The Next Roster Move

[stringer bell]

 

Pretty SSS for Alex in the majors.  In 2019, which was is his only competition above A ball, the splits are pretty pronounced as he only hit .244/.301/.333 against lefties compared to .302/.363/.452  against right handed pitching.  A healthy Sano makes a pretty nice platoon partner with Alex if he continues to hit.

Sanó is 1-16 vs. lefties this year. His lifetime OPS split is .816 vs. right handers and .841 vs. left handers. It seems that when he's slumping or red hot it really doesn't matter which hand the pitcher is throwing with. I don't think that makes him a good or reliable platoon partner. It seems to me that the most likely way for Sanó to succeed is to run him out there until he finds his stroke, but I don't know if the Twins can afford to do that. 

[stringer bell]

 

Almost every LHB in MLB history is vulnerable to LHP, at least relative to their performance versus RHP.

 

Kirilloff's minor league OPS versus LHP, at a glance, appears to be slightly >.100 lower than his OPS against RHP.

 

Which is pretty normal and expected. Even the mighty Barry Bonds had a .100 point lower OPS against LHP.

 

As for Arraez, his gap is huge... a .235 point OPS difference between RHP and LHP in his career.

Yep, Arraez has truly struggled against lefties and has virtually no extra base pop against southpaws. He's still a bit of a tough out, drawing his share of walks, but there is not much point in playing Luis against lefties.

[SwainZag]

 

Sanó is 1-16 vs. lefties this year. His lifetime OPS split is .816 vs. right handers and .841 vs. left handers. It seems that when he's slumping or red hot it really doesn't matter which hand the pitcher is throwing with. I don't think that makes him a good or reliable platoon partner. It seems to me that the most likely way for Sanó to succeed is to run him out there until he finds his stroke, but I don't know if the Twins can afford to do that. 

The platoon was more based upon Alex vs lefties than Sano against righties. That .841 OPS against lefties is certainly better than the .634 OPS Alex had against AA pitching.  I totally agree that running him out there everyday would probably be better for Sano, it might not be better for the Twins when Kiriloff is hitting like has this week.

[Platoon]

Can you option the bullpen? In reality I would send him on a rehab, for as long as possible. He either has to hit like a MLB player, or he likely has to be taken of the current MLB squad. You can’t give up Kiriloff’s AB’s to him right now. And Sano is not any kind of upgrade at 1B. Maybe a tad, but neither will make us forget that defense doesn’t count on that corner! 

[Vanimal46]

Thorpe is coming up to start on Wednesday.

[stringer bell]

I think that barring injury, Kirilloff will get most of his at-bats as a left fielder. Sanó is under contract and his value and productivity do not increase while he's sitting on the bench. Rocco just about has to play him when he's healthy, maybe not every single day, but more often than not. Much like last season, at some point the big man will time things out and start making hard contact frequently.

[Platoon]

 

A rehab assignment would not be shocking.

Its like a punt!

[USAFChief]

Almost every LHB in MLB history is vulnerable to LHP, at least relative to their performance versus RHP.

 

 

Thank you.

 

I cringe when I hear Bremer claim "so and so hits lefties just as well as righties," ot even worse, make a claim of " reverse splits."

 

Reverse splits, to a practical degree, don't exist. The few exceptions merely prove the rule.

[Trov]

 

Almost every LHB in MLB history is vulnerable to LHP, at least relative to their performance versus RHP.

 

Kirilloff's minor league OPS versus LHP, at a glance, appears to be slightly >.100 lower than his OPS against RHP.

 

Which is pretty normal and expected. Even the mighty Barry Bonds had a .100 point lower OPS against LHP.

 

As for Arraez, his gap is huge... a .235 point OPS difference between RHP and LHP in his career.

First, my point was not that there have lower numbers against same side, that is very common, only a few have reverse splits, but my point was that the drop off may not be enough to assume Garlick needs to play over them against all lefties.  For example, if Kirilloff has a drop off, but his drop off is still better than Garlick at his best why would you play Garlick over someone who will do better?  That makes little sense.  

 

In terms of Arraez, his slugging is not huge anyways, he is not in lineup for extra base hits but to get on base.  His on base percentage is better against lefties than Garlick is.  Yes, Garlick has better OPS by about .100, and if you are looking for more potential pop then playing Garlick over Arraez would make sense, but being Arraez is not hitting for extra base hits on a regular even against right handed guys the drop off of OPS most likely is not what is leading the decision making.  

 

Overall my point was that just because their numbers may be lower against left handed guys than right handed, does not mean you need to start a right handed guy that does not put up huge numbers against left handed guys in his career. I do not think Garlick should ever play a game over Kiriloff or Arraez if all are healthy, except for the "rest" game that may be needed. 

[Trov]

 

Pretty SSS for Alex in the majors.  In 2019, which was is his only competition above A ball, the splits are pretty pronounced as he only hit .244/.301/.333 against lefties compared to .302/.363/.452  against right handed pitching.  A healthy Sano makes a pretty nice platoon partner with Alex if he continues to hit.

I agree very short sample for Kiriloff, but my point is right now he has done fine, why do we assume he will fail, until he does.  Also, just because there is fall off between the two, does not mean Garlick is better, which is the part of article I was replying to.  We are comparing Kiriloff to Garlick against lefties not Kirilloff lefties to righties.  The article suggested that Garlick should play over Kirilloff against lefties because he will be better.  I disagree.  

 

In terms of platoon with Sano, I disagree, unless Sano can get back to his old form against lefties.  Over this year, and last, he has done MUCH worse against lefties than righties.  Why would you play a guy, who is only in lineup for power, having an OPS around or below .500 against lefties over someone who has shown to at least get on base with regularity and a higher OPS, just because it is right handed versus left handed? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sadly, signs are pointing to Kirilloff going on the IL due to his wrist:

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins can’t have nice things.

[Mike Sixel]

Sigh.

[ashbury]

The Twins can’t have nice things.

Yeah. The wrist was fine so long as he was ofer-the-season. Once he started to accumulate some hits, bammo.

 

[Doctor Gast]

Broxton should not have been sent down after a good ST but he was so I agree that Broxton should have some MiLB games in before being called up. What makes sense for a veteran that needs MiLB abs doesn't it make more sense that Gordon needs a bunch of abs before being called up but yet that happened 2x. Especially now we actually have games.

Cave should eventually be sent down or better yet traded for a closer. Garlic I like because he can be a good PH, a good PH is hard to find.

[Mike Sixel]

Broxton should not have been sent down after a good ST but he was so I agree that Broxton should have some MiLB games in before being called up. What makes sense for a veteran that needs MiLB abs doesn't it make more sense that Gordon needs a bunch of abs before being called up but yet that happened 2x. Especially now we actually have games.

Cave should eventually be sent down or better yet traded for a closer. Garlic I like because he can be a good PH, a good PH is hard to find.

Who is trading anything for Cave?

[SwainZag]

 

Broxton should not have been sent down after a good ST but he was so I agree that Broxton should have some MiLB games in before being called up. What makes sense for a veteran that needs MiLB abs doesn't it make more sense that Gordon needs a bunch of abs before being called up but yet that happened 2x. Especially now we actually have games.
Cave should eventually be sent down or better yet traded for a closer. Garlic I like because he can be a good PH, a good PH is hard to find.

 

Who should Broxton made the roster over?  He is 30 and has a career ML slash line of .209/.286/.388.  He hit the ball well in ST, but other than that I don't think he moves the needle much if any.

 

No one is trading a relief worth anything for Cave at this point.  That's a pipe dream.

[nicksaviking]

 

Broxton should not have been sent down after a good ST but he was so I agree that Broxton should have some MiLB games in before being called up. What makes sense for a veteran that needs MiLB abs doesn't it make more sense that Gordon needs a bunch of abs before being called up but yet that happened 2x. Especially now we actually have games.
Cave should eventually be sent down or better yet traded for a closer. Garlic I like because he can be a good PH, a good PH is hard to find.

 

Pass on Broxton. If the team wants to bring him up fine, he can be the 5th OF when Cave finds somewhere else to play.

 

If Kirilloff is going down, bring up Celestino or Larnach. This team has no business calling up anyone but the guys they anticipate being a part of the next contending team. Doesn't matter if they aren't "ready", they can learn up here just as well as they can learn in St. Paul.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Well isn't this special? Sounds like he goes on Il, Sano is activated. After Cave having yet another 0-4 evening with "only" one strikeout, it's time for him to go to AAA and play every day. Maybe he can find something that will get him back to 2019 (or maybe he just isn't very good). Bring up Broxton. 

[SwainZag]

 

Pass on Broxton. If the team wants to bring him up fine, he can be the 5th OF when Cave finds somewhere else to play.

 

If Kirilloff is going down, bring up Celestino or Larnach. This team has no business calling up anyone but the guys they anticipate being a part of the next contending team. Doesn't matter if they aren't "ready", they can learn up here just as well as they can learn in St. Paul.

 

Celestino has exactly zero PA above A ball.  Unless you are going to start punting the season, he has no business being on the Twins right now. At least Larnach has shown success at AA ball, but neither of these guys should be called up right now.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Actually, amend that. Celestino or Larnach? Why not? Unless this Bullpen gets fixed immediately, this season is going nowhere. Cave and Garlick are fine to have on a contending team if they perform a little. They are not fine for a non-contending team because they aren't part of the next wave of starters. they take at-bats away from the next wave of starters. 

 

I hate to say this because I am the eternal optimist, but this does not look like a contending team. The bullpen is a dumpster fire and we have no fire extinguishers. That alone dooms us to at best fringe contender status. Add to that the fact that the rotation is a little short and lacks a true #1 starter, the offense is very boom or bust and thus inconsistent, and the defense if ok but tends to choke in the clutch, and the game situation managing has been below average at best. Now we're getting injury prone and that's without the IL stints for Buxton and Donaldson that you know are coming. It's hard to see one thing that will get this team going.  Frankly, 85 wins would be an accomplishment. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Celestino has exactly zero PA above A ball.  Unless you are going to start punting the season, he has no business being on the Twins right now. At least Larnach has shown success at AA ball, but neither of these guys should be called up right now.

 

Yeah, Celestino might be aggressive, I only tossed his name in there in case the team is interested in defense. But Larnach can come up. Cave has a .494 OPS, Larnach wouldn't hurt the team any more than Cave is.

 

The tone of most of the threads seem to show the fans are ready to punt this year. So yeah, get the kids ready to contribute in 2022, no need to wait.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Actually, amend that. Celestino or Larnach? Why not?

Because you start burning service time on players who have no business attempting to hit MLB pitching?

 

I mean, Larnach might be an option soon but I'm sure the front office wants to see him compete against MiLB pitching for a bit before making a decision.

 

Celestino has no business being anywhere near a major league baseball game.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The tone of most of the threads seem to show the fans are ready to punt this year. So yeah, get the kids ready to contribute in 2022, no need to wait.

Fans often seem ready to punt after the third game of the season. I hope the front office is a touch more stable and rational than that.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Probably true on Celestino, but I disagree on Larnach. He's 24 and the time is right for him to be evaluated. I know he ahsn't played at AAA but that's because of the lost 2020 season. Between Araez on concussion protocol and Kirilloff going to the IL, the only thing between Larncah and LF is Cave and Garlick. We know what Cave and Garlick bring - 4th or really 5th OF production. I'd rather give Larnach a shot. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

 

Fans often seem ready to punt after the third game of the season. I hope the front office is a touch more stable and rational than that.

I'm not ready to punt today but I will be if we can't pull ourselves back to .500 by the end of May. We have roughly 26 games to do that - 16-10 will do the trick. If we can't get back to .500 after 1/3 of the season, we need to accept the fact that this roster just isn't that good and look to the future. 

 

In the interim, give guys a shot when the MLB guys are proven not to be successful. Play Larnach now while Arraez and Kirilloff are out, not Cave or Garlick. He's 24. time to find out if he can play. If he isn't ready, send him back down. Same with Andrew Vasquez in the bullpen. He's 27. He was once a good prospect, find out if he can play. I'm sure there are others. Do what we're doing with Rortvedt, give guys a chance. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Probably true on Celestino, but I disagree on Larnach. He's 24 and the time is right for him to be evaluated. I know he ahsn't played at AAA but that's because of the lost 2020 season. Between Araez on concussion protocol and Kirilloff going to the IL, the only thing between Larncah and LF is Cave and Garlick. We know what Cave and Garlick bring - 4th or really 5th OF production. I'd rather give Larnach a shot. 

If he's ready, sure... but we have absolutely no evidence that is the case.

 

For the hundredth time, it sure would have been nice had MLB not sacrificed a month of the MiLB season to save a couple of bucks. The Twins would have so many more options right now if their upper minors teams had 20+ games under their belts.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I completely agree, Brock. Teams still in the formative stage really got the short end of that decision. Having said that, the timing is right so I'd still give Larnach his shot now. He's likely to be up at some point this year so let's do it when we can. No more Cave or Garlick. That doesn't do anything for us, short or long term.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Probably true on Celestino, but I disagree on Larnach. He's 24 and the time is right for him to be evaluated. I know he ahsn't played at AAA but that's because of the lost 2020 season.

Larnach may not be far off, but his AA experience is 181 PA of 27.6 K% and .390 BABIP too. I don't think he demands immediate evaluation at the MLB level.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not ready to punt today but I will be if we can't pull ourselves back to .500 by the end of May. We have roughly 26 games to do that - 16-10 will do the trick. If we can't get back to .500 after 1/3 of the season, we need to accept the fact that this roster just isn't that good and look to the future. 

If you are playing to win this division, you may only need to finish a couple games over .500.

 

And even if you discount the significance of winning a bad division, and you're more concerned about advancing in the playoffs, then the difference between 27-27 and 24-30 or whatever on June 1st isn't all that meaningful either.

 

Obviously we want to win, and the sooner the better, but it's a little early to specify punt criteria like this.