3 Ways Joe Smith Is Better Than Advertised

[Cody Christie]

Joe Smith has appeared in over 840 big-league games, which gives him a tremendous body of work. However, there are three ways he is better than advertised during his Twins' tenure. 

One of Minnesota's most significant needs this winter was bullpen depth, but the team's biggest free-agent acquisition was a veteran pitcher with 14-years of big-league experience. Like many relievers, Joe Smith has gone through some volatility, but there are some signs that his 2022 performance is sustainable. 

Limiting Runners
At the end of 2021, Smith posted some impressive numbers with Seattle as he posted a 2.00 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP. While those numbers are great, he has improved on them to start the 2022 campaign. His WHIP has dropped to 0.68, and he has yet to allow an earned run in 12 appearances. Smith also has a .155 WOBA, which ranks in the top 2% of the league. He has surrendered two walks, and one of them was intentional.

Batters haven't been able to make consistent contact against him. Right-handed batters have gone 2-for-23 (.087 BA) with a 5-to-0 strikeout to walk ratio and a .130 SLG. Lefties have hit 3-for-12 (.250 BA) without allowing an extra-base hit. Both walks he has allowed have come against southpaws, and he only has one strikeout versus lefties. Obviously, these numbers are likely not sustainable throughout an entire season, but some other signs indicate him having more success in 2022.

Chase Rate
Smith doesn't have the velocity many associate with chasing pitches, but he is among baseball's best at inducing swings at these pitches. So far in 2022, he has a chase rate that ranks in the 94th percentile. If batters are chasing pitches out of the zone, it is unlikely for them to make consistent contact, which is tied to his pitch usage (see below). While this is a great outcome, he has struggled to get swings and misses on pitches in the zone. 

Smith is not getting strikeouts, which can be problematic for a reliever. His K% is 7% lower than his career mark, and his Whiff% is in the 28th percentile. Over his last three seasons, he has averaged 8.3 K/9, but that total has dropped to 5.2 K/9. However, his slider and sinker have resulted in a 25 Whiff%, which is an increase over 2021. 

Change in Pitch Usage
Minnesota has done an excellent job with relievers and helping them identify the best pitch mix to maximize their value. Smith continues to use his sinker nearly 40% of the time, which matches his recent track record. However, he has flipped how much he is using his slider and his fastball. Last season, he used his slider nearly 35% of the time, but he is using it 22% this season. His fastball usage jumped from 23.4% last year to 38.1% in 2022. Both his sinker and four-seamer have produced a .125 SLG, while his slider was responsible for the only extra-base hit he has allowed. 

Overall, his velocity has dropped on all of his pitches, but he has increased the active spin% to keep hitters off-balanced. His fastball and slider have declined by 1.8 mph, and his slider has declined by 0.5 MPH. Smith has been able to use his change in pitch mix to coax hitters into making poor contact. They have posted a 48.3 topped %, which is 10% higher than what he produced in 2021. Some of these topped pitches may find holes, but the results have been successful so far this season.

Do you think Smith will be able to continue these trends? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[Rosterman]

He is filling a role. A guy you can count on when runners are on base, which is a plus.

[Dman]

Things are going to even out and he isn't going to end up "this good" but He has saved the Twins from at least three disasters this season already so hopefully he can keep that going.  Surprisingly he has been the pen's most consistent arm to this point.  Who knew the guy with the lowest velocity and funky delivery would be the best arm in the pen for the month of April?  Right now I love this guy.  Can he keep it going that is anybody's guess.

[Trov]

I have always like Smith.  We never did much against him in my memories serve me correct.  I am sure there was a time or two where we did something.  He is not someone that we will march out there day after day in high leverage, but we have used him in smart areas.  He is best ground ball inducing relief guy we have.  We have used him several times when a DP would get us out of a threat.  He has managed to do that a few times for us.  Very smart use of him in my opinion. 

K's can be great, but inning ending DP is always better than a 1 out K with bases loaded only to give a hit to next hitter. I think we will continue to use Smith in those we need a ground ball situation.  If you notice he hardly ever comes back out for a second inning after that happens to.  

He does have lack of velo, but his arm angle is hard for many hitters to get used to.  Very few guys throw from that angle so not used to picking up ball where he throws from. It is a bit of smoke and mirrors, but until it does not work he should keep on doing it. 

[Trov]

The WPA stat is a bit odd.  We look at it to see how they compare to other relievers.  I doubt many feel Pagan has pitched all that well or added much wins probability when he walks bases loaded in 1 run games.  He has finished them with saves but wow he scares me, and to see he is 22nd in WPA makes me think about that stat some. 

[strumdatjag]

He’s making a better contribution to the Twins than he did with the Timberwolves. 

[mikelink45]

I am fine with someone who does not have the steamy fastball.  Does anyone remember Stu Miller?  He pitched 16 years and had 27 WAR.  The 165 pound Miller is most famous for being blown off the mound in the all-star game and was charged with a balk. "His fastball only topped out in the 80-mph range, but Miller relied on a deceptive delivery to get batters out. "He was the epitome of an off-speed pitcher, but he could get people out," teammate Eddie Watt said of Miller." - wiki.  

Go Joe - RP is about deception and the best pens have diversity of styles.  

[Doctor Gast]

I love his deceptive arm angle and GB% with our top INF out there you can't ask for anything better.

[DJL44]

Is TwinsDaily trying to jinx the whole bullpen one pitcher at a time?