Eddie Rosario May Bring a Case of Deja Vu to the Twins

[Nate Palmer]

Eddie Rosario is one of the hot discussion topics this offseason for the Minnesota Twins. The discussion surrounding him isn't necessarily a new one for the Twins organization. Following 2005, Terry Ryan and the Twins had a similar one surrounding outfielder Jacque Jones.While payroll discussions dominate every Minnesota Twins offseason. It seems Eddie Rosario comes in as a close second in recent years when it comes to offseason conversation starters. The Puerto Rican has the unique ability of polarizing the baseball traditionalists against the more analytic concerned fans like no other.

 

While Rosario continues to be one of the most popular players on the Twins roster. He faces an offseason that could see him jettisoned in favor of a number of cheaper and younger outfielders. The crazy thing is, in a day before analytics, the Twins have had to essentially make this decision before. Was a popular, good hitting outfielder with some defensive limitations and a free swinging spirit worth the money it would take to keep him around?

 

It was 2005 and the Terry Ryan led Twins had just finished 3rd in the AL Central after going 83-79. Jacque Jones was set to be a free agent. The Twins had to decide if the fan favorite was worth the money it would take to keep him around. That is the same question facing Falvey and Levine this offseason and the cases for both players is eerily similar.

 

For starters, here are the two outfielders’ career numbers:

 

Download attachment: Nate1.png

 

Almost identical. Jones was slightly better at getting on base, while Rosario has displayed slightly more power. All in all, very similar.

 

Both players also struggled to take walks until they both saw an uptick in their walk rates right before the offseason in question.

 

Download attachment: Nate2.png

 

Defensively, both could in theory play center field but had elite defensive center fielders lining up next to them (Torii Hunter and Byron Buxton). Ultimately, neither versions of the Twins would have wanted Rosario or Jones to line up in center too often. Their defensive WAR was very similar with Jones through his first seven seasons sitting at -1.3 and Rosario through his first six at -1.5 defensive WAR.

 

Defensive analytics are alway a bit tricky to navigate. Interestingly, while the two are similar in defensive WAR, DRS favors Rosario considerably.

 

Download attachment: Nate3.png

 

In his pre-analytic world, Jones was beloved with little questioning of his abilities in comparison to the critiques that Rosario goes up against. Now it is worth mentioning that after the Twins decided not to offer more than a one year deal to Jones, his career took a considerable dip with the Cubs.

 

Meanwhile the 2006 Twins were able to field a team that would go on to take first in the AL Central. They moved Michael Cuddyer more permanently to the outfield and weathered a Shannon Stewart injury by playing Lew Ford in left and giving Jason Kubel more DH at-bats. The 2006 team was able to find success and the 2021 Twins, even without any moves, looks much better prepared to withstand losing their veteran outfielder with all the young outfield talent seemingly waiting in the wings.

 

If there is a case to signing Rosario that differentiates him from Jones it is his charisma. Rosario has that fire and energy that while the going is good seems to energize a squad. With Cruz potentially leaving and Josh Donaldson seemingly always a wrong step away from that calf acting up, maybe that charisma quality is worth enough to consider a different path for Rosario than the one taken with Jones.

 

Should the Twins follow the Jones route with a similar player in Rosario or should it be a priority to tender or even extend Rosario this offseason?

 

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[dbminn]

For me, this is not the greatest comparison. Jacques Jones was 31 when he finished his time with the Twins. His final two seasons, 2004 and 2005, Jones produced a combined 0.3 WAR. Eddie was at the full-season equivalent of 2.5 WAR last year. 

 

 

[T_J]

Side note... ads here are getting a bit crazy. Can a fella buy an ad free subscription? MLBTRADERUMORS.COM offers that option for $30 a year and I'd be really happy to have that option here.

[High heat]

Putting salary aside I believe you would get more production out of Kirilloff then Rosario. Rosario's defense has gotten pretty terrible other then having a big arm.  He runs the bases poorly and his overall speed has fallen off a cliff. 

 

The guy hits some big homeruns and provides so nice energy but its time to move on to a guy who players solid defense, works counts, has great on base skill, has gap power to all fields. 

[mikelink45]

Big hit Eddie got more key runners home than any of the bats other than Cruz.  I know he will be gone, but I think he will be missed. 

[Ginsamax]

I do understand that Kiriloff will probably be as good or better than Rosario but I think that they will miss him and that the Twins will be worse in his absence. It would be great if they kept him and brought up Kiriloff for a 4 OF rotation sort of situation.

[mnfireman]

 

Side note... ads here are getting a bit crazy. Can a fella buy an ad free subscription? MLBTRADERUMORS.COM offers that option for $30 a year and I'd be really happy to have that option here.

 

Switch your browser to Brave, faster and no ads.

[rv78]

For the last time, move on from Eddie.

He's become too expensive.

His defense is not what it used to be.

He likes throwing to the wrong base.

He swings and misses at too many pitches above his head.

He runs the bases with reckless abandon.

There are at least 3 other CHEAPER prospects waiting for their chance to play, that will probably play SMARTER than Eddie. (Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker).

 

[Seth Stohs]

I think there are a lot of similarities between Jacque Jones and Eddie Rosario...

 

I also think that the advent of social media and the much more readily available advanced metrics today than in 2015 has altered the perception that most fans have. 

 

Is that a fair statement?

[rdehring]

I understand that there are a lot of reasons calling for the Twins to move on from Rosario. Yet, I question those who say he isn't good defensively or on the bases. Yes, he makes some boneheaded plays defensively, but they are offset by brilliant plays that once in awhile wins a big game. I am guessing that the wins equal losses caused by his defensive mistakes.

 

On the bases, I don't see a poor baserunner, rather, an aggressive one. Yes, there will be a few outs. But aren't they more than offset by all the times he takes that extra base?

 

On the other hand, a growing salary with the expected arrival of Kirilloff seems to make his departure the smart move. But is it? I could see the Twins using Kirilloff more at first base while being available to fill in at either corner outfield spot as an injury replacement. I guess my point is that you don't have to get rid of Rosario to fit Kirilloff into a 2021 roster. And I for one won't be surprised if we see the Twins announce an agreement with Eddie on or before December 2, even if it is a one or two year deal.

[Shaitan]

Analytics definitely existed in 2005.

 

This is interesting, if only because the two players somehow do remind me of each other -- I think it's more about the spark their personalities provide to the clubhouse though, which is pretty irrelevant to this discussion and completely subjective.

[mikelink45]

I had so much to say that I created a blog out of my response - 

https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/13740-eddie-or-miguel-or-byron-or-max-you-choose/

 

 

Not sure if this is allowed, but I hope you will check out my comparison of the four six year players who rose to the majors together.  

 

[Greglw3]

 

Putting salary aside I believe you would get more production out of Kirilloff then Rosario. Rosario's defense has gotten pretty terrible other then having a big arm.  He runs the bases poorly and his overall speed has fallen off a cliff. 

 

The guy hits some big homeruns and provides so nice energy but its time to move on to a guy who players solid defense, works counts, has great on base skill, has gap power to all fields. 

I don’t think Rosario’s defense is terrible. After the ground rule play, he caught everything hit to him or within range. We will disagree on his offense. I’m not a SABR guy. I actually look at how he impacts games and he brings a lot of positives with his HR’s, team leading RBI two years in a row (for 120+ years RBIs were very significant). Anyway, I would sign him to a 3 year deal. Put Kirriloff in RF and try to sign a better backup for Buxton that Cave or Wade who are not acceptable. Kepler would be the 4th or 5th OF and needs to prove himself again as his career batting average is not good. Thet also need backup for Sano that can step in and hit respectably. Plus backup for Donaldson, someone not on the current roster. I think Nick Gordon could be a real valuable piece for 2021 although I’m afraid I see another abbreviated season with Covid expected to be a force until 2022. Definitely re-sign Cruz.

[Greglw3]

 

 

I had so much to say that I created a blog out of my response - 

https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/13740-eddie-or-miguel-or-byron-or-max-you-choose/

 

 

Not sure if this is allowed, but I hope you will check out my comparison of the four six year players who rose to the majors together.  

 

You nailed it. Eddie is the MVP of that group, Kepler the worst, IMO.

[wabene]

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[wabene]

I understand that there are a lot of reasons calling for the Twins to move on from Rosario. Yet, I question those who say he isn't good defensively or on the bases. Yes, he makes some boneheaded plays defensively, but they are offset by brilliant plays that once in awhile wins a big game. I am guessing that the wins equal losses caused by his defensive mistakes.

 

On the bases, I don't see a poor baserunner, rather, an aggressive one. Yes, there will be a few outs. But aren't they more than offset by all the times he takes that extra base?

 

On the other hand, a growing salary with the expected arrival of Kirilloff seems to make his departure the smart move. But is it? I could see the Twins using Kirilloff more at first base while being available to fill in at either corner outfield spot as an injury replacement. I guess my point is that you don't have to get rid of Rosario to fit Kirilloff into a 2021 roster. And I for one won't be surprised if we see the Twins announce an agreement with Eddie on or before December 2, even if it is a one or two year deal.

Isn't this the last year of arb for Eddie? If so I'm not sure signing him for 2 years is a good idea unless it's super team friendly. I do see the argument for keeping him and let Kirloff rotate as the 4th instead of Cave. Last year should prove the importance of depth so until enough youngsters prove it...

[Trov]

I have also made similar comparisons between the two.  Mainly in the change in approach to walk more, but resulted in dip in other numbers really making the great walks an overall negative for the player hitting.  I did not compare the defense like you did but even more crazy how much they line up.  I have a feeling both will have a similar career after Twins.  Eddie will find a team but he will not get long term deal.