Should Twins trade Kepler for Bellinger straight up?

[Game7-91]

Much has been made of Max Kepler's future, or lack thereof, with the Twins. Kepler's offensive struggles the last 3 seasons are well documented. As 2023 is the season of decision regarding Kepler's contract (Twins can buyout at end of season, or extend him into 2024 for 10M), questions have been raised about whether or not Kepler should be traded.

The problem for the Twins is that they would be selling low on Kepler. He is 3 years removed from his career year, and since then, has performed badly at the plate.

In Los Angeles, Cody Bellinger's career has taken an similar course to Kepler's. Since the outlier season of 2019, in which both players had career seasons and Bellinger won NL MVP, Bellinger's offensive decline has exceeded Kep's. Comparing their overall career #'s (  https://mlbcomparisons.com/cody-bellinger-vs-max-kepler-comparison/   ) shows two fairly similar career offensive profiles. Yet based on history alone, Bellinger would seem to have a higher potential ceiling. But reality is that in the 3 seasons since the juiced ball season of 2019, both players have flailed badly at the plate.

Both are coming into contract years. Bellinger is in the final of his arb years, and is projected to make roughly 16M in 2023. Kepler is due 8M in the final guaranteed year of his contract, and 10M if the Twins were to option is contract into 2024, with a 1M team option buyout. 

Kepler turns 30 in February 2023, Bellinger will turn 28 in July 2023.

Both are noted for defensive abilities. Bellinger's natural position is CF, which would seem a strong way to backup/platoon with Buck. Bellinger could slide between RF and CF as needed. The Twins would still need a viable 4th OF though, and that person does not yet seem to be on the roster.

The bet would be on some level of offensive resurgence by Bellinger, while providing security in CF for the inevitable injuries to Buck. The Dodgers move on from Bellinger, and take a similar chance on reinvigorating Kepler's career, while somewhat reducing their luxury tax liabilities.

Is this a viable trade off-season trade scenario for the Twins?

 

 

 

[Otaknam]

I don’t think they will do that if the team has to take on a much higher salary. I do like  Bellinger as an option for CF, though, for when Buxton inevitably hurts himself sliding, running to first, or chasing down a fly ball and is down for half the season.

[Old fox]

I believe Buxton wants to play cf and he is great. But because of health &injuries concerns maybe moving him to lf, rf or dh would be a consideration.  I understand this could effect his ego. I would consider a Kepler trade for Bellinger a good trade. 

[weitz41]

Trade, no, I don't see how that makes much sense. How many low OBP, hit strike out. LH outfielders do we need? Different name similar player at twice the salary.

[IndianaTwin]

I think one of the biggest things this trade would provide is a new scapegoat for folks on Twins Daily. For a net $7M cost, I don't think that and a little more flexibility in CF is worth it. 

[wsnydes]

This is basically trading for a guy that you already have.  Only, the guy that you'd be trading for costs twice what the guy you already have does.  I don't really see how a trade like this makes any sense.

[Riverbrian]

Kepler hasn't been good for two years straight. Bellinger has been worse during those two years. 

The Twins need to sign an OF who has been GOOD for two years straight.

Neither Kepler or Bellinger deserve "starters" playing time at this point. Kepler can have a roster spot as a member of the OF pile... but he has to prove himself for similar playing time to what he has been given the past two struggling years. 

OF should be a free agency priority and Kepler is a major reason why it needs to be a priority. 

 

[Rosterman]

Kepler will have to be moved as part of a deal. And the Twins need a strong right-naded hitter to replace him.

[ICTwin25]

I'd rather they throw money at a guy like Christian Vazquez. A catcher than can actually hit? Oh man....

[tony&rodney]

Wait, what? Kepler may have not reached the heights we have hoped for but Bellinger has plummeted to being a defensive substitute at nearly $20 million. The Dodgers will release him and someone will take a chance for a greatly reduced price.