3 Ways Joe Smith Is Better Than Advertised

One of Minnesota's most significant needs this winter was bullpen depth, but the team's biggest free-agent acquisition was a veteran pitcher with 14-years of big-league experience. Like many relievers, Joe Smith has gone through some volatility, but there are some signs that his 2022 performance is sustainable. 

Limiting Runners
At the end of 2021, Smith posted some impressive numbers with Seattle as he posted a 2.00 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP. While those numbers are great, he has improved on them to start the 2022 campaign. His WHIP has dropped to 0.68, and he has yet to allow an earned run in 12 appearances. Smith also has a .155 WOBA, which ranks in the top 2% of the league. He has surrendered two walks, and one of them was intentional.

Batters haven't been able to make consistent contact against him. Right-handed batters have gone 2-for-23 (.087 BA) with a 5-to-0 strikeout to walk ratio and a .130 SLG. Lefties have hit 3-for-12 (.250 BA) without allowing an extra-base hit. Both walks he has allowed have come against southpaws, and he only has one strikeout versus lefties. Obviously, these numbers are likely not sustainable throughout an entire season, but some other signs indicate him having more success in 2022.

Chase Rate
Smith doesn't have the velocity many associate with chasing pitches, but he is among baseball's best at inducing swings at these pitches. So far in 2022, he has a chase rate that ranks in the 94th percentile. If batters are chasing pitches out of the zone, it is unlikely for them to make consistent contact, which is tied to his pitch usage (see below). While this is a great outcome, he has struggled to get swings and misses on pitches in the zone. 

Smith is not getting strikeouts, which can be problematic for a reliever. His K% is 7% lower than his career mark, and his Whiff% is in the 28th percentile. Over his last three seasons, he has averaged 8.3 K/9, but that total has dropped to 5.2 K/9. However, his slider and sinker have resulted in a 25 Whiff%, which is an increase over 2021. 

Change in Pitch Usage
Minnesota has done an excellent job with relievers and helping them identify the best pitch mix to maximize their value. Smith continues to use his sinker nearly 40% of the time, which matches his recent track record. However, he has flipped how much he is using his slider and his fastball. Last season, he used his slider nearly 35% of the time, but he is using it 22% this season. His fastball usage jumped from 23.4% last year to 38.1% in 2022. Both his sinker and four-seamer have produced a .125 SLG, while his slider was responsible for the only extra-base hit he has allowed. 

Overall, his velocity has dropped on all of his pitches, but he has increased the active spin% to keep hitters off-balanced. His fastball and slider have declined by 1.8 mph, and his slider has declined by 0.5 MPH. Smith has been able to use his change in pitch mix to coax hitters into making poor contact. They have posted a 48.3 topped %, which is 10% higher than what he produced in 2021. Some of these topped pitches may find holes, but the results have been successful so far this season.

Do you think Smith will be able to continue these trends? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.