Fangraphs ranking up

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins minor league rankings are up today....

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/minnesota-twins-top-36-prospects-2023/

 

[chpettit19]

30 current and future fielding grades for Julien. That's, uh, not good.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

30 current and future fielding grades for Julien. That's, uh, not good.

Ya.,...but clearly they love his hitting, given his overall grade......No idea what they can do with him at this point, other than hope.......

[Dman]

Really surprised to see Festa in the top 5 and I think they said in their top 100.  I know he is good but I just didn't see him as "that" good.  Really love the detailed write up's.

[Mike Sixel]

27 minutes ago, Dman said:

Really surprised to see Festa in the top 5 and I think they said in their top 100.  I know he is good but I just didn't see him as "that" good.  Really love the detailed write up's.

The details are amazing, given they do this for 30 teams!

I learned a lot.....

[2wins87]

A decent amount of the content was already out there with their imminent big leaguers writeup and updated top 100. 

But the writeup that stood out to me was for Yasser Mercedes.  Longenhagen seems very effusive about how he's looked in instructs this spring so I'm excited to see how he does in the complex league when it starts up next week.

[DJL44]

Things I learned

Julien is not a 2B, but they keep playing him there

Martin is not a SS, but they keep playing him there

Rodriguez is not a CF, but they keep playing him there

 

[Mike Sixel]

9 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Things I learned

Julien is not a 2B, but they keep playing him there

Martin is not a SS, but they keep playing him there

Rodriguez is not a CF, but they keep playing him there

 

The one I don't get is Martin.....the others? Where else are they going to play Julien? ERod likely isn't a CF, but playing him there does no one any harm, imo.

[bird]

Thanks for the heads-up, Mike.

Some random observations:

Last year's list had 40 prospects at 35+ or higher. Given the fact that we traded five guys off that list for MLB assets, and given the fact that another nine guys were dropped, and given the fact that another five guys graduated, I'm really pleasantly surprised that the system has produced 36 prospects at 35+ or higher. That bodes well. Lots of exciting new names, especially from the IFA ranks.

The prominent drops were Cavaco, Sabato, Urbina, Enlow, and Soularie. I'm disappointed that Enlow is not grading out well.

Personally, when I compare systems, I ignore prospects with less than a 40FV. And yet, two 35+ names off last year's list are contributing in MLB now: Jovani Moran and shockingly Yennier Cano at age 29.

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, bird said:

Thanks for the heads-up, Mike.

Some random observations:

Last year's list had 40 prospects at 35+ or higher. Given the fact that we traded five guys off that list for MLB assets, and given the fact that another nine guys were dropped, and given the fact that another five guys graduated, I'm really pleasantly surprised that the system has produced 36 prospects at 35+ or higher. That bodes well. Lots of exciting new names, especially from the IFA ranks.

The prominent drops were Cavaco, Sabato, Urbina, Enlow, and Soularie. I'm disappointed that Enlow is not grading out well.

Personally, when I compare systems, I ignore prospects with less than a 40FV. And yet, two 35+ names off last year's list are contributing in MLB now: Jovani Moran and shockingly Yennier Cano at age 29.

I think Enlow will be a 40 by the end of the year, but his velocity needs to pick back up to be effective at the MLB level. 

Those first two names off the list are killers for sure....killers. Could have been some great players there instead.

[Minny505]

Longenhagens seems much more realistic about Prielipp than the prospect rankers here at TD, essentially flipping him with Festa on their list.

I like how they tier the list. It helps to understand that 8-12 are rather interchangable, but 7 is clearly a slight step up, while 6 is a full step up. 

Longenhagens is a freak. It's crazy listening to him converse as he seems to remember every detail about 1000+ prospects in MiLB at any time. Just freak.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

30 current and future fielding grades for Julien. That's, uh, not good.

Also, based on the eye test, accurate.

[Mike Sixel]

19 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Longenhagens seems much more realistic about Prielipp than the prospect rankers here at TD, essentially flipping him with Festa on their list.

I like how they tier the list. It helps to understand that 8-12 are rather interchangable, but 7 is clearly a slight step up, while 6 is a full step up. 

Longenhagens is a freak. It's crazy listening to him converse as he seems to remember every detail about 1000+ prospects in MiLB at any time. Just freak.

Preilipp is a great risk by the Twins, even if it doesn't work. It was a good decision. I think he could pitch out of the pen this year, and I'd consider having him be there (even in the minors) all year, just to build him back up slowly. 

[Minny505]

49 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Preilipp is a great risk by the Twins, even if it doesn't work. It was a good decision. I think he could pitch out of the pen this year, and I'd consider having him be there (even in the minors) all year, just to build him back up slowly. 

Agreed on the risk. It's just really hard to rank a guy at 5 or 6 that is in his position, when there are a handful of arms with a similar ceiling and a "higher" floor.

I put higher in quotes cuz there is no such thing as a pitching prospect😂

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

The one I don't get is Martin.....the others?

Quote

"he spent most of 2022 at shortstop, which he doesn’t have the range, hands, or actions to play" - the article

Fangraphs didn't get it either. I think he's a leadoff hitter and left fielder.

Julien should move to first base. He might be good enough there to stick. I think he's playing 2B this season because they need someone there on the depth chart. We've already seen Polanco hit the injured list twice.

 

[DJL44]

Woods-Richardson is having a disappointing season but it's worth noting that he's younger than Festa and essentially the same age as Prielipp. There's still plenty of time for him to develop.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Fangraphs didn't get it either. I think he's a leadoff hitter and left fielder.

Julien should move to first base. He might be good enough there to stick. I think he's playing 2B this season because they need someone there on the depth chart. We've already seen Polanco hit the injured list twice.

 

I just think AK is your 1B, or Miranda....but Julien might work there too. 

I'd prefer Martin at 2B or LF, no idea why they keep throwing him out at short. 

[Jocko87]

Love seeing the Lopez/Arraez throw ins relatively high on this list too. 

[raindog]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Rodriguez is not a CF, but they keep playing him there

Seems like they think his defense is pretty solid there. 

"For one, when Rodriguez first began to get noticeably bigger and stronger throughout 2020 and 2021, it became less clear whether he’d be able to play center field, and the torn meniscus he suffered in 2022 clouded things further. He still looks really good out there. He’s not a burner, but his reads and routes are decisive and advanced, especially his comfort going back on balls over his head and into the gaps."

[weitz41]

8 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Love seeing the Lopez/Arraez throw ins relatively high on this list too. 

I was about to say that as well. #12 and #21 are some pretty solid throw ins. Good to see so many IFA on the list. Hopefully a few work out, It's been a while since any have.

[ashbury]

8 minutes ago, raindog said:

Seems like they think his defense is pretty solid there. 

"For one, when Rodriguez first began to get noticeably bigger and stronger throughout 2020 and 2021, it became less clear whether he’d be able to play center field, and the torn meniscus he suffered in 2022 clouded things further. He still looks really good out there. He’s not a burner, but his reads and routes are decisive and advanced, especially his comfort going back on balls over his head and into the gaps."

After seeing Willi Castro fail to be decisive on that popup to short left the other day, this description is welcome for our prospect.

[goulik]

Surprising to me are all the names set to arrive in 2023… how are we going to get Severino, Brink, Peguera up with all the other 2023 arrivals and current 40 man roster etc… etc…???

[FlyingFinn]

They sure don't like Michael Helman. Thought maybe it was age until I saw that they have a 30 year-old (Brink) on the list.

I'm a huge Festa fan but am surprised he is in the top 5. His numbers this year are mediocre. But he is still hitting 98 mph and they must like his pitches. 

Balazovic has just about fallen off the charts. How long can the Twins keep him on the 40 man roster. Also surprised Hidalgo isn't on this list.

[FlyingFinn]

I compared TD's latest rankings to Fangraphs (note Fangraphs has Varland at #4 and TD said he's ineligible to be a prospect now). Fangraphs is higher on Festa (5 vs. 8), Castro, Chivelli, Schobel, and Henriquez (all aren't in TD's top 20). TD is higher on E-Rod (3 vs. 6), SWR (6 vs. 11), Mercedes (10 vs. 13), Miller by a lot (13 vs. 18), Headrick (15 vs. 20), Balazovic (14 vs. 34), Jose Rodriguez (18 vs. 30), Severino (19 vs. 29), Enlow and Helman (not ranked). Anyone know what Enlow is throwing his fastball at now?

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, goulik said:

how are we going to get Severino, Brink, Peguera up???

I wouldn't worry much about that.

[jmlease1]

It's an interesting analysis. I don't always agree with some of FanGraphs methodologies in prospect evaluation but it's certainly reasonable. And I really have no way to properly evaluate the guys who are in instructional leagues. Thought the most salient point was the evaluation of the system as whole as being deep, despite the trades of prospect capital that have been made. They might have less high-end talent than some, but have a lot of guys who can develop and progress.

I think they're a little bit off on Martin; indicators from the Twins looks like they're comfortable with him anywhere in the OF and are trying to see whether or not he can stick on the dirt. I think it's likely he would be playing less SS this season, but he's been injured so that's been off the table. It's a real shame that he's been hurt this season, because it was looking like he'd gotten himself back on track in the AFL.

 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

23 hours ago, goulik said:

Surprising to me are all the names set to arrive in 2023… how are we going to get Severino, Brink, Peguera up with all the other 2023 arrivals and current 40 man roster etc… etc…???

I think I've read that a big part of Fangraphs' listed "ETAs" is eligibility dates for the Rule V draft or 40-man roster addition. Severino and Brink may be listed with 2023 ETA because they've been Rule V-eligible already.