What is a reasonable expectation for the Twins in 2022?

[cHawk]

Discussion:

[wsnydes]

A lot it will depend on what they do with the pitching.  The current team can reasonably win 70 games, so I said 75-79 assuming they make additions but nothing flashy for in the pitching department.  I figure that they'll hang around plus or minus a couple of games of .500.

[Sielk]

I think I would be okay if they finished with a positive record.

There will be (hopefully) a lot of young players, especially in the rotation, meaning that some struggles should be expected. They probably won't contend with the Sox in 2022, but I don't think 2023 is that unrealistic. I definitely don't expect them to be nearly as bad as they are this year.

[chpettit19]

I said 85-89. I think the offense is entirely capable of playing division winning baseball, and I have faith that the FO can use 50M or so on pitchers with prospects filling in to provide a solid pitching staff. I think this was a 1 year disaster (2021), a less than desired, but still relatively competitive year (2022), and back to fighting for 100 wins moving forward (2023 and beyond).

[bean5302]

Everything completely and totally depends on the front office moves in the offseason. They could go big and win 95+ or they could go cheap and lose 90.

[Brock Beauchamp]

IDK is the only reasonable answer right now. Who is traded? Who is signed? What is the payroll?

Just keeping Buxton could be the difference between two wins if he's banged up again, maybe as many as eight if he magically stays healthy. Will he be on the roster?

Do the Twins run with 1-2 middling veterans in the rotation and backfill with rookies or do they sign one impact arm and a middling veteran? There are another 2-3 wins right there.

Do the Twins trade Donaldson? Likely another couple of losses there.

Do the Twins run out their current bullpen again? There's likely -23 wins, at minimum.

[Brock Beauchamp]

At this point it would not surprise me to see the Twins field an 88 win team any more than it would surprise me to see them field a 68 win team next season. The next four months will tell us where they expect to land on that spectrum and what is a reasonable expectation of the team in 2022.

[RpR]

It depends on pitching, greatly, and defense.

If they keep Donaldson, Simmons, Buxton is back, plus they have Refsnyder and Garlic as back-ups  and they pick-up a good left fielder, defense will be good.

Get Cruz back and they will win an extra 6-7 games.

Pitching, roll the dice, it cannot get worse.

[Number3]

To me, how they do next year will be a lot easier to predict after this month's games  are done. Don't look now but the Twins have won 2 straight series against first place teams. Now on to another first place team at home. Start playing like a contender now. Difference between winning and losing is a key hit here, key out there.  Next year anywhere between 70 and 95.

[ashbury]

10 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

At this point it would not surprise me to see the Twins field an 88 win team any more than it would surprise me to see them field a 68 win team next season. The next four months will tell us where they expect to land on that spectrum and what is a reasonable expectation of the team in 2022.

The range might still be 68-88 wins after they make their moves. It's just that an outcome at either end of the range will be more of a surprise.

[TopGunn#22]

I said 95 or more because as badly as the FO and Rocco have bungled things this year we're due to hit a Grand Slam on all FA signings, Buxton's health and Sano cutting strikeouts down to 88...right ??

[Major League Ready]

20 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

IDK is the only reasonable answer right now. Who is traded? Who is signed? What is the payroll?

Just keeping Buxton could be the difference between two wins if he's banged up again, maybe as many as eight if he magically stays healthy. Will he be on the roster?

Do the Twins run with 1-2 middling veterans in the rotation and backfill with rookies or do they sign one impact arm and a middling veteran? There are another 2-3 wins right there.

Do the Twins trade Donaldson? Likely another couple of losses there.

Do the Twins run out their current bullpen again? There's likely -23 wins, at minimum.

I also voted IDK.  How can we even guess with answering the questions you pose.  However, I would add the team we are watching today is much better than the team that started the season.  Will Ober / Jax / Barnes / Minaya and Gant continue to play to this level?  That’s not a sub 500 team at this moment.  Add Buxton / Kirilloff and cut Cave.  Where are we now?   What about Ryan?  Will he be here soon and what will we learn about him in the remainder of the year.  Add one good FA starting pitcher plus a SS this could be a pretty darn good team.  

Sano getting his act together would sure help.
 

[gunnarthor]

Obviously we won't know until the moves are planned out but if we do, as I expect, and go with a rotation of something like: Maeda, resign Pineda, sign someone in the Alex Cobb FA bucket, Jax, Ryan fronting our rotation we will be a sub .500 team.

[bighat]

I put 75-79.

I just don't see this team doing much without a major pitching overhaul that might take years to rebuild.

The Twins are basically the Texas Rangers at this point: a team that has some very talented offensive pieces that play below-average defense, along with about 1.5 serviceable starters and a dumpster fire for a bullpen. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

On 8/12/2021 at 9:46 PM, ashbury said:

The range might still be 68-88 wins after they make their moves. It's just that an outcome at either end of the range will be more of a surprise.

So, split the difference and put you down for 78 wins in 2022?  

[Irishman]

Well, I have no expectations for 2023.     I have no confidence in FO.