Article: Pitching Central

[Nick Nelson]

This strikes me as an agenda-driven article. What has Jeremy Guthrie done to put him above Vance Worley at 34 years old? How do you put Trevor Bauer up there when he's pitched like 3 innings in the majors? And if Bauer's way up there, why ignore Meyer and May? Wade Davis? Maybe if you really like relievers. Hell, let's put Glen Perkins back in the rotation and call it a win. And if we can rank Wade Davis that high, why not Rich Harden? He's probably a reliever too.

I ranked the players based on accomplishment, or in Bauer's case I ranked him high because he's one of the game's elite pitching prospects. Sorry, Meyer and May just aren't at that level and are unlikely to figure into the 2013 picture significantly. Guthrie has been a workhorse and has survived in the AL East. Davis has more of an MLB track record than Worley and has survived in the AL East. Santana has been very good in two of the last three years and has averaged 209 innings during that span.

 

Worley has a chance to be a solid pitcher, but he hasn't thrown 140 innings in an MLB season and he's coming off a pretty mediocre campaign in the NL that ended with elbow surgery. I don't think he's significantly different than many of the guys I placed above him but he just hasn't done enough yet. I wouldn't argue if you want to move him up a spot or two but the point is that, as the premier pitching acquisitioin of the offseason, he just doesn't stack up very well against the rest of the division.

 

Guthrie is not good at all but he is better than Correia and is going to provide 180-210 innings of 4.5 ERA. Worley is clearly better than that, though.

Let's see Worley actually throw 180 innings at any level before we make that assumption.

 

The time to pay market prices for mediocre or mid-tier pitching should have never been this year for the Twins.

I disagree wholeheartedly. I think this is exactly the time to do it. They lack even mid-tier caliber pitching and they have plenty of extra money this year and next. Just because you're not realistically contending for a championship doesn't mean you shouldn't try and put a respectable product on the field.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How do you know that? Is there some inside information you have that I'm not privy to?

 

What has ever given an indication that the Twins carry over payroll savings from previous years into the following seasons?

[Nick Nelson]

But the point of Nick's post is that, he thinks that along with thinking long-term, enough care needs to be given to 2013 to maintain a fan base. Frankly, I won't (and most of you who come to sites like this) miss a game on TV regardless of if they win 100 or lose 110, but I know there are a lot of fair-weather fans out there and the Twins are in jeopardy of losing them.

 

I'm sure I'll watch all the games too, but if they're out of it by the end of May again I'll probably get out to Target Field about half as many times as I might have otherwise. As much as I love the summer ballpark experience, it's tough to get amped up to go see a last-place team get throttled, and it's also tough to justify forking over a bunch of money to an organization that doesn't seem all that interested in trying to promptly turn around an abhorrent two-year stretch. The message being sent to fans by scraping the bargain bin for pitching and reverting nearly to Metrodome payroll levels is insulting.

[snepp]

How do you know that? Is there some inside information you have that I'm not privy to?

 

The Twins brass has been on record in that past that budget "saved" in one year will not be rolled forward to future years.

[edavis0308]

The Twins brass has been on record in that past that budget "saved" in one year will not be rolled forward to future years.

 

Why would they do that? They are very loyal to their fan base!!! ........................

[Shane Wahl]

I don't understand the idea of not signing a good pitcher to three years right now. One such pitcher makes the rotation look dramatically better in 2013, the team should be better in 2014 and could be great by 2015 . . . and quality pitching would be a part of that, and the payroll is going to drop significantly starting next year.

 

Spending money on quality pitching can always lead to deadline trades for prospects. Maybe Marcum wants a one-year deal to improve his chances for a bigger contract after next season. The Twins have $10 million devoted to Blackburn and Correia, for the love of god. Why not spend $10 million to sign a good pitcher who might be tradeable for good value in the season?

[70charger]

The Twins brass has been on record in that past that budget "saved" in one year will not be rolled forward to future years.

 

My original question wasn't meant to be confrontational, although tones are filtered out on teh internets. I'm legitimately curious if the only evidence is "well, they haven't done it before!" or if there is some real evidence.

 

You've mentioned that they've been on record saying this. Do you have a cite?

[JB_Iowa]

You've mentioned that they've been on record saying this. Do you have a cite?

 

It is very hard to go back and find cites for these policies but my recollection is that it has come up in the context of back-loading (or front-loading) contracts ... especially when the Mauer contract was announced. My recollection is that the Twins made it very clear that they do business on an annual cash basis. If I felt that it was important to have a specific cite, that's where I would start looking.

[snepp]

I'll see if I can find them. We had a pretty lengthy discussion about the general topic of revenues/budgets/etc on BYTO a few years back and those type of things were cited in it.

[ALessKosherScott]

The potentially good news is that there are still a few names on the market that would rank respectably on the list above and would considerably improve the grade of the Twins' offseason. These include Shaun Marcum, Kyle Lohse and Joe Saunders, but the crop is dwindling.

 

It's unclear whether Terry Ryan is interested in legitimately pursuing any of these players. If he doesn't, it will be difficult to look at his offseason as anything short of a failure

 

Right but let's be honest. Even with the aggressive approach to rebuilding a rotation, Kansas City is still behind the Tigers and White Sox in terms of pitching. What the Twins needed to do wasn't going to be done in one year unless Ryan developed a Flex Capacitor and brought back Johan Santana v.2004. I would've liked the Twins to have made a move for Bauer. But I like Worley's chances to be a Doug Fister type, and Meyer and May are both steps in the right direction giving us a glimmer of hope. The next step is to stop grabbing college relievers with mechanical issues in the early rounds of the draft, have some patience with Hendriks and Gibson when they have their growing pains, and to sell high on Scott Diamond if he has another good year instead of giving him a Blackburn deal.

 

I wouldn't mind it if they signed Shaun Marcum. But that isn't going to make or break the offseason. What needs to happen is for the front office to bring more Meyers and Mays into the system for things to be a success.

[Mike Sixel]

I will never understand the crowd that says if you cannot fix it all, you should not fix any of it. The only thing not spending money this year does is decrease attendance. Terry Ryan is the same guy he always has been. There is zero evidence otherwise.

[ALessKosherScott]

I will never understand the crowd that says if you cannot fix it all, you should not fix any of it. The only thing not spending money this year does is decrease attendance. Terry Ryan is the same guy he always has been. There is zero evidence otherwise.

 

Like I said, Worley, Meyer and May are a start in the right direction. I just don't buy that shooting for 76 wins instead of 73 is going to have that big an affect on attendance one way or the other. Even if we gutted the farm system to get Shields, it wouldn't have made that big a difference.

[Mike Sixel]

Not one person said to trade prospects ....nice strawman. They have money. They are not spending it. And again, you make the argument not to improve the team at all, unless they ac win it all. Had they replaced their worst 60 starts with two league average or better pitchers, the team is more than 3 games better. Signing a legit pitcher or two is not only about this year.

[PseudoSABR]

I mean which of these pitchers should we have signed? And really how many more wins does that player provide over Correa/Pelfry/Harden?

[jmlease1]

I don't really disagree with Nick's premise here, but this list is a little deceptive by including teams re-signing their own guy. I mean, the ChiSox bringing back Peavy didn't ADD anything to their club or the division; that's a status quo move. A good one for them to be sure, but if the idea is to look at how the Twins have improved their pitching in comparison to the other teams, keeping in the returning free agents distorts the picture somewhat.

 

One of the Twins biggest moves to improve the rotation is addition by subtraction. That's important too, but it's hard to get excited about. But if you pull Sanchez & Peavy off this list, you get a better picture don't you think? (Sanchez is arguable since he didn't spend a full season in Detroit)

 

I would very much like the Twins to sign Marcum, who would make this list look better for the Twins.

[70charger]

I mean which of these pitchers should we have signed? And really how many more wins does that player provide over Correa/Pelfry/Harden?

 

That's an interesting question. If you average out Anibal Sanchez's last three years and compare them to Kevin Correia's last three years, Sanchez averages 3.1 WAR and 30 more innings pitched. Correia averages -0.7 WAR and 30 fewer innings pitched. Sanchez is paid $16 million per year, Correia an average of $5 million per year.

 

I know better than to make a comment on this, but I figured I'd throw it out there.

[ALessKosherScott]

Not one person said to trade prospects ....nice strawman. They have money. They are not spending it. And again, you make the argument not to improve the team at all, unless they ac win it all. Had they replaced their worst 60 starts with two league average or better pitchers, the team is more than 3 games better. Signing a legit pitcher or two is not only about this year.

 

You could shave 100 runs allowed off last year's staff and still have a mediocre team. And the amount of attendance you get if you're in third place isn't really that much greater than what you get in fifth, just ask the mid-90s Twins. It's going to take more than Marcum to turn around the apathy the Twins are getting. And I believe the "strawman" point is that it's going to take more than even Shields.

[TheLeviathan]

So we've gone from big talk of being a .500+ team next year with things going right to defending an offseason that was pretty much 100% rebuilding? Some of you have to get off the defense of the team a little bit here. One can criticize and still be a supportive fan.

 

This team scrooged on a couple players (Baker's option year, Marcum thus far, even Blanton) and as a result this team is clearly spinning the wheels. I'll still pay attention, but it's fair to criticize a team that was forward in declaring it's intent to improve that did the exact opposite with significant financial room to play with.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Good post, Nick. Your list quantifies what we've been reading, feeling, hearing. The competition in the Central Division have all improved their stable of starting pitchers. The Twin's cellar dwelling staff roster lags behind. The $30 million payroll savings is the other piece. Thanks for connecting the dots.

[johnnydakota]

The time to pay market prices for mediocre or mid-tier pitching should have never been this year for the Twins. I don't find KC's moves at all enviable.

 

As charger suggests, the article is totally weighted with the premise that the Twins some how missed the boat...

 

The twins did miss the boat and very soon ownership and the fronty office will be claiming with poor attendance they can not compete for any free agents...yes it is very apperent that Ryan is once again looking for an end of the year bonus for cutting payroll, If jipppy Pohlad had come out and said , look we are in a rebuilding stage and we are cutting ticket prices 20%, I would have been happy to see joe and justin traded to texas and willingham being traded to seattle.But what did we get spoon fed?

Money isnt an issue we have never turned down any figure our general asked for...= We just fire our general or reasign them if they want to spend money, in my opinion , Terry ryan is out of his eliment , and needs to return to being a cross checking scout.Ryan was very good at this job ,and the game has out grown him since (or before in my opinion) he stepped down the last time.If we get lucky this year it is posible to see an improvement to 75 win season , but if we continue with no luck, i can see 103 loss season on the horizion for OUR twins...yes they belong to us, we have cheered for them ,cried for them and in my case i was beat with a leather shaving strap because i jumped up and down on the couch when rod stole home, we have paid for them in finacing there new shiny stadium and in having an average 3 million + fans since target field has opened...ownership has failed us and they just dont care....

[old nurse]

Not one person said to trade prospects ....nice strawman. They have money. They are not spending it. And again, you make the argument not to improve the team at all, unless they ac win it all. Had they replaced their worst 60 starts with two league average or better pitchers, the team is more than 3 games better. Signing a legit pitcher or two is not only about this year.

Liriano 3-10 and Blackburn 5-9 made the second and third most starts for the Twins. Middle of the pack on the list above are Guthrie and Santana. 6-10, 9-13 respectively. 41 starts to 63. So add Devries 5-5 and 17 starts and you have 3 more wins. Woo hoo.

[old nurse]

That's an interesting question. If you average out Anibal Sanchez's last three years and compare them to Kevin Correia's last three years, Sanchez averages 3.1 WAR and 30 more innings pitched. Correia averages -0.7 WAR and 30 fewer innings pitched. Sanchez is paid $16 million per year, Correia an average of $5 million per year.

 

I know better than to make a comment on this, but I figured I'd throw it out there.

 

The theoretical question then would be how many more million per year would have it took to get a Sanchez? More than likely well over 2 million as you can't say Detroit wouldn't have gone higher.

[Seth Stohs]

Although I'm more for the long-term view, I would have had no problem with them giving Jackson four years or Sanchez five years. I think they will develop in 2013 and hopefully start that move up toward contending in 2014 and contend in 2015... Those younger free agent types will still be a big part of that. I wouldn't be in favor of giving big money to someone like Ryan Dempster since he'd older and wouldn't be around for the good times. His value would be in a potential trade. (my opinions, of course)

[PseudoSABR]

Wouldn't it make more sense to invest in 2014 or 2015's versions of Jackson and Sanchez?

[PseudoSABR]

I mean which of these pitchers should we have signed? And really how many more wins does that player provide over Correa/Pelfry/Harden?

Look at all the people that answered these questions! I think it tells us something.

[Nick Nelson]

Liriano 3-10 and Blackburn 5-9 made the second and third most starts for the Twins. Middle of the pack on the list above are Guthrie and Santana. 6-10, 9-13 respectively. 41 starts to 63. So add Devries 5-5 and 17 starts and you have 3 more wins. Woo hoo.

Are you being serious? Using W/L record as a literal translation for how much a pitcher adds? That's... wow.

 

Wouldn't it make more sense to invest in 2014 or 2015's versions of Jackson and Sanchez?

You think the Twins are going to invest in free agent pitching next year, when prices only continue to inflate as the new TV revenue actually hits? Most of the usual big-market suspects like the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers and Phillies have actually been pretty quiet this offseason. If the Twins are unwilling to "overpay" for quality talent right now, just wait until next winter. There's a good chance many of these goofy contracts will look downright reasonable in a year.

 

Look at all the people that answered these questions! I think it tells us something.

It tells us that people don't want to get into these silly breakdowns of how many theoretical wins a player adds. It misses the point. As I said in the post, there's a difference between contending and making an effort to compete. I don't think many expect the former but we should all absolutely expect the latter, and we haven't gotten it. I'm all for the rebuilding approach but putting such a minimal effort into getting a decent product on the field in the meantime is inexcusable.

[DaveW]

The main problem with giving Edwin Jackson a large contract over 4 years is that he just really isn't that good. Career 4.40 ERA (half of which were in the NL) 4.10 ERA over the past 3 years (mostly spent in the NL)

 

I mean, he would be nice to have in the rotation, but in reality the dude is no better then a #4 for a competitive team. I'd rather the Twins save that money for 2014 for a pitcher who actually has the potential to be a front end guy instead of a back end rotation guy.

 

I am dissapointed they didn't take a larger run at Sancez though....but he didn't exactly come cheap anyways.

 

I still maintain Marcum is the smart option at this point IF he can stay healthy he has a really nice chance to out preform both of Sanchez and Jackson for a much cheaper deal (see: 2 years/14-18 mil)

[DaveW]

As I said in the post, there's a difference between contending and making an effort to compete. I don't think many expect the former but we should all absolutely expect the latter, and we haven't gotten it. I'm all for the rebuilding approach but putting such a minimal effort into getting a decent product on the field in the meantime is inexcusable.

The off-season isn't close to being over dude, plenty of quality players still remain on the FA and trade markets. If we roll into pitchers and catchers reporting and this is the roster we have, I will agree. Until then I am going to give Ryan the benefit of the doubt, since for the most part in his time as a GM he has done a pretty damn good job!

[old nurse]

Are you being serious? Using W/L record as a literal translation for how much a pitcher adds? That's... wow.

 

 

.

No I wasn't. But WAR does not predict team success either. It tells you have added a good player. The result of good play may leads to wins, but it takes a whole team to do that. He said to add two players with a WAR of 3 would lead to wins. See the 2009 KC Royals. Winners of 65 games and had two pitchers of high WAR, Grienke and Bannister. The problem in trying to add 2 pitchers with WAR above 3 is that there are not that many players who are consistently above three. The only way the Twins could have added two of them is if two of Dempster, Sanchez, Jackson, or Haren had the same agent and the Twins kidnapped him. Add quality, or add potential for quality as they have done. The problem with a team with so many question marks at this time is to develop high quality players or develop the quality from what others did not see. That takes time. When you have only a couple needs, it is easier to fill.

 

You said "There's a good chance many of these goofy contracts will look downright reasonable in a year." So $5M. for Correia will be a bargain? (No no, not serious)

[Fire Dan Gladden]

But the point of Nick's post is that, he thinks that along with thinking long-term, enough care needs to be given to 2013 to maintain a fan base. Frankly, I won't (and most of you who come to sites like this) miss a game on TV regardless of if they win 100 or lose 110, but I know there are a lot of fair-weather fans out there and the Twins are in jeopardy of losing them.

 

Fair weather fans will jump ship at the earliest convenience. They will also come back at the earliest convenience. I do not worry about them. Long term fans that can't wheather low points are not true long term fans.