How many wins - All-Star Break Edition

[wsnydes]

Now that we're at the All-Star break, I'm wondering how everyone's outlook on the team is evolving.  I've done this pole prior to the season and again at the beginning of May.  Now that we're 94 games into the season and at the traditional "half-way mark" of the season, how has your outlook on the team changed?  

[wsnydes]

I find myself hovering in the mid to high 80s yet.  However, I'm starting to lean more and more towards my initial expectation of right around 80 wins.  Sadly, right around 80 could still net them the division. 

The pitching remains the biggest problem, but the bats have not awoken in a consistent basis as I had expected.  I do still think they can win the division, but they're going to need to get healthy in the pitching department and bring in outside help.  I do expect plenty of ebbs and flows throughout the remainder of the season, for both the Twins and their division competition, and I think timing of those could become a huge factor.

[Twodogs]

I think they will finish between 85 - 88 wins.  86 - 76 is 10 games over .500 and that could win them the division.  But they could end up with as many as 88 wins which I think wins the division for sure.  

 

I don't feel there is any way 80 - 82 wins the division.  Someone will get hot enough in the central to get at least 85 wins.

[wsnydes]

9 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

I think they will finish between 85 - 88 wins.  86 - 76 is 10 games over .500 and that could win them the division.  But they could end up with as many as 88 wins which I think wins the division for sure.  

 

I don't feel there is any way 80 - 82 wins the division.  Someone will get hot enough in the central to get at least 85 wins.

I don't feel that it's likely that 80-82 wins takes the division, but it also wouldn't shock me either.  This division is pretty sad.  

[ashbury]

My opinion has shifted while the season has progressed.  They've got a lot of wins in the bank now.  So now I see them as only slightly below .500.  As always I hope to be wrong.

[killebrewlover]

Had I answered this question a couple weeks ago, I might have said 85 was possible.  After seeing the melt down of the last two weeks of play, I'm doubtful about 80.  The Twins have an entertaining offense (at times).  But their pitching (in general) is awful.  A reversal of fortunes is my expectation for the remainder of the Twins season.  A shame if I'm right...

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The last 10 games were freakin’ brutal, but they’re still in first place. They’ve won 50 and don’t have to give those back.

I think they’ll take some half measures to shore up the bullpen and go .500 the rest of the way out and end the season at 84 wins.

Management and the FO have done a great job of managing starter work load, but they still all ran out of gas heading into the ASG. I wasn’t in the “trade for a starter” camp a week ago, but am now. Also need to get a couple setup men and move Sands to the big league swing man.

if the FO can pull of 3 good moves for pitching and find a bat with OBP skills to lengthen the top of the lineup this team can still make a strong push in the post season.

I don’t see 4 significant moves happening. 1-2 tops.

they’re still a good team and can still win the division, but they’ll need some luck to make waves in the post season

[wabene]

This just shows that even with the recent swoon the Twins have slightly exceeded expectations. The mercurial nature of their season has produced some sweet highs and crushing blows. That many of those blows have come lately, optimism has waned. 

There will be a week of hand wringing when they come back as we wait for the deadline. Two weeks from now there will be a clearer picture of the FO's strategy. My plan would be two pen arms, but don't sell the farm with this group. The upcoming 40 man decisions that I personally don't have pinned down should greatly factor into their plans this year. 

[CRF]

They're looking more and more like a .500 team as the season goes on. The hitting is extremely inconsistent, and we all know the problems with the pitching staff. I just don't see the FO making the kind of moves needed to get us much better. I'd be shocked if we do much of anything at the deadline, other than maybe a couple minor deals. It's just not their modus operandi to make a splash.

[Squirrel]

13 hours ago, ashbury said:

My opinion has shifted while the season has progressed.  They've got a lot of wins in the bank now.  So now I see them as only slightly below .500.  As always I hope to be wrong.

I think at the the beginning of the season I said around 80 wins because pitching, pitching and pitching. Those were and have been my three caveats. And now that we are into the season, I’ll add inconsistent offense to that mix. We have offense, good offense, but it doesn’t always come in the right spot, and that cannot be explained away by the quality of the other team’s pitching as some have excused. 

[Battle ur tail off]

This is hard to answer. Are they the team that has hammered the ball at times, thrown the ball well and played great defense? Or are they the team whose bats go quiet, pitching gets rocked and the defense makes mistakes. 

We need to get guys healthy. I feel like if they do that and can add a couple pieces, this is still a 90-ish win team. 

[Twodogs]

I would love to see them get 90 wins but that would require that they go 40 - 28 down the stretch.  That's 12 games over .500 which they haven't really done all year.  To get 88 wins would be a stretch but possible that requires them to go 38 - 30, 8 games over .500 which they have played that kind of ball for a lot of the spring and summer.  I think 88 wins gets the central.  

 

Man I hope I'm wrong, I'd love to see 90+ wins, but I don't think they are built that way as of yet.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Twodogs said:

I would love to see them get 90 wins but that would require that they go 40 - 28 down the stretch.  That's 12 games over .500 which they haven't really done all year.

I believe their high-water mark this season was 27-16, which is in line with a 40-28 aspiration.  So, more or less, they've done it before, and not that long ago.  I don't expect in the slightest that they will do it again, but it's not crazy talk either.

[Twodogs]

11 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I believe their high-water mark this season was 27-16, which is in line with a 40-28 aspiration.  So, more or less, they've done it.  I don't expect in the slightest that they will do it again, but it's not crazy talk either.

That's kind of what I was saying too.  But I said 38 - 30 is more in line with what they've done and would put them at 88 wins.  More realistic, but still pretty good.  ?

[chpettit19]

My answer was 80-89 and that's really the range I see them in. If you told me they'll end the season with 80 wins I wouldn't be shocked. If you told me they'll end the season with 89 I wouldn't be shocked. You'll have to do a new poll after the trade deadline as the moves they make, or don't make, will narrow the likely outcomes for the rest of the season.

The Mariners have won 14 in a row. A great 2 weeks can really change the perception, and trajectory, of a season. Twins rally off an 11-3 stretch and I think it'd make everyone breathe a little easier and set them up in a nice spot. It's not impossible for a run like that to happen, but they need to make some moves in the coming weeks to better their odds.

[Vanimal46]

The path to 90+ wins is still there. It is highly dependent on who we acquire over the next 2 weeks, of course. Previously I wanted all bullpen arms. Now I’m changing my tune and think 1 starter, 1 reliever will help out greatly for the final stretch of the regular season. Ideally acquiring a starter moves Archer to the pen as a multi inning arm. 

 

[RpR]

Let's see, Twins lose 11 to 0 with one hit against the White Sox, after a 12 to 2 stomping earlier,  sounds like 80 wins is the very best they will get at this point.