For all you armchair pitching experts...

[cmathewson]

No, but the Twins signed guys who were widely viewed as being at the bottom of the free agent barrel, as evidenced by their relative price tags. So the question is whether TR outfoxed the rest of the league by buying low on the likes of Correia and Pelfrey, or should have spent to acquire more highly regarded arms. The fact that some of those highly regarded arms aren't going to pan out is not a revelation and the fact that some have been bad/injured early isn't surprising (nor particularly noteworthy). In time we'll be able to judge all of these pitchers and decide whether or not the "massive angst" was warranted but April 23rd certainly isn't that time.

 

The angst comes from just how highly regarded the individuals on the FA market were. Some of us relied solely on fielding-independent stats, others on innings or injury histories or relative age, or ballpark effects or the quality of the team catching the ball behind them or, etc. Contrary to popular belief, it is not an exact science. And there were a dozen pitchers that were close enough to make an argument. So we did.

 

The gist of the other argument was about who would even listen to our offers. According to Antony, many had other reasons besides money to sign where they did, so there weren't as many viable options as there appeared to be. According to Antony again, they talked tot he agents of every free agent pitcher and offered a lot of contracts, most of which were turned down out of hand. Some of them were pulled back with medical reports and such. The end result was a smaller than a handful. Oh well.

 

Ironically, TR got most of the flack because he spent less than his budget. I'm sure he would have received flack for wasting money if he had chosen some other pitcher with marginally better peripherals. He was in a no-win situation. He chose the guys his scouts told him were undervalued. I can't blame him too much for that because it wouldn't affect winning or losing this year in any significant way anyway.

[drjim]

No, but the Twins signed guys who were widely viewed as being at the bottom of the free agent barrel, as evidenced by their relative price tags. So the question is whether TR outfoxed the rest of the league by buying low on the likes of Correia and Pelfrey, or should have spent to acquire more highly regarded arms. The fact that some of those highly regarded arms aren't going to pan out is not a revelation and the fact that some have been bad/injured early isn't surprising (nor particularly noteworthy). In time we'll be able to judge all of these pitchers and decide whether or not the "massive angst" was warranted but April 23rd certainly isn't that time.

 

But if you also want to look back at the end of the season and say that some free agents performed better than the guys the Twins signed and some performed worse, that doesn't say a whole lot either, anyone can do that. The point I tried to make throughout the offseason was that aside from a few top end guys (who probably weren't realistic for the Twins for a variety of reasons) there wasn't a whole lot of difference between the rest of the remaining free agents, maybe a win or two max.

 

I personally advocated for McCarthy and Marcum, which would have been a mistake so far, but I thought the offseason moves by Ryan were more or less reasonable.

[drjim]

And the response to that point is that it's too soon to make such a declaration.

 

For the record I am curious who you specifically advocated for the Twins to sign. Then we can compare you against the Twins against the other options.

[Mike Sixel]

I think I'll decline to argue about past history - I don't think anyone expects Corriea to win the Cy Young. One valid point on all of this is that perhaps TR was more accurate than we thought when he opined that the free agent pitching market was "thin". At the time, I didn't really see it that way but it sure looks like there may be some validity to the observation now.

 

You think this year was thin, wait for the next few.....teams are locking up players more and more, and only old, bad, or outrageously expensive guys will be FAs. It's just going to get worse for a few year, while all the new national money is being spent.

[gunnarthor]

I think one thing that is being overlooked to some extent is that the Twins needed pitchers who could pitch in April. They (likely) knew that they could add Gibson and maybe Hendriks, May or Meyer as the season progressed. So even if Correia turns into Ortiz in May (and he is younger and was always a better pitcher than Ramon), Correia, Worley and Pelfrey are at least eating a few innings that didn't have to go to Walters and Hernandez. That does have real value, even if it is a SSS.

 

The other thread lists a lot of the pitchers that were under consideration and most of them would have made April a worse month for us and made the bullpen eat more innings than they should have.

[ashbury]

I would be open to the possibility that TR had better medical information than us arm chair experts.

 

He has a mole at some other team's medical staff?

[wavedog]

I think the thread starter is just pointing out the irony that there were many posts that kicked Ryan in the nuts for signing Correia and he is starting out very well. What are we all if not armchair experts though? Obviously it is early, small sample size, etc..etc.. and it does not change the fact that we overpaid for Correia based on his history not only for one year but adding a 2nd year on top of that. We also overpaid for what the market was on other similar pitchers. I am hoping our dumb luck continues and he somehow keeps this pitching up a bit longer - flip him while he's hot!

[cmathewson]

He has a mole at some other team's medical staff?

 

When you offer a guy a contract, it is common to do medical due diligence. These can inlcude medical exams, MRIs, live tryouts, and sharing medical histories. For example, the Twins had better medical reports on Pelfrey than Baker, so they focused on Pelfrey.

[TKGuy]

I agree, war too early but a pleasant surprise. Keep it up for a half season and use him for trade bait

[ashbury]

When you offer a guy a contract, it is common to do medical due diligence.

 

It's a meme that the Twins' medical resources are below par. That's all I was doing there. For TR to have better medical information than us arm-chair experts, he'd have to be doing something unexpected; h'yuk yuk yuk.

[Nick Nelson]

For the record I am curious who you specifically advocated for the Twins to sign. Then we can compare you against the Twins against the other options.

I liked several guys. Dempster and Marcum come to mind. But that sort of misses the point. I'm not privvy to the same information that the Twins are and I'm not a major-league evaluator. What ends up being important are the decisions they make, not the hypothetical offseason blueprint I would have put together.

 

There were a lot of starting pitching options out there during the offseason (whether or not there were a lot of good options is certainly debatable), and the Twins elected to sign a pair of pitch-to-contact guys, one of whom was less than a year removed from TJ and one of whom has been terrible throughout most of his career. Conveniently, these two happened to sign a couple of the cheapest major-league contracts of anyone on the market. Then a few guys were added on minor-league deals and they called it a day. For a team that was so unbelievably dreadful in the rotation last year and lost three guys to FA, it was a completely unaggressive approach.

 

To your point, Antony did point out that the team struggled to attract good talent, but from my perspective, the fact that the team has been so bad over the last two years that they're repelling decent players isn't a very good excuse for failing to improve. Quite the opposite. Secondly, while Antony might claim that they were making good reasonable offers and getting turned down, I have my doubts about that based on TR's history.

 

Anyway, I'm as pleased as anyone with the way Correia has pitched thus far and I'm actually somewhat impressed with Pelfrey despite his results because, man, still not a year removed from surgery. But we've already had like three threads of this nature pop up and it's simply too early to draw any kind of conclusions.

[NoCal]

I think that an important stat that the Twins put a lot of value on, is the amount of time that Correia - and other pitchers - have spent on the DL. Durability is truly vital (see LA Dodgers this year), and though injuries are always unpredictable, KC has shown that he knows how to take care of his arm, and that he is a major league starter - maybe not the best, but he goes out there every time his turn comes up, and manages to get hitters out. And though Pelfrey has a totally different injury history, he came cheap, and the Twins apparently did enough research to trust in his rehab schedule. In many respects, pitcher health is the greatest contributor to team success in a given year - or to a team's failure.

[drjim]

I liked several guys. Dempster and Marcum come to mind. But that sort of misses the point. I'm not privvy to the same information that the Twins are and I'm not a major-league evaluator. What ends up being important are the decisions they make, not the hypothetical offseason blueprint I would have put together.

 

There were a lot of starting pitching options out there during the offseason (whether or not there were a lot of good options is certainly debatable), and the Twins elected to sign a pair of pitch-to-contact guys, one of whom was less than a year removed from TJ and one of whom has been terrible throughout most of his career. Conveniently, these two happened to sign a couple of the cheapest major-league contracts of anyone on the market. Then a few guys were added on minor-league deals and they called it a day. For a team that was so unbelievably dreadful in the rotation last year and lost three guys to FA, it was a completely unaggressive approach.

 

To your point, Antony did point out that the team struggled to attract good talent, but from my perspective, the fact that the team has been so bad over the last two years that they're repelling decent players isn't a very good excuse for failing to improve. Quite the opposite. Secondly, while Antony might claim that they were making good reasonable offers and getting turned down, I have my doubts about that based on TR's history.

 

Anyway, I'm as pleased as anyone with the way Correia has pitched thus far and I'm actually somewhat impressed with Pelfrey despite his results because, man, still not a year removed from surgery. But we've already had like three threads of this nature pop up and it's simply too early to draw any kind of conclusions.

 

I agree that the only thing that matters is the decisions that the Twins ultimately made. But if we are going to evaluate the transactions from the position that the Twins could have signed other guys and that some of these other guys will end up doing better than the guys the Twins ultimately signed, then that is pretty pointless as well. That criticism could be levied against any team any offseason when evaluated with the benefit of hindsight. I certainly agree that the Twins can be criticized but I am much more impressed with the criticism when a reasonable alternative is presented.

[Linus]

And the response to that point is that it's too soon to make such a declaration.

 

Nick, doesn't that work both ways? Wasn't it too soon to make many of the declarations that were made on this site last winter?

[cmathewson]

For the record, I don't think it's too soon to declare that Correia and Pelfrey have exceeded expectations. I have my doubts that it will continue with Correia. I'm actually expecting better from Pelfrey as he adjusts to the stuff his arm will give him. But if you'd told me that Correia would pitch over 30 innings in April and Pelfrey over 25, I would have not believed you. With that info, I would expect the Twins to be above .500 for the month. Let the innings eating continue.

[Jim H]

It is indeed too early to draw any conclusions. It is highly unlikely Correia will pitch this well all season, though he doesn't have to pitch this well to be a useful pitcher. One thing I would like to point out though is, it is impossible to win a division in April and May, but you can go a long way to losing one in the first two months. Like the Twins did the last 2 years. Part of Ryan's goal seemed to be have enough useful pitching to cover for the inevitable injuries and poor performance. He seems to have done that, so far.

 

So if/when some of the current starters falter, perhaps DeVries, Deduno, Gibson, Hendriks, Hardin, etc. maybe in a position to cover them. I think it is probably wishful thinking to expect anything from May or Meyer at the major league level this year, but it is good to see some potential high level arms fairly close to the majors in the Twins system.

 

 

It is also likely true that some of the preferred FA choices will be better than Correia and Pelfrey. But most of them aren't pitching now, which is pretty important for the Twins, since most of the Twins alternate options aren't ready or in some cases, hurt.

[fairweather]

Correia died and came back as Kevin Tapani. Fine with me.

[Nick Nelson]

Nick, doesn't that work both ways? Wasn't it too soon to make many of the declarations that were made on this site last winter?

What are you referring to? There's a difference between making declarations and stating opinions.

 

For the record, I don't think it's too soon to declare that Correia and Pelfrey have exceeded expectations.

Actually, if you base your expectations on historical precedent, Correia is basically living right up to his. He's pitched this way in April each of the past two years. Maybe this is the year he's able to keep it rolling but, well, I don't expect it.

[Linus]

What are you referring to? There's a difference between making declarations and stating opinions.

 

 

Actually, if you base your expectations on historical precedent, Correia is basically living right up to his. He's pitched this way in April each of the past two years. Maybe this is the year he's able to keep it rolling but, well, I don't expect it.

 

Whatever. People were going nuts about TRs lack of adding starting pitching. I didn't like it either but was willing to consider the idea that maybe he knew more than me. The strength of the language on the site was a lot more than "stating opinions". I'm not even saying all the naysayers are wrong, in fact I think there is a greater probability that they will be correct than incorrect. I just think it would be refreshing for many people to actually acknowledge that their astute "opinions" might actually be wrong.

[TheLeviathan]

How has Pelfrey exceeded expectations? He's been brutal twice and ok once. I'm still not convinced he's healthy - kudos to the guy for his recovery for sure, but it wouldn't shock me one bit if by the end of April he's on the DL.

[John Bonnes]

So far regarding Correia, we were wrong. Twins scouting is trumping our historical analysis. TR was right and we were tremendously, beautifully, triumphantly wrong. I think about everyone on this board hopes that remains the case. And I don't just mean for May. I mean for all of 2013. And 2014.

[Linus]

I'm not even suggesting that anybody critical of the siginings needs to apologize. I am merely suggesting that they might be wrong; maybe not but just maybe. Simple.

[ashbury]

I'm not even suggesting that anybody critical of the siginings needs to apologize. I am merely suggesting that they might be wrong; maybe not but just maybe. Simple.

 

You could have made the same suggestion December 14. Did you?

[Nick Nelson]

Whatever. People were going nuts about TRs lack of adding starting pitching. I didn't like it either but was willing to consider the idea that maybe he knew more than me. The strength of the language on the site was a lot more than "stating opinions".

I'll grant you that. I think it stems from two things: 1) we've gone through this whole exercise too many times in the past with guys like Marquis, Livan, Ponson, Ortiz, etc; and 2) they left so much money on the table to sign two of the cheapest guys available.

 

I know that, in my case, both those things were contributors. But what really irked me was that I thought the offense and bullpen both had a chance to be pretty good, and that Ryan was doing the rest of the team a real disservice with such a half-assed effort to turn around the rotation. Correia and Pelfrey, in a best-case scenario, will be mediocre inning-eaters. The front office pretty much acknowledged that.

 

Through these first few weeks, that very scenario has played out. The offense and bullpen both look pretty legit. But the Twins have the third-worst starting pitching ERA in the league, and that's with Correia pitching out of his mind. Their strikeout rate is hideous and that won't change soon. They're not going to be able to sustainably play winning baseball with the rotation they've put together. That's what is frustrating. Four good starts from Correia to start the season don't cover up that reality.

[Linus]

I actually agree with you on this point. I thought this team had potential in the regular lineup and enough pieces to put together a decent bullpen. My main point isn't to give credit to TR for who he signed, rather that it seems plausible that he correctly assessed who he shouldn't sign. He has really improved the organization from top to bottom in a very short period of time. This seems to be lost in the forum.

[ThePuck]

They were showing a Bremer interview before this game and he said if the Twins were still reasonably in it in July he'd be surprised if the Twins didn't trade for a pitcher to seriously bolster the team.

 

Oh, Richard...

[jorgenswest]

It was pointed out on this site that Correia's ERA- in 2012 was 109 which ranked 90th of the top 150 pitchers by games started. He doesn't need to rank that high to be worth the 4.5 million.

 

In fact, his WAR on baseball reference is at 0.9 which already exceeds the value of his contract for this year. He just needs to pitch the rest of the year at replacement Level. Maybe we better trade him now.

note: I see that his ERA- for 2012 is now 110. Not sure what changed since I made the spreadsheet a few months ago.

[LaBombo]

How has Pelfrey exceeded expectations?

By not being on the DL already? But it does look like the brutal-to-ok ratio might increase tonight...

[cmathewson]

How has Pelfrey exceeded expectations? He's been brutal twice and ok once. I'm still not convinced he's healthy - kudos to the guy for his recovery for sure, but it wouldn't shock me one bit if by the end of April he's on the DL.

 

Pelfrey has thrown more than 0 innings in April.

[ThePuck]

Fangraphs had Correia's value for 2012 at 2.6M....by FAR his best in three years. He was worth 1.3M over the last three seasons going into this season...so, yeah, negative dollars in 2010 and 2011.