Team Control and Hicks

[jorgenswest]

The Twins will have a decision to make about Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson.

 

Do they make the opening day roster?

 

Waiting until early May will allow them an extra year of team control. They did this with Dozier last year waiting until May 7. Though criticized in an article about opening presents on this site, they did wait long enough. They did risk arbitration a year earlier but did not risk a year of team control. Mid market teams like the Twins can afford to start the arbitration process a year earlier for a super 2.

 

Should the Twins wait the 3-4 weeks necessary to ensure that Hicks and Gibson will not earn a year of service time? Isn't a full season in their prime better than a month of their rookie season?

 

Would anyone advocate the Twins wait through the super 2 threshold (likely late June) in order to save some dollars in arbitration?

[Mike Sixel]

I think waiting for team control is silly. This team has no veterans at all, and most of the players will not work out. Control is about cost control. If he's awesome, offer him a long term deal next year to lock him up. If he's average, great. If he's bad, whatever. If he is the best OFer on the roster, he should be up here, not in AAA. This team has plenty of money, money is not the issue.

[beckmt]

Agree, If they have decent spring trainings, they should make the team. This is the year to find out what we have, not wait till we need them to perform and then they could fail.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

To get a full year of service time a player needs to spend 172 days out of the 183 days of the season in the big leagues. Those numbers are pretty easy to figure and the trade off - 12 days in the minors or an extra year of team control - is also quite easy to see. Teams and players know well in advance how that is going to shake out and it's really no surprise teams often keep players down to start the year.

 

Avoiding the Super-2 status is much trickier. That's based on the service time of the top percentage of players to miss arbitration, so there is a lot of guesswork involved and you could go through the work and guess wrong.

 

I guess my point is that with Hicks, having not played any AAA, to give him time because he could use it and with Gibson, who is on a limit anyway, to put him on Rochester's DL to start the year. I would call them up when I think they're ready and/or there is a need as long as it's not in the first two weeks of the season. I wouldn't try to time their arbitration clocks, though, because that's less certain.

[gunnarthor]

Even if Hicks makes the team out of ST, it's likely that he will be sent down at some point anyway. It's rare for a rookie not to be sent down. Gibson, I'm not worried about. I think the team should put him in the bullpen right away and make him a starter after the break.

[70charger]

To get a full year of service time a player needs to spend 172 days out of the 183 days of the season in the big leagues. Those numbers are pretty easy to figure and the trade off - 12 days in the minors or an extra year of team control - is also quite easy to see. Teams and players know well in advance how that is going to shake out and it's really no surprise teams often keep players down to start the year.

 

This.

 

Oh, and also this.

[Top Gun]

I would wait till may with both, better to save some money and better for the player to get there work in the early going

[ashbury]

I think a GM for any mid-market team would be grossly negligent if he didn't attempt to maximize the assets he has to work with. A full season of Hicks and Gibson in 2013 will be not yet in their prime, and I would not trade a year when they are around 30 in order to get those few more weeks now. If the Twins happen to get off to a hot start, bring them up in May; if they are at 6-12 or some similar level then wait longer and try playing the arbitration game as well, rather than throw good money after bad for the 2013 edition of the team.

[beckmt]

If you are going to keep some of your best players at Rochester, how can you either

1. Expect the Twins to have a better season in 2013

2. Grade Gardenhire when you tie his hands with inferior players.

 

 

They could start Gibson in Rochester if a couple of Harden and Pelfrey are ready to go. Hicks will gain nothing if he is ready and you send him to Rochester.

[The Wise One]

I I think everyone would be very happy if Hicks qualified as a Super 2. That would mean he was way to good in spring training to be sent down, and continued to play well.

[Thrylos]

I thought that your really meant something different with the title (Team control and hicks) which would have been more intriguing than this

 

my take has always been to take the best 25 up North. It makes for happy players (i.e. the best players are paid MLB $ vs AAA $ and you build a merit based system) and happy fans (they see the best players in the organization.) That said, the hicks who gave Butera a $700K scholarship have other motives in mind.

[Kwak]

How much do the Twins pay you? It seems to me the whole purpose of your point is to screw players out of pay raises. Will we the fans see any of this--NO! keeping deserving playes in AAA for an extra month serves to degrade the team's April performance, thus making it more difficult to recover lost ground for the rest of the season. Ever since Gardenhire took over I have watched him f-around with the line-up in April digging a hole that the team has to recover. This policy you advocate is fan hating as much as player hating.

[Mchans24]

How much do the Twins pay you? It seems to me the whole purpose of your point is to screw players out of pay raises. Will we the fans see any of this--NO! keeping deserving playes in AAA for an extra month serves to degrade the team's April performance, thus making it more difficult to recover lost ground for the rest of the season. Ever since Gardenhire took over I have watched him f-around with the line-up in April digging a hole that the team has to recover. This policy you advocate is fan hating as much as player hating.

 

Keep them down for the first two weeks to gains a year. There is really not even an argument here. It just makes good business sense. The only way I see you bringing Hicks up to start the year is if he hits .600 with five bombs and 15 stolen bases in spring training. The guy has never played a AAA game!!

[Joe A. Preusser]

This is pretty straight forward:

 

It would be irresponsible NOT to take advantage of an extra year of team control. Two weeks is an insignificant portion of the season.

 

It would also be irresponsible TO mess around with the arbritration deadline. Both because it is inexact and involves guesswork, and because ~The end of June IS a significant portion of the season.

 

Also think of it this way. A year of control of a player is potentially worth quite a bit. One or two million dollars lost in arbritation can only be worth that dollar amount. It's pretty clear where the cost/benifit analysis leads here.

[Seth Stohs]

To get a full year of service time a player needs to spend 172 days out of the 183 days of the season in the big leagues. Those numbers are pretty easy to figure and the trade off - 12 days in the minors or an extra year of team control - is also quite easy to see. Teams and players know well in advance how that is going to shake out and it's really no surprise teams often keep players down to start the year.

 

Couldn't have put it better myself. I don't care about the 4th year of arbitration, but the Twins (and all teams do it wisely) should absolutely care about getting another season rather than an extra couple of weeks.

 

Joe A. Preusser:

It would be irresponsible NOT to take advantage of an extra year of team control. Two weeks is an insignificant portion of the season.

 

Well put. Anything can happen in a two week or a one month sample.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Some well-known examples of guys who spent time in the minors unnecessarily: Evan Longoria (who fell two days short of a year of service time), David Price (eight days short) and Matt Wieters (who spent two months in the minors to put off arbitration by a year).

 

One example of a player that could have spent two weeks in the minors and had free agency (and a $23 million year) pushed back a year: Joe Mauer.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Also think of it this way. A year of control of a player is potentially worth quite a bit. One or two million dollars lost in arbritation can only be worth that dollar amount. It's pretty clear where the cost/benifit analysis leads here.

 

I looked and can't find it now, but there was a big to-do when Matt Wieters was sent down to start the season. I remember reading something that basically said missing arbitration and having free agency pushed back a year cost Wieters somewhere around $20 million over the life of his career. Or in the Orioles case, saved them $20 million over the life of his career.

 

I would guess that Mauer's situation would have been similar.

[darin617]

I think waiting for team control is silly. This team has no veterans at all, and most of the players will not work out. Control is about cost control. If he's awesome, offer him a long term deal next year to lock him up. If he's average, great. If he's bad, whatever. If he is the best OFer on the roster, he should be up here, not in AAA. This team has plenty of money, money is not the issue.

 

If money is not the issue why do we have such a poor starting rotation. The Twins could have become competitive in 2013 with better FA's.

[darin617]

I would wait till may with both, better to save some money and better for the player to get there work in the early going

 

This would be a great idea if the Twins would actually have any intention of spending money.

[Ultima Ratio]

Same poster who creates threads claiming the Twins brass are racist in their signings and Dick Bremer racist for saying Delmon Young was once property of the Twins, now says the Twins are hicks. Isn't that derogatory for poor, white, rural people? Wow, that's racist. Am I offended? No. But then again, I'm not real good at race-baiting.

[The Wise One]

Same poster who creates threads claiming the Twins brass are racist in their signings and Dick Bremer racist for saying Delmon Young was once property of the Twins, now says the Twins are hicks. Isn't that derogatory for poor, white, rural people? Wow, that's racist. Am I offended? No. But then again, I'm not real good at race-baiting.

 

I have seen enough of your posts to believe you might actually be serious.

[Badsmerf]

Keeping them down until mid-May would be an attempt to avoid super-2 status. The way super 2's are designated changed in the last CBA if I'm not mistaken, and it goes by a percentage. So, teams would really have to be good at guessing or keep players down much longer than they should be to avoid super 2. I don't think the Twins were worried about that with Dozier or will focus on it too much in the future. I don't have the exact numbers off the top of my head (maybe Jeremy does), but the main reason to keep guys down will be the arbitration year now, which isn't too difficult.

[jorgenswest]

Keeping them down until mid-May would be an attempt to avoid super-2 status. The way super 2's are designated changed in the last CBA if I'm not mistaken, and it goes by a percentage. So, teams would really have to be good at guessing or keep players down much longer than they should be to avoid super 2. I don't think the Twins were worried about that with Dozier or will focus on it too much in the future. I don't have the exact numbers off the top of my head (maybe Jeremy does), but the main reason to keep guys down will be the arbitration year now, which isn't too difficult.

 

I don't think the Twins should be concerned about super 2. They may spend more money on Aaron Hicks in arbitration, but mid market teams can afford to spend that cost. They should be concerned about service time and free agency. That date is fixed and waiting a few weeks into the season guarantees an extra year before free agency.

[Ultima Ratio]

I have seen enough of your posts to believe you might actually be serious.

 

Tongue-in-cheek only to expose and ridicule race-baiting and hypocrisy. Don't want to hijack the thread beyond this.

[jorgenswest]

Same poster who creates threads claiming the Twins brass are racist in their signings and Dick Bremer racist for saying Delmon Young was once property of the Twins, now says the Twins are hicks. Isn't that derogatory for poor, white, rural people? Wow, that's racist. Am I offended? No. But then again, I'm not real good at race-baiting.

 

I created this thread so the comment must be aimed at me. I will have to be more careful about the words I choose and have edited the unintended heading. I am confused by the other references you attributed to me. I don' t recall participating or being interested in any of those discussions.

[Ultima Ratio]

I created this thread so the comment must be aimed at me. I will have to be more careful about the words I choose and have edited the unintended heading. I am confused by the other references you attributed to me. I don' t recall participating or being interested in any of those discussions.

 

Nope not you. Many on here will know to whom I refer, and remember well. Sorry this was not clear.

 

Edit: What? Don't change the heading! There's nothing in there that's offensive. Don't self-censor.

[kab21]

Gibson should get the Medlen treatment where he stays in extended spring training a couple of extra weeks and then goes to Rochester where he can be limited to 3-5 innings/start. That can't be done in the majors and then there's a better chance that he won't need to get shut down in September. This of course can completely change if hendriks completely sucks or other pitchers get injured in spring training and the only other option is sending out the Manship equivalent.

 

I would also like the same done with Hicks. I'm okay with starting the season with Mastro and bringing Hicks up in May. This gives the team an extra year of team control but gets him Super 2.

 

The significant change in the last CBA is that more players now qualify for Super 2 status and the date is probably late June or maybe even July. Of course the date won't be known for a couple of years. I really don't care if players achieve Super 2 status (it's not my money) but team control is important.

[Mike Sixel]

Why can't Gibson start 3-5 innings in the majors? What prevents that? They will carry 13 pitchers, why not have Gibson give them good innings here, and not in Rochester?

 

Team control is only about money. This team has no contracts to speak of, what makes anyone think they won't be able to afford Hicks if they want to keep him? If he's the best OF, he should be up here. It is disrespectful of ticket holders to do otherwise. People seem pretty content just punting on 2013, as if fan interest will be there no matter how bad (and how little hope for the future the average fan sees) they are next season.

[Seth Stohs]

To be fair, the Twins do not always follow the wisdom of keeping players down for an extra month or two. Joe Mauer was up right away in 2004 right away. Last year, Parmelee and Hendriks both made the opening day roster. So, although I think sending Hicks/Gibson down for a month would be the smart thing to do, I don't think that is what the Twins will do if they go out and win a job in spring training (which of course is crazy because spring training stats mean so little).

[old nurse]

Buxton, Arcia, Kepler and Benson. Sano or Rosario if they don't work out in the infield. The pipeline to the outfield is pretty full. One less year of team control of Hicks is not going to hurt the future if he is ready now.