Pablo Lopez Has a New Weapon

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins made a tough decision when moving on from a fan favorite and a reigning batting champion this offseason. They did so hoping to be adding another strong arm to their starting rotation, and early returns suggest both sides may benefit.

 

Image courtesy of © Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

It was never going to be well received when the Twins front office decided to ship Luis Arraez down to Miami. What could soften the blow was a level of production from the incoming Pablo Lopez. Arraez is off to a hot start for the Marlins, but Lopez who started on Opening Day, has equally been on fire.

Lopez came to the Twins with two years left under team control. Since 2022, the former Miami righty owned a 3.52 ERA and was as consistent as you could hope on a nightly basis. Although he has never garnered Cy Young attention like former teammate Sandy Alcantara, Lopez has flashed elite stuff with an ERA just above 3.00 in 2021.

Looking to push him towards an even higher level, Minnesota saw some opportunity to introduce another weapon into his repertoire. Having never before thrown any iteration of a slider, the Twins worked with Lopez on the new sweeper offering. He has thrown it just over one-quarter of the time across his 173 pitches in two starts. There is no denying that the usage has been significant, but that is not at all surprising given the results.

 

Of the 48 sweepers he has flipped this season, 17 of them have resulted in a whiff. For a pitcher that got just over 12% swinging strikes last year, his 35.4% whiff rate on the sweeper offering alone is otherworldly. Thanks to the dominance of that pitch, other offerings have paired wonderfully resulting in a 16.8% overall whiff rate.

Although Wes Johnson is no longer in the Minnesota organization, it’s hard not to be impressed with the velocity explosion that Pete Maki and the pitching staff has continued to exploit. That rings true with Lopez as well, and it’s even more impressive given the early juncture we are at during the regular season. Lopez sat 93.5 mph with his fastball last year, and has never averaged more than 94.1 mph on the pitch. This season, Lopez has jumped the fastball velocity to 95.3 mph, nearly two mph faster than his career average.

The totality of the results has given Minnesota a starter that looks the part of an ace. Rocco Baldelli doesn’t have one of the ten best arms in baseball, but he has an entire rotation filled with guys capable of pitching as a number three or better. Given how well Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda each looked out of the gate, you could overlook any one single performance to the credit of the group. If each of the arms continues to one-up the last, the Twins should have every opportunity to be there in the end.

Any time the Twins struggle to score runs or look lost without a leadoff man, Arraez will be considered. Max Kepler has tried to fill in atop the lineup, and while not healthy now, needed a breakout game to get going. There is nothing wrong with Arraez doing well for Miami, and there isn’t a reason for anyone in Minnesota to have sour grapes when Lopez is shoving like he has.

We are still very early in the season and Lopez will continue to fine-tune his repertoire as the year goes on. The velocity could jump even to another level as the weather continues to warm up, but so far it’s the sweeper that has gotten and deserved the attention. Generating whiffs on one-third of a pitch usage is probably unsustainable, but it could wind up being among the best offerings across MLB this season.

When Statcast sought to classify the sweeper they wanted to find a way to describe a pitch more horizontal than the verticality of the slurve. Should things continue along this path maybe Pablo can petition for a name change to the Lopez by year's end.

View full article

[DJL44]

The bullpen has been very good too. Pete Maki should get a lot of credit for having his staff ready to contribute on game 1.

[jmlease1]

Lopez has looked really good to start the season, exactly what the twins were hoping for I think. If the sweeper is a for real pitch for him and lets him completely drop the less effective cutter from his arsenal that could be a big advantage. It'll be interesting to see if it mostly replaces the curveball he's thrown (with good success) or if both pitches stick around.

the changeup he has still looks pretty fantastic as well, so if he's able to get a little more mileage out of his fastball and backing it up with 2 really tough swing & miss offerings in the sweeper and the changeup, he could be in for a pretty big season. I'll admit that the velocity increase will be more meaningful if he's able to keep it up at midseason.

[Jocko87]

It will be interesting to see how the league adjusts once the scouting reports catch up.  The new velo and the ol' reliable changeup will help the transition. 

[weitz41]

Pablo has been as good or better than advertised so far Which has been great, it is a long season though, adjusts will be made by the league and the Twins. That being said if the velo increase sticks the results shouldn't change all that much. As a fantasy baseball guy, I've had Pablo on one of my teams for a couple years now. He generally starts strong and fades in August and September. But if that means he is what he was last year to start the season velo wise, in August and September, he could have a really nice season.

The sweeper has been an impressive pitch so far. Paired with his increase velo and an elite changeup it hopefully is a long season for anyone who swings a bat against him.

[h2oface]

Two fine starts as the season opens, and the ace talk. How many pitchers have started seasons with two fine starts?

So very desperate.

[ashbury]

Please, never begin a headline with Firstname Lastname.  I read slowly and for an instant there I thought I was about to read of some injury for the player.  How about New Weapon for Pablo Lopez, instead.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

Two fine starts as the season opens, and the ace talk. How many pitchers have started seasons with two fine starts?

So very desperate.

There's nothing unreasonable being said here. He's a pitcher who has had slightly reverse splits for his career, but has also performed like a #2 starter. He's added a new pitch to his arsenal that looks like it may be more effective for him against same-sided hitters, and his velocity is up. If he was already a number #2 and may have improved...how is he not looking the part of a ace?

If your criticism is just that he's only had a couple of starts, I hope you're patrolling the boards smacking down the people raging at every hitter who has started out slow too, because you can't have it both ways.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

It will be interesting to see how the league adjusts once the scouting reports catch up.  The new velo and the ol' reliable changeup will help the transition. 

Exactly - no scouting report on “the sweeper” after only using it in 2 starts. Much easier to be effective. Still, I’m sure it will remain to be a good pitch for López and the increase in velocity is intriguing! Best of luck making us think this trade was one, Won by the Twins, so far so good.

Hope Luis keeps having great success as well!

[saviking]

Once Julien settles in the bigs, hits for more power than Arraez with the same on base percentage this is going to look like one hell of a trade ..

[Jocko87]

Here is your scouting report, good luck.  Sheesh.