Consensus MLB Draft Board V2

[Jamie Cameron]

The Twins are in a great position ahead of the 2023 MLB Draft. They hold four top 100 picks (5, 34, 49, and 82) and have the fourth most money to spend ($14,345,600) despite having the thirteenth worst record in MLB in 2022. Plus, 2023 is one of the deeper draft classes in recent years. Let's take a look at some of the prospects available to teams in July.

Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp

How to Use This Tool
This is hopefully easy to navigate. For a full explainer on the what, why, and how, here’s the explainer for V1. For each ranked player, you’ll see position, age, ranking, school, first name, last name, height, weight, handedness (S=switch), future value (not yet), and writeup. Every top 100 player has a writeup, if you hover over the report icon for that player, it’ll give you notes on players tools, strengths, areas of growth, and recent performance.

What’s New for V2?
Here’s some brief notes about V2 of the Consensus Board:

• The rankings are based on a consensus from 10 draft boards that provide a range of evaluations from well-known industry standard boards, to more data-driven boards.
• I DID NOT update writeups for the players who remained in the top 100 from the beginning of May. I’ll update them a final time on a rolling basis between June and July.
• I added ten more writeups for prospects who moved into the consensus top 100 since the beginning of May.
• If you see a prospect outside the top 100 with a writeup, it means they’ve fallen out (I’m not adding new reports outside the top 100).
• Finally, I color coded the top 75 players to track risers and fallers between V1 and V2. Specifically:
  • Light green - moved up 5-9 spots
  • Dark green - moved up 10+ spots
  • Light red - moved down 5-9 spots
  • Dark red - moved down 10+ spots

What’s Next?
The Consensus Board will get one more big update, to be published at the beginning of July. Additionally, there will be updates to the notes of the most significant prospects, accounting for their end of season performance (particularly for college players), in addition to future value grades added for prospects in the final version of the board.

The final rankings will also be published as articles at all three sites. I recognize that some folks may prefer to consume rankings as an article, so I’ll publish them with write ups as part of a 2 or 3 part series in the final week leading up to the draft, working to get players highlights added to those pieces.

If you have questions or feedback about the process or generation of the board, please use the comments. I want readers at all three sites to feel well-informed and excited about the draft and the influx of talent to their favorite teams. Whether it's an idea to make the rankings better, catching a mistake (I’m sure there are some), or a comment on who you want your team to draft, we’d love to hear from you. Jeremy Nygaard and I will be working to provide y’all with comprehensive draft coverage as July gets closer, so let’s chop it up!
2023 Consensus MLB Draft Board V2

 

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[Doctor Gast]

ThanK you you both so very much! for the work you put in this, I really enjoyed it. Cole Carrigg is my personal favorite, Just because of the team's need in the OF, he was switched off catching. The pundits have docked him believing he has no position but he can literately play anywhere & excel. Because of the lack of quality college catchers available and our need, he could be a steal at #75

[Cory Engelhardt]

Such a great way to start the week! Thank you for the work you guys put in to this.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Wow!  This is an amazing tool.  Thanks for making this happen!

[wabene]

What are the three sites you mention? Twins Daily, the Brewers and.... 

[Jamie Cameron]

21 minutes ago, wabene said:

What are the three sites you mention? Twins Daily, the Brewers and.... 

Northside Baseball, Cubs!

[wabene]

8 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Northside Baseball, Cubs!

The Empire is expanding

[Dman]

It kind of feels like the top 5 is the top 5 right now.  Other than Crews at number 1 the order could go any number of ways but odds are the college guys go 1, 2, 3, with the two high schoolers left as college players tend to move faster.  I think that leaves the Twins picking Jenkins or Clark.  There are rumblings out there though about Teel.  Catchers that can hit are hard to find so even if his bat might not be quite as good as the top 5, his hit tool could be very good to elite for a catcher.  Other than that I think things stays the same unless some bad injury causes someone to fall.

For me I would be happy with any one of the top 5 players.  Not sure about Teel yet but I would be OK with that pick as well I think.  Clark is still my preferred pick if he falls to 5.  Will have to wait and see if things change.  They sure did last year.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Dman said:

It kind of feels like the top 5 is the top 5 right now.  Other than Crews at number 1 the order could go any number of ways but odds are the college guys go 1, 2, 3, with the two high schoolers left as college players tend to move faster.  I think that leaves the Twins picking Jenkins or Clark.  There are rumblings out there though about Teel.  Catchers that can hit are hard to find so even if his bat might not be quite as good as the top 5, his hit tool could very good to elite for a catcher.  Other than that I think things stays the same unless some bad injury causes someone to fall.

For me I would be happy with any one of the top 5 players.  Not sure about Teel yet but I would be OK with that pick as well I think.  Clark is still my preferred pick if he falls to 5.  Will have to wait and see if things change.  They sure did last year.

Skenes, Clark, Dollander for me, but I always want an elite arm at the top, and am not usually right......but I haven't exactly loved their HS SS picks lately.......so I'm scared of the two HS guys.

[2wins87]

4 minutes ago, Dman said:

It kind of feels like the top 5 is the top 5 right now.  Other than Crews at number 1 the order could go any number of ways but odds are the college guys go 1, 2, 3, with the two high schoolers left as college players tend to move faster.  I think that leaves the Twins picking Jenkins or Clark.  There are rumblings out there though about Teel.  Catchers that can hit are hard to find so even if his bat might not be quite as good as the top 5, his hit tool could very good to elite for a catcher.  Other than that I think things stays the same unless some bad injury causes someone to fall.

For me I would be happy with any one of the top 5 players.  Not sure about Teel yet but I would be OK with that pick as well I think.  Clark is still my preferred pick if he falls to 5.  Will have to wait and see if things change.  They sure did last year.

I pretty much agree with this and I'd say Skenes is feeling pretty unlikely to get past 3 at this point as well. Although the top of the draft always seems to be a little less settled than we think prior to the draft (Just look at the Rangers picking Rocker  3rd and adding a bit of chaos into the top 10 last year).

I've seen Langford mocked to the Twins a couple times, and I could certainly see it happening as there are always a few teams that are looking for toolsy HS kids.  Not sure about the tendencies of the teams ahead of us this year.  I think that might be my preferred, somewhat realistic scenario right now, though I will be happy with either Jenkins or Clark as well.

It is kind of hard to see the scenario where the Twins have a choice between 2 or more of the top 5 but there probably is some universe where one of the top 4 (probably the Rangers) decides to get weird with their pick.

I'm getting more interested in the comp round pick.  I think it could be a good year to get some of the left over HS talent that drops out of the first round.  I could also see one of the big college hitters like Wilken, Hurley, Davis, Schanuel, or Ledbetter making it to the Twins, and it's kind of hard to see this regime passing on one of those bats.

[Dman]

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Skenes, Clark, Dollander for me, but I always want an elite arm at the top, and am not usually right......but I haven't exactly loved their HS SS picks lately.......so I'm scared of the two HS guys.

I Agree High Schoolers are tougher to predict as the level of competition varies and Pro Ball is a different game.  Still there are those that standout and work out.  Projection is also tougher.  Look at Nick Gordon I don't think they pick him at number 5  if they knew he would stay that lean?  He did hit all the way up though so they got that part right.  

So yeah I get what you are saying but so far this is where the pundits have them.  I hope Skene's falls and I would take him over Clark in a heartbeat.  I just can't see him making it to number 5 right now.  Then again I didn't see Lee making it to 8. I am struggling on what to think about Dollander.  He has scared me off of grabbing him at number 5 but I also believe whatever might be broken can likely be fixed.  Just not sure what to think there yet but I would be be happy with any of the guys you named.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, Dman said:

I Agree High Schoolers are tougher to predict as the level of competition varies and Pro Ball is a different game.  Still there are those that standout and work out.  Projection is also tougher.  Look at Nick Gordon I don't think they pick him at number 5  if they knew he would stay that lean?  He did hit all the way up though so they got that part right.  

So yeah I get what you are saying but so far this is where the pundits have them.  I hope Skene's falls and I would take him over Clark in a heartbeat.  I just can't see him making it to number 5 right now.  Then again I didn't see Lee making it to 8. I am struggling on what to think about Dollander.  He has scared me off of grabbing him at number 5 but I also believe whatever might be broken can likely be fixed.  Just not sure what to think there yet but I would be be happy with any of the guys you named.

I wanted Turner so much in that draft....oh well.....

I have no idea what's up with Dollander, obviously, but he was projected 1:1, and now is around 1:7....it's not like he's REALLY fallen, just fallen, if you know what I mean.

I also get these two HS players stand out.....I'd be good with any of the top 5-10 at this point, I think. 

[Dman]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

I wanted Turner so much in that draft....oh well.....

I have no idea what's up with Dollander, obviously, but he was projected 1:1, and now is around 1:7....it's not like he's REALLY fallen, just fallen, if you know what I mean.

I also get these two HS players stand out.....I'd be good with any of the top 5-10 at this point, I think. 

Yeah I really wanted Turner as well.  I assume they didn't think his power projection was good enough?  And he had been injured a bit IIRC. I was a huge Turner Fan as well.  He was my dream pick for them in that draft as I wasn't into the power\slugging aspects of the game back then. His ability to play short get on base and steal bases was what I wanted to see but alas I guess they felt maybe more upside in the end with Gordon and that turned out poorly.

I also was hoping Rodon would fall in that draft but he didn't.  I wasn't a fan of Nola and he worked really well as a down the line pick.  It is easy to get fooled in the draft and we only get bits of info so hard to make decisions on the little blurbs we do get.  

To your point I have been more comfortable with the College picks at least early on but I can see where high school picks can provide superior value later in the draft when a lot of the elite college players are off the board.  Still looking at Holliday from last year which I thought might be a reach and he is killing it so projection at the HS level can be done but I still agree with you that it is riskier. 

[Jamie Cameron]

1 hour ago, Dman said:

It kind of feels like the top 5 is the top 5 right now.  Other than Crews at number 1 the order could go any number of ways but odds are the college guys go 1, 2, 3, with the two high schoolers left as college players tend to move faster.  I think that leaves the Twins picking Jenkins or Clark.  There are rumblings out there though about Teel.  Catchers that can hit are hard to find so even if his bat might not be quite as good as the top 5, his hit tool could be very good to elite for a catcher.  Other than that I think things stays the same unless some bad injury causes someone to fall.

For me I would be happy with any one of the top 5 players.  Not sure about Teel yet but I would be OK with that pick as well I think.  Clark is still my preferred pick if he falls to 5.  Will have to wait and see if things change.  They sure did last year.

I think Teel is going to make it a top 6 when it's all said and done. The bar for producing value is so much lower there and the fact that he can run too (doesn't steal a lot but is fast) adds more. I'm expecting chaos when we finally get to July. This time last year, we were all talking about how one of the consensus top 6 wouldn't get to the Twins and they ended up with a choice of Lee, Parada, or Collier lol

[Jamie Cameron]

52 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

I pretty much agree with this and I'd say Skenes is feeling pretty unlikely to get past 3 at this point as well. Although the top of the draft always seems to be a little less settled than we think prior to the draft (Just look at the Rangers picking Rocker  3rd and adding a bit of chaos into the top 10 last year).

I've seen Langford mocked to the Twins a couple times, and I could certainly see it happening as there are always a few teams that are looking for toolsy HS kids.  Not sure about the tendencies of the teams ahead of us this year.  I think that might be my preferred, somewhat realistic scenario right now, though I will be happy with either Jenkins or Clark as well.

It is kind of hard to see the scenario where the Twins have a choice between 2 or more of the top 5 but there probably is some universe where one of the top 4 (probably the Rangers) decides to get weird with their pick.

I'm getting more interested in the comp round pick.  I think it could be a good year to get some of the left over HS talent that drops out of the first round.  I could also see one of the big college hitters like Wilken, Hurley, Davis, Schanuel, or Ledbetter making it to the Twins, and it's kind of hard to see this regime passing on one of those bats.

Great point about the comp pick and I love the targets you picked out. I think Davis will be a top 15 pick but the ones you mention are great 'Twinsy' profiles.

[Jamie Cameron]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I wanted Turner so much in that draft....oh well.....

I have no idea what's up with Dollander, obviously, but he was projected 1:1, and now is around 1:7....it's not like he's REALLY fallen, just fallen, if you know what I mean.

I also get these two HS players stand out.....I'd be good with any of the top 5-10 at this point, I think. 

Seen quite a few threads on Dollander that suggest his issues are more mechanical than anything else. I'm anti-pitching with a top 5 pick in general unless it's a truly outstanding prospect, and i think only Skenes fits that bill.

[jishfish]

If anyone is looking for a shortlist of potential college hitters the Twins might take, I would recommend looking that the BAGS+ data on ProspectsLive. Looking back this regime has taken a top 20 ranked hitter by BAGS+ every single year since they took over. Maybe that should be obvious since this regime loves college hitters, but some of their picks that ranked in the top 20 during their draft year include: Jeffers (#20 in draft year), CES (#7), Schobel (#16). Seems like there might be enough of a trend there to put a little stock in it.

I think the most likely candidates this year outside of Round 1 would be Nolan Schanuel if he makes it to #34 or Mac Horvath in Round 2 or 3.

[Cap'n Piranha]

I personally would love Bradfield.  Was reading Kiley McDaniel this morning, and he graded Bradfield as 80 run, 80 baserunning, 70/80 glove in CF, plus hit and plus pitch recognition.  Since it's starting to look like Buxton's days in CF might be done for good, taking an SEC guy (read--can make the bigs in 2025/2026) that can tableset and provide elite defense in CF makes an awful lot of sense to me.

[Jamie Cameron]

49 minutes ago, jishfish said:

If anyone is looking for a shortlist of potential college hitters the Twins might take, I would recommend looking that the BAGS+ data on ProspectsLive. Looking back this regime has taken a top 20 ranked hitter by BAGS+ every single year since they took over. Maybe that should be obvious since this regime loves college hitters, but some of their picks that ranked in the top 20 during their draft year include: Jeffers (#20 in draft year), CES (#7), Schobel (#16). Seems like there might be enough of a trend there to put a little stock in it.

I think the most likely candidates this year outside of Round 1 would be Nolan Schanuel if he makes it to #34 or Mac Horvath in Round 2 or 3.

Horvath is so interesting to me. Consistently rated outside top 100 but produced like a top 50 guy.

[Dman]

2 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

I think Teel is going to make it a top 6 when it's all said and done. The bar for producing value is so much lower there and the fact that he can run too (doesn't steal a lot but is fast) adds more. I'm expecting chaos when we finally get to July. This time last year, we were all talking about how one of the consensus top 6 wouldn't get to the Twins and they ended up with a choice of Lee, Parada, or Collier lol

This is the only Mock I found with Teel in the top 5 but the Rangers just might be the Team that pulls the trigger on Teel.  I don't know what Jenkins has going for him other than power but he sure seems to be high on most boards.  There certainly could be shakeups in the draft order but the Twins are set to get an elite player.  In this mock they do get Skenes.  Still I think in the end you are right that Teel could make the top 5.

[jishfish]

2 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Horvath is so interesting to me. Consistently rated outside top 100 but produced like a top 50 guy.

Agreed, especially because he seems to be relatively athletic and versatile. From what I've read it seems he doesn't 100% have a defensive home (3B/RF most likely) but that it has more to do with him being good in multiple places versus trying to hide him (ala Miranda, Julien, CES, etc). Definitely wouldn't be mad if they pulled the trigger in R2.

[2wins87]

6 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Great point about the comp pick and I love the targets you picked out. I think Davis will be a top 15 pick but the ones you mention are great 'Twinsy' profiles.

Yeah, I imagine most of those guys will be gone by the end of round 1. I like following the draft but can't pretend to really have a good idea of who I like beyond the top 10. Lots of exciting depth though.

I really appreciate all the work on this coverage. I still have a lot of blurbs to read on the board. 

 

[Jamie Cameron]

20 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Yeah, I imagine most of those guys will be gone by the end of round 1. I like following the draft but can't pretend to really have a good idea of who I like beyond the top 10. Lots of exciting depth though.

I really appreciate all the work on this coverage. I still have a lot of blurbs to read on the board. 

 

Thanks for the kind words. I also, have no clue who is going to go where lol. I DO think though, given the list of names you mentioned, that someone of really good value will likely be around at 34.

[MN_ExPat]

22 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

Seen quite a few threads on Dollander that suggest his issues are more mechanical than anything else. I'm anti-pitching with a top 5 pick in general unless it's a truly outstanding prospect, and i think only Skenes fits that bill.

Totally get that thought, but I would play Devil's Advocate and say after watching Dollander pitch last year... his stuff is legit.  I think the argument can be strongly made that Skenes is the better/more polished pitcher right now, but I still (IMHO) think the Twins wouldn't go wrong by picking Dollander at #5. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, MN_ExPat said:

Totally get that thought, but I would play Devil's Advocate and say after watching Dollander pitch last year... his stuff is legit.  I think the argument can be strongly made that Skenes is the better/more polished pitcher right now, but I still (IMHO) think the Twins wouldn't go wrong by picking Dollander at #5. 

I have a tough time with him slipping as far as he has.  OK, Skenes has surged ahead but 4 months ago he was the best prospect since Strasburg?  Like Lee last year he could be a bit of the forgotten man in the hype machine.  I wouldn't have a problem with taking him either.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Jocko87 said:

I have a tough time with him slipping as far as he has.  OK, Skenes has surged ahead but 4 months ago he was the best prospect since Strasburg?  Like Lee last year he could be a bit of the forgotten man in the hype machine.  I wouldn't have a problem with taking him either.

He's number 7 on the consensus board! How far has he slipped? He's the 2nd rated pitcher.....

[Jocko87]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's number 7 on the consensus board! How far has he slipped? He's the 2nd rated pitcher.....

#2 overall in December.  Watch the video to hear Mayo gush.  Clear top 3 on a tier of their own was Dollander, Crews and Langford.

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-top-100-prospects-list-2023

[Jocko87]

Whats the deal with Braden Taylor, moved down 10+ spots but still #2 on Fangraphs board with a 50 FV?

[Grandpaboy]

Twins-friendly Cubs fan here--do the Twins usually play the Draft "straight" or do they often go way under-slot/over-slot in order to create value? I see them picking Clark or whoever falls to 1-5 and then balancing the HS risk with a college bat (Gelof?) at 34. Assuming you can get him for $2m ($480k under) or so, that leaves roughly $3.1m combined for their picks at 49 & 82. You could get very creative there and go after a "tough sign" HS pitcher...kind of what the Cubs did with Jackson Ferris last year. I envy you guys--have fun and thanks for the great work, Jamie!

[Richie the Rally Goat]

15 minutes ago, Grandpaboy said:

Twins-friendly Cubs fan here--do the Twins usually play the Draft "straight" or do they often go way under-slot/over-slot in order to create value? I see them picking Clark or whoever falls to 1-5 and then balancing the HS risk with a college bat (Gelof?) at 34. Assuming you can get him for $2m ($480k under) or so, that leaves roughly $3.1m combined for their picks at 49 & 82. You could get very creative there and go after a "tough sign" HS pitcher...kind of what the Cubs did with Jackson Ferris last year. I envy you guys--have fun and thanks for the great work, Jamie!

They’ve done the bonus pool slot maneuvering a few times, and have played it straight a few times. You could be on to their strategy for the draft.