Twins 2021 Position Analysis: Shortstop

[Nick Nelson]

When is the last time the Minnesota Twins had a truly gifted defensive shortstop? It's been a long time, and there's a good chance this organization has never seen a fielder as good as Andrelton Simmons at the position.

 

How big of an impact can all-world defense (assuming he still possesses it) make at the infield's most critical spot?Projected Starter: Andrelton Simmons

Likely Backup: Jorge Polanco

 

Depth: Luis Arráez, Nick Gordon

Prospects: Royce Lewis, Wander Javier

 

THE GOOD

 

Simmons isn't just a good defender, or a great defender, or even an elite defender. He is a generational icon, whose name already sits beside Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel in the annals of all-time gloves at shortstop.

 

At Baseball.FYI last summer, Jacob Kornhauser suggested that Simmons may go down as MLB's best defensive player ever, period. His article points out that Simmons has accumulated 26.7 dWAR through nine seasons in the majors, already good for 14th in history and putting him on track to eventually surpass the all-time leader Smith, who took 19 years to reach 44.2 dWAR.

 

"He makes the hard plays look routine and makes the routine plays look downright boring," Kornhauser wrote of Simmons.

 

That's an apt description for the four-time Gold Glover in action. With his supernatural instincts and unparalleled arm strength, he's a marvel to behold at the infield's most challenging position. You'll see what I'm talking about in the highlight reel below. (Jump to the ~6:30 mark, and Simmons' play against Travis d'Arnaud of the Mets, for a prime example of a play that would simply never happen with Jorge Polanco – or virtually any other player – at short.)

 

 

By nudging Polanco to second base and joining forces with a hopefully-healthy Josh Donaldson on the left side, Simmons represents a clear and decisive upgrade for Minnesota's defensive unit, potentially helping turn it into one of the league's most effective.

 

Simmons' offense certainly pales in comparison to his defense, but he's far from a major liability at the plate. In six of his nine MLB seasons, his OPS+ has fallen between 90 and 110, which is basically within a standard deviation of average. He's a high-contact guy who puts the ball on the ground a lot, and will probably bat at the bottom of the Twins order.

 

If Simmons simply hits to his .269/.317/.379 (.696) career line, he'll be a fairly typical producer compared to league-wide norms in the No. 8 and 9 lineup spots. The Twins can live with that given their offensive strength at every other position.

 

Even with the consistently ordinary bat, Simmons has earned MVP votes on three separate occasions, including 2017 when he finished eighth and 2018 when he finished 15th. The defense is simply that good, and that impactful. If he's back on top of his game in 2021, Simmons will be a transformative figure for the Twins.

 

THE BAD

 

The 2020 season is one Simmons would like to forget. He hurt his left ankle for a second consecutive year, produced little punch at the plate (zero home runs and seven doubles in 127 PA), and opted out with a handful of games remaining, later revealing his struggles with mental health.

 

There's no reason to think he can't put all that behind him and move forward with a fresh slate. But what's difficult to shake when evaluating the 31-year-old's latest campaign is the conspicuous drop-off in defensive metrics.

 

Advanced fielding stats are inexact, prone to variation and noise. But up until last year, Simmons has consistently rated very, very well in these metrics, pretty much across the board.

 

As you can see below, his Outs Above Average according to Statcast sat between 15 and 19 in the prior four years (with the highest total coming in 2019, when he was limited to 103 games). Last year, OAA had him at NEGATIVE-one in 30 games.

 

Download attachment: simmonsstatcast.png

Here's how Simmons has compared to his peers by OAA over the past four years:

• 2017: 99th percentile
• 2018: 98th percentile
• 2019: 99th percentile
• 2020: 24th percentile

That's an astonishing drop-off that is impossible to ignore, samples aside. Switching views to another metric, here's how Simmons has rated according to UZR/150 since he arrived in the majors in 2012 (keep in mind this is a rate stat, not a counting stat, so it should theoretically not be as effected by the shortened season):

• 2012: 26.1
• 2013: 14.4
• 2014: 16.0
• 2015: 17.8
• 2016: 18.1
• 2017: 18.5
• 2018: 19.5
• 2019: 13.8
• 2020: 4.0

Again, what is so striking here is how incredibly consistent Simmons' top-tier defensive production was year after year, up until it plummeted.

 

Clearly Simmons had a lot going on last year, physically and mentally. If he can turn the page and return to form, he's a slam-dunk addition with the deal Minnesota landed him on (one year, $10.5 million).

 

But the fact they were able to get him on such favorable terms, while both other members of free agency's leading shortstop trio (Didi Gregorius and Marcus Semien) both got much more guaranteed money from other teams, leads to the inescapable conclusion there's a widespread skepticism about that scenario playing out.

 

THE BOTTOM LINE

 

The Simmons signing is the most interesting we've seen from this Twins front office, in terms of strategic vision and implications. If it works out as hoped, he'll have a dramatic impact on this team and its fundamental strengths.

 

With so much offseason talk about pitching, and consternation over the failure to add big-name arms, not enough attention is paid to moves like this. Run prevention is the name of the game, and planting elite defenders at crucial positions in the field supports that directive. At the height of his powers, Simmons will make Twins pitchers, as well as the fielders around him, better.

 

But that's dependent on his defense rebounding in a big way after taking an unprecedented downturn in 2020. As Kornhauer noted in his piece at Baseball.FYI: "In his nine seasons, Simmons has posted an overall WAR of 36.3, 26.7 of which is from his defense. In other words, he likely wouldn't be in the league anymore if it weren't for his defensive prowess."

 

The return of that prowess, and to what extent, will define his value to the Twins in 2021. If he can't answer the call or stay healthy, Minnesota has a fine backup in Polanco, but their secondary depth is very iffy and Polanco is already a starter elsewhere. For this reason, I'll be curious to see if the Twins carry another SS-capable player like J.T. Riddle or Andrew Romine at the end of their bench.

 

For now, we eagerly await Simmons' spring debut following a late arrival in camp. It sounds like that may come Friday.

 

READ OTHER 2021 POSITION ANALYSIS ARTICLES

• Catcher
• First Base
• Second Base
• Third Base

 

Click here to view the article

[Otwins]

Worth the risk on a one year deal. The ankle injury and mental health struggles could certainly explain the down year.  Last year which was by far the worst of his career is better than what we have been doing at shortstop defensively.

[Darius]

Well, the questions have to be asked: Who is he now? We know he was phenomenal for many years. But, what if he’s closer to his 2020 metrics?

 

Can he stay healthy? We’ve discussed the theory of Josh Donaldson and how good he is. Facts are, he hasn’t played. We don’t know if he will play. Simmons has missed a significant number of games 3 of the past 5 years (had thumb surgery in 2016 and played 120 games, played 100 games in 2019, and only 30 in 2020).

 

Offensively, he’s OPS’d under 700 3 of the last 5 (sort of, he was at .703 last year). That’s really bad. His most prolific years barely break the .750 mark. OPS+ has him as a below average hitter (below 100) nearly every year if his career. His most prolific years barely scraping over 100.

 

I get the excitement, but there’s a lot can go wrong here. I’m more concerned than I am ready to pop a champagne bottle. There’s a reason we got him for peanuts. FOs like the Yankees (who were reportedly kicking the tires) aren’t stupid, and have unlimited budgets. If they thought they were getting 2017-2018 Simmons, which I think most here just assume to be true, he’d be wearing pinstripes.

[mickeymental]

i'm glad they did it. nothing like a great shortstop, and gambling $10.5 million of someone else's money is fun. could be a rollicking summer if things work out. 

 

but one thing sticks out on that 10-minute highlight clip: he doesn't smile. is he even having fun when he makes all those spectacular plays? sure hope so. 

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

I hope he is as good as advertised defensively. When was the last time the twins had a good defensive shortstop? Greg Gagne?

[Doctor Gast]

I'm super excited about fielding a World Series caliber defense. I enjoy a great defensive play or taking an extra base or a clutch hit even more than a meaningless homer.

The fact that he went public with his struggles shows me he has this under control. I'm not worried about it. Injury can happen to anyone so I'd like the Twins carry a true SS replacement.

Totally agree with you Simmons will make everyone better. The greatest bargain the Twins made for a long time. Go Twins!

[big dog]

That highlight reel was incredible. Even flashes of that would be an enormous upgrade. Very excited to see him take the field.

[mikelink45]

I loved the video - wow.  But of course the injuries are an issue.  Now we have to worry about 3B and SS breaking down.  If they don't they are all world, if they both go down we have a real problem.  The mental issue is something that might be more serious.  I hope we have the support he needs.  

[terrydactyls]

If nothing else, he will make Sano's job easier. Every throw seemed to be a chest-high bullet. No bending, no stretching for Sano.

[Doctor Gast]

Watched the video, it's incredible how much territory he covers. Just think Donaldson at 3B, Simmons at SS, Buxton at CF, Broxton at LF, Kepler at RF, Polanco at 2B and Sano at 1B; there'll be no cheap hits and a lot of hits taken away.

[wsnydes]

Even if Simmons doesn't regain his full defensive prowess, moving Polanco over to 2B helps the defense quite a bit. I think the signing is worth the risk, and frankly, was sorely needed.

[singlesoverwalks]

His arm looks better than Greg Gagne's, and that's saying a lot. If his range is still there post-injury, it's definitely better than Gagne's. That would make him the best Twins shortstop in my memory.

[Trov]

I think Simmons is low risk pickup.  If needed Polonco and slide back, or put in Gordon.  He helps add depth and if he is shell of former self we are not tied to him for years.  If he has bounce back year we could look to extend or move on as well.  

[mikelink45]

In today's spring training game Astudillo was at 3B and Gordon at SS.  If you saw them standing side by side you had to laugh (I did).  No sport has room for such diversity of body type. 

[cHawk]

Well, the questions have to be asked: Who is he now? We know he was phenomenal for many years. But, what if he’s closer to his 2020 metrics?

Can he stay healthy? We’ve discussed the theory of Josh Donaldson and how good he is. Facts are, he hasn’t played. We don’t know if he will play. Simmons has missed a significant number of games 3 of the past 5 years (had thumb surgery in 2016 and played 120 games, played 100 games in 2019, and only 30 in 2020).

Offensively, he’s OPS’d under 700 3 of the last 5 (sort of, he was at .703 last year). That’s really bad. His most prolific years barely break the .750 mark. OPS+ has him as a below average hitter (below 100) nearly every year if his career. His most prolific years barely scraping over 100.

I get the excitement, but there’s a lot can go wrong here. I’m more concerned than I am ready to pop a champagne bottle. There’s a reason we got him for peanuts. FOs like the Yankees (who were reportedly kicking the tires) aren’t stupid, and have unlimited budgets. If they thought they were getting 2017-2018 Simmons, which I think most here just assume to be true, he’d be wearing pinstripes.

About the offense - OPS, while much better than BA and RBI, is a mathematically flawed stat. Because OPS = OBP + SLG, and SLG ranges [0,4.000] and OBP ranges [0,1.000] it overrates power hitters drastically since 1 OBP pt = 4 SLG pts. Simmons has very little power - we all know that - but if you look at wRC+/OPS+, a more inclusive stat, his wRC+ has been hovering around 100 the last four years, which is around average. (With the exception of 2019, where it was 79)

[ashbury]

About the offense - OPS, while much better than BA and RBI, is a mathematically flawed stat. Because OPS = OBP + SLG, and SLG ranges [0,4.000] and OBP ranges [0,1.000] it overrates power hitters drastically since 1 OBP pt = 4 SLG pts. Simmons has very little power - we all know that - but if you look at wRC+/OPS+, a more inclusive stat, his wRC+ has been hovering around 100 the last four years, which is around average. (With the exception of 2019, where it was 79)

OPS doesn't have strong mathematical underpinnings - in addition to the matter of scale that you raised, it adds ratios with different denominators, which is definitely ad hoc at best.

 

And yet.... every time I look for significant daylight between OPS and WRC, I don't find very much. In the case of Simmons, (baseball-reference) OPS+ and (fangraphs) WRC+ track for him as follows:

2013 90 91

2014 75 71

2015 84 81

2016 91 90

2017 102 102

2018 108 106

2019 78 79

2020 95 98

 

Even if one stat is more sound than the other, the difference isn't enough to sway me from using the one that is derived a little more simply, at least for everyday thinking.

 

 

 

[Paul]

Do both sets of these numbers compare Simmons to league average or SS average?

 

[ashbury]

Do both sets of these numbers compare Simmons to league average or SS average?

Pretty sure both are scaled to have 100 be league average. wRC+ on fangraphs is park-adjusted, as is OPS+ on b-r.com.

 

WAR is the only commonly-used metric I can recall that contains a defensive component. On b-r.com their offense component to WAR even contains the defensive position adjustment, which for some purposes may be useful but usually I find a nuisance.