Mahle to 60 day...

[Battle ur tail off]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

We will still get half a season from Mahle assuming he is ready after 60 days

My guess is he's thrown his last pitch for the Twins. Or maybe we get another 4-5 starts out of him at best. 

[Battle ur tail off]

3 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Yep. No one ‘wins’ them all, and there is risk involved in any trade. Do you not make the trade? I know there were some who didn’t like the trade then, so kudos to them.  But when you are a team who won’t spend on pitching in the FA market, trade and development is all that is left. It’s a game of risk that mid-market teams have to play. Given the same situation, without hindsight involved, I’d have still made that trade then. Many were ecstatic over the trade, many wanted Montas, many wanted to sign pitchers who are seriously not living out their contracts (I wanted to sign Rodón). So here we are. Let’s hope Ryan, Gray and Lopez continue keeping us in it, and Ober, Varland and SWR contribute.

I liked the trade at the time. It is too bad that his health has not been better. That said, getting rid of redundant prospects for starting pitching that is more than a half season rental is fine with me every time when we are fighting for a penant. 

[John Belinski]

4 hours ago, Brandon said:

We will still get half a season from Mahle assuming he is ready after 60 days

I would be surprised if was of any help to the Twins this year or ever

[John Belinski]

17 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Wow. A little surprising to see Kirillof called up, Larnach sent down, and Thielbar put on IL. Mahle on 60 day IL is also somewhat surprising.

Larnach had 7 strikeouts in a row. Think we need to give AK a chance since it appears he could not do much worse. Larnach has been swinging at way too many bad pitches, but so has several other players. The manager or hitting coach needs to help these batters to start swinging at pitches in the strike zone and not swing at pitches well out of strike zone.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Squirrel said:

Given who was available for the cost … Montas would have cost more and there was iffyness there, too, as he had already been on the IL that year … would you have chosen to do nothing? And I’m not suggesting that would have been a bad thing, just wondering what your move, or no move would have been at the time.

It's a fair question, but I'm going to start by basically dodging it and say that we can't know all the things that a plugged-in front office can know, such as who might be available given the right price.  Among the candidates we think we knew about, we saw that Luis Castillo got traded just days earlier, for a much steeper and more painful price, and the Mariners subsequently signed him to an extension slightly larger than what we (recently) have given Pablo Lopez.  With Royce Lewis injured by then and Brooks Lee not yet available for trade, I don't know if we even had what the Reds were demanding, if we piled 10 "good" prospects into our offer.  Also acquiring Castillo might mean not going after Pablo Lopez this past off-season if the plan were to extend Lopez too.  Wheels within wheels, when deciding.

So... I'm back to "but not Mahle."  My own data-free analysis was that Mahle was at the time too high a medical risk, just based on his recent health record at the time; he had a solid 2021 but was on the IL in '22 for a shoulder problem, and shoulders scare me as much or more than elbows (though ironically it looks like the elbow is what got Mahle this time).  I trust that teams have better analytics on pitcher health than I do (more data, more time to experiment with "models" of what contributes to good risks and what doesn't), and yet I maintain they missed something that seemed obvious to me. So, if it were me as GM, I'd have gone back to my underlings and told them, go through the list of candidates and get me someone else.

And if they came back again and said there was no one, Mahle or nobody, then I guess I don't trade those prospect chips after all. I hate that answer, because we were in first place at the time (and had been sinking for two months or so), and you don't want to punt.  But they say that sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make.

And then that contradicts the success they've had with other trades.  Not to mention that every pitcher comes with health risks.  Every.  Single.  One.

But at heart, I believe that there are analytics that no one publishes for public consumption about this whole topic, and that some teams have a better handle on pitching risk than others do, and when we traded for Paddack and then for Mahle, we were seeing the difference.  I'll always link the trades for Paddack and Mahle together, as a calculation that the way to win a World Series is by having high-end talent, and the mid-market teams have to assume more health risk to get those arms and then hope.  I don't especially like it.

 

[Squirrel]

27 minutes ago, ashbury said:

It's a fair question, but I'm going to start by basically dodging it and say that we can't know all the things that a plugged-in front office can know, such as who might be available given the right price.  Among the candidates we think we knew about, we saw that Luis Castillo got traded just days earlier, for a much steeper and more painful price, and the Mariners subsequently signed him to an extension slightly larger than what we (recently) have given Pablo Lopez.  With Royce Lewis injured by then and Brooks Lee not yet available for trade, I don't know if we even had what the Reds were demanding, if we piled 10 "good" prospects into our offer.  Also acquiring Castillo might mean not going after Pablo Lopez this past off-season if the plan were to extend Lopez too.  Wheels within wheels, when deciding.

So... I'm back to "but not Mahle."  My own data-free analysis was that Mahle was at the time too high a medical risk, just based on his recent health record at the time; he had a solid 2021 but was on the IL in '22 for a shoulder problem, and shoulders scare me as much or more than elbows (though ironically is looks like the elbow is what got Mahle this time).  I trust that teams have better analytics on pitcher health than I do (more data, more time to experiment with "models" of what contributes to good risks and what doesn't), and yet I maintain they missed something that seemed obvious to me. So, if it were me as GM, I'd have gone back to my underlings and told them, go through the list of candidates and get me someone else.

And if they came back again and said there was no one, Mahle or nobody, then I guess I don't trade those prospect chips after all. I hate that answer, because we were in first place at the time (and had been sinking for two months or so), and you don't want to punt.  But they say that sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make.

And then that contradicts the success they've had with other trades.  Not to mention that every pitcher comes with health risks.  Every.  Single.  One.

But at heart, I believe that there are analytics that no one publishes for public consumption about this whole topic, and that some teams have a better handle on pitching risk than others do, and when we traded for Paddack and then for Mahle, we were seeing the difference.  I'll always link the trades for Paddack and Mahle together, as a calculation that the way to win a World Series is by having high-end talent, and the mid-market teams have to assume more health risk to get those arms and then hope.  I don't especially like it.

 

And that’s all fair, even if I or others chose a different move. It’s how this site exists … disagreeing and discussing those disagreements.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It’s frankly too soon in my opinion to grade the Lopez trade. The Twins certainly got a good pitcher they needed, no doubt. 

The Mahle trade is a loss and the Ryan trade is a win, leaving us with a 1-1-1 record for those three. Your mileage may vary from mine with the Gray trade.

Imagine where the Rays would be if they hadn’t traded Ryan. 🙂 (is it possible to improve on 27-6?)

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

And that’s all fair, even if I or others chose a different move. It’s how this site exists … disagreeing and discussing those disagreements.

I feel like adding that the package we gave up was pretty ideal from our side, when trying to go big.  You can't avoid giving up pitching to get pitching in return, so 2nd rounder Hajjer is painful to give up but he represents merely a hope versus the established guy we're getting, so it's got to be him plus more.  Steer and Encarnacion-Strand seem to be mediocre gloves who will get wherever they go because of their bats, and you can only have so many DHs on your roster.  I don't think I've mentioned but when I was in Oakland last weekend I watched Steer playing first base, and I was extremely unimpressed with a couple of plays, including a trivial one that doesn't show up in the box score but indicated a general lack of gracefulness.  I see some say that if we had Steer then we could option Miranda and still have 3rd base covered, but I say, have you actually watched Steer?  I've watched him exactly once, and now have a working theory on why he was offered.  I think we'd be yelling about his defense if he were on the Twins now.

[AceWrigley]

We've gotten 9 starts and less than 5 innings per start since we acquired him. Hopefully he can get through these arm issues and become a reliable starter for us. If I'm Cincy, I'm happy with the trade.

[FlyingFinn]

Anyone want to gamble on resigning Mahle to a Dobnak-ish contract? We won't get him that low but this will be lowest he'd cost in the past years. If the medical staff believes he can totally recover, I might take that gamble.

[Squirrel]

57 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I feel like adding that the package we gave up was pretty ideal from our side, when trying to go big.  You can't avoid giving up pitching to get pitching in return, so 2nd rounder Hajjer is painful to give up but he represents merely a hope versus the established guy we're getting, so it's got to be him plus more.  Steer and Encarnacion-Strand seem to be mediocre gloves who will get wherever they go because of their bats, and you can only have so many DHs on your roster.  I don't think I've mentioned but when I was in Oakland last weekend I watched Steer playing first base, and I was extremely unimpressed with a couple of plays, including a trivial one that doesn't show up in the box score but indicated a general lack of gracefulness.  I see some say that if we had Steer then we could option Miranda and still have 3rd base covered, but I say, have you actually watched Steer?  I think we'd be yelling about his defense if he were on the Twins now.

Thank you for that perspective because that’s exactly what’s being said. Now you’ve made me feel a little better about a trade I’d still make without the hindsight … lol

[Brandon]

58 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

It’s frankly too soon in my opinion to grade the Lopez trade. The Twins certainly got a good pitcher they needed, no doubt. 

The Mahle trade is a loss and the Ryan trade is a win, leaving us with a 1-1-1 record for those three. Your mileage may vary from mine with the Gray trade.

Imagine where the Rays would be if they hadn’t traded Ryan. 🙂 (is it possible to improve on 27-6?)

The Maeda trade has been an overall win.  And the Sony Gray trade looks real good too though Petty is a steep price to pay and his book is far from closed on this trade.

[Nine of twelve]

I wasn't even going to open this thread because I didn't care to read what I thought I'd find. And after briefly scanning the posts my intuition was proven to be correct. What this thread should be about is Mahle's injury and prognosis and how the team plans to deal with his rehabilitation and his absence. But instead almost all the posts are a rehash of the trade that brought him here, and I didn't and won't bother reading all that tripe.

[ashbury]

55 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

I wasn't even going to open this thread because I didn't care to read what I thought I'd find. And after briefly scanning the posts my intuition was proven to be correct. What this thread should be about is Mahle's injury and prognosis and how the team plans to deal with his rehabilitation and his absence. But instead almost all the posts are a rehash of the trade that brought him here, and I didn't and won't bother reading all that tripe.

You're missing some deep, deep insights*, then. 

But, what is there to discuss, about the current injury and prognosis and rehab?  Has the team said anything, since the MLBTR blurb a week ago suggesting a four-week stay on the IL?  Now he's transferred to the 60-day without further explanation I know of. 

His elbow hurts.

Varland is in the rotation to replace him. 

Pretty short thread, that.

 

* Plus a pleasant 60s oldie to listen to.  (And by that I don't mean yours truly.)

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Anyone want to gamble on resigning Mahle to a Dobank-ish contract? We won't get him that low but this will be lowest he'd cost in the past years. If the medical staff believes he can totally recover, I might take that gamble.

That's a very interesting idea.  I think the answer's no, but it's worth considering.

Presumably the team traded for him because they believe in his work ethic.  But guaranteeing two or three more years, even at a reduced rate relative to his free-agency hopes, would reflect an even high regard for his self-discipline.

"We'd like to guarantee you $7M a year for three years*, with a fourth-year team option for $12M, as you work back from injury. We know you were hoping for more in the free market but we feel..."

"I accept!  The doc says to take it easy for a while, though."

(under breath) "What. Have. We. Done?"

 

* I think the guarantee to Dobnak was under $10M total. Different circumstances though.

[stringer bell]

I hate to go into “woulda, shoulda, coulda”, but the Twins could have signed Rodón or Robby Ray. Acquiring pitching is a huge risk. 

[Squirrel]

49 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

I wasn't even going to open this thread because I didn't care to read what I thought I'd find. And after briefly scanning the posts my intuition was proven to be correct. What this thread should be about is Mahle's injury and prognosis and how the team plans to deal with his rehabilitation and his absence. But instead almost all the posts are a rehash of the trade that brought him here, and I didn't and won't bother reading all that tripe.

If you want to discuss the topic, discuss the topic. Mahle’s injury and the trade go hand in hand because he was an injury risk a year ago and here we are. If you don’t like a topic, or have nothing to add to it, don’t post and move onto a topic you do want to discuss. Feel free to add your thoughts about his injury and his prognosis. But since I know you not to be a doctor, I wonder what you have to add that is nothing more than speculation. But feel free to speculate about his injury.

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, ashbury said:

But, what is there to discuss, about the current injury and prognosis and rehab?  Has the team said anything, since the MLBTR blurb a week ago suggesting a four-week stay on the IL?  Now he's transferred to the 60-day without further explanation I know of. 

His elbow hurts.

Varland is in the rotation to replace him. 

Pretty short thread, that.

That suits me fine.

[Parfigliano]

18 hours ago, lecroy24fan said:

This belongs in  the fun with numbers thread.

More math?

[Musk21]

Saw this coming...Twins have announced that Mahle will be undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery on his elbow.

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/tyler-mahle-tommy-john-surgery

[Unwinder]

Predicting a cheap Paddack-style extension.

[Battle ur tail off]

Welp. Another one bites the dust. At this point we are going to need LOTS of innings from Varland, Ober, and some from guys yet in AAA. We will see how that holds up. The starting pitching has been fantastic all year long.