastballs instead of sliders simply because he's in the leadoff spot, or if he were hitting in front of peak Bonds. Hitters approach ABs the same, and pitchers attack each hitter the same no matter where they are in the lineup.

Lineup construction is about the manager putting the right type of hitters in the right order. How well Rocco does that, and how different the hitters really are, is up for debate. If you have a lineup full of the same type of hitter, the order doesn't matter beyond who's hot, and who's not. 

Luis Arraez has hit in the 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, and 9 holes this year. Primarily 1st or 3rd, though. But he has an OPS of .916 in the 1 hole. His OPS in the 3 hole? The drastically different .918. His OBP in the 1 hole is .442 vs .440 in the 3 hole. Slugging is .474 as leadoff, and .478 in the 3 hole. Guys don't change who they are depending on where they are in the lineup. It's just fans attempting to explain away struggling bats.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Lineup position isn't what creates the consistency people are looking for. Being in the lineup or not can, though. MLB players have gameday routines they do no matter what. They don't do anything different to prepare for hitting 1st, 5th, or 9th. And they don't change their general approaches to their ABs either. Joey Gallo hitting leadoff doesn't suddenly think "dang, I need to cut down my swing and slap it the other way like Arraez since I'm hitting leadoff." He still goes up there looking to launch balls into the seats. Pitchers don't throw Buxton fastballs instead of sliders simply because he's in the leadoff spot, or if he were hitting in front of peak Bonds. Hitters approach ABs the same, and pitchers attack each hitter the same no matter where they are in the lineup.

Lineup construction is about the manager putting the right type of hitters in the right order. How well Rocco does that, and how different the hitters really are, is up for debate. If you have a lineup full of the same type of hitter, the order doesn't matter beyond who's hot, and who's not. 

Luis Arraez has hit in the 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, and 9 holes this year. Primarily 1st or 3rd, though. But he has an OPS of .916 in the 1 hole. His OPS in the 3 hole? The drastically different .918. His OBP in the 1 hole is .442 vs .440 in the 3 hole. Slugging is .474 as leadoff, and .478 in the 3 hole. Guys don't change who they are depending on where they are in the lineup. It's just fans attempting to explain away struggling bats.

I agree... my response was triggered by the batting order portion of the article. 

However, you know me... I'm going to have some thoughts on what you are saying about playing time distribution. 😉

For a later day... because right now... I'm going over to a different TD thread to complain about Kirilloff sitting against left handers. 

 

[Craig Arko]

42 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree... my response was triggered by the batting order portion of the article. 

However, you know me... I'm going to have some thoughts on what you are saying about playing time distribution. 😉

For a later day... because right now... I'm going over to a different TD thread to complain about Kirilloff sitting against left handers. 

 

Today, Kiriloff is not sitting against the left hander. So go catch up on some mermaid lore. :)

[Riverbrian]

27 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Today, Kiriloff is not sitting against the left hander. So go catch up on some mermaid lore. :)

[Aerodeliria]

I am not pondering fastballs and curveballs here, but I have played on many teams in my life. Some managers switched the order every single time. It made me uncomfortable. Some kept the order the same. Whether I was first or ninth, I felt at ease knowing where I would hit. I was not a professional, so take this with a grain of salt, but for me, I would contend that if you know where you are going to hit in the lineup...it matters...it makes you more relaxed.