Updated Fangraphs ratings

[Mike Sixel]

Here you go

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-43-prospects-minnesota-twins/

[Mike Sixel]

Still some doubt about Lewis at short.... Jeffers and Duran up. Gordon waaaaaaaaay down. Lanarch ahead of Kiriloff for now.

[BrianTrottier]

 

Still some doubt about Lewis at short.... Jeffers and Duran up. Gordon waaaaaaaaay down. Lanarch ahead of Kiriloff for now.

They're also listing Kirilloff as a first baseman.

[Mike Sixel]

They're also listing Kirilloff as a first baseman.

Which I believe the Twins said last year was possible, even likely. No real surprise I don't think

[Cory Engelhardt]

Last year he played 49 games in the outfield, and 35 at 1B. When he is up the in the majors he certainly could do both, which isn't a bad thing.

[Dman]

I really like how fangraphs rates players as it usually is more in line with how I think they should be rated.  Larnach over Kirilloff is a bold move but I think warranted.  They both have great hit tools and their defensive value is about the same as well.  I think Larnach has a more diverse approach at the plate so that puts him ahead for me as well.

 

Nice to see Duran, Graterol and Balazovich all with 50 grades and rated 4,5 and 6.  These guys are our future we need them to succeed so seeing them rated highly is very encouraging to me.

 

I was surprised they had Celestino at number 10.  I know he came along well with the bat this season and is a good defender but I didn't see him jumping up quite that high. Also surprised to see Miranda at 12.  He has really good contact skills but seemed to struggle at high A if you ask me.  Also not sure he plays great defense.  I would have had him lower but might have to rethink that after they put him this high.

 

Nice to see Sands and Colina at 16 and 17.  They both have good potential to be 5th starters or good out of the pen.  Maybe more if something clicks.

 

Was happy to see Javier and Rooker moved down the list.  Rooker is getting older has K issues and is not a great defender.  I think is better placed at 18.  I mean his power is legit and power rules but he needs to improve his OBP to move up higher on the list if you ask me.  Javier had a terrible year and looked lost at the plate.  His defense didn't look much better. He needed to be moved down.

 

I am a little surprised they had Raley so low.  I know he is older and has his own K issues but he appears to be a good defender and was off to a good start in AAA last year.  Fangraphs has never been real high on Raley as they don't like his swing calling it too stiff but he has gotten decent results thus far.  I thought he deserved at least a 40 rating.

 

Also surprised by Ober.  He has been dominant throughout his entire minors carreer and they barely have him at 41. I get that he doesn't have a big fastball but he has 4 pitches he can use effectively and his results speak for themselves.  He is older and been injured a fair bit so maybe that plays into it, but this feels too low for him IMO.

 

Same thing for Vallimont.  Granted I don't know a ton about the guy as we just got him, but his K rate has been good and my understanding is he has a good fastball and good movement on his pitches. I though he would be bottom 20's or upper 30's for sure but they barely have him cracking the top 40. 

 

Even with some of the surprises it is still a good list.  Nice to see some pitchers moving into the upper spots inside the top 10 with a nice group in the top 20.  Here's hoping for some break throughs this coming year.

[amjgt]

Not even a mention of Randy Dobnak, who, as best I can tell, is still rookie eligible. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not even a mention of Randy Dobnak, who, as best I can tell, is still rookie eligible. 

 

It does seem odd. I'll tweet and ask, but not expecting a reply....

[amjgt]

 

It does seem odd. I'll tweet and ask, but not expecting a reply....

 

I mean, even if you're crazy low on him, you still need to mention him in "Depth Starters" right?

[AceWrigley]

Tell Fangraphs . . . do not dis the Dobnak.

[In My La Z boy]

Thanks for this link Mike. Reading through these reminds me of the crapshoot these prospects really are. Count me as disappointed if we don't trade some of them for starting pitching this winter. Give me a major league proven quality starter, and I'll give you some of these prospects. After flailing in free agency, this must be the plan?

[Otwins]

The 2020 expected arrival dates were nice to see on Duran and Colina. Thanks for posting the link

[nicksaviking]

Interesting that they have Jeffers sticking at catcher but Lewis and Kirilloff moving. I love the rankings, FG in particular, but I don't like the positional projections because in the end it's rarely about where the player is best at but instead where the team needs them most.

[amjgt]

 

Interesting that they have Jeffers sticking at catcher but Lewis and Kirilloff moving. I love the rankings, FG in particular, but I don't like the positional projections because in the end it's rarely about where the player is best at but instead where the team needs them most.

 

I think they justified all three of those positional designations in the writeups for those players.

[dbminn]

It's a solid group of prospects. I hope the top 10 can have a healthier year than last season.

[The Wise One]

They do not expect Dobnack to match his last year’s performance. They like strikeout guys, not ground ball guys. Still the projection models have him over 1 war. That would protect well over 40 for FV

[nicksaviking]

 

I think they justified all three of those positional designations in the writeups for those players.

 

I read them, I just don't think defensive speculation is based on much more than drawing a line in the sand at Average. Anyone below Average is said to move positions, even though by definition, half of the league is below average at their positions.

 

Not a big deal, I just think that the positional prognosticating is perhaps the least accurate part of the evaluation, since unless the player is absolutely brutal, he will likely be playing where the team needs him most.

[nicksaviking]

 

They do not expect Dobnack to match his last year’s performance. They like strikeout guys, not ground ball guys. Still the projection models have him over 1 war. That would protect well over 40 for FV

 

I do too, but sinker aside, it's hard to see the justification for the soft tossing Devin Smeltzer over a guy with better velocity and stuff in Dobnak.

[gunnarthor]

A few things jumped out at me 

 

• Higher on Thorpe than I thought.
• I've been low on Jeffers for a bit but it's really nice seeing him this high.
• A note about Celistino that was worth seeing "he hits the ball hard with consistency, a pervasive trait in this system."
• Rooker fell a lot more than I thought he should
• They think Lewin Diaz, whom we traded, could be a top 100 prospect.

[amjgt]

I do too, but sinker aside, it's hard to see the justification for the soft tossing Devin Smeltzer over a guy with better velocity and stuff in Dobnak.

It’s impossible to justify not even having him on the depth starters. Impossible. They should’ve either ignored the question or been like “whoops we overlooked him because he started a playoff game and we assumed he wasn’t still rookie eligible.”

[drivlikejehu]

I didn't see where they actually addressed Dobnak? Did they actually respond or is it just speculation? Seems like a mistake to me, unintentional I mean.

[Mike Sixel]

Jim Leyland Palmer
12:52 Larnach & Kirilloff flipped on your recent MIN list. Do you think think most of the league is with you guys on this shift or do most people still value Kirlloff's perceived higher upside over Larnach's more steady profile?

AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53 Now that Kirilloff is more 1B and the scorching performance slowed down a bit, Larnach's impact power is a more compelling separator, although they should be close to each other on the top 100

 

Twins list pt 2
1:17 no love for randy dobnak after posting a 2.90 FIP and a 52% GB rate?

 

AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:17 He's a 35

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-12-18-19/

[twinkiesfan11]

 

Jim Leyland Palmer
12:52 Larnach & Kirilloff flipped on your recent MIN list. Do you think think most of the league is with you guys on this shift or do most people still value Kirlloff's perceived higher upside over Larnach's more steady profile?

AvatarKiley McDaniel
12:53 Now that Kirilloff is more 1B and the scorching performance slowed down a bit, Larnach's impact power is a more compelling separator, although they should be close to each other on the top 100

 

Twins list pt 2
1:17 no love for randy dobnak after posting a 2.90 FIP and a 52% GB rate?

 

AvatarKiley McDaniel
1:17 He's a 35

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-12-18-19/

AvatarKiley McDaniel is a 35

[clutterheart]

They're not so high on Maciel.

 

I would've thought a high A 20 year old CF'er with good speed and decent bat skills would rate higher.

[Mr. Brooks]

They're not so high on Maciel.

 

I would've thought a high A 20 year old CF'er with good speed and decent bat skills would rate higher.

They must not agree about the bat skills.

From the write up:

 

"Maciel is a 70 runner but we don’t see an offensive impact enabling anything more than a fifth outfielder there."

[goulik]

They must not agree about the bat skills.

From the write up:

"Maciel is a 70 runner but we don’t see an offensive impact enabling anything more than a fifth outfielder there."

ThT is the worst scouting report I have heard on him. Wow, I sure hope they are proven wrong.

[jorgenswest]

Larnach’s value has never been higher. He might be the best sell high candidate in the organization.

 

Ray? Boyd? Gray?

 

One of those teams might see him as the key piece in a deal for their established pitching.

[MMMordabito]

These lists ....

 

I wonder if the FO actually attempted to move Gordon, Gonsalves or Romero at any point.  I guess Romero still has a prayer. Gonsalves is, of course, already gone. Even if Gordon eventually hits the show, his MO has been to struggle after a promotion or peter out in the second half.  This isn't the year to allow for that.

[LimestoneBaggy]

I'll go on record that I do not believe Larnach is better than Kirilloff. That being said, if he ends up being better, I'll be pretty happy with that combo of players. 

[Dman]

 

I'll go on record that I do not believe Larnach is better than Kirilloff. That being said, if he ends up being better, I'll be pretty happy with that combo of players. 

 

I think as a pure hitter Kirilloff has the sweeter swing but for patience and better eye at the plate I give the nod to Larnach.  Getting on base more and working to get better pitches to hit lead me to believe Larnach has the overall advantage right now.  They are pretty close so could come down to what you prefer in a hitter.